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dex8425

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Everything posted by dex8425

  1. dex8425
    I picked 84 wins preseason. I figured that'd be second, maybe third in the division. After the trade deadline I figured they'd win the division though.
  2. dex8425
    Yeah, this thread is actually about a major league baseball team, not high school baseball. We have MLB data about sac bunting, which should inform your decisions about bunting. Sac bunting is seldom a good idea. https://danblewett.com/run-expectancy-bunting-bad/ High school data would be interesting too-the defense is worse (you should bunt) but run scoring is higher (you shouldn't bunt because you reduce chances for that "big inning"). There's also a larger discreptancy between your good hitters and your poor hitters, especially for, say Janesville Waldorf Pemberton and Two Harbors high school:) I think I probably would bunt more in high school/little league, especially with poor hitters.
  3. dex8425
    Look at the data. Moving runners up, while creating outs, reduces run expectancy. The out is never worth it, unless you are ONLY playing for one run, AND the guy at the plate is a good bunter, AND the guy at the plate is a bad hitter, AND the guy up next is a bad hitter. Playing for only one run is a very seldom occurrence, but we've seen the Twins do it, off the top of my head, with Jeffers. Maybe with Gordon once earlier in the season. https://danblewett.com/run-expectancy-bunting-bad/
  4. dex8425
    Last year was definitely worse. This year most (myself included) picked us to finish 2nd or 3rd in the division. Vegas odds were pretty close. Last year was a huge disappointment.
  5. dex8425
    You really want Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer to pitch longer into games? Pagan first time through the order is better than Bundy the third time through the lineup. "Twins starters have allowed a .305 batting average and .523 slugging percentage when facing hitters for the third time in a game this season, which is especially terrible considering they’re typically only allowed to stay in when they’re rolling. By comparison, their most-maligned reliever, Emilio Pagán, has allowed a .261 batting average and .498 slugging percentage." https://theathletic.com/3571064/2022/09/09/twins-pull-starting-pitchers-early/
  6. dex8425
    Exactly. And why did people pick them to finish third? The rotation and bullpen question marks. The rotation was terrible and so was the bullpen. Nobody predicted the Twins would have the worst injury luck in MLB. But everyone knew Bundy and Archer were not going to be quality starters.
  7. dex8425
    The position player with the highest WAR has been awarded the AL MVP in 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2021. That's pretty much the criteria nowadays.
  8. dex8425
    St. Louis has been thrown around as a fit. I can definitely see that. They would have three hall of famers in their infield, which would be nuts. Then they could move Edman to 2b. Yankees and Dodgers fans HATE Correa. I can't see that working out. The Angels already have the Trout deal (good) and Rendon (bad) and want to extend Ohtani. Correa also wants to go to a contender, and I doubt he sees them as a contender. I mean the Angels stink. Giants-Yes. Mariners-Yes. Red Sox-Yes. Phillies-Yes. CWS-No.
  9. dex8425
    Bunts don't create runs. They create outs.
  10. dex8425
    Well that's really comforting...
  11. dex8425
    Yeah, I don't think 5/200 gets a deal done but Boras probably doesn't hang up the phone....At least I hope not. Zac Gallen from the DBacks would probably qualify? Pablo Lopez from MIA?
  12. dex8425
    AK is just a complete wild-card question mark with that wrist. Urshela can be relied upon. I don't think Miranda would ever be even an average third baseman. I bring Gio back, hope that AK can be healthy but you can't count on that at this point.
  13. dex8425
    If 65 points of OPS difference is "almost the same" then I've got a house in Lincoln Nebraska to sell you. It's "almost the same" as a mansion on Lake Minnetonka. For reference, 65 points of OPS difference is the difference between 2002 Doug Mientkiewicz and Cristian Guzman. One was an above league average hitter, the other one wasn't. Or the difference between 2008 Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel.
  14. dex8425
    We do know. Take April-May, and repeat for another four months. I believe we were on 90-95 win pace.
  15. dex8425
    Pretty good summation of what I'm thinking as well. #2 might happen just because there aren't enough teams in the market for a long-term superstar shortstop at a high price for Swanson, Correa, Turner and Bogaerts to all get a 300+ deal. Boston? St Louis? Dodgers? Uhh...Yankees? Braves? I guess I don't see the Braves or Cardinals shelling out a 300 million dollar long-term deal. The Dodgers like flexibility too.
  16. dex8425
    Except for Correa, who is playing himself into a huge payday next year with some big market team.
  17. dex8425
    Buxton doesn't have a plate approach to get on base enough to steal 20 bags a year, let alone 40. He's a low obp guy who is more likely to hit a homer or double than a single, so few opportunities to steal. His high slug approach is still extremely valuable though!
  18. dex8425
    Did you watch the game? Megill for three hitters had a waaay better chance than Bundy facing the lineup the third time through the order. Bundy was getting hammered. He was lucky to escape with only 2 runs allowed. Have to win the game. You're ahead. All the bullpen guys are available. Not a head scratcher for me at all last night.
  19. dex8425
    No, the original article simply states the fact that the Twins lost the 2nd most WAR to injuries of all MLB teams this year. Miranda wasn't being counted on either. But if he was hurt, he impacts your depth.
  20. dex8425
    They need to stop drafting Big ten pitchers, period. Big ten pitchers seldom make it as starters in the MLB, for some unknown reason.
  21. dex8425
    It was also like 35 degrees at the Kershaw game. I was there. It was frigid.
  22. dex8425
    Nobody would dispute that Rodon and Wheeler are both #1's too. Rodon is going to receive Cy young votes for the second year in a row, and Wheeler almost won the cy young last year. This year he's been elite again. Both of those guys are a step up from Berrios or Sonny Gray.
  23. dex8425
    That is some odd goal-post moving and analysis there.
  24. dex8425
    Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan will be healthy. The problem is that the Twins have a #2 starter, a couple #3's, and a TON of #5/fringe type starters who could be league average, or not. There's only one great bullpen piece. The only guy in the lineup who can carry the lineup is going to be hurt more games than not.
  25. dex8425
    I think Maeda will presumably make the rotation opening day next year, but who knows. Depth will be needed either way. Paddack also could be a solid #3 but he's a complete wild card with injuries at this point.
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