Brandon

4th OF looks to be a competition between Cave and Refsnyder. Twinsfans need to get over the Badoo rule 5 pick. That was just a lucky pick for Detroit. No one on this board would have protected him and no one said anything when he was left unprotected and then taken....

This season has been a perfect storm of bad luck. Most of it was pitching. The offense has been pretty good. Only some injuries and a lack of a Buxton extension is really all we can complain about here....msybe Simmons offense. The defense has been ok but should have been better. But the real issue has been the implosion of our pitching staff. Maeda went backwards, Happy was horrible, Shoemaker was the worst. And Dobnak was hurt. Colone blew so many saves with giving up so many unearned runs. Then to make matters worse our pitching depth was worse with all the injuries. That was our issue this year. Also missing

someone who was missed. Cave went 5 for 18 with 2 walks and a triple since coming back from the DL. That is a .278/.350/.389 and .734 OPS. I think if Cave can hit .250 with 9 or 10 walks in 120 ABs with 5 doubles and 5 Hrs he will make a nice case to return next year as a back up. and with The guy we traded for him, I would like to see Cave end up with close to 1200 -1500 ABs by the time he leaves Minnesota to give us a better return on that trade. I think Baily Ober has almost shown me enough to have the 4th or 5th spot in the rotation locked down. He has great strikeout rates, low walk rates, and ok hit rates. I think he just needs to be able to show he can pick up where he leaves off this year next year. He seems pretty consistent. Jax shows potential. so I want to give him time. I donl't know how much he has but probably more than Barnes. While Barnes hasn't been horrible I think he is the easiest to replace in the rotation.

I don't think Cave was healthy to start the season. So I would like to see how he finishes the season before deciding his fate. What are his stats from returning from the DL to the end of the season. and how does that compare to everyone and also how many roster spots do we have available to protect extra players. I am not saying I am high on him, just saying lets give him a chance through the end of the year to see where he is at.

The idea was to show where we are now. What the Twins goal should be the rest of this season and how developing a pitcher or two gives us a floor going into the offseason where we really need 2 starting pitchers or 1 if we resign Pineda. I also wanted to show the assets available for trades or money available for free agents. With all that flexibility, we have so many ways to build the rotation. I think we resign Pineda and sign a starter on a short term deal to see who develops from the minors and in a season or 2 we can go after a big name pitcher if we want and if we successfully develop some pitching as well.

With the rotation in shambles with the failure of Shoemaker and Happ and the ineffectiveness of Dobnak and his injury which put the Twins in a hole where they were best served trading their best pitcher Berrios. The Twins are now working on a new floor for the rotation, so they have something to work with going into the offseason. As of now the rotation for 2022 is setting up to be Maeda and ???? To start setting the floor the Twins kept Pineda and there is talk he could sign an extension and stay a while longer. That would be a boon to our floor. We have also started Bailey Ober several times and he is starting to turn in some decent starts and may be a solid 4th or 5th starter next year. We are also currently looking at Griffin Jax and Charlie Barnes to see what they can do. If either of these 2 guys show that they can be counted on to post a 4.5 era we would have another 4th or 5th starter who is at least capable at the end of the rotation. I hope a few others get opportunities too. Does anyone know the timeline for Smeltzer’s, or Thorpe’s return from injuries? With Dobnak’s contract do we know when he will be back too this season. I know he will be in the mix next season to show this one was the aberration. As for now the starters we end up keeping will at least give us depth or a long man for next season. So now we end 2021 with a rotation of: Maeda, Ober, Jax, Barnes or anyone who shows promise of being a 4th or 5th starter. We also go into the offseason with a stable of pitchers who are almost ready to contribute at the major league level. Other potential 4th or 5th starters or depth include Thorpe, Smeltzer and Dobnak We have several pitchers near ready including the three we just acquired Joe Ryan, Strotman, Woods-Richardson. And the those we developed internally, Balazovich, Duran, Winder, Sands, and maybe Vallimont. So how do we turn all of this and other available talent and potential free agent signings into a great rotation that can compete in 2022? Which pitchers will be available for trade? With all the pitchers we have, maybe a trade of a 4th / 5th starter type like Ober and a developing pitcher like Winder or even Joe Ryan and a player like Larnarch can bring us a decent starting pitcher in a trade? Who are the available free agents? It seems we should have around 60-70 million available by back of napkin simple math. Based on the available assets with which to build out a rotation I suspect we will have a competitive rotation. How do you see us rebuilding the rotation with these pieces for next year? Here is the list of most of the starting pitchers who are free agents (I removed a few easy no's): I do not know who is available for trade. Brett Anderson (34) Marcus Stroman (30) Noah Syndergaard (29) Julio Teheran (31) Jose Urena (30) Vince Velasquez (30) Anthony DeSclafani (32) Justin Verlander (39) Michael Wacha (30) Alex Wood (31) Chase Anderson (34) Tyler Anderson(32) Chris Archer (33) Mike Fiers (37) Jake Arrieta (36) Dylan Bundy (29) Trevor Cahill (33) Alex Cobb (34) Johnny Cueto (36) Zach Davies (29) Danny Duffy (33) Kevin Gausman (31) Jon Gray (30) Zack Greinke (38) Andrew Heaney (31) Rich Hill (42) Merrill Kelly (32) Yusei Kikuchi (31) Kwang-Hyun Kim (33) Corey Kluber (36) Wade LeBlanc (37) Jon Lester (38) Michael Lorenzen (30) Jordan Lyles (31) Carlos Martinez (30) Wade Miley (35) Mike Montgomery (32) Matt Moore (33) Daniel Norris (29) Ivan Nova (35) James Paxton (33) Martin Perez (31) Michael Pineda (33) Jose Quintana (33) Robbie Ray (30) Garrett Richards (34) Tanner Roark (35) Carlos Rodon (29) Drew Smyly (33) Eduardo Rodriguez (29) Tyson Ross (35) Aaron Sanchez (29) Max Scherzer (37) Here is my guestimated rotation for 2022 1. Maeda 2. Pineda (Resign 2 year 26 million) 3. Johnny Cuerto (1 or 2 year contract w/ no draft picks attached 15 million per season) 4. Ober 5. Dobnak 6. Ryan, Woods-Richardson, Balazovich and Winder on the cusp. The Twins seem to prefer not signing pitchers to long term contracts if they can help it. A 2 year extension for Pineda is the norm. and Cuerto is advancing in age and is still effective. A 1 or 2 year deal may work out for him. Maybe Noah Syndergaard too but he is more of a ? at this point. I thought of someone like Gray as he is durable and wont cost too much on an annual basis. There is room for a starter to come up and replace either Ober or Dobnak at any point even both. (A benefit to having a floor is the floor is replaceable) Let me know how you see the rotation stacking up for next season.

If we signed someone, ask yourself which pitchers are likely to throw 180+ innings at the lowest price. That is who we would target. Likely Gausman or Rodriguez Thor would have to come on a low guarentee with incentives. I bet he could do better. Ray and Strongman are options too. But ate likely too expensive. Who are the top free agent pitchers a year from now? That is where we should be looking I think.

With a 91-94 mph fastball with movement and control, anyone like this can be a top notch starter. I will be happy if he can be a pitcher who gets around 10 wins a season and pitches 130-150 innings with a 4.00-4.50 era. We have a few pitchers like that (Dobnak, Barnes, Jax, Thorpe, and Smeltzer to start) and having 1 or2 in the back of the rotation and a swingman or 2 in the bullpen can make a huge difference over the course of a season by having a lot of depth that can hold their own. Anyways we get to see what he and the above can do while we watch the Olympics with 2 of our top starter prospects and maybe in September one or two higher ranked prospects can get the call so we can see them. It would be nice to see one of these prospects succeed to help take the pressure off of the top prospects and give us a nice floor to work from.

I see trades on the horizon for more pitching to speed up the rebuild. Also there are lots of SS on the open market this offseason. I wonder if we can get one of them signed? We should have plenty of money going into next year. Especially if we trade Buxton in the offseason which I hope we don't do.

Going from a .900 OPS to a .750 OPS with one player doesn't kill the offense. Our offense is still above average and with the talent coming up I see no reason for our offense to have any issues for the foreseeable future. We could even sign a top hitting SS to make a super offense again. That would be fun. We have enough pitching to build our staff back up both in the pen and rotation. because of all the low cost players, we should have plenty of money for free agency and or prospect capital for trades. While Thor is a fun target, I don't know if he is the value a pitcher coming back from injury used to be. Other teams are bidding on those pitchers now so I don't know if we can get the same value like when we signed Pineda 4 years ago. That would be fun to resign Cruz. I don't see how we can with all of our DH bats we already have with Sano, Rooker, Arraez and every now and then Donaldson should get a day there too. but if we can make it happen that would be cool. going into next season we have a competitive lineup and bench with only minor tweaks needed. 1B Killeroff and Sano 2B Polanco and Arraez SS Austin Martin and Lewis or FA 3B Donaldson, Miranda C Garver, Jeffers, and Rortvedt OF Kepler OF Larnach OF Buxton DH Rooker, Sano, Donaldson Bench Cave, Gordon, Celestino, (players listed above not starting) Our rotation has: Maeda Pineda (likely resigning) Ober, Dobnak, Barnes, Thorpe, Smeltzer, and then you have our closest to ready prospects (Balazovich, Duran, Winder, Joe Ryan) followed by the next tier of prospects who could be ready by midseason (Strottman, Vallimont, Woods-Richardson, Sands) and we could still sign another FA starting Pitcher. Bullpen: Rogers Duffey Alcala Theilbar Farrell, Coulombe, Thorpe, Smeltzer, Dobnak, Burrows, Law, Stashak, Moran other starters who are not in the rotation and we can sign a reliever or 2 this offseason as well. This feels like we are only a few players away from competing again next year and some of those players could come from the minors. The big scare is the rotation. Does anyone have an update for our 2022 season budget? What are we committed to spending and what do we have available to sign players?

And the Cuddyer pick keeps on giving with our two new acquisitions from the Blue Jays. 1rst round pick from 1997. This pick can easily impact our team for another 10 years now.

I was just thinking of the Happ trade. 1. I think the Cardinals think Happ can do better in the NL where the pitcher hits and will be able to get innings while having a 4-4.5 era. 2 They are getting him for no real cost since the Twins are paying his salary. 3 With the pitchers ST got would Gant be displaced by these pitchers so trading him is inconsequential to them and the Twins are also paying his salary. 4. The minor leaguer they traded is a minor lottery ticket so again no real loss. St Louis was able to move Gant's salary and get a free pitcher for a minor league reliever.

As an example see Cuddyer. A high school SS who ended up at 2nd, 3rd, LF and Rf and 1b even.....

Did the Twins trade Pineda? Or anyone else today?

I did like the waiver claim from the Reds earlier today. We recieved a reliever with options for this season for nothing.

Robles was traded to the Red Sox and no one is talking about our waiver claim from Reds earlier today.

Well I bet Shoemaker is about to get a chance to show if he was right or not about his claim. Especially if we trade anther starter.

Gaunt was quite the vulture in 2019 going 11 - 1 from the pen in 66 games. Sick is having a Colone type season in the minors decent pitching but tons of unearned runs to blow games.

For those updating our prospect lists don't forget we signed our top pick the high schooler with a 102 mph fastball. Where is he on the list?

So is Martin a Buxton replacement?

The Twins were limited with trading Santana. A better comp would be the. Viola trade which brought us Tapani and Aguilera. 2 key pitchers in 91..... This is more like that I think.

Also I bet Cave will hit better and even around where he hit in the past now that his injury is behind him. or in "back" of him....

This is spot on. and I heart it a second time here.

Ortiz had 53 extra base hits in 412 AB. that is one per 7.77 ABs. That is a strong showing and he was just entering his prime. While Ortiz may not have been the same as what he became, He was about to break out. and the Twins were starving for power. They let him go over a 2 million payout. Even back then that wasn't much money. The idea was to replace him with LeCroy who had 19 WBH in 181 AB and had a 98 +OPS vs Ortiz 120 +OPS The Twins should not have let Ortiz go when they did.

I think the breakdown signals the end of Berrios with the Twins. The Twins would probably be ok with one of Berrios or Buxton walk after next season but not both. I think they may be closer to an extension with Buxton then Berrios so rather than risk loosing both next season they may trade Berrios while still trying to sign Buxton and letting him walk if no deal comes together. I say Berrios may be traded since both San Diego and Los Angeles are neck and neck in a fight for the playoffs and such and both can over pay to get Berrios and both might just to keep the other team from getting him added to the fact that they need him as well.