Brandon

Who was in their top 10?

I typo’d my comment above and fixed it. In 2022 as of May 31 Kepler had an .805 OPS and played through an injury the rest of the season and was shut down in September that year….The May 31 is kinda important in that statement.

I just wanted to point out in 2022 Kepler had an .805 OPS on May 31. and from what I remember he played through with an injury the rest of the season. I think the Twins even shut him down in September. So I think a healthy Kepler will be able to produce an .800 OPS moving forward.

We had a top offense after the all star break last season is why you don't hear anyone talking about the offense. While it can improve. we do have some internal improvements we are pretty confident in happening like Correa bouncing back even if not to previous levels he is likely to bounce back better then last year. Lewis for a full season is a big improvement as well. Buxton is looking more like an OF per reports. and full seasons from Wallner and Julien and more playing time for Jeffers. This all adds up. Vs we lost 2 starting pitchers and a reliever in FA and we need to replace at least one starter who can be trusted to start in the playoffs. Also I keep hearing Devin Williams from Milwaukee. I hate to burst your bubble but it seems Milwaukee is going for it. at least by the moves they have made so far. If they get a hitter you know they are going for it so they wont trade their elite pitchers maybe at the all star break if they fall out of contention. but resigning Miley and extending their phenom who will be a rookie next year points to trying again. I can see them resigning Carlos Santana for 1B and if they can get another hitter like Cron or someone to DH and another 100-110 OPS+ hitter They could have enough offense with their pitching to make a run.

After reading this article it makes me think the Twins should wait until the trade deadLine to get that starter. The moves Milwaukee is making I doubt they sell Burnes and go for it. Now at the trade deadline if they are out of it…. on Paddack, I wonder if 2 or 3 planned 10-15 day DL stints to rest is an allowable DL stint by the league? The Twins should do something like this more than once to help limit his workload and keep him fresh for the playoff run.

The issue with getting Hoskins is the 2025 payroll. There are big raises coming and some of them are already known and built in already.

There are #2 and #3 starters who can have a good season and improve. Gray was not an ace when we got him. But yes I am saying we look for someone who can help in the playoffs but maybe not as the #1 starter. Not a starter in the top 20 but maybe in the 21-60 range. Does that help explain the type of pitcher we should be targeting?

I don’t expect the Twins to trade for a number 1 starter. I am hoping they can find a low #2 or #3 starter who can through a mid 3 ERA and get atleast 150 innings for us. I don’t want the Twins to need to dig too much into our depth as we have many good things in place already.

Or maybe the shoulder injury was the problem.

Um, the Twins in all fairness don’t need to spend money this offseason. Sure they could be lazy and sign someone but why? We only need 1 year of a starting pitcher of good quality and then the rotation is pretty close to being set the rest of the decade. We may need a back up player or two. Those don’t cost much and maybe sign a scrub reliever to compete for that last bullpen job. You mentioned in the post it’s mall about the money yet you are the one demanding more of it. Honestly it’s not really needed this offseason. What is needed is one more starting pitcher of quality and maybe a 1B or DH or back up CF which we already have 3 internal ones. I don’t know. I would think we needed extra money to keep Gray. But since he’s gone that point is moot and we are free to find other low cost methods to find another starter. Instead of focusing on money, let’s focus on making sure Falvine gets us what is needed for the team to take the next step….

This offseason there is little heavy lifting to do to improve our team. The main move needed is to find a starting pitcher who can come somewhat close to replacing what Sonny Gray provided the Twins last season. beyond that we are looking for a backup CF and keep in mind we have several available in-house options too like Castro, Gordon, and Austin Martin. and either an upgrade at 1B or someone who can add to it. Keep in mind we have a supposedly now healthy Killeroff and Miranda who both dealt with injuries last year. And if we want to get really nitpicky, we can look to sign a castoff reliever who we think we can turn around here like so many others. Also, I wonder if the Twins can sign DeLeon back to a 2-year minor-league contract so he can be a 2-time cast off turn around project when he recovers from Tommy John again. So that should constitute our offseason in a nutshell. So why should we be cool with the offseason so far? I mean we lost 2 good starting pitchers and a reliever too. We did gain an extra draft pick out of the deal. So, there is that. Maybe it's because Falvine signed Paddack to that 3-year extension for just over 12 million while he was injured and also note that during the last 2 seasons, they actually acquired too many starting pitchers. Creating a logjam that was fixed by 2 of them going on the disabled list for most of last year. Both Paddack and Mahle missed most of the season, yet we still had 5 good starters all season long. and looking forward in 2024 we have: 2024 Starting Pitchers and depth: 1. Lopez 2. Ryan 3. Ober 4. Paddack 5. Varland 6+. Festa, SWR, and Dobnak and maybe Canterino though I expect him in the pen. So, if we want to be like last season, we want to get one more major-league starter who can push most of the rotation down a peg to give the rotation lots of depth and talent going into next season. Here is where things get really fun. all 5 of these starters are under contract or control for extended time. Paddack can't be a free agent until 2026 and Ryan, Ober, and Lopez in 2028 offseason. Varland is 2030. but wait there is more. Next offseason our depth is expected to grow internally exponentially as many pitchers will be closer to being ready for the 2025 season. This gives us lots of depth to even be able to trade from except with the rotation depth locked in and the position player side looks pretty good too. we may only be able to trade for more prospects to cover as this new version of the team gets more expensive. 2025 starting rotation and depth 1. Lopez 2. Ryan 3. Ober 4. Paddack 5. Varland 6+ Festa, SWR, Lewis, Raya, (CJ Culpepper and Zabby Mathews should be ready by mid 2025) Preliepp could surprise and be ready by mid 2025 too. 2026 Rotation and starting depth. 1. Lopez 2. Ryan 3. Ober 4. Varland 5. finally someone from all that depth makes it up to the rotation. and also the 2027 rotation ....... (this may sound kinda familiar)... 1. Lopez 2. Ryan 3. Ober 4. Varland 5. finally someone from all that depth makes it up to the rotation. And while I do expect injury and trades to change things. That is why I list multiple pitchers for the 6th+ spot in the rotation. The rotation looks pretty well set for now and in the future. for now, to really give us depth, we just need to get a starting pitcher for 1 season while all of those other pitchers develop and pitchers like Varland, SWR and Festa start to get more time and experience in the show to be fully prepared to move in. On the position player side of things looks similar too with so few positions needing players for a while. Expect many boring offseason ahead wondering which bench/ minor league and scrub bullpen signings we have to help raise the floor on the last spot or two on the bench or bullpen.

Winder and Alcala are the likeliest to replace Pagan. It will be a combo as replacing a rubber armed reliever will come from multiple places. I believe the Twins will sign a reliever or two to raise the floor in competition for the jobs and if we get another starter then Varland would slot up there with Jax I think.

We still need solid innings coverage to replace the innings lost. No one should be expecting to replace the 2nd best pitcher in the league with the same level of production. But if we can find a pitcher who gets a low to mid 3.50 ERA then we can be competitive and more improvements can come from other places. We have a nice chunk of innings replaced already. But if we can find a starter who can get us atleast 150 more. We should be alright.

The name not mentioned for starts next year is Dobnak. I can see him get called up for a few soot starts throughout the season I put the over/ under for him at 4 starts. He pitched a lot of innings and had a lot of strikeouts too. (His ERA not so good). But he is also a pitcher we can add to the roster and DFA the next day and send him back to AAA ….. I put the pecking order as SWR 6th starter Dobnak 7th Festa 8th Pierson Oh 9th maybe tied with Lewis.

The Marlins resigned Smeltzer to a minor league deal to help with their pitching depth. Maybe they do plan to trade a starter. I see one of Lee or Julien in a trade for a starter. We keep Polanco for another year while Lee develops in AAA and makes his debut later in the season. Maybe a deal of Julien, Larnarch and Festa for a Starting Pitcher who is good. Or atleast it’s the start of a good trade package.

We got one player this way once upon a time. Brian Buscher from the Giants. Not a half bad pick either. not a great player but ok back up. Brian Buscher Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com

and with the upcoming soto trade

As far as our winter moves are concerned. I am just watching for our starting pitcher acquisition. That will be the big move. from that we may trade a salary, the other moves like minor league offers for relievers and bench players maybe we sign someone to a legit 2 million deal to be a back up but the rest of the moves will be minor.

Does this mean the Twins have 4 of the top 100 picks in the next draft?

I think the Marlins approa The Twins about who they were going to pick to help them plan their move and I bet Terry Ryan asked them about a trade to pay their cost of the rule 5 pick so he could go back to the Pohlads and tell them how he got it done for free.

I just don’t see them trading him unless they see issues with his ability to get on base moving forward. He did get HBP 20 times. What’s his BABIP? To me if Tampa has him as available it’s likely to gage his worth to other teams. Is his defense bad? He would be good at first base for us though and DH for some days and backing 3B. But again why would the Rays trade him unless you overpay due to lack of options in free agency? If we are going to replace WAR through a bat we should see if we can get JD Martinez to DH and be a part time 1B. He will not cost much more than Polanco and if we are trading him it opens a door. Though our focus should be on finding another effective starting pitcher. If we can get one that is low cost then …..

The Twins picked 1rst and Miami 2nd so the Twins picked the player Miami wanted and Miami picked the player the Twins wanted and they made the trade. Miami kicked in the 50k cost of the rule 5 pick as well making Johan Santana totally free.

You could probably put Mack in number 3. He was pivotal to a World Series championship. And if not for the baseball strike he might have remained a Twin a little longer and got more WAR. And then leave 4 and 5 blank.

So would Jared Camp be ranked since his value to the Twins was that he was used to acquire Johan Santana and 50k making that rule 5 pick free and the return on that trade was so high.

Or the Twins could trade for the pitcher Marco Gonzalez who is due to make 12 million next season with a 15 million 2025 option and the cash the Mariners are including or more say 5-6 million so the cost of Gonzalez is only 6-7 million next season and the Twins can trade him, decline the option or exercise the option and keep him for 2025. and Gonzalez is a lefty. He has a track record or being a solid #3 starter (basically in the same area as Ryan). This sounds more like where the Twins would be interested here. The cost to acquire Gonzalez will be less in prospects too. What would really be cool is if we included Vazquez in the trade and received Arnaud in the deal. Arnaud is due to make 2 million less and has an 8 million option so that may be moot as that is way more value for the Twins thus bigger prospects or less cash back. Braves Likely To Trade Marco Gonzales - MLB Trade Rumors