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Road trip

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Everything posted by Road trip

  1. Road trip
    Overall an excellent post on a complex topic. My only quibble would be the bolded part. There are very few if any players worth as much as the poorest owners (Ohtani is an outlier, nearly double the second largest contract, and he doesn't technically have most of that wealth yet... it is expected earnings). The Marlins are currently ranked as the least valuable MLB franchise, for a total of 1 billion dollars. The top 10 principal owners are all worth multiple billions of dollars. But your overall points stand and are good ones. Both MLB players and owners do very well financially, and prices for everything from tickets to ballpark beers will remain high because the market customers (fans) are quite willing to pay the prices being charged.
  2. Road trip
    Kirilloff to DH is quite depressing, given what we had hoped for him a couple of year ago. That he was a sub-par outfielder has long been known, but apparently turning him into an average 1B is also a lost cause? Santana at 1b every day is likely to be a big problem, absent a time machine. He hasn't hit well since 2019, especially against right handed pitchers. I know, as Twins fans we remember him as a feared hitter for Cleveland, but a lot of water has gone under the bridge since those days. Maybe he will have a last gasp bounce back season, but that is far more of a hope than a viable plan A. Honestly I'd place higher odds on a now healthy Miranda having viable offensive production at 1B than the 38 year old Santana.
  3. Road trip
    Well, yes, frequently, but if they can get two months of Brock Stewartesque production out of him before he breaks I'll call it a win. There have been a small number reclamation projects that have worked long term. I think you would have to consider Thielbar a success, and they called him back out of retirement after a five year absence from the majors. On the position player side, they seem to have found something in Willie Castro who was cast off by the Tigers. But I do somewhat agree. This is a lottery ticket signing. Small investment, small chance it pays off.
  4. Road trip
    I mean, I want to believe, but after Duran I only kinda, sorta believe the pen will be impressive. Jax basically has a two year track record. It's been mostly good, but there have been bad spells, as recently as last May. I think you can pencil him in as a solid B+ reliever, so of course he has value but I don't consider him elite yet. Stewart, love him, but he had a good 2 month stretch last year followed by a 2 month trip to the DL. Oh, and he was hurt for all of 2021 and most of 2022. I want to believe he will be healthy, but nothing in his recent past suggests he will make it through the year. He's the relief pitching version of Buxton. Thielbar is 37. *Shrugs*, could be good for another year, or could be near the end. Father time is undefeated... I'm also optimistic about Topa, but again, the sample size is small. What the Twins do have is a large number of bullpen pitchers who will possibly be good. If Rocco and his staff can quickly identify the right ones, great. I suspect we will see both some successes, as well as some abject failures and injuries. Hopefully more of the former than the latter. And of course the bullpen HAS to be good, because only in our wildest dreams is this year's starting rotation better than last year's rotation.
  5. Road trip
    Hard for me to like this trade. Maybe Noah Miller never learns to hit, but trading a recent first-rounder for a 29 year old backup outfielder who has pretty much proven to be a below-average MLB bat doesn't seem a good path to improvement. For a little more money we could have just re-signed Taylor and kept Miller. If money is so tight then give Martin a chance. Martin might hit well, while we pretty much know that Margot will be below average. I fear this means a summer of watching Margot play a lot of LF while Wallner sits on the bench. I'd live with this if the alternative was a proven hitter, but for Margot? Not a great scenario.
  6. Road trip
    Outstanding article. I've never really thought about the lack of high end international starters. This explains a large part of that story. Your guess regarding college opportunities is probably partially correct, but I think even more important is simply the age difference. International free agents can be signed at 15 (they have to turn 16 prior to Sept 1). Heck, these are High School sophomores in the US! You could argue that MLB should move the age limit up, but this potentially hurts the hundreds of International kids who at least get an opportunity to make a little money in the lowest levels of minor league ball, vs living a life of poverty in Venezuela, Panama, DR, etc. If you force them to wait until age 17 to sign, the opportunity may be gone. I'm not certain there is an easy answer. The odds are long for any athlete to be an elite starter. Clearly they are a little longer for the International signees.
  7. Road trip
    For certain, the "non-optional" guys make movement somewhat less likely in terms of sending them down. The flip side is that they are pretty old as a group, with most of them having a history of spending some time on the IL. For example, I believe Thielbar has been on the IL 5 times since 2021. At his age its simply to be expected he will make another trip or two to the IL at some point this year. Stewart, Topa, Jackson, Alcala, and Staumont all have some histories of health problems. I'd love to make it through a year with minimal injuries, but recent Twins history tells me to expect many of these guys to spend time on the IL.
  8. Road trip
    It's almost mind-boggling, but the number is much higher than 14. Last year the Twins used 29 pitchers. Only 6 of them were exclusively starters, leaving 23 for bullpen work. Oh, and 2023 was a good year. In 2022 the Twins used an astonishing 38 pitchers! You see numbers like this across the league. You can't have too much pitching depth. Some of us remember the good ole days when a team would get by with only a dozen total pitchers for the entire year! That isn't enough to get through April anymore. We will need every one of the guys mentioned in this article this year, along with a large number of others who didn't make this list.
  9. Road trip
    I'm optimistic that Wallner's defense in LF will improve as he becomes accustomed to playing on that side. LF is different than RF. The throws are different, the ball breaks off the bat a little differently, and it can be just a bit disorienting playing on the left side of the diamond after spending your entire life on the right side. There's a reason Kepler wants to stay in RF where he is comfortable.. In a failure of player development, Wallner was never prepped to play LF in the minors (a grand total of 11 games prior to 2023) while racking up hundreds of games in RF. He went from looking extremely clumsy in LF early last year to just-a-little clumsy by the end of the season. If increased reps and experience can get Wallner to "average" on his jumps and reads, we could have a pretty good left fielder thanks to his cannon of an arm.
  10. Road trip
    Agree. I also look at Lewis and see a young guy with a big frame. He's still listed at 200lbs, but that is an old number. It wouldn't shock me if he fills out with just a bit more muscle and ends up playing at the 215-220lbs range, which is really large for a 2nd baseman. I'd keep him at 3rd.
  11. Road trip
    Well, I don't really disagree with your point regarding player development in the Ryan years. It wasn't great, but it wasn't ZERO. Wilson Ramos was traded away for Capps, which was unfortunate, but Ramos was developed and had great value. The Twins just made a bad trade with that value. (and Ramos had the misfortune to get continually hurt after a great rookie season in Washington) Denard Span and Ben Revere both had decent, but not great careers. Span unfortunately didn't bring much value back when traded. Revere got us several good years of Trevor May. Brian Dozier is arguably one of the great development stories in Twin history, as he was never considered more than a middling prospect, but had a few great years. You could add Trevor Plouffe to the position player list as well, and possibly Danny Valencia and the legendary Drew Butera, although we are kind of stretching the boundaries of "successful" at this point. Glen Perkins is probably the lone pitcher from that era that would be remembered as a development success. That may be the real problem. No quality starter was developed in that entire decade (Liriano came up just a hair earlier).
  12. Road trip
    I guess my point is *IF* the Twins have significant money to spend, I hope it goes to pitching. I'd rather roll with Miranda/Kirilloff/Bargain Bin at 1B than rely on Woods Richardson/Sands/Bargain Bin in the starting rotation. We will have to trust youth someplace, and I think the young hitters are ahead of the young starting pitchers. And believe me, I hope my pessimism regarding next year's payroll is wrong... but that lost TV revenue is really a budget hole. I don't know how you do a short term fix for the missing 55M revenue stream without payroll budget cuts.
  13. Road trip
    No, if I'm honest, I don't think they will spend big on pitching. They'll get a veteran bullpen guy, relatively cheap, essentially replacing Pagan's salary slot. They might sign or trade for a #3 starter hoping they will turn him into a #2. More likely they sign a #4, hoping he can become a #3. I agree that one of Polanco or Kepler is gone, and possibly both. Possibly add Farmer to the list too. Vazquez, I sort of hope they find someone to take his salary but I suspect most of the league thinks his bat is cooked. Most catchers age badly, and he isn't young. I mean, it seems apparent that they intend to cut salary. I hate it, but also understand it if they can't get some kind of stable and predictable revenue from local TV. I don't think they are surrendering, but do think it is going to be more of a "buy a lottery ticket and hope to get lucky" kind of year. I expect them to bet on the health of Correa and Buxton (what choice do they have?). I expect them to bet on improvement from the young bats, of which there are a large number. Same with pitching, where they will hope the youngsters improve, and they mostly stay healthy? An awful lot of things will have to break right for the Twins to be a serious pennant contender next year... but it could happen. Of course with this plan, it is at least equally likely that they win about 80 games and finish 2nd or 3rd in the Central. I've probably been a Twins fan for too long. Hope is in short supply. At least I'm not a Vikings fan 😆
  14. Road trip
    Room in the lineup? Yes, there is likely room, especially if Buxton plays the field instead of DH-ing (I'm a dreamer..). Room in the (reduced) payroll? I fear not. If we have to save funds (unfortunately), I'd try to save at 1B, where Kirilloff, Miranda, an untested minor league guy (Severino), or a non roster spring training contract (Hosmer? Wil Myers?) could potentially give us coverage on the cheap. And frankly I don't want to block Kirilloff if he returns healthy. If we spend money on Hoskins, it means we are getting by on additional unproven players in the starting rotation or bullpen, because payroll space is short. I'd rather spend the money on pitching.
  15. Road trip
    I understand, and agree they aren't likely to spend the savings, but I fear that if they don't trade him then somebody else that is marginally expensive will have to go who might otherwise stay (perhaps all of Polanco, Kepler, and Farmer instead of just one or two of them). Vazquez might bounce back next year... but consider the consequences if he doesn't. His contract would be untradeable in the 2024 off-season if he has another bad year. Then the Twins are really stuck for another year in 2025. I know Rocco likes to rotate catchers, and it worked well last year, but by using off-days strategically he could essentially start Jeffers 100 games and Camargo for 60. Camargo will be 25 next year, so he is probably about as ready as he is ever going to be. Both are young so you can at least hope for good health. Sign a career backup to a Triple A contract as insurance.
  16. Road trip
    I don't know if the Brewers intend to contend next year... they may be in full fire-sale mode. But if they want to contend, 2b was a black hole of dismal hitting for them last year. Maybe Brice Turang will develop, but I sure wouldn't feel much hope after he OPS'd .585 last year.
  17. Road trip
    That's the key point, bolded. I wish we could keep every valuable vet, and Polanco has value. But we can't afford to keep them all. For a mid-market team like the Twins to win 90+ games and advance in the playoffs it is imperative to get significant production from a few inexpensive players. The Twins have a couple of young infielders (Julien, Lee) who have the potential to be as good as Polanco, or perhaps even better. They cost league minimum. Better to trade a player a year too early, than a year too late. I like Polanco, but if we can get good value in return I think you have to trade from an area where there is surplus talent. We have surplus 2nd basemen. If not Polanco, you almost have to look at trading Julien or Lee. Twins need more pitching, among other things.
  18. Road trip
    I understand and respect what you are saying about the need to grow the fan base, but think I disagree. I guess, sure, the Twins could follow the ESPN entertainment route and hire a big personality similar to Pat McAfee or Steven A Smith. Hawk Harrelson would be another example. Big personalities that create controversy. More noise than substance. (And yes, I know that Hawk played MLB, but he's become a caricature). Maybe it works to increase ratings, but I prefer the insight that ex-players provide. It need not be a big name...could even be someone who never reached the majors, but I want the announcers to know more about the intricacies of the game than I do. If I wanted controversy, I'd be watching Real Housewives (or McAfee and Smith on ESPN... a station I rarely watch anymore except for live games). Baseball remains a slow game, and you have to learn it well to enjoy watching it. It helps if you've played baseball (or softball), and you understand the nuances. Getting kids to play the sport is the key for future fan interest. An outside-the-box announcing crew probably won't do much to help attract new fans, and may well annoy your core audience.
  19. Road trip
    Brooks Lee has a good chance to be a great MLB player....someday. While he breezed through A and AA, he certainly did not dominate AAA. It wasn't a huge sample size but a .738 OPS at AAA indicates to me that he needs more time in the minors to adjust to the MLB-quality breaking balls he hasn't previously faced much. Maybe he's ready in June, maybe later. Moving Lee to 1B this spring would negate one of his greatest attributes (middle infield defense) and move him all the way down the defensive spectrum where we HOPE he is ready to hit MLB pitching? No thanks... plenty of other internal options or cheap free agent signings to hold the spot until Kirilloff is healed.
  20. Road trip
    Well, they fired the head trainer last year.... and this year we were yet again ravaged by injuries. Sometimes a change doesn't produce desired results. I would have been quite open to considering new hitting coach. I'm ok with the pitching side of the equation.
  21. Road trip
    In my mind Gladden is one of the hardest Twins to rate on any all time Twins list. His fiery nature and winning attitude were widely recognized as key components of the '87-91 era. He was a productive player from 87-89, but then really fell off a cliff at age 32, which isn't surprising for a player with his skill set. Leg injuries were part of the story, but some of it was likely just the aging process. Gladdens defense was good early, but he never had much of an arm and his range was merely average by 1990. He was, as you noted, a threat to steal bases... and to get thrown out a lot. 9 times caught stealing in 24 attempts (1991) is pretty bad. His speed was diminished at this point. Gladden is fondly remembered for many reasons. He scored the winning run in game 7. He's a big personality, and has been broadcasting Twins games for years now. He was (I think) an unquestioned leader during that era. He hustled and played the game "the right way". But he wasn't a particularly valuable player after 1989. An astoundingly bad -1.1 WAR in 1990, and still bad .8 WAR in 1991. I can't ignore that. And I can't ignore that the Twins were quite content to let him go at the end of the season, despite his contributions to a World Series win. Nobody much complained, as it was pretty obvious his career was nearing an end. If I were to combine the two teams? I'd put Shane Mack in LF (he started there roughly a third of the time in 1991 so slow-footed Randy Bush could play RF, so this isn't a stretch), and put Kepler in RF. I'm not sitting Shane Mack behind anyone, including Kepler (who I like...just less).
  22. Road trip
    I mean, I'd like that too, but Sonny finished in top 5 in MLB in pitcher WAR. He'll finish in top 5 in the Cy Young vote too, I expect. He finished 3rd in ERA. Zach Wheeler, Spencer Strider, Gerrit Cole, Verlander, etc aren't going to be available, so just who is this "better than Sonny Gray" pitcher that you hope to obtain? Gray had a below par game vs Houston. Who knows what would have happened if Kirrilof catches that grounder? I'm not going to hold that start against him when I judge his entire body of work. I'd make every effort to sign Gray, with the knowledge that it will almost certainly take 3 years, possibly 4. Twins probably can't afford to get into a bidding war with the large market teams, but maybe they will pass because of his age (though I admit this seems unlikely). Gray is fine as a #2 starter, especially because it is realistic to hope for improvement from Ryan and Ober as the #3 and #4 guys.
  23. Road trip
    I don't know what the long term plan is for replacing Blyleven with a full time analyst, or even if there is a plan. This year we got a little Smalley, a little Morneau, a little Perkins, and a small dose of Hawkins. They all had their strengths (I guess) and weaknesses. All are growing into their role, potentially. I'm not certain I really have a favorite yet, though I'm confident it isn't Smalley. If you told me a week ago they decided to hire AJ for the booth, I would probably have rolled my eyes and sighed with dismay/disgust, because his rep as a player was simply that he was a thoroughly annoying human being. Well, I am surprised. Perhaps AJ has mellowed, perhaps his on-field persona wasn't his true self, or perhaps he created a new persona for the broadcast booth. Regardless, having seen him do it in a crowded 3 person booth... I guess I'd be ok with him as the Twins primary analyst.
  24. Road trip
    Good article, good summary of the season. Hard as it is this morning, it was a better than expected year. I didn't believe the Twins would make the playoffs in March. I was wrong. I doubted the Twins would hang on to win the division in July. I was wrong. I hoped but doubted that the Twins would beat the Blue Jays in round 1. I was very wrong. I hoped a little but kinda suspected and feared Houston would sweep the Twins. But I was wrong. Then I got sucked in, and believed after Lopez beat the Astros in game 2. I thought, going back home, with Gray on the mound for game 3, and Lopez available for game 5? The Twins have a pretty good chance to advance. I believed. Damn it. They got me again.
  25. Road trip
    All this sentence tells me is that you aren't a tennis fan, and you didn't watch the French, US, or Australian Open this year, comparing it to Wimbledon where player complaints SLOWED DOWN THE ACTION and frankly made both players and umpires look bad. Nobody is talking about adding replay. No game time will be added by robo umps. You are setting up straw man arguments and knocking them down. Peace, out, done.
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