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dex8425

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Everything posted by dex8425

  1. dex8425
    baseball trade values says Twins give up 32.7 million in value and get 38million in value. That's not as far off as I thought it'd be. Throw in David Festa and it's a deal. I'd do that in a heartbeat.
  2. dex8425
    It depends who the catcher is. Usually the catcher is getting the calls from the pitching coach. Yadier Molina makes his own calls but most catchers don't.
  3. dex8425
    Yep, me too. If Twins don't sign Correa I don't really want Bogaerts. He's not a good defender. Just play Farmer until Lewis is ready to come back up.
  4. dex8425
    Baserunning runs are part of the computation, so steals and taking an extra base are definitely considered. Defense is also part of WAR (fielding runs). Home runs are not weighted heavily-getting on base is though. Reaching on errors is included in the on base calculation. The calculation also considers strikeouts as different than other outs. So your hypothetical player B is better suited to have a higher WAR than a three true outcome first baseman, and that definitely shows in the calculations. If you're a first baseman, you better hit--a lot--to be valuable. That's also what teams pay for.
  5. dex8425
    I'd include Jake Cave in that "heart" category as well...but nobody is going to argue he should be an every day MLB player.
  6. dex8425
    So what one stat do you prefer for relief pitchers that's more revealing to a pitcher's overall performance? Saves? ERA? FIP?
  7. dex8425
    There is. That's why Andrelton Simmons, despite being an average to poor hitter his whole career, has an outside shot at being in the HOF some day. Positional adjustment for this year per 1350 innings played: C: +9 runs SS: +7 runs 2B: +3 runs CF: +2.5 runs 3B: +2 runs RF: -7 runs LF: -7 runs 1B: -9.5 runs DH: -15 runs
  8. dex8425
    Agreed. Defensive metrics are really difficult to trust, and you can't really just only use one system to evaluate total player worth, but that's what Fwar and Bwar do. So players are always going to argue whatever supports their case, just like it was before. I don't see why this change really helps either side. I guess it provides some clarity, maybe? For relievers, WPA is way more important than Fwar or Bwar.
  9. dex8425
    The Dodgers would need to beat the Twins offer because of CA income tax. Big reason why Seager signed with Texas instead of LAD. I still agree with you that Turner re-signs with LAD, and if he doesn't, the Twins will be outbid by some other team not named the dodgers. Because the Cubs stink, they'd have to beat the Twins offer by quite a bit. Perhaps Atlanta, maybe the Orioles? Cardinals?
  10. dex8425
    Yeah, I think it's close but I think he will get a 300 million plus offer from at least one team. It might be a lower AAV though, so it's possible Correa takes a frontloaded contract with player opt outs?
  11. dex8425
    Imagine what the Twins winning percentage would have been if Correa got hurt and Gordon or Palacios was playing shortstop every day. Or Polanco. Would've been ugly. The Dodgers were deeper this year, but didn't have vintage Jansen-led bullpen, or 3 top starters. They started Gonsolin who wasn't stretched out. If Buehler was healthy I think it makes the series different? Idk.
  12. dex8425
    The problem with that route is two-fold as I see it. 1. There aren't many/any pitchers available at the caliber of Rodon, Verlander, DeGrom, etc on the trade market. If the Brewers sell, maybe Woodruff? 2. The necessity of giving up multiple top prospects who will soon be cheap, cost-controlled contributors at the MLB level in order to trade for even a #2-3 pitcher. Just think about what the Twins would have to give up to get, say Sandy Alcantara. Would you give up Lewis, Brooks Lee, Miranda, Larnach, Bailey Ober and Austin Martin/Jorge Polanco for Alcantara? I don't even think the Marlins would do that. I'd rather sign Correa and Rodon. They just cost money. If Lewis and Lee turn out to be stars, great. You can trade them to fill other needs if you can't find them MLB at bats.
  13. dex8425
    Well the Padres (a mid-market team, certainly not a big market team) signed Tatis and Machado to huge long-term deals. Machado's deal has turned out pretty well so far. And look, the Padres are in the NLCS.
  14. dex8425
    Really excited to watch more of Varland and SMW at Target Field in 2023. Congrats to Louie. You are making Minnesotans proud.
  15. dex8425
    You don't think Berrios fared well? 131 million dollars over 7 years guaranteed is a lot of money.
  16. dex8425
    Gallen has the injury UCL tag right? I'd want none of that. I suspect most here would feel the same.
  17. dex8425
    Definitely not. Substitute Ober for Varland and that probably gets it done. Cost for Alcantara would be monstrous. It would be a Soto-like trade. Lewis, Brooks Lee, Larnach and Ober gets you close. I don't think either team would do that deal anyway.
  18. dex8425
    Taylor Rogers was actually worse than Pagan was this year. So neither team won. I would've been ticked if they signed Cueto, turns out he proved me wrong.
  19. dex8425
    Yeah, this thread is actually about a major league baseball team, not high school baseball. We have MLB data about sac bunting, which should inform your decisions about bunting. Sac bunting is seldom a good idea. https://danblewett.com/run-expectancy-bunting-bad/ High school data would be interesting too-the defense is worse (you should bunt) but run scoring is higher (you shouldn't bunt because you reduce chances for that "big inning"). There's also a larger discreptancy between your good hitters and your poor hitters, especially for, say Janesville Waldorf Pemberton and Two Harbors high school:) I think I probably would bunt more in high school/little league, especially with poor hitters.
  20. dex8425
    Look at the data. Moving runners up, while creating outs, reduces run expectancy. The out is never worth it, unless you are ONLY playing for one run, AND the guy at the plate is a good bunter, AND the guy at the plate is a bad hitter, AND the guy up next is a bad hitter. Playing for only one run is a very seldom occurrence, but we've seen the Twins do it, off the top of my head, with Jeffers. Maybe with Gordon once earlier in the season. https://danblewett.com/run-expectancy-bunting-bad/
  21. dex8425
    Last year was definitely worse. This year most (myself included) picked us to finish 2nd or 3rd in the division. Vegas odds were pretty close. Last year was a huge disappointment.
  22. dex8425
    You really want Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer to pitch longer into games? Pagan first time through the order is better than Bundy the third time through the lineup. "Twins starters have allowed a .305 batting average and .523 slugging percentage when facing hitters for the third time in a game this season, which is especially terrible considering they’re typically only allowed to stay in when they’re rolling. By comparison, their most-maligned reliever, Emilio Pagán, has allowed a .261 batting average and .498 slugging percentage." https://theathletic.com/3571064/2022/09/09/twins-pull-starting-pitchers-early/
  23. dex8425
    Exactly. And why did people pick them to finish third? The rotation and bullpen question marks. The rotation was terrible and so was the bullpen. Nobody predicted the Twins would have the worst injury luck in MLB. But everyone knew Bundy and Archer were not going to be quality starters.
  24. dex8425
    The position player with the highest WAR has been awarded the AL MVP in 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2021. That's pretty much the criteria nowadays.
  25. dex8425
    St. Louis has been thrown around as a fit. I can definitely see that. They would have three hall of famers in their infield, which would be nuts. Then they could move Edman to 2b. Yankees and Dodgers fans HATE Correa. I can't see that working out. The Angels already have the Trout deal (good) and Rendon (bad) and want to extend Ohtani. Correa also wants to go to a contender, and I doubt he sees them as a contender. I mean the Angels stink. Giants-Yes. Mariners-Yes. Red Sox-Yes. Phillies-Yes. CWS-No.
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