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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    I was thinking about that too. They lose someone: "Woe is us!" They lose no one: "Woe is really us!"
  2. ashbury
    Rule-5 guys invariably earn Major League minimum salary. So had the Twins filled up their 4 open spots on the 40-man this way, we'd be using that as evidence of miserliness instead.
  3. ashbury
    He'd better not be key to the FO's offseason planning. They should find a solution like MAT was in 2023, and then treat any CF contributions from Buxton as gravy.
  4. ashbury
    The long-rumored move to Nashville is happening. Target Field will be taken apart and shipped on a fleet of flatbed trucks headed for Tennessee. Ultimate impact on the Minnesota Twins still TBD. They are looking at existing facilities in Anoka.
  5. ashbury
    Here's an explanation (from 2019 but it's probably nearly the same today): https://www.milb.com/news/the-rule-5-draft-explained-311955076 Basically, after the major league phase is completed, each team can protect 38 more players in the minors. The same rules of eligibility (number of seasons played, depending on age when they started) apply, so no recently-drafted or recently-signed prospects can be drafted in either of the phases.
  6. ashbury
    Not nearly as uneven (or downright paradoxical) as the raw stats would indicate. His BABIP at AA was absurdly low. Seemingly the Twins FO took that into account and promoted him to AAA anyway, where he suddenly reversed his BABIP to a likely unsustainably high value. His real potential is probably somewhere in between and if you deduct a factor for what he would do if promoted another level higher to the majors, it's not totally surprising no one took a flyer on him.
  7. ashbury
    Twins take no one, lose no one, in the major league portion of the draft. They've taken a pitcher and catcher in the minor league phases, but these usually are just organizational fill.
  8. ashbury
    Look at the nonsensical contracts being handed out. Why aren't we being aggressive too?
  9. ashbury
    I think of it as the GM's "you're wasting your time and mine" list. More succinct ways to state that have already been rejected or would violate site standards.
  10. ashbury
    Can Keirsey play in the majors? Probably. Can he lock down a 4th outfielder role? Uncertain. Would he do as well as MAT in extended duty in CF in case of injury to the starter? IMO no, either with the glove or with the bat. Hard to envision another team investing a 26-man slot on that kind of ceiling.
  11. ashbury
    Either way it hasn't been too useful IMO.
  12. ashbury
    Bold prediction there, or maybe a hawt taek, since I think the draft is being held on Wednesday.
  13. ashbury
    This thread predictably became a discussion of semantics of a word in the headline rather than baseball.
  14. ashbury
    To paraphrase Oscar Wilde only slightly, the cynic is one who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing, while the sentimentalist is one who sees an absurd value in everything and doesn't know the market price of any single thing. We need the Twins' leadership, from owners on down, to be somewhere in the happy medium between these two extremes, neither cynical nor sentimental.
  15. ashbury
    People seem unwilling to break ideas in two, and say that this is a talented but injury-plagued core. Demanding that players with track records like theirs "prove they can play" comes across as smug.
  16. ashbury
    Some of this is needed, to replace the lately departed Maeda, Meada, and Madea.
  17. ashbury
    Came here to say mainly the same thing after seeing the headline then reading the story. Chris Paddack is an option, and possibly a very good one. Wait and see how he bears up to the workload. No dilemma in that.
  18. ashbury
    Aw, ya caught me. I stole it.
  19. ashbury

    Seattle wants Polanco

    ashbury commented on Brandon's blog entry in Blog Brandon

    Yes, I can see the values, and they actually kind of line up with my back of the envelope way of valuing the players being discussed. (You'll note that I said I'd rather have Kirby, of the two pitchers mentioned, for example.) Really all I was doing was responding to our three young infielders being mentioned in the same breath, to say that Julien is the one I'd part with most willingly in such a deal. Which, again is borne out by BTV. Not that BTV is meant to be taken as gospel, and any two front offices may value their respective players much differently than BTV or any of us can know. What BTV does is reinforce how difficult it will be to obtain controllable and truly top-tier pitching via trade. Close to impossible, even. If BTV is right and the whole league views our assets as mediocre, then let's keep everyone and go win some World Series with them - Shock The World!
  20. ashbury

    Seattle wants Polanco

    ashbury commented on Brandon's blog entry in Blog Brandon

    If Julien could be the headliner for Kirby, plus a good pitching prospect that we only hope becomes as good as Kirby, plus a couple of low-minors lottery tickets, I'd be really aggressive about making it happen. My interest in Gilbert would be only slightly, slightly lower due to one less year of control. Of course I'd defer to my player evaluation team for more in depth insight as to which one I want. But I especially see no black marks regarding injury or durability (*cough* Mahle *cough*).
  21. ashbury
    For the 3 current contracts named that are on the 40-man, we don't know yet. Acquiring top tier players who have any choice in the matter will always seem "not cost effective" because the collective bargaining agreement makes it that way. Multiple teams will bid up anyone perceived as above average, creating the classic s-shaped curve (here, money spent on the horizontal axis, value on the vertical). I'll go along with others that Donaldson's contract was bad for the Twins, because it cost them significant resources in trade to simply get out from under it. Buxton's contract has simply cost money, so far; the terms of the contract were meant to protect against injury but "oh, I can only DH today" for weeks on end proved to be a loophole, and if that persists through the life of the contract I'll change my view. Correa and Vazquez, I foresee them delivering more value than they have so far, so the jury's out. Dobnak is looking like a failure of player evaluation, with the finger injury being merely what triggered it. It bothers me more than it should, because the contract is the least consequential of those named.
  22. ashbury
    If the ground rule is to construct the 26-man from the current 40-man, I think I have to put Miranda in St Paul and roster Gordon. Limbo is for dancers from Trinidad.
  23. ashbury
    In 2023, the Twins averaged 4.6 runs a game while Pablo Lopez was on the mound. They averaged 4.7 for Joe Ryan. For Sonny Gray? 3.3 runs. Imagine that much difference in ERA - you think that might affect how often a good pitcher will get a 'W'? After the starter departed the game, the Twins averaged .9 additional runs in Pablo's games, .7 runs for Joe. In Sonny's games they averaged .4 more runs. So not only were they less likely to support him during his start, but they were less likely to come back to take a lead. There needs to be some context when looking at game results for a pitcher. There's wide variation in what goes on that's out of his hands, unless his name is Shohei and he picks up a bat.. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2023-pitching.shtml#all_players_starter_pitching
  24. ashbury
    To let us Sell High, duh.
  25. ashbury
    They offered him a one-year, $20.325 million deal. He turned it down. It was in the news.
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