I think Chacin or the young three are also competing for a long reliever spot as well as a rotation spot. Chacin could make starts for 40 days then move to long relief and either wait for another opportunity to start or wait for a trade or just keep going...
What about the Denny Neagle for Jon Smiley trade and Viola for West, Drummond ,Savage, Tapani, and Aguilera? I don't know if Neagle was too 100.... But West was the highest ranked pitcher in the Viola trade.
You get a play off spot and you get a playoff spot and you get a playoff spot.... everyone gets a playoff spot.... So why bother with a regular season? At least now I won't have to wait to know the Twins are in every year. Their competitive cycle is never ending.
I think the 10 million is the average estimated value based on WAR if I had to guess. The Twins likely used the same valuations when they sold a pick to the Pads with Hughes.... I like this trade for the Twins. I bet Maeda and Graterol end up with similar values. The 10 million covers most of the base contract so Maeda is aost free with incentives. Raley is redundant and we got him from LA anyways and so they can have him back for being the other adult in this trade.....
I agree. I was also pointing out how we acquired Raley from the Dodgers in the Dozier swap and now we send him back in this one. Someday we can acquire Raley again and keep the cycle going.
I would be willing to add a prospect like Poppen to the deal. someone who could come up and be a back end starter or reliever. or a low level prospect could be in order too. or a competitive round draft pick or 250k or 500k international draft signing slot. I wouldn't want to add too much to the deal. Maybe we could add 2-4 million cash to the deal to Boston. Those are the types of adds / compromises I would be willing to consider to balance out the trade.
In terms of risk on this deal if Maeda pitches the same the next 4 years as the last he should win around 50-60 games. and he will make around 40 million give or take from his incentive package. Graterol could be anything from a good to great reliever or any level starter good, bad, injured, great. I think the most likely outcomes have both players with similar results and pay over the next 4 and 6 years. beyond 6 Boston would have to sign an extention and there is no guarentee Graterol will. same as if he was in Minnesota. from that view the trade is fine. also if we have a rotation of 5 starters with average to better than average era and a bullpen that is one of the best will = a pitching staff that is capable of an above average ERA or one that is lower than the average.... How will that not win in the playoffs if we have a rotation that can pitch 5 innings giving up 2 or 3 runs and turning over to a pen that doesn't give up much? Especially with our offense. to me we have a 50/50 fighting chance going into the playoffs with our team as is.
Maeda and Bailey cost 3.125 million and 7 million vs Gibson making 10 million and Perez 6 million. so we also save money and Maeda will be here next year too so we have three starters locked up for 2021 now.
4 years of a veteran starting pitcher at 3.125 million per year keeps costs down so we can afford the raises coming in and gives us a rotation of Berrios, Maeda, and Pineda at the end of the year so we won't be scrambling like this offseason.
With our offense and bullpen we only need a rotation that can go 5 innings and give up 2-3 runs a game. If Chacin can get the longball under control, he is that guy. So we now have a solid rotation WITH options in case of injury and ineffectiveness.
I think the Sox are set up to be an 82-85 win team like the 2015 Twins. They do have holes as mentioned in the article. But we have a world class offense which is nearly an all time great line up. Our bullpen is incredibly deep so if we have injured starters their replacements only need to go 4-5 innings. We just signed Chacin for more depth. I am no longer worried about the rotation. I am also sure we can still trade for a starter if need be.
I would go a little higher then Seth's estimate maybe Arb1 = 4.3 million Arb 2 = 9 million Arb 3 = 13 million FA 1 = 17.5 million So a 4 year 45 - 46 million with 5th year option of 17 million with 4 - 5 million buyout. It's a little on the high side but the numbers are where they need to be for an extension.
This is absolutely a fun debate. We should make a series out of this, maybe do WAR next. And we should also compare bench bats as well. We are pretty stacked there too. That matters in determining offensive fire power too. I am sure there are likely other aspects to judget the offenses on as well.