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Brandon

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Everything posted by Brandon

  1. Brandon
    I’m fine with keeping him or letting him walk. I think he does have value as a CF. I think the offense improves with a full season from everyone and the eventual additions of Martin and Lee. So we can live with Taylor’s weaknesses.
  2. Brandon
    Sonny Gray theoretical contract 3 year 70 million year 1 -25 million, year 2 15 million, year 3 30 million.
  3. Brandon
    He is likely the 2nd best free agent CF in free agency this offseason. If he can hit for power and run the bases well he can hold his own as a number 9 hitter. But I think he could get his on base average back over .300 but may hit fewer HRs too. But near elite defense makes a near 100 OPS + hitter a solid player. I’m not saying we necessarily resign him. We still have Gordon and Castro for CF if Buxton can’t play. But bringing him back should be an option too.
  4. Brandon
    Before we signed him Minnesota tried to trade for Nolasco. Is that what you mean?
  5. Brandon
    This.⬆️
  6. Brandon
    Ouch! This hurts cause you’re probably right. And that is why we look more towards the trade market for starters. I wonder if the Twins could help Giolito get back on track. I could be on board with this. I like the idea of Odorizzi or even resigning Keuchel as a depth piece in AAA.
  7. Brandon
    Varland and Ober. =. Success developing starting pitchers. We actually have 5 solid starters going into the offseason for next season. We just don’t have any depth whatsoever going into next year as it is currently Dobnak, Wood-Richardson, Festa and Oh. (I would hate to count on any of these pitchers for an extended amount of time). Because we are in contention we want a top starter vs another depth option, otherwise someone to stash in AAA would be fine in a noncontending year.
  8. Brandon
    I agree with what you say but think Gordon should remain an option due to lowest cost option among the backup options. Budgets I would say bring him to spring training to compete for a roster spot. if he doesn't make the team he is owed the title X 100k big deal. better to push the ones who do make the team and have injury insurance on hand at that cost.
  9. Brandon
    They are in the smallest market for a city with all 4 major sport franchises. (football, baseball, hockey, and NBA) that doesn't take into account WNBA, St Paul Saints, and College Sports. In San Diego their payroll went up when the Chargers left town and they were they only sport in town. This is how we are a bottom 10 payroll. or around the 22nd - 18th out of 30 teams
  10. Brandon
    What about front loading the contract say 5, 6, 7, 8, 11 million over 5 years totaling 37 million and each option year starts at 15 million with escalators to 18-20 million with 3 million buyout.
  11. Brandon
    If we sign a starter for depth further down like a number 5 starter, we could always bring back old friend Kyle Gibson. We still need a number 2-3 starter. I would like to see what Gray is willing to sign for. His next contract will push his career earnings to over 100 million so I wonder what it will take as I think once he hits a number that the family stuff kicks in and becomes a priority. Of the tens in proximity to his home the competition could be St. Louis except they are not contenders. Tampa if they are in the market for another pitching salary which I doubt. Texas Rangers are a possibility. I don’t think the Astros are losing anyone so they are probably out. Cincinnati could RE-enter the picture. Who else would Gray be interested in signing with? Cubs? Red Sox? Baltimore? It will be interesting to see. This site was talking Jordan Montgomery as a FA too earlier. Miami needs a 3B and offensive upgrades. Is there a trade package we could put together for Meyer or another starter?
  12. Brandon
    I’m thinking the 5 year should be in the 38-42 million range. The options could be higher in the 18-20 million range. Maybe give him a player option of 10 million in case he is coming back from injury. That gives him security in case of injury and either the Twins exercise the higher amount if healthy or he becomes a free agent. That player option may allow the Twins to sign him closer to 38 million or even a little less as he is guaranteed another 10 million if he has TJ surgery or anything else happens to keep him off the mound. Or he gets his options picked up and he makes more… As good as he is, I doubt the Twins keep him beyond a 10 million salary. He will likely get traded. Right now Theilbar is the only bullpen member expected to make anything over a million and the Twins are good at putting a bullpen together on the cheap so once he reaches a certain cost expect him to be gone. But now is also a good time to appreciate the trade that brought him here. Escobar on an expiring contract.
  13. Brandon
    Looking at what we have set up for next season. we really need to focus on finding a starting pitcher in the 2-3 range, and depth. Depending on our budget which 2 or 3 of our current bench do we bring back. for the bench I think it should be Castro, Gordon, Solano and Vazquez based on budget and utility. Castro can be the 3B and SS back up and Gordon backs up CF. If we have the budget we can keep farmer as I think he will cost less than Taylor and let Gordon go. Solano is good 1B insurance and pinch hitter and getting on base. Also need a 7th or depth starter for AAA. as of right now our 6,7, and 8 starters are Festa, Dobnak, and Woods-Richardson not necessarily in that order. It would be a good idea to have someone more accomplished as the 7th starter assuming we sign a starter that pushes the order down 1 peg. I can also see us signing a low-cost reliever or two like the ones we usually do to compete for a spot in spring training. We could do this and keep the budget in the 140 million range. If we can keep the budget at 150 million we can afford Gray based on the cost estimates above,
  14. Brandon
    To move forward we would need to resign or replace Gray’s production. The rest of our free agents are more easily replaceable. Though the middle IF and bench depth can evaporate if we are not careful.
  15. Brandon
    Someone should start a multi choice poll of what they see Farmer’s trade value to be and attach some prospect examples to the choices. It will be a fun exercise. We can see how well we can gauge the market.
  16. Brandon
    The ability to get a better return depends on who else is better that is available. All I am seeing is Farmer is the best available. And by a wide enough of a margin that it will artificially boost his value. With that I think we could push for a better prospect if there are more than 1 team trying to upgrade SS. I would think someone like Festa or Rosario would be a comparable ceiling and I think the Twins could do better the Headrick as Farmer is solid both offensively and defensively. If Headrick is what’s available, we should just hold on to him. We are in a competitive window and unless the budget mandates a salary dump we don’t need to trade him. I could be wrong but I just don’t see how the Twins give him up for less and how out of several teams who need to upgrade at SS that not one of them pays up to get him. Again I could be wrong and it will be fun to see what the end result will be.
  17. Brandon
    The first 2 Domino’s have fallen for DeLeon and Stevenson. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/twins-outright-andrew-stevenson-jose-de-leon.html
  18. Brandon
    I imagine they included his playoff value too which I'm sure is pretty high with how he performed there. I'm not arguing your call on offense. but the only real drop in offense from Correa this year vs past years is his batting average. His power numbers and walk numbers were close to norms. I'll also point out his GIDP numbers sure didn't help his value either.
  19. Brandon
    Farmer didn't do anything to lower his value. The differentiator isn't anything he did. it's the change in the market. There is a scarcity of SS available in free agency. In fact, Farmer would probably be the top SS on the market if he was a free agent this year. I think if there are enough teams that need a SS, we can get a decent enough prospect for him in a trade. I believe we could get a 5-10 ranked prospect for him. That may be a little high, but we will definitely do better than a 25-30 ranked prospect. If that is the case, then Farmer is probably more valuable to us as a backup who plays almost every day. The only real reason to trade him is budgetary if the TV contract issue causes us to lower payroll to the point, we need to shed some salary. I think he is a great super sub and a solid or average option to start. Also as a starting SS he won't break the bank. There is value to team in that. Look at the current shortstops for the Dodgers, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Whitesox, and Miami. and I am sure there are more team in need. Farmer is a big upgrade on all of these teams. And if no one else is dealing a SS then Farmer is the best on the market thus raising his value due to scarcity.
  20. Brandon
    If these teams have all of these options then why didn’t they use them. I do think he is worth significantly more because there is a shift in the market due to lack of availability. It only takes one team to offer a good enough prospect. 6.5 million for an average hitting and a slightly above average fielding SS who is good for 1.5-2 WAR is worth more than 6.5 million. So you and I can agree to disagree for now and we will see what kind of return we get for him. With what your saying I wouldn’t trade him unless budget was an issue as he would be more valuable to us in that case.
  21. Brandon
    The Dodgers SS Rojas had a .612 OPS last season for a 66 OPS+. Kyle Farmer had a .719 OPS and 97 OPS +. That is a pretty significant difference in OPS. Miami’s SS had a .554 OPS which is an even bigger Lake Superior size difference on offense. Cleveland traded their SS and none of the IF or SS replacements hit above .661 last season most were below .620. Again that is a Lake Erie size difference offensively. that is 3 teams that Farmer would be a huge upgrade offensively. I’m sure there is another one or two in the same boat if I looked. I mean the Whitesox for example. Who is the stop gap SS for the Rays if Wander Isn’t around anymore? And at his price the Rays can afford him. The Dodgers or Marlins may want more offense. Especially the Marlins and they have to compete to get Farmer from us or sign one of the SS above. Who else has surplus SS to trade? Also keep in mind Farmer will be paid around 7 million which is way below his actual value. So a team on a budget like the Marlins could trade for him and probably extend him.
  22. Brandon
    They will not buy out Polanco as he too would be leaps and bounds ahead of the free agent class of 2B. He could be traded instead of Farmer. But with the build up of ready players, I suspect someone gets moved.
  23. Brandon
    Normally I would agree with you on the return. But teams like the Dodgers and Miami really need a SS. So I think they can do better. I would guess a 6-10 organization prospect or something close to that range of a prospect or he could be packaged with a prospect or two for something more. It’s good to have a surplus when the industry has a shortage of options.
  24. Brandon
    The dodgers could use a good SS. So could the Marlins. Who is the SS in Cleveland now? I’m sure I could find another team or too where a slightly above average defender with average offense is a big upgrade over what they have now.
  25. Brandon
    Farmer would be the top rated SS if he was a free agent. There are many teams he would be their starter. polanco would be the top 2B and one of the top position players available too. Same with Kepler. We have players we could trade for pitching this offseason because of unusual circumstances. But you’re right we need to develop our own starting pitching eventually. I would rather have a top rated pitching staff than those prospects and Arraez.and Arraez is one of my favorite players. I would make that Gray trade again in a heartbeat.
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