Brandon

I disagree. Chris Taylor can be brought in to handle SS until Lewis is ready to take over in 2023 or 2024 and Chris can move around the diamond. We obviously have trade options at that point. But compared to the cost of the big 5 SS Chris will be the more affordable option so money can be spent on pitching and Buxtons extension.

I think Iglesias is a good pitcher to sign. I would be open to signing Kimbrel to a 2 year 16 - 20 million total contract with incentives to 24 or 26 million range. I don't think I would offer any more. Though we won with veterans in the pen, Reardon and Aguilera. But I really liked how our bullpen closed out this season and don't think we need too much there. More importantly is making sure we have healthy 6, 7, 8, and 9 starters who are healthy. We had a big problem with that in 2021.

If we resign Pineda then we really only need 1 more starting pitcher at that point. You mentioned 3 perfect options though we might be players for Strongman or one of the top end starters. I am definitely curious to see what the team does this offseason. I don't see Grenke as an option since he didn't want to come here before.

I think both Astudillo and Refsnyder could and probably should be non-tendered. Couloumbe should be retained especially at 800k. Cave is a definite non-tender. and I believe everyone else should be tendered a contract.

This story illustrates why Minnesota will sign Chris Taylor to play SS. He will command a shorter contract at a lower AAV and can play multiple positions hit a good .800 OPS. He is the value play here.

On pitching. I think the starters will be able to go deeper into games next year. I think this year the Twins decided to be cautious and limit several pitchers to 80 pitches per start as a way to manage stress on a pitchers arm after not throwing the previous year. I also think the Tins will resign Pineda and get 1 more starting pitcher. There are 5 starting pitchers who are top pitching prospects at AA and AAA last season. Our rotation shapes up as: FA starter Pineda Ober Ryan Dobnak/ Gant We also have Balazovich, Winder, Sands, Richardson-Woods, and Duran are all likely to be in AAA in short order if not at the start of next season. Canterino could be in AA as well. That is 6 starters who are knocking on the door to the majors next season. And Maeda will be back at some point after the all star break. So there needs to be some opportunity available to the younger starters to get a spot in the rotation next season. As far as Cruz goes, I am on board with bringing him back on next season. I do think he will regress at some point. And if it is next year, we have plenty of options to give him rest so we can set him up with good match ups. I also think his power will age well regardless. so lets see what happens next season. I would like to see him hit number 500 with the Twins. I also want him to reach over 100 of them as a Twin too. He is about 2 seasons away from being a border line hall of famer. Would like to see if he can set himself up to be a worthy candidate.

THis is what I was thinking on Simmons too. His defense is fine. I expected him to lose a half step in the field. I did not expect his offense to crater. His offense was historically bad. I was thinking of an ops in the .660 - .720 range. He was well below that even. I figured he would get pinch hit for at times or maybe lose a few starts in the field and be the late inning defensive replacement during some offensive slumps and be the #9 hitter. but again I thought he will hit significantly better even if that meant he was still a below average hitter. I will be honest though. I would be ok with bringing him back on a low cost with incentives deal if we do not sign a high profile high offensive SS over the winter. Maybe 5 million guarantee with up to 5 million more with so many plate appearances. 1 that means we signed Buxton to an extension and 2 it means the Twins are planning on 1 of Lewis or Martin to take over SS when ready.

Any time you get 2 to 3 long term players developed and up to the major leagues is a successful year. To have 5 + is great. And we still have lots of prospects on the way..

No pitchers on the list?

I enjoy your Articles Nick. You've improved every year since your Nelson and Nelson days.

for 2021 the grade is definitely lower but I am not sure It is an F. as injuries and 3 acquisitions killed the season. Simmons on offense, Colone closing the first 2 months of the season, Shoemaker, (I don't include Happ as he was a .500 pitcher and was ok till his last few starts for the Twins). Injuries to Dobnak, and the depth starters Thorpe, Smeltzer and Duran kept Shoemaker failing in the rotation longer.... Injuries to Buxton and Garver hurt the offense. and that is how we crashed. I am going to give them a C- for this year for 1 not quitting and 2 rebuilding the pen and most of a rotation on the fly. We are going into the offseason needing a SS and a front of the line rotation arm and bullpen arm and resign Buxton and Pineda as a result. maybe a depth arm or two as well.

The signings of the free agents last offseason all looked fine. They all had track records and they all failed. Happy was actually a decent 5th starter till his last 3 or 4 when he just imploded. What made the Shoemaker signing worse is our 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th starters were hurt almost all season. That's a lot of injuries. (Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe and Duran)

I also forgot to mention the other extensions with Sano, Polanco and Kepler and that they have all worked out. Sano's was more ok then great but Polanco is such a great value. Kepler is a value too.

I guess its time to grade Falvey and CO at the 5 year mark of their run. They came in with a young roster with lots of promise in 2017. They were on the fringes of contention so they decided to go for it and traded for a pitcher. They traded Ynoa who is now a starter for the Braves. It took the Braves 4+ year to develop him so I don't hold that against this regime. I consider it similar to when we acquired Bartlett who panned out but wasn't a name prospect. after a week He changed course and sold off some players and netted us a few prospects In 2017 we went 85-77 and won the Wild Card anyhow and lost in the wild card game. and this year they drafted Lewis, Rooker, Enlow, Barnes, Ober, and Sammons, Sammons is still on the farm. I didnt see any other names as prospects. Overall this was a great draft based on the McPhail philosophy of bringing up 2-3 players a year so a draft that produces more cant be discounted. in 2018 we went 77-85 They tried several patches in FA and they failed. Logan Morrison and Lance Lynn were not good Addison Reed was bad in the pen, They stole Odorizzi from Tampa Bay in a trade and made something of Magill who was a serviceable back of the pen reliever who finally seem to make it with Minnesota at 29. Ehire Adrianza and Zack Duke were solid signings for depth on the bench and bullpen. but the big signings were failures. The draft again looks strong Larnarch, Jeffers, Winder, Sands, and Funderbunk. I think we also signed Severino to a minor league contract who is still a prospect and considered a 1rst round talent at the time and traded nothing (I mean international salary cap space for 2 prospects a C who is currently at AAA and Pearson an OF that I dont know what happened to him.) in 2019 we went 101-61. Great team great results. Signed Schoop and Cron to 1 year deals and won on both. though Cron got hurt signed Cruz for the best Free agent signing since 1991. (lets face it signing Morris and Chili Davis were the 2 best signings since they gave us a World Series Winner). The Twins signed Martin Perez to a low budget deal and got 10 wins and ok 5th starter. The 2017 signing of Pineda worked out great. Ryne Harper, Cody Stashak, Zack Littell, Randy Dobnak, came out of no where to do a great job. other signings were ok and a few were awful (Sam Dyson) its early to grade the draft. I still see 7 or 8 players as prospects including Canterino, Wallner, Steer, Sawyer Gipson-Long, Louie Varland and the quetionable #1 draft pick Cavaco. In 2020 There was no minor league season this throws a wrench into development big time. but the Twins drafted 4 players and still have Sabato who has power. Soulaire sounds familiar and I don't know the others at all. the Twins went 36-24 which is a 60% winning percentage and pace for over 100 wins again. The Twins signed Donaldson and he did fine when not hurt. They Acquired the #2 in the Cy Young race for a prospect who is a solid reliever at this point and not much else. Brought in Theilbar and Wisler to the pen as a success. Clippard and Romo were good too but Romo was wearing down towards the end of the season. In 2021 The Twins are reeling from a lack of 2020 minor league season. Their depth starters were hurt almost all season Dobnak, Duran, Smeltzer, and Thorpe, Happ and Shoemaker were not good signings. At least Happ would pitch well enough to be in games most of the time. but Shoemaker was bad and the situation was made worse with the depth unavailable to replace him. Colone also blew a bunch of saves the first month of the season to help derail it. at least he rebounded and was ok the rest of the way. Maeda got hurt and that was always a possibility with the contract he signed and everything so again I will not let this count against the grade either cause it was already planned for in terms of a contract which doesnt cripple our plans this offseason. Buxton, Garver, and Killeroff spent lots of time on the DL. Simmons was a bust with the bat, Kepler regressed. the offense is still above average and here next year. They also rebounded in the bullpen. After starting out the pen failed miserably The Twins rebuilt with waver claims and ended with a strong pen down the stretch, one of the best in the league. That was important since the rotation imploded beyond all belief and we traded our rotation rock Berrios to Toronto. Ober and Ryan look to be future rotation arms moving forward. Maeda will recover, and Pineda is hoping to return to the Twins so we seem close to a workable rotation. We lost 2 key prospects to the rule 5 draft last offseason who performed real well this year and in areas of need for Minnesota which hurt. But to be fair neither player played much the last 2 seasons before being taken. I wouldn't stash them either on the roster. Tyler Wells was close for me cause I thought he was near Major League ready when he got injured but I don't blame the Twins for that . The Twins have developed several pitching prospects that will be up next season so this year there was some good in the minors but the pitchers were all limited due to last year too. Winder, Duran, Balazovic, Sands, and traded for Woods-Richardson so we do have those prospects who should be in AAA and knocking on the door .... We started this season 5-2 then went 9-25 to drop 13 games below .500. If we win tomorrow we finish 16 games below .500 for the season so we at least rebounded being around a .500 team even with an imploding rotation the rest of the season. Its not the season I wanted but the core which can compete is still together on the position player side. I bet that if we had 2020 to develop minor league pitching we would have had the depth to make this a better season. so from where I stand the Twins did a lot right. they did a few things wrong and we have an opportunity to right the ship and move forward. I will reserve giving a full grade until after this offseason when we know how the rotation will shape out for next season and if we sign Buxton to a long term extension. Without that knowledge They get a B. With the Buxton extension and with good starting pitching for next season the grade goes up to a B+ maybe A- Probably should add list of minor league talent list that haunts today. Nick Anderson, Zack Littel, Ynoa, Luis Gil, LaMonte Wade Jr, Akil Baddoo, Tyler Wells. Am I missing anyone? This blog was written in response to Tom Froemming's video about grading Falvey and Levine.

I think the Twins would pay him 15 million if he makes 32 starts. But that is why there should be incentives. Make the Contract for the 125 innings he is likely to get and more for the 170 innings you want him to get.

3 years at 18 million sound right.

1 more loss gets us 90. Can we win the last 2 games to avoid 90?.....

Donaldson could play 3B/DH in a 60/40 split with Miranda in LF / 3B split of 60/40 with Arreaz in LF 40% and utility

If this is it, he goes out winning his last 4 decisions in a row. But it seems like he will be back. For a similar contract with maybe a few more dollars is fine see my blog on guessing his next contract.

Miranda can try LF. Its not like Larnarch or Rooker have claimed it yet. But those three can vie for LF next spring. Also someone can get hurt giving Miranda an opportunity and he can also be a super utility player and play LF, 3B DH and 1B and since he has options can spend some time in the minors. He may not get 500+ AB in the majors but 400 between the majors and minors is possible with close to 300 of those appearances in the majors.

If the Twins take 2 of 3 in Kansas City we avoid 90 losses. also can Rooker get to 10 HR and Buxton to 20?

I have seen several overtures to Pineda wanting to stay in Minnesota. That is a hard find in the market and with our need of several starting pitchers, we should take a good look at what it should take to resign the veteran. Here is the article from MlbTraderumors.com I just saw which spurred this blog post. Baldelli Hopes Pineda Will Return To Twins In 2022 - MLB Trade Rumors. I would think its either a 1 or 2 year contract. Since we need money in the budget to sign others its probably in the 8-12 million base guarantee per season. There should be incentives for IP. The size of the guarantee will determine what the incentives should be. I think that with incentives should be able to make in 13-15 million range if he hits 180 innings and that should max out his incentives as he likely will not reach 200 innings.So for my guess I will go with a 2 year 22 million contract with 500,000 incentives starting at 120 innings, 140 innings, 160 innings and 180 innings. for a possible 13 million per season. Do you think he will resign with the Twins and if so how much?

Such a weird feeling. Someone agrees with me.

I see Gordon as a .270 / .310 / .380 type of hitter. I don't think he could pay SS more then as a utility player and even then he is stretched. He seems solid in the OF to me as a back up. He has speed. He can also play in the IF. He is an ideal back up player in my book. He is a AAAA player but not like the traditional AAAA player and that makes him a back up. He is like 85-90% across the board with major league speed. He can also regress quickly from his current talent level and that will always be worrisome. He doesn't have much of a ceiling beyond this. Gordon had a nice run. but so did refsnyder. Lets see if Gordon can do that again next year. He has definitely earned the chance to show he is a good back up player.

Rooker has options. You keep him for depth in AAA in case of injury. He can be a 1B, DH, RF