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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    He's two seasons removed from a 13-7, 31 starts, 168 innings pitched and 3.19 ERA season. He had a couple other decent years as a starting pitcher before that. Granted, the last two years have been injury-filled, but I'd assume the Twins have had the opportunity to 'look under the hood.' If he is healthy, he may well be part of the rotation, at least at some point in the year. They'll probably need 7 or 8 starting pitchers by the end of the season anyway. They traded for him, so it's a little different from some of the free agent pitcher 'dumpster dives' of the past.
  2. arby58
    ESPN grades the trade A- for the Twins and C for the Mariners. Apparently a lot of baseball people aren't as high on Polanco, after various injuries, 'coming into his prime.' If the Twins are going to promote Lee, there simply aren't enough at bats at second base for Lee and Julien plus Polanco. This is when his trade value is highest, given his two years of team control. Polanco was going to be moved. The relief pitcher the Twins got strikes me as the key piece (besides the top 100 prospect). It suggests they plan to leave Varland in the rotation rather than putting him in 7th or 8th inning roles (which is where the Mariners used Topa). The back end of the bullpen, with Stewart, Theilbar, Jax, Topa, and Duran, looks strong and deep.
  3. arby58
    ESPN grades the trade as an A- for the Twins and a C for the Mariners. Desclafini is probably the third piece from the Twins perspective. As ESPN writes, "Topa was a major contributor last season for a bullpen that finished with the fourth-best ERA in the majors, posting a 2.61 ERA over 75 appearances." They also refer to Gonzalez as 'a prospect of some note.'
  4. arby58
    I've long felt they would deal Polanco but not Kepler - they have far less depth in the outfield than the infield and few corner outfielders 'on the verge' in AAA. I still feel that way.
  5. arby58
    Yeah, let's not give them credit for putting together a decent team last year and one with a bunch of exciting young players this year. I was to games last year and had a great time - I expect the same this year. But I'll stay home to 'prove a point.' Not.
  6. arby58
    Polanco is a good player, but he's got injury concerns as well, isn't getting any younger, and is no more than an average defender. Topa was a decent reliever last year, and DeSclafini has had his moments. With a decent prospect and Seattle sending back some salary money, it seems about right. I was reading a transcript of a chat about baseball trade rumors, and the expert who does these made the point that hometown fans often overvalue their players for trade purposes. It takes two to make a trade, and my guess this is about Polanco's value at the moment.
  7. arby58
    The difference with Morris is they didn't have to trade for his one year of control, so it wasn't a zero sum game. Here, you would be giving up a hitter who figures to be batting at the top of the order in 2024 - that's pretty important too.
  8. arby58
    I don't doubt he is a great pitcher, and I actually think FanGraphs rating of him (19) is a bit low - but he's not top 5. Yes, I would love to have him on the Twins, but I think people are undervaluing Julien as an asset. A rookie who puts up a 130 OPS+ (and not a super small sample) is pretty impressive. By comparison, Luis Arraez' OPS+ last year was 133 - and, as already mentioned, All-Star Semien's was 122. I've heard some people raise the specter of Jose Miranda, and sure, that's possible (although Miranda was hurt last year). Still, Miranda's 2022 season carried an OPS+ of 114 - still considerably below 130. Miranda also had 483 plate appearances to Julien's 338, yet Julien hit one more home run and scored 15 more runs. Julien had a far better season in 2023 than Miranda in 2022. Yes, 'the future is now' but Julien is part of the 'now' and six years of his 'now' is worth far more than one of Burnes.
  9. arby58
    Interesting to see how 'over 6 innings a start' aligns with Fan Graphs. There were 13 pitchers who pitched at least 6 innings per game last year. Nine of them ranked in the FanGraphs top 20, where Burnes was 19th.
  10. arby58
    He had 408 plate appearances for the Twins and another 170 for St. Paul. They weren't hiding him much. He was also a rookie - you would expect some additional improvement, as he was only 24 last year.
  11. arby58
    Based on 2023 performance, FanGraphs places him 19th. For them, number one was Wheeler, Gray was 4th, Cole 5th, Lopez 10th, Snell 14th, just to name some well known names.
  12. arby58
    Last year, in about 2/3rds of a full year of at bats, Julien had WAR of 2.6. He also had a 130 OPS+, which compares nicely to Texas Rangers star second baseman Marcus Semien's 122 from last year. So, extrapolate that WAR to a full season and you get 3.9. Burnes is a fine pitcher, and his 10-8 record, 194 IP, 200 Ks, etc. resulted in a WAR of 3.5. Sorry, I'm not giving up six years of team control of a player with Julien's level of performance for one year of 30 starts by Burnes.
  13. arby58
    Right - a lot of activity is still on hold because of the expired TV contract and unsigned Scott Boros free agent clients. Neither of those is really hole digging on the part of the Twins front office.
  14. arby58
    If it's Julien for one year of Burnes, the short answer is no. The long answer is "Hades" No.
  15. arby58
    It's hard to get too excited about the back end of a 40 man roster. That said, Severino had a big year offensively last year - at both AA and AAA. Brooks Lee is considered one of the team's top prospects, and while he and Severino spent about the same amount of time at AA and AAA last year, Severino was by far the more impactful offensive player at both levels. I know, Lee is better defensively and doesn't strike out as much (and is two years younger) but compare some offensive categories: combined OPS: Severino .898, Lee .808; HRs : Severino 51, Lee 16; RBIs they each had 84; runs Severino 80, Lee 84. Notably, they are both switch hitters, but Lee wasn't very good against LHP last year (.608 OPS versus .860 against RHP). Lee, on the other hand, was practically the same - .901 OPS versus RHP and .889 against LHP. Take a long look at him in spring training.
  16. arby58
    Yep, missed that one.
  17. arby58
    None since Mauer in the first round (although Jeffers was a second round pick). Before that, Matt LeCroy in 1997, Jason Veritek in 1993 (although they could not sign him), and Jeff Reed in 1980. Would have been interesting to see what might have happened had they signed Veritek. This is all conjecture, of course, but he hit the majors in 1998 and became the Red Sox' regular catcher in 1999. He wasn't in Mauer's class as a hitter, but he was a solid regular player. My guess is the Twins would have still drafted Mauer number 1.
  18. arby58
    Completely agree with this analysis. I've said it before and will say it again: one batting title as a catcher is outstanding, given the wear and tear on hands and legs (not to mention foul balls to the face mask), and three (in four years) is phenomenal. His MVP season was equally phenomenal. His peak-years JAWS score places him 7th all-time among catchers. Minnesota fans will never see that level of performance from a catcher again - at least not in my life.
  19. arby58
    You nicely summarized Joe Mauer as a class act. I grew up watching another class act as a young boy - Harmon Killebrew. They were different players but similar people - both humble, kind, soft spoken, but tremendous competitors. Joe made it look so easy that some casual fans took that as nonchalance, and that's too bad. That's what happens sometimes when you are a supremely gifted athlete who probably could have made the HOF in two sports - and at least played D1 ball in three. I'm perfectly happy to debate Joe's on-field HOF-worthy accomplishments with anyone. When you put up with the tremendous wear and tear on your body that catching does, and you win 3 batting titles in a stretch of 4 years, when no other modern-day catcher has won more than one, and you combine it with 3 Gold Gloves, 5 silver sluggers, 6 All-Star games, an MVP and 4 times in the top 10 in MVP voting, all as a catcher - that's enough. JAWS agrees, placing Mauer as the 7th best catcher of all-time. That's a Hall of Famer.
  20. arby58
    IF they get a pitcher who can eat innings (you'd certainly like 170 as Sears provided) and be reasonably effective, they might consider moving either Varland or Paddock to the BP, where they both have the stuff that can make them an effective high leverage pitcher.
  21. arby58
    That's an understatement. Hicks had so much trouble from the left side at the end of his prior Twins service that he briefly stopped switch hitting.
  22. arby58
    Sooner or later there is going to have to be a decision on who plays regularly and where. Lee is a bit of the odd man out at the moment, IF Julien is seen as the regular 2B and Correa and Lewis are at SS and 3B. While most of the scouts would agree with the first three in the pecking order for the Twins, I suspect that Lee could wind up elsewhere via trade more quickly than 1 or 3 on the list.
  23. arby58
    There's a very nice analysis of Lee at MiLB Analysis by Nick Richards. He delves into the numbers for last season and has the warning that "The scouts love him, but so do lefty pitchers. Was he really climbing out of the Triple-A crater, or was that noise?" He then suggests that "Brooks Lee needs to repeat Triple-A and do at the level what he did at Double-A: slowly but surely improve." He concludes with "So he will get on base and have a good BA, but his power will be only solid, and don't expect speed. A decent prospect, but not a world-changing one." That sounds about right to me. The difference between Julien and Lee is Julien isn't a prospect - he proved to be an excellent MLB hitter in 2023, with a 130 OPS+. If the Twins had a team full of 130 OPS+ hitters last year, they might have won the World Series.
  24. arby58
    I will grant you that Martin is much more 'fleet of foot' than Arraez. Still, if you mostly hit singles, you generally need at least two more constructive offensive things to happen to score a run (unless the guy behind you is a big bopper and hits a HR). You need two more singles, a single and a double or a double and a single, a stolen base and a base hit, a sacrifice and a base hit, etc. I will also grant you that Martin may steal his way into scoring position, and that is a plus - as it was with Taylor last year. We will see about Martin, but so far he looks pretty punch less and doesn't hit a high enough average to compensate for that.
  25. arby58
    If he were coming out of high school, the expectations would be lower, but he played 3 years of Division 1 college baseball. I'm not down on him, but I think Baseball Prospectus' ranking of him (52) is about right. He isn't a phenom. He needs a full year at AAA, and then we'll see. I'm a bird in the hand guy, and the bird in the hand, having done it at the MLB level (130 OPS+ last year), is Julien.
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