bean5302

On may 9, 2025 I was in Greensboro, NC watching my grandson's team play in the North Carolina High School Baseball Playoffs.  I met Luke Napleton from Chicago. He had been playing for a semi-pro team in High Point, NC, called The Rockers. (High Point used to manufacture a lot of furniture and has furniture markets every year.) Frank Viola is the pitching coach for the Rockers. Luke told me he had just been signed by the Twins and was going to Ft. Myers this weekend. He expected to either play at Ft. Myers or at Cedar Rapids. He was with the Rockers only a short time, but was hitting .571 (12 for 21) with 2 doubles and 2 home runs. I told him I was the biggest Twins' fan in North Carolina. He played at the University of Louisville in 2024 and hit .320 with 11 HR. 

This is a comparison I’ve been wanting to tackle for a long time. In part due to the legendary status of Johan Santana amongst Twins fans. Santana was the greatest pitcher in MLB for a very short time, and a lot of Twins fans look back with a fascination focused on a Twins starter who was a legitimate ace posting up historically impressive ERAs for years in a row. A pitcher who was nationally recognized as peerless. What about Frank Viola, though? While fans recognize the name and revere the World Series Championship Viola brought the team in 1987, often Viola is considered a far cry from the dominant rotation arm Santana was. How does Viola really stack up vs. the legend of Johan?

Peaks
It's not open for legitimate debate. Johan Santana was the greatest pitcher in baseball for the years 2004-2006. Santana led the AL all three years in WAR, ERA+, Strikeouts and WHIP. His dominance on the mound was rewarded with a 55-19 record over the span, never winning fewer than 16 games. In Santana’s most dominant season of 2004, Santana put up a colossal 8.7 bWAR across 228 innings with a record of 20-6 with a 2.61 ERA and an ERA+ 182. Surely Viola can’t compare, right? Probably a lot closer than you think. Viola’s 1987 and 1998 were also insane. 8.1 bWAR in 251 innings followed by 7.7 bWAR in 255 innings, a record of 17-10 followed by 24-7 with ERA’s of 2.90 and 2.64 adjusting to still gaudy ERA+ number of 159 and 154, respectively. Viola took home the 1988 Cy Young Award for his efforts, and though he was not the triple crown winner like Santana, Viola’s results were comparable to the best using today’s metrics.

Ultimately, Santana and Viola were comparable in terms of value during their peaks. Santana’s peak was higher and more obvious, but the two pitchers mirror each other pretty closely in terms of value as you stretch that peak out. Viola’s best years stretched 10 years starting with 1984’s 4.5 bWAR 3.21 ERA (ERA+ 131) season through his final great season at age 33 with the Red Sox where he pitched to a 3.14 ERA (ERA+ 148) and another 4.3 bWAR. Santana’s stretch into his transition years from 2003’s 4.1 bWAR, 3.07 ERA (ERA+ 148) start until his age 31 season where he put up 4.7 bWAR effort during the 2.98 ERA (ERA+ 131) with the Mets. In terms of value: Best single year? Santana. Best 2 years? Viola. Best 3 years? Santana. You get the picture. Isolating Santana’s 8yr peak gets you to 6.0 annual bWAR and an astonishing ERA+ 150. Isolating Viola’s 7yr that way gets him to 5.6 annual bWAR an ERA of 3.19 and an impressive ERA+ 128 dragged down by 2 mediocre seasons being clumped in there.


Career Performance
Johan Santana finished his career as a 2x Cy Young, and 4x All Star. He accumulated 51.1 bWAR and 2,025 innings pitched across 12 seasons with a stellar 3.20 ERA and a truly epic ERA+ 136. In fact, Santana’s career ERA+ 136 ties him for 26th in MLB history. The only mark against Santana is how short his career really was. That said, Santana benefitted greatly from starting off as a reliever while learning how to throw his signature changeup protecting him from pre-peak innings dragging his career results down while his shoulder injury put the kibosh on his career after his age 31 season. The truncation protected his career stats from imminent decline which was already being foreshadowed by the beginnings of up and down results and a declining K rate. Still, it’s undeniable that Santana was a rock never having a hiccup year from 2002-2010. Frank Viola’s career ended as a 1x Cy Young, 3x All Star, 1x World Series Championship, 1x World Series MVP. Viola’s 47.1 career bWAR across 2,836 innings and 15 years only slightly trails Santana. His 3.73 ERA and career ERA+ of 112 reflected his rough start, the futile attempted comebacks through age 36 totaling 4 years of negative WAR. Unlike Santana who was shielded and carefully developed, an immature Frank Viola was thrown into the fire by a desperate Twins organization in 1982, and the results reflected Viola’s fiery emotional immaturity and lack of polish. The career WAR makes it clear Viola was a true ace over a long span of years in his own right.

Post season performances
This one is all Viola. Viola pitched the Twins into the World Series and then took home the World Series MVP as the Twins won it all in 1987. Viola was 3-1 used only as a starter in the only year he saw postseason action. The Twins were 4-1 in games Viola pitched. Viola’s Game 1 vs. the Tigers was good with 7 innings and 3 ER before putting runners on in the 8th and being lifted for Reardon who made a mess. The Twins won anyway thanks to the hitters. Game 2 was a 5 inning 2 ER performance where one ER was once again the gift of the Twins’ bullpen. Viola earned the World Series MVP by pitching 3 of the 7 games, taking the mound for games 1 and game 7 allowing 1 run in 8.0 innings of work in both instances. Johan Santana got 4 separate years of chances to pitch in the post season with a consistently great Twins team and more teams making the playoffs. His record was 1-3, with the Twins often paying the price when Santana stepped onto the mound; directly being credited with losses from bullpen meltdowns. Santana’s lone win came out of the bullpen where he nearly gave up the only 2 runs the A’s scored before the Twins hitters saved the day to reverse fate. Later, in 2004 and again in 2006 as a starter, Santana pitched excellently. Unfortunately, he was out-dueled in 2 of 3 starts, and Santana was lifted from games earlier than Viola giving Gardy’s bullpen instincts too many opportunities.

Career Ends
When it comes to the end of their careers, the two pitchers are again, similar. Santana’s well documented career ending shoulder capsule tear at age 31 failed to heal properly, even after an additional surgery and attempted comeback with the Blue Jays following his disastrous 6 years with the Mets. Viola’s career was also ended by injury. In mid-September of 1993 while just 33 years old and sporting a sparkly 3.14 ERA, Viola was shut down with elbow issues leading to Tommy John surgery in an era where the surgery was much less successful. Perhaps some of the high failure rates were from what would be considered utter medical malpractice today. Viola was back on the mound to open 1994. Yes. You read that right. 6 months after TJ, Viola was starting games in MLB. I can only imagine the rehab process involved rubbing dirt on the elbow and ignoring the pain. Astonishingly, Viola’s body was unable to heal in 6 months what needs 18 months on average these days with far more advanced practices. The ligament replacement obviously failed, and on top of that, muscles had been torn as well. Viola never returned to form though he continued to attempt comebacks with an arm that had been MacGyver’d back together a couple times.

Parting Ways
Again, both players are extremely similar being ace pitchers traded from the Twins to the Mets. Viola was traded mid-season after contract negotiations broke down thanks in no part to the front office rescinding the offer they agreed to, but unlike Santana who was beloved and supported by fans railing against the “cheap Pohlads” most fans took the side of the owners in Viola’s case. Twins fans were furious Viola would push for top dollar or test free agency after coming off a WS MVP and Cy Young in back to back years. The difference in fan support is possibly a major factor in how well Viola is remembered as Viola was essentially given the “don’t let the door hit you on the way out” treatment. Undoubtedly the pain of the loss of Viola was buffered by the acquisition of core players for the 1991 Twins World Series Championship team. As part of the Viola trade, the Twins got back 1991 ace Kevin Tapani and elite closer Rick Aguilera. Conversely, Santana brought back Carlos Gomez, who was flipped for JJ Hardy who was flipped for what was AAAA relief pitching.

Summary
Viola and Santana are highly similar in many ways. Having similar slow starts to their careers, both being acquired from other teams, both turning into elite Cy Young winners for the Twins, both leaving the Twins for the Mets, and both having their careers ended many years early by injury. Johan Santana was better, but not nearly as much as many people seem to think, and Viola brought the Twins the 1987 World Series Championship where Santana often brought playoff hand wringing. Santana is especially appreciated by fans here possibly because of his Twins-heavy career with nearly 80% of his career WAR coming while in a Twins uniform, and Santana had the advantage of playing with the Twins during a period where they were consistently making the playoffs. Frank Viola was truly dominant on the mound for many years putting together Cy Young caliber 6+ WAR campaigns for the Twins, Mets and the Red Sox, but unlike Santana, Viola stacked just over 50% of his career WAR together in a Twins uniform while surprisingly appearing in more All Star games in a Mets uniform than with Minnesota. Both pitchers were true, legitimate aces who gave Twins fans the expectation a game would be won versus the hope a game would be won, and it's quite possible both could be in the Hall of Fame today if it weren't for the career ending injury bug.

This is a comparison I’ve been wanting to tackle for a long time. In part due to the legendary status of Johan Santana amongst Twins fans. Santana was the greatest pitcher in MLB for a very short time, and a lot of Twins fans look back with a fascination focused on a Twins starter who was a legitimate ace posting up historically impressive ERAs for years in a row. A pitcher who was nationally recognized as peerless. What about Frank Viola, though? While fans recognize the name and revere the World Series Championship Viola brought the team in 1987, often Viola is considered a far cry from the dominant rotation arm Santana was. How does Viola really stack up vs. the legend of Johan?

Peaks
It's not open for legitimate debate. Johan Santana was the greatest pitcher in baseball for the years 2004-2006. Santana led the AL all three years in WAR, ERA+, Strikeouts and WHIP. His dominance on the mound was rewarded with a 55-19 record over the span, never winning fewer than 16 games. In Santana’s most dominant season of 2004, Santana put up a colossal 8.7 bWAR across 228 innings with a record of 20-6 with a 2.61 ERA and an ERA+ 182. Surely Viola can’t compare, right? Probably a lot closer than you think. Viola’s 1987 and 1998 were also insane. 8.1 bWAR in 251 innings followed by 7.7 bWAR in 255 innings, a record of 17-10 followed by 24-7 with ERA’s of 2.90 and 2.64 adjusting to still gaudy ERA+ number of 159 and 154, respectively. Viola took home the 1988 Cy Young Award for his efforts, and though he was not the triple crown winner like Santana, Viola’s results were comparable to the best using today’s metrics.

Ultimately, Santana and Viola were comparable in terms of value during their peaks. Santana’s peak was higher and more obvious, but the two pitchers mirror each other pretty closely in terms of value as you stretch that peak out. Viola’s best years stretched 10 years starting with 1984’s 4.5 bWAR 3.21 ERA (ERA+ 131) season through his final great season at age 33 with the Red Sox where he pitched to a 3.14 ERA (ERA+ 148) and another 4.3 bWAR. Santana’s stretch into his transition years from 2003’s 4.1 bWAR, 3.07 ERA (ERA+ 148) start until his age 31 season where he put up 4.7 bWAR effort during the 2.98 ERA (ERA+ 131) with the Mets. In terms of value: Best single year? Santana. Best 2 years? Viola. Best 3 years? Santana. You get the picture. Isolating Santana’s 8yr peak gets you to 6.0 annual bWAR and an astonishing ERA+ 150. Isolating Viola’s 7yr that way gets him to 5.6 annual bWAR an ERA of 3.19 and an impressive ERA+ 128 dragged down by 2 mediocre seasons being clumped in there.


Career Performance
Johan Santana finished his career as a 2x Cy Young, and 4x All Star. He accumulated 51.1 bWAR and 2,025 innings pitched across 12 seasons with a stellar 3.20 ERA and a truly epic ERA+ 136. In fact, Santana’s career ERA+ 136 ties him for 26th in MLB history. The only mark against Santana is how short his career really was. That said, Santana benefitted greatly from starting off as a reliever while learning how to throw his signature changeup protecting him from pre-peak innings dragging his career results down while his shoulder injury put the kibosh on his career after his age 31 season. The truncation protected his career stats from imminent decline which was already being foreshadowed by the beginnings of up and down results and a declining K rate. Still, it’s undeniable that Santana was a rock never having a hiccup year from 2002-2010. Frank Viola’s career ended as a 1x Cy Young, 3x All Star, 1x World Series Championship, 1x World Series MVP. Viola’s 47.1 career bWAR across 2,836 innings and 15 years only slightly trails Santana. His 3.73 ERA and career ERA+ of 112 reflected his rough start, the futile attempted comebacks through age 36 totaling 4 years of negative WAR. Unlike Santana who was shielded and carefully developed, an immature Frank Viola was thrown into the fire by a desperate Twins organization in 1982, and the results reflected Viola’s fiery emotional immaturity and lack of polish. The career WAR makes it clear Viola was a true ace over a long span of years in his own right.

Post season performances
This one is all Viola. Viola pitched the Twins into the World Series and then took home the World Series MVP as the Twins won it all in 1987. Viola was 3-1 used only as a starter in the only year he saw postseason action. The Twins were 4-1 in games Viola pitched. Viola’s Game 1 vs. the Tigers was good with 7 innings and 3 ER before putting runners on in the 8th and being lifted for Reardon who made a mess. The Twins won anyway thanks to the hitters. Game 2 was a 5 inning 2 ER performance where one ER was once again the gift of the Twins’ bullpen. Viola earned the World Series MVP by pitching 3 of the 7 games, taking the mound for games 1 and game 7 allowing 1 run in 8.0 innings of work in both instances. Johan Santana got 4 separate years of chances to pitch in the post season with a consistently great Twins team and more teams making the playoffs. His record was 1-3, with the Twins often paying the price when Santana stepped onto the mound; directly being credited with losses from bullpen meltdowns. Santana’s lone win came out of the bullpen where he nearly gave up the only 2 runs the A’s scored before the Twins hitters saved the day to reverse fate. Later, in 2004 and again in 2006 as a starter, Santana pitched excellently. Unfortunately, he was out-dueled in 2 of 3 starts, and Santana was lifted from games earlier than Viola giving Gardy’s bullpen instincts too many opportunities.

Career Ends
When it comes to the end of their careers, the two pitchers are again, similar. Santana’s well documented career ending shoulder capsule tear at age 31 failed to heal properly, even after an additional surgery and attempted comeback with the Blue Jays following his disastrous 6 years with the Mets. Viola’s career was also ended by injury. In mid-September of 1993 while just 33 years old and sporting a sparkly 3.14 ERA, Viola was shut down with elbow issues leading to Tommy John surgery in an era where the surgery was much less successful. Perhaps some of the high failure rates were from what would be considered utter medical malpractice today. Viola was back on the mound to open 1994. Yes. You read that right. 6 months after TJ, Viola was starting games in MLB. I can only imagine the rehab process involved rubbing dirt on the elbow and ignoring the pain. Astonishingly, Viola’s body was unable to heal in 6 months what needs 18 months on average these days with far more advanced practices. The ligament replacement obviously failed, and on top of that, muscles had been torn as well. Viola never returned to form though he continued to attempt comebacks with an arm that had been MacGyver’d back together a couple times.

Parting Ways
Again, both players are extremely similar being ace pitchers traded from the Twins to the Mets. Viola was traded mid-season after contract negotiations broke down thanks in no part to the front office rescinding the offer they agreed to, but unlike Santana who was beloved and supported by fans railing against the “cheap Pohlads” most fans took the side of the owners in Viola’s case. Twins fans were furious Viola would push for top dollar or test free agency after coming off a WS MVP and Cy Young in back to back years. The difference in fan support is possibly a major factor in how well Viola is remembered as Viola was essentially given the “don’t let the door hit you on the way out” treatment. Undoubtedly the pain of the loss of Viola was buffered by the acquisition of core players for the 1991 Twins World Series Championship team. As part of the Viola trade, the Twins got back 1991 ace Kevin Tapani and elite closer Rick Aguilera. Conversely, Santana brought back Carlos Gomez, who was flipped for JJ Hardy who was flipped for what was AAAA relief pitching.

Summary
Viola and Santana are highly similar in many ways. Having similar slow starts to their careers, both being acquired from other teams, both turning into elite Cy Young winners for the Twins, both leaving the Twins for the Mets, and both having their careers ended many years early by injury. Johan Santana was better, but not nearly as much as many people seem to think, and Viola brought the Twins the 1987 World Series Championship where Santana often brought playoff hand wringing. Santana is especially appreciated by fans here possibly because of his Twins-heavy career with nearly 80% of his career WAR coming while in a Twins uniform, and Santana had the advantage of playing with the Twins during a period where they were consistently making the playoffs. Frank Viola was truly dominant on the mound for many years putting together Cy Young caliber 6+ WAR campaigns for the Twins, Mets and the Red Sox, but unlike Santana, Viola stacked just over 50% of his career WAR together in a Twins uniform while surprisingly appearing in more All Star games in a Mets uniform than with Minnesota. Both pitchers were true, legitimate aces who gave Twins fans the expectation a game would be won versus the hope a game would be won, and it's quite possible both could be in the Hall of Fame today if it weren't for the career ending injury bug.

This is a comparison I’ve been wanting to tackle for a long time. In part due to the legendary status of Johan Santana amongst Twins fans. Santana was the greatest pitcher in MLB for a very short time, and a lot of Twins fans look back with a fascination focused on a Twins starter who was a legitimate ace posting up historically impressive ERAs for years in a row. A pitcher who was nationally recognized as peerless. What about Frank Viola, though? While fans recognize the name and revere the World Series Championship Viola brought the team in 1987, often Viola is considered a far cry from the dominant rotation arm Santana was. How does Viola really stack up vs. the legend of Johan?

Peaks
It's not open for legitimate debate. Johan Santana was the greatest pitcher in baseball for the years 2004-2006. Santana led the AL all three years in WAR, ERA+, Strikeouts and WHIP. His dominance on the mound was rewarded with a 55-19 record over the span, never winning fewer than 16 games. In Santana’s most dominant season of 2004, Santana put up a colossal 8.7 bWAR across 228 innings with a record of 20-6 with a 2.61 ERA and an ERA+ 182. Surely Viola can’t compare, right? Probably a lot closer than you think. Viola’s 1987 and 1998 were also insane. 8.1 bWAR in 251 innings followed by 7.7 bWAR in 255 innings, a record of 17-10 followed by 24-7 with ERA’s of 2.90 and 2.64 adjusting to still gaudy ERA+ number of 159 and 154, respectively. Viola took home the 1988 Cy Young Award for his efforts, and though he was not the triple crown winner like Santana, Viola’s results were comparable to the best using today’s metrics.

Ultimately, Santana and Viola were comparable in terms of value during their peaks. Santana’s peak was higher and more obvious, but the two pitchers mirror each other pretty closely in terms of value as you stretch that peak out. Viola’s best years stretched 10 years starting with 1984’s 4.5 bWAR 3.21 ERA (ERA+ 131) season through his final great season at age 33 with the Red Sox where he pitched to a 3.14 ERA (ERA+ 148) and another 4.3 bWAR. Santana’s stretch into his transition years from 2003’s 4.1 bWAR, 3.07 ERA (ERA+ 148) start until his age 31 season where he put up 4.7 bWAR effort during the 2.98 ERA (ERA+ 131) with the Mets. In terms of value: Best single year? Santana. Best 2 years? Viola. Best 3 years? Santana. You get the picture. Isolating Santana’s 8yr peak gets you to 6.0 annual bWAR and an astonishing ERA+ 150. Isolating Viola’s 7yr that way gets him to 5.6 annual bWAR an ERA of 3.19 and an impressive ERA+ 128 dragged down by 2 mediocre seasons being clumped in there.


Career Performance
Johan Santana finished his career as a 2x Cy Young, and 4x All Star. He accumulated 51.1 bWAR and 2,025 innings pitched across 12 seasons with a stellar 3.20 ERA and a truly epic ERA+ 136. In fact, Santana’s career ERA+ 136 ties him for 26th in MLB history. The only mark against Santana is how short his career really was. That said, Santana benefitted greatly from starting off as a reliever while learning how to throw his signature changeup protecting him from pre-peak innings dragging his career results down while his shoulder injury put the kibosh on his career after his age 31 season. The truncation protected his career stats from imminent decline which was already being foreshadowed by the beginnings of up and down results and a declining K rate. Still, it’s undeniable that Santana was a rock never having a hiccup year from 2002-2010. Frank Viola’s career ended as a 1x Cy Young, 3x All Star, 1x World Series Championship, 1x World Series MVP. Viola’s 47.1 career bWAR across 2,836 innings and 15 years only slightly trails Santana. His 3.73 ERA and career ERA+ of 112 reflected his rough start, the futile attempted comebacks through age 36 totaling 4 years of negative WAR. Unlike Santana who was shielded and carefully developed, an immature Frank Viola was thrown into the fire by a desperate Twins organization in 1982, and the results reflected Viola’s fiery emotional immaturity and lack of polish. The career WAR makes it clear Viola was a true ace over a long span of years in his own right.

Post season performances
This one is all Viola. Viola pitched the Twins into the World Series and then took home the World Series MVP as the Twins won it all in 1987. Viola was 3-1 used only as a starter in the only year he saw postseason action. The Twins were 4-1 in games Viola pitched. Viola’s Game 1 vs. the Tigers was good with 7 innings and 3 ER before putting runners on in the 8th and being lifted for Reardon who made a mess. The Twins won anyway thanks to the hitters. Game 2 was a 5 inning 2 ER performance where one ER was once again the gift of the Twins’ bullpen. Viola earned the World Series MVP by pitching 3 of the 7 games, taking the mound for games 1 and game 7 allowing 1 run in 8.0 innings of work in both instances. Johan Santana got 4 separate years of chances to pitch in the post season with a consistently great Twins team and more teams making the playoffs. His record was 1-3, with the Twins often paying the price when Santana stepped onto the mound; directly being credited with losses from bullpen meltdowns. Santana’s lone win came out of the bullpen where he nearly gave up the only 2 runs the A’s scored before the Twins hitters saved the day to reverse fate. Later, in 2004 and again in 2006 as a starter, Santana pitched excellently. Unfortunately, he was out-dueled in 2 of 3 starts, and Santana was lifted from games earlier than Viola giving Gardy’s bullpen instincts too many opportunities.

Career Ends
When it comes to the end of their careers, the two pitchers are again, similar. Santana’s well documented career ending shoulder capsule tear at age 31 failed to heal properly, even after an additional surgery and attempted comeback with the Blue Jays following his disastrous 6 years with the Mets. Viola’s career was also ended by injury. In mid-September of 1993 while just 33 years old and sporting a sparkly 3.14 ERA, Viola was shut down with elbow issues leading to Tommy John surgery in an era where the surgery was much less successful. Perhaps some of the high failure rates were from what would be considered utter medical malpractice today. Viola was back on the mound to open 1994. Yes. You read that right. 6 months after TJ, Viola was starting games in MLB. I can only imagine the rehab process involved rubbing dirt on the elbow and ignoring the pain. Astonishingly, Viola’s body was unable to heal in 6 months what needs 18 months on average these days with far more advanced practices. The ligament replacement obviously failed, and on top of that, muscles had been torn as well. Viola never returned to form though he continued to attempt comebacks with an arm that had been MacGyver’d back together a couple times.

Parting Ways
Again, both players are extremely similar being ace pitchers traded from the Twins to the Mets. Viola was traded mid-season after contract negotiations broke down thanks in no part to the front office rescinding the offer they agreed to, but unlike Santana who was beloved and supported by fans railing against the “cheap Pohlads” most fans took the side of the owners in Viola’s case. Twins fans were furious Viola would push for top dollar or test free agency after coming off a WS MVP and Cy Young in back to back years. The difference in fan support is possibly a major factor in how well Viola is remembered as Viola was essentially given the “don’t let the door hit you on the way out” treatment. Undoubtedly the pain of the loss of Viola was buffered by the acquisition of core players for the 1991 Twins World Series Championship team. As part of the Viola trade, the Twins got back 1991 ace Kevin Tapani and elite closer Rick Aguilera. Conversely, Santana brought back Carlos Gomez, who was flipped for JJ Hardy who was flipped for what was AAAA relief pitching.

Summary
Viola and Santana are highly similar in many ways. Having similar slow starts to their careers, both being acquired from other teams, both turning into elite Cy Young winners for the Twins, both leaving the Twins for the Mets, and both having their careers ended many years early by injury. Johan Santana was better, but not nearly as much as many people seem to think, and Viola brought the Twins the 1987 World Series Championship where Santana often brought playoff hand wringing. Santana is especially appreciated by fans here possibly because of his Twins-heavy career with nearly 80% of his career WAR coming while in a Twins uniform, and Santana had the advantage of playing with the Twins during a period where they were consistently making the playoffs. Frank Viola was truly dominant on the mound for many years putting together Cy Young caliber 6+ WAR campaigns for the Twins, Mets and the Red Sox, but unlike Santana, Viola stacked just over 50% of his career WAR together in a Twins uniform while surprisingly appearing in more All Star games in a Mets uniform than with Minnesota. Both pitchers were true, legitimate aces who gave Twins fans the expectation a game would be won versus the hope a game would be won, and it's quite possible both could be in the Hall of Fame today if it weren't for the career ending injury bug.

Among Twins fans, few players have been given a shorter leash despite showing flashes of solid play than Brent Rooker. While Rooker’s results in 2021 have hardly been inspiring, the underlying data says Rooker may be much better than his weak triple slash has shown so far. 
So what are his “results” so far? Regardless of the metrics you want to use, be it the traditional triple slash or others: .201/.294/.397, OPS .691, wRC+ 91, wOBA .302 or OPS+ 90, Rooker’s offensive production has been below par. In fact, for somebody who is touted as a glorified DH, way below par. Rooker would really be expected to produce an OPS above .750 to remain viable and over .800 to produce good value. Of the 15 players who qualify as “DH” with more than 300 plate appearances in MLB this year on Fangraphs, the median OPS is Josh Donaldson’s .816.
On his way to the triple slash he’s produced, Rooker has struck out 32.5% of the time while walking in just 7.6% of his plate appearances. That’s not a great ratio, but for a power hitter, 32.5% K rate isn’t unusual and it’s also in only 197 plate appearances so far this year. This is, for all intents and purposes, Rooker’s rookie season and his first taste of MLB action after showing far above average production in the high minors for years now. The question at this point is not whether Brent Rooker is too good for AAA, it’s whether or not he’s destined to be labeled a AAAA player.
I’ve seen some other posts suggesting Brent Rooker may be cooked already, but a dive into some of the advanced metrics show a very different set of numbers.
  AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA Actual .201 .294 .397 .691 .312 Expected* .236 .325 .448 .773 .345 *BaseballSavant has xBA at .237 and xSLG at .449 which result in 41.24 hits and 78.13 total bases. Those aren’t real numbers so I rounded them down to 41 hits and 78 total bases. I used Rookers actual walks and hit by pitch numbers to calculate his new xOBP so I could calculate his xOPS.

So Rooker’s expected batting line numbers are far better than his actual results, but that can be true for a lot of hitters who don’t use the whole field because of the shift; however, Rooker is not the typical dead pull hitter who is helpless against the shift. Of course, Rooker does pull the ball a lot, 44% of the time in fact, but he also goes to the opposite field 26% of the time. Among qualified hitters, Rooker is actually in the top half of hitters going to the opposite field and he’s not in the top 25% in pull hitting. Fangraphs has limited data on Rooker’s plate appearances, but he gets shifted against about 59% of the time vs. say Max Kepler who gets shifted against 97% of the time (yes, 97% is the real number). Another consideration is whether or not the shift should even actually hurt a hitter. Ground ball hitters are hurt the most, then fly ball hitters, then line drive hitters. The shift is less effective against line drive hitters because the balls generally have high exit velocities and hit the ground quickly so even if defenders are “shifted,” the ball really has to be hit directly at the defender in order to have a play. Despite his excellent power, Rooker is more a line drive hitter than a pure fly ball hitter. He very rarely pops the ball up, and Fangraphs has him at 26% line drive and 38% fly ball with Baseball Savant having him at 31% line drive and 31% fly ball. With Rooker’s batted ball profile, the shift should not be highly effective against him.

Beyond Rooker being somewhat shielded from the shift, there are other things to consider when it comes to hitting. Exit velocity, launch angle, hard hit and barrel rates are extremely important when trying to figure out whether or not a hitters bad luck is actually bad luck and not a function of just a lot of weak contact. Rooker’s average exit velocity is very good at 90.9mph (top 82% in baseball). His launch angle is 12.8% this year which reflects the high line drive rate, but it’s not quite high enough to be “optimal” for a hitter with Rooker’s power. There’s a hard core, in depth article on Fangraphs if you’re interested in getting into the deep end of the pool (I’m not, haha). https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/lets-talk-about-launch-angle-generally/ Rooker would probably experience better slash lines and an increase in home runs with a launch angle closer to 20* because of his power, but he should be very close to having his optimal batting average where he is. What about hard hit rate? Fangraphs says Rooker is 35.5% hard hit rate based on Baseball Info Solutions algorithms, which is good for the top 37% of hitters with 300 plate appearances, but BaseballSavant has Rooker with a higher 47.6% hard hit rate (different definition at 95mph+) and puts him in the top 15% of hitters with 100+ batted ball events. When it comes to barrel rate, Rooker is showing up as 11.8% putting him in the top 16% of hitters for Fangraphs and BaseballSavant. Btw, think of barrel rate as absolutely crushing a ball. The baseline is a launch angle of 25-31* and an exit velocity of at least 98mph. For every 1mph of exit velocity you add, you get about 2 degrees more leniency in the launch angle. Like 100mph gets you to 24-33*. It’s that no doubter home run or absolute rocket off the bat where no amount of shift makes any difference because the ball is in the outfield before the infielders even know what happened.
Some charts to help folks who don’t follow metrics closely. This data was pulled from Fangraphs using Statcast numbers for the 252 players with at least 300 plate appearances this year prior to today. Rooker himself was not included as he only has 197.
 


Now we can discuss his plate discipline. Does Rooker have the hit tool to play at the MLB level? How do opposing pitchers view him? BaseballSavant shows pitchers have become wary of testing Rooker, throwing him fewer fastballs and more breaking balls while avoiding the strike zone as much as possible. Interestingly enough, Rooker has better results against the breaking balls than fastballs, but according to the expected data, it should be the exact opposite. Rooker against the fastball is batting just .177 with a SLG of .375, but his xBA is 80 points higher at .256 and his xSLG is .487.  Rooker’s performance against breaking balls is closer to where it should be with a .245 AVG vs. xBA of .225 and a SLG of .434 vs. an xSLG of .418. His bat is not a black hole against breaking pitches in practice or theory and his bat looks like it should be downright dangerous against fastballs and changeups. In regard to plate discipline, Fangraphs shows his O-swing% (swing percentage of pitches outside the zone) at 30.6-32.3% depending on the source, but that’s not bad at all. His PitchFX data shows Rooker swinging outside the zone at 32.3%, which would rank as better than 43.5% of MLB hitters with more than 300 plate appearances so far this year. A tick below average. His contact rate on balls outside the zone does need some work suggesting he can be completely fooled a bit too easily. His Z-swing% (swing percentage of pitches inside the zone) rates are a little lower than they should be and Rooker takes too many called strikes because he’s not aggressive enough when he gets a pitch in the zone. Again, based on players with 300+ plate appearances from PitchFX data on Fangraphs.

Lastly, something pretty interesting to me. Defense. While Rooker carries with him the expectation he’s a lost cause at the corners, BaseballSavant hints at Rooker not being a guaranteed waste in the outfield. Rooker’s sprint speed is above average. Yes. You read that right. His sprint speed on BaseballSavant shows 27.3 ft/sec, above average for an MLB player or left fielder for that matter. His defensive metrics show Rooker is above average when it comes to route running, but his reaction is terrible (feet in 0 to 1.5 seconds) with Rooker’s acceleration in sprint speed being iffy. The combination of Rooker not recognizing the ball off the bat quickly enough and his mediocre acceleration is what is hurting Rooker defensively. Some of that can be improved with work and experience, though it’s a little bit late for Rooker to take an active role in becoming a better fielder.
In summary, What does all of this mean? Well, for starters, we don’t have a ton of data on Brent Rooker. He’s only at 197 plate appearances this season and a paltry 21 from 2020. At about 200 plate appearances in a season is where the first set of luck metrics just start stabilizing and they move quite a bit to 300 plate appearances where things start to get pretty stable. Rooker shows adequate plate discipline, his batted ball profile suggests he’s having terrible luck, but he’s frequently shown off his power. Opposing pitchers have formed enough respect for Rooker that they’ve made the adjustment to try to avoid throwing him anything decent to hit and Rooker hasn’t turned into a strikeout machine in the process. Rooker is primarily a pull hitter, but he’s gone to the opposite field enough to keep defenses semi-honest on the shift. Rooker also hits the ball much harder than the average major leaguer, he barrels up the ball well enough and doesn’t make a lot of weak contact. It seems like Rooker needs to be more aggressive when he gets a strike rather than waiting for a meatball because MLB pitchers are definitely being extra careful not to give him something easy to hit and MLB pitchers do not make mistakes like MiLB pitchers do. An MLB hitter might see 1 mistake pitch per game vs seeing several in the minors. Defensively, he waits a little too long to make a jump on the ball and he could work on improving his running technique to get better off the line acceleration, but he has the speed to cover a corner outfield position. With a little opportunity for his luck to even out and some minor adjustments, Rooker may turn into a real force at the plate with adequate corner outfield defense. Despite his limitations, it’s too soon to pull the plug on Rooker as he’s definitely got the potential to be a legitimate every day starting MLB player.
 

The first step in any offseason plan is identifying the needs and the wants for the organization. The only real needs are a payroll of $130MM or less, and a full 26 man roster with 13 or more position players to meet MLB rules. While ownership is on record saying they don’t expect to cut payroll further or that they expect payroll to remain similar, Falvey is also on more recent record making it about as clear as he possibly could last year’s $130MM mark the Twins opened with is the ceiling. “Similar” means close to, but definitely not over. Say $125-130MM? This means salary relief is an absolute need since the Twins are already about $140MM with the guys they control.

Onto the critical “wants” which somebody might expect to have a major impact on team performance. It’s similar to last year, but unlike 2023-2024’s offseason, that 2nd top of the rotation pitcher isn’t even worth talking about.
1. Center Fielder – Buxton cannot be the only potential everyday center fielder on the roster.
2. Infielder(s) – Carlos Santana’s a free agent, and the Twins got nothing from 2B last year.

On to the major holes the Twins would be wise to address.
3. Designated Hitter – The Twins have precious few options to fill in a DH role.
4. Lefty Reliever – Thielbar’s on the way out and Funderburk looked rough.
5. Catcher – It’d be nice if the Twins had a catcher who could both hit the ball and field.

Anything else feels like it’d be a pipe dream to hope for as the Twins are going to be limited in free agency, and I feel the Pohlads must have locked the prospect pipeline down based on recent season moves/non-moves by the front office. The only way the Twins open things up in free agency is if they move Correa, and I don’t see that as a likely scenario at all. It’s time to get real “creative” as Falvey will need to do.

Non-tender Kyle Farmer and Manuel Margot. Those already happened, and they were no doubters anyway. Kepler and Santana are free agents and off the books. Even so, we’re still starting over the payroll limit with team controlled players by about $10MM at $140MMish.

Step 1) The Twins agree with the Mariners to trade Trevor Larnach and sign/trade Justin Topa back to Seattle for Victor Robles. Robles signed a team friendly 2 year contract with a club option with the Mariners, and Robles has made it look like a great move. Robles had a great season with Seattle to build on his 2023 in Washington, which is pretty unexpected given Robles’ rough track record. The expected values at the plate throw a healthy dose of water onto the real .307/.381/.433 OPS .814 wRC+ 141 results from the 27 year old, but by expected metrics, he was still an above average hitter. Think .260/.340/.400 OPS .740 wRC+ 120ish. Not too far above Larnach’s numbers, but Robles is a righty who can cover center field, though he's a bit stretched there. Btw, just you try to find a right handed outfielder who isn’t a black hole at the plate or in the field in MLB these days. So why would the Mariners make this move? Unlike the Twins, the Mariners could really benefit from an extra lefty bat without sacrificing years of control. Also, it’s bad news for them to rely upon players who hit all home runs in Seattle’s cavernous stadium (see Garver, Mitch).  Larnach’s a lefty bat who has a nice line drive output swing the Mariners could really use, Larnach is a bit cheaper. On the Topa side, Seattle’s bullpen is in disarray this offseason. The inclusion of Topa balances out Robles’ value, and Seattle is obviously comfortable with the pitcher as Topa has history there including a really solid 2023. Viewing this transaction from BaseballTradeValues perspective Larnach +14.5 & Topa +9.8 (don’t ask me, man) 24.3 total offset Robles’ 22.2 nicely. Topa’s easily exchangeable with other middle value bullpen options so he’s just a name/value to make sense.

Step 2) The Twins re-sign Willi Castro. You can debate what position you want Castro to play, but with a legitimate potential CF on the roster, Castro can hopefully focus on the infield slots. Lee was worse than rough at the plate. The .221/.265/.320 OPS .585 wRC+ 62 performance made Christian Vazquez look solid, and with all the flak he took, Julien’s .199/.292/.323 OPS .616 wRC+ 80 performance enjoyed advantages in both a substantial advantage in OBP and even a little SLG over Lee. Neither Lee nor Julien can be relied upon as an everyday infielder in 2025 based on how they played. Willi Castro’s presence makes a massive change to the injury protection depth, and the baseline of the infield’s expected performance.

Step 3) So we’ve added about $7MM to the salary so far. Seems fine… and here’s where the Twins double that! The Twins really could use a legitimate DH, and J.D. Martinez is aging, but he still ripped off a lot of high exit velocities last year. His .235/.320/.406 OPS .725 wRC+ 108 season belied his luck, and that gets the 37 year old slugger down into the $7MM one year contract range which some creative rostering can handle. His xwOBA was nearly 40pts above his actual performance which says he should have hit .260/.355/.485 OPS .840ish wRC+ 130 or so, and traditionally, Martinez has been pretty close in expected/actual numbers. Not quite the elite prime bat he was, but still highly valuable. Martinez would add that right-handed power bat the Twins have really been missing since Cruz’s departure.

Step 4) Okay, so we’re wayyyyyy over budget now. Great! Time to clear some space and take care of the catcher position where the Twins desperately need a long term solution, not just a band-aid. How will the Twins afford this one? Pablo Lopez. We can’t give up a top end starter though! The much loved starter and ace of the team’s $22MM contract isn’t as crippling as Correa’s, but it’s exceptionally easy to move. Lopez is viewed as a front-end starter by many teams and analysts across the sport, and he comes with 3 years of team friendly team control. Baseballtradevalues says +37.4, and that’s big-time value which can move some scales. But it’s not like the Twins can cast off their best pitcher and expect to be competitive. Enter the Diamondbacks. I talked about this trade already. Zac Gallen is their franchise pitcher just like Lopez is for the Twins, but Gallen is on borrowed time. He’s gone at the end of the year, and this close to free agency with the RSN issue in full force for the Diamondbacks, they just aren’t going to be able to get to that 7yrs+ $200MM+ contract extension to keep Gallen from free agency. Arizona is in the middle of their competitive window, and they can’t afford to have it wiped out so soon. In case you're not familiar with Gallen, he'll be in his age 29 season next year and has a career 3.24 ERA, 3.45 FIP. He's a consistent 4-5 WAR legitimate universally accepted ace. He lost a bunch of time with a strained hammy last year, but has been otherwise very durable. Lopez keeps their window open for 2 more years than Gallen would, and at a price point where AZ can still put food on the table. The Twins have starter prospects, and maybe some more money soon with an owner change. The Diamondbacks have neither so they’re really in a tough spot for future rotation options. Those extra 2 years of team control for Lopez make all the difference and get the Twins a solid, young, cost-controlled catcher named Gabriel Moreno. Moreno is a high on base, high contact rate hitter with a little pop who will only be 25 next year. A career .280/.347/.393 OPS .740 wRC+ 105 hitter, Moreno put together a solid .266/.353/.380 OPS .734 wRC+ 107 line again last year. On top of that, Moreno provides solid defense catching about 30% of base runners, and posting neutral framing numbers (if you believe in that stat). DRS has Morneo at +32, and FRV at +13. BaseballSavant had Moreno at or above average across the board defensively last year with 51 block, stealing 79, framing 74, and a fast pop time. The pre-arb catcher will be entering his prime as a shield against potential decline as well. The Diamondbacks already have catching depth with legit potential plus catching prospect Adrian Del Castillo split between MLB/AAA last year. The Twins save $7MM in this transaction. As far as BaseballTradeValues views it? Lopez +37.4 offsets Gallen +19.5 & Moreno 16.6 (total 36.1).

Step 5) Now that we have a solid 1-2 punch at catcher, Vazquez becomes a piece the Twins can legitimately look at trading, but they’re not going to be able to offload his entire $10MM contract. The Tampa Bay Rays need a catcher, and they’re going to be looking for a defensively minded, right-handed option to pair with Ben Rortvedt, but on the cheap. The Twins need a lefty bullpen arm with some potential. Let’s make a deal. The Twins send Vazquez and $5MM to the always frugal Tampa Bay Rays who return lefty relief fireballer Mason Montgomery. Montgomery struggled with walks in AAA, but the reliever prospect earned a call up in September at age 24. Montgomery can touch triple digits, but he sits at 97-98mph with his fastball and 88-89mph with the potential wipeout slider. Montgomery is just a 2 pitch guy who gives up a lot of fly balls, and movement isn’t special on either, but the velo makes his stuff dangerous and Stuff+ grades the FB at 150 (75ish grade) and the slider at 110 (55ish grade) in limited sample data. His velo is offset by the limited pitch options and control issues. Still, he’s got potential, and he’s left-handed so that’s why the Twins eat the $5MM. BaseballTradeValues isn’t seemingly great with unknown/mid/low level prospects or catchers. I think Vazquez is worth a little more than BTV does at Vazquez -7.8 + 5.0, and I’d think Montgomery is worth a bit more than his 2.4. I think it’s fair.

Step 6) Remember that payroll “need” thing? We’re still not there yet. Chris Paddack isn’t going to be moved anywhere at full price, but for a good deal, Paddack would be valuable to a team needing rotation depth, especially early in the season. The Twins eat $3MM of Paddack’s salary getting him down to $4.5MM to box him up for shipment. With the Baltimore Orioles hoping to get a couple starters back during the year, Paddack is great early year insurance at a price that doesn’t hurt their other pursuits. In return, the Twins beg for scraps and get righty reliever Colin Selby. Colin Selby will be 27 next year so he’s not a real “prospect,” but Baltimore did call him up towards the end of the year, including a game against the Twins. He appears to have added a 4 seamer to his sinker/slider/curve options this past year, though the 4 seamer grades out poorly in Stuff+. Fastball 80 (40ish grade), Sinker 120 (60ish grade), Slider 141 (70ish grade), Curve 144 (70ish grade). His velo can touch 97, but it’s inconsistent ranging from 93-97 whereas the breaking stuff is more reliable with the Slider at 87-89 and the curve at 82-84. While the stuff is there, the control is not, and Selby struggles to locate his pitches. Selby’s had some success at AAA, but he also gave up a lot of homers and tons of walks thanks to those control issues. Feels a lot like Sim... Maybe the Twins can address the issues a little? He’s only got 1 option left, but it feels like the righty is solid bullpen depth at least. BaseballTradeValues thinks Paddack is -1.6 + 3.0 vs. the Selby at 1.4 at the beginning of 2024. I don’t have a subscription, and nobody’s proposing trades for him, so I can’t tell you for sure what it is today… except, low.

All said and done, here’s how the roster construction looks now.
Salary $MM Position First Last Control Options Arb Status 0.8 C Gabriel Moreno 4yrs 0 Pre-Arb 0.8 1B Jose Miranda 4yrs 0 Pre-Arb 6.2 2B Willi Castro 1yr 0 Arb 3 37.0 SS Carlos Correa 8yrs 0 N/A 2.3 3B Royce Lewis 4yrs 2 Arb 1 4.8 LF Victor Robles 2yrs 0 N/A 15.0 CF Byron Buxton 4yrs 0 N/A 0.8 RF Matt Wallner 5yrs 1 Pre-Arb 7.0 DH J.D. Martinez 1yr 0 N/A 4.7 BC Ryan Jeffers 2yrs 1 Arb 2 0.8 Util Eddie Julien 5yrs 1 Pre-Arb 0.8 UO Austin Martin 6yrs 2 Pre-Arb 0.8 UI Brooks Lee 6yrs 3 Pre-Arb               14.0 SP1 Zac Gallen 1yr 0 N/A 3.8 SP2 Joe Ryan 3yrs 3 Arb 1 4.3 SP3 Bailey Ober 3yrs 1 Arb 1 0.8 SP4 David Festa 6yrs 3 Pre-Arb 0.8 SP5 Simeon WR 6yrs 1 Pre-Arb               3.7 RP1 Jhoan Duran 3yrs 1 Arb 1 2.6 RP2 Griffin Jax 3yrs 2 Arb 1 1.5 RP3 Jorge Alcala 1yr 2 Arb 2 0.8 RP4 Cole Sands 4yrs 1 Pre-Arb 1.0 RP5 Brock Stewart 3yrs 0 Arb 1 0.8 RP6 Mason Montgomery 6yrs 3 Pre-Arb 1.5 RP7 Michael Tonkin 2yrs 0 Arb 2 0.8 RP8 Ronny Henriquez 6yrs 0 Pre-Arb 118.2 Subtotal (Active Roster Payroll)               3.0 Dead Money Randy Dobnak 1yr 0 N/A 0.3 Dead Money Kyle Farmer N/A N/A N/A 5.0 Retained Christian  Vazquez N/A N/A N/A 3.0 Retained Chris Paddack N/A N/A N/A 11.3 Subtotal (Non-Roster Payroll) 129.5 Total Payroll Obviously, I like the overall package since I'm the one who dreamed it up. I like the depth in case anything goes sideways with the outfield or infield, and I think we've got plenty of mid/back rotation ready depth at AAA, though grabbing a veteran on a MiLB contract wouldn't be a bad idea. The rotation should be very strong with Gallen at the front, and hopefully Festa can figure out that curveball he's trying to add to his repertoire as it could potentially turn him into an upper rotation threat, and at least avoid a Sophomore Slump. Defense in the outfield will be better than last year with Robles being a significant upgrade vs. Margot, and depending on how Martin performs, there's potential for Keirsey to be called up since Robles isn't a lefty. Since Baldelli prefers to use Castro as a utility guy, there's plenty of opportunity to move him around provided Julien or Lee get on track. The bullpen is a little more difficult. Tonkin I'm keeping since he's been durable, serviceable and cheap, but his improvements last year gave him some new upside. Henriquez is out of options, and he might be more than the sum of his parts so to speak so I have him on the 26 man over Varland. Montgomery gets the nod over Funderburk. We've got solid (theoretical) depth again in the reliever world with Canterino, Selby, Funderburk, and Varland. That said, there are going to be injuries so it's not like the roster won't shift around. I like this team to win over 90 games, and provided there's even a little luck on health, it could be be a real World Series potential threat. The toughest part of this projection is after 2025, the Twins might find themselves in an even tougher position payroll/needs wise.

As for the outgoing guys, if you want to keep track:
Retained Salary Position / Departing Player / Reason 5.0 C Christian Vazquez Trade 0.0 1B Carlos Santana Free Agent 0.0 1B/DH Alex Kirilloff Retired 0.0 LF Trevor  Larnach Trade 0.0 RF Max Kepler Free Agent 0.0 UO Manuel Margot Decline $12MM Opt 0.3 UI Kyle Farmer Decline $6MM Opt 0.0 SP Pablo Lopez Trade 3.0 SP Chris Paddack Trade 0.0 SP Anthony Desclafani Free Agent 0.0 RP Justin Topa Trade 0.0 RP Caleb Thielbar Free Agent
Onto the 40 man plan. Probably less interesting to some folks. The Twins have already outrighted Josh Winder, Yunior Severino, Randy Dobnak, Scott Blewett, and Daniel Duarte. They all cleared waivers, but I believe they’re all technically Rule 5 eligible now.

I’d also outright Brent Headrick to clear 40 man space while keeping all other existing 40 man roster players. Headrick is a lefty, but his track record is awfully weak. Add in the injury history, and I just don’t think he’s necessary to protect. I’d add Richardo Olivar, Kala’i Rosario, Christian MacLeod, Travis Adams, and the acquisition from Baltimore, Colin Selby so that sets the additional 14 members of the 40 man roster as:
40 Man Roster Position First Name Last Name Control Options Level Add C Ricardo Olivar 6yrs 3 AA Keep C Jair Camargo 6yrs 2 AAA Keep OF Emmanuel Rodriguez 6yrs 2 AAA Keep OF DaShawn Keirsey 6yrs 3 AAA Keep OF Michael Helman 6yrs 3 AAA Add OF Kala'i Rosario 6yrs 3 AA Keep SP Zebby Matthews 6yrs 3 AAA Add SP Marco Raya 6yrs 3 AAA Add SP Christian MacLeod 6yrs 3 AAA Add SP Travis Adams 6yrs 3 AAA Keep RP Louie Varland 5yrs 1 AAA Keep RP Matt Canterino 6yrs 1 AAA From Baltimore RP Colin Selby 6yrs 2 AAA Keep RP Kody Funderburk 6yrs 3 AAA As for the outgoing space clearing on the 40 man, here is this group. I do think there' a good chance Winder is going to be grabbed if he's rule 5 eligible (I don't understand any potential intricacy), but I don't think anybody else is at risk.
Outright/Non Position First Name Last Name Status Options Rule 5 Status Done RP Josh Winder Cleared 0 Eligible Done 1B Junior Severino Cleared 0 Eligible Done RP Scott Blewett Cleared 0 Eligible Done RP Daniel Duarte Cleared 1 Eligible Done RP Randy Dobnak Cleared 0 Eligible Yes SP Brent Headrick   1 Eligible  

I don't know how many times I've seen the Twins' ownership all lumped together as a singular, static entity. Similar to the entity known as "Falvine" or that childhood couple who got the blended name like Nateiffer or whatever. The perceived sins of the father infect the rest of the family by association like the way people go after the blood relations of presidents. The arguments surround the Twins being owned by misers who hurt the team's chance of being successful because they won't pay competitive salaries. Inconceivably large numbers get thrown around and ranks are used to provide a convenient reference furthering the commenter's opinion. But, just how does the Twins' historical payroll stack up in a visual way? A way which can better illustrate at a glance how competitive they've been. Is Carl the same as Jim? Are the Twins the franchise today as they were 20 years ago?

What does 16th or 19th rank look like? See for yourself how the Twins stack up historically, all the way back to 1988 based on data from The Baseball Cube. 2024 data comes from Spotrac so the methodology might be a bit different. You can see some major trends and how baseball competition levels were affected by changes to the CBA and television, etc. Up until about 1990, the differences from the haves to the have nots wasn't so huge. The Twins were right in the thick of things as one of the upper payroll teams. A paradigm shift occurred and baseball competition levels would never be the same. Another shift in the late 90s changed the landscape yet again. Suddenly, the gap became massive, and Carl Pohlad opted for the bare minimum cost philosophy as the Twins secured the lowest payrolls in MLB. Contraction didn't happen, and Twins payrolls rose to about the bottom of the 3rd quartile of teams until Target Field. When Target Field opened, Carl Pohlad was dead with his son, Jim, having taken over. Jim pushed payroll up a full bracket and more closely followed the bottom of the 2nd quartile of teams. Right about dead mid market combined from 2010-2022, but it appears there's another shift going on.


 
Payrolls and revenues are trending up, and the Pohlad family appear to be more committed to trend back to the days of their father, and the Metrodome as attendance falters. Carl Pohlad was a miser. While generous from a charitable standpoint, and an honorable man with multiple purple hearts, a bronze star with clusters and a fantastic personal reputation amongst the people who knew him, he did not accept losses from businesses, and the Twins were a business to him. Carl's first love was football, and he actively attempted to purchase a controlling interest in the Minnesota Vikings, but was rebuffed because he owned a controlling interest in the Twins already. I have to wonder if Jim is getting miserly as he ages? Frustration with attendance and an inability to get a new stadium built led Carl to cut the payroll down to the bottom of the barrel and field more than a handful of terrible, non-competitive teams while threatening to sell the team to a party who would move the franchise out of state or even potentially contract the team entirely. This new philosophy for the Twins' ownership on the back of frustration with attendance potentially signals it's time for the Pohlads to sell the team to an owner with better business sense because Twins revenue shouldn't be as low as it is. Poorly negotiated TV deals, poor marketing and a lack of accountability at the head of the organization have allowed ownership to assume revenues are fixed so costs must be cut rather than understanding how to expand revenues to keep the team competitive with mid-market teams.

The Pohlads also appear to lack understanding of how team payrolls work. Joe Pohlad pointed to the Orioles as an example, but Baltimore has fielded a payroll higher than the Twins in 21 of the past 37 seasons (57%) including 3 seasons above the maximum payroll in Twins' history despite a much smaller market than Minneapolis. The Orioles recently employed the tank Astros philosophy of the 2010s initiating a total burn down of their roster with the willingness to field the worst teams in baseball year in and out while undertaking a massive rebuild. Now in a competitive window, Baltimore is once again expanding their payroll rapidly, and I expect they'll surpass the Twins once again next season. Baltimore would never have burned down a team in their prime competitive window.

This new (old) Pohlad philosophy is not only a poor look, it's a disservice to the fans, and the taxpayers who built Target Field with the expectation ownership would keep their end of the bargain and fund the team appropriately. It reeks of panic, frustration, poor business management, and dysfunction. If this is what the Pohlads bring to the table now, it's best to find fresh new ownership with a better philosophy.

I don't know how many times I've seen the Twins' ownership all lumped together as a singular, static entity. Similar to the entity known as "Falvine" or that childhood couple who got the blended name like Nateiffer or whatever. The perceived sins of the father infect the rest of the family by association like the way people go after the blood relations of presidents. The arguments surround the Twins being owned by misers who hurt the team's chance of being successful because they won't pay competitive salaries. Inconceivably large numbers get thrown around and ranks are used to provide a convenient reference furthering the commenter's opinion. But, just how does the Twins' historical payroll stack up in a visual way? A way which can better illustrate at a glance how competitive they've been. Is Carl the same as Jim? Are the Twins the franchise today as they were 20 years ago?

What does 16th or 19th rank look like? See for yourself how the Twins stack up historically, all the way back to 1988 based on data from The Baseball Cube. 2024 data comes from Spotrac so the methodology might be a bit different. You can see some major trends and how baseball competition levels were affected by changes to the CBA and television, etc. Up until about 1990, the differences from the haves to the have nots wasn't so huge. The Twins were right in the thick of things as one of the upper payroll teams. A paradigm shift occurred and baseball competition levels would never be the same. Another shift in the late 90s changed the landscape yet again. Suddenly, the gap became massive, and Carl Pohlad opted for the bare minimum cost philosophy as the Twins secured the lowest payrolls in MLB. Contraction didn't happen, and Twins payrolls rose to about the bottom of the 3rd quartile of teams until Target Field. When Target Field opened, Carl Pohlad was dead with his son, Jim, having taken over. Jim pushed payroll up a full bracket and more closely followed the bottom of the 2nd quartile of teams. Right about dead mid market combined from 2010-2022, but it appears there's another shift going on.


 
Payrolls and revenues are trending up, and the Pohlad family appear to be more committed to trend back to the days of their father, and the Metrodome as attendance falters. Carl Pohlad was a miser. While generous from a charitable standpoint, and an honorable man with multiple purple hearts, a bronze star with clusters and a fantastic personal reputation amongst the people who knew him, he did not accept losses from businesses, and the Twins were a business to him. Carl's first love was football, and he actively attempted to purchase a controlling interest in the Minnesota Vikings, but was rebuffed because he owned a controlling interest in the Twins already. I have to wonder if Jim is getting miserly as he ages? Frustration with attendance and an inability to get a new stadium built led Carl to cut the payroll down to the bottom of the barrel and field more than a handful of terrible, non-competitive teams while threatening to sell the team to a party who would move the franchise out of state or even potentially contract the team entirely. This new philosophy for the Twins' ownership on the back of frustration with attendance potentially signals it's time for the Pohlads to sell the team to an owner with better business sense because Twins revenue shouldn't be as low as it is. Poorly negotiated TV deals, poor marketing and a lack of accountability at the head of the organization have allowed ownership to assume revenues are fixed so costs must be cut rather than understanding how to expand revenues to keep the team competitive with mid-market teams.

The Pohlads also appear to lack understanding of how team payrolls work. Joe Pohlad pointed to the Orioles as an example, but Baltimore has fielded a payroll higher than the Twins in 21 of the past 37 seasons (57%) including 3 seasons above the maximum payroll in Twins' history despite a much smaller market than Minneapolis. The Orioles recently employed the tank Astros philosophy of the 2010s initiating a total burn down of their roster with the willingness to field the worst teams in baseball year in and out while undertaking a massive rebuild. Now in a competitive window, Baltimore is once again expanding their payroll rapidly, and I expect they'll surpass the Twins once again next season. Baltimore would never have burned down a team in their prime competitive window.

This new (old) Pohlad philosophy is not only a poor look, it's a disservice to the fans, and the taxpayers who built Target Field with the expectation ownership would keep their end of the bargain and fund the team appropriately. It reeks of panic, frustration, poor business management, and dysfunction. If this is what the Pohlads bring to the table now, it's best to find fresh new ownership with a better philosophy.

What is an “Ace”?

There is no accepted definition for a pitcher earning the moniker “ace” which leads to all kind of friendly to less friendly debates when the declaration pitcher A is or is not an “ace.”

For me, an ace pitcher needs to have a few things on their resume.
1. An ERA of 3.39 or lower or a combination of history and FIP/SIERA/xFIP which suggests their ERA should be in that category
2. Long streaks of starts with 5.0+ (usually 6.0+) innings and ERA’s under 4.00 in those starts. We’re talking a bare minimum of 4, but often 5 or 6+ games in a row.
3. A pattern of starts which suggests the long streaks are earned by seeing consistent starts with FIPs below 4.00.

The basic gist is a pitcher where you don’t hope they pitch well, you just expect it’s a near automatic win when they start for you. A pitcher you have confidence to deliver a great start against whatever team or opposing pitcher they start against.

Item’s #2 and #3 separate “aces” from pitchers who’ve been lucky over a few starts or are up and down where you don’t really know what to expect from them on the mound. Jose Berrios was never an ace in my book. At his peak, he was a back end #2 or high end #3, but his bonus was just how much of a work horse he really was. He’d generally go 3 starts between hiccups like a typical mid rotation guy. Again, it’s the difference between expectation and hope.

Taking a look at the top 5 fWAR starting pitchers with 70+ innings (gets us to 128 total) this season and compare them to the Twins’ starters, you can see clear distinctions between what I consider to be an “ace” level pitcher, and our rotation. Ober has been the best starter for the Twins this year, but it’s clear he’s in a different class than the “aces.” I’ve also added trade interest kind of guys. Fedde, Flaherty, Kikuchi, Eflin, Eovaldi, Sears, Rogers, Lorenzen and Berrios' 2021 to the mix for comparisons. Berrios was that borderline #2 guy. He mostly pitched well enough to deserve a #2 monkier, but the results weren't quite up to how consistent he needed to be on the mound.




QS2 is my definition of a qualified start. 5.0+ innings pitched, ERA of 3.99 or lower. If a pitcher leaves the game with an ERA under 4.00, there's a good chance their team only needs to score 4 runs to win the game, and that should happen well over 50% of the time. If they leave the game with an ERA of 4.00 or higher, there's a good chance their team will need to score 5 runs or more to win the game, and that has a dramatic impact on likelihood of a win. Every run allowed by a team between 0 and 5 causes a major shift in likelihood of winning, and that's just a fact. Allowing more than 5, well, the odds shift less and less because you're already hosed if you have to ask your offense to put up more than 6.
FIP2 is the same, but an FIP of 3.99 or lower
Max Streak is the number of starts in a row where the pitcher manages a QS2
Streaks 4+ is how many of those 4 game streaks the pitcher has put together this year

Some guidelines you'll probably start recognizing if you look at pitchers in this way
70%+ on the QS2/FIP2 with 5+ game streaks is about the land of the ace.
60-70% is the land of the #2 with 4 game streaks
50-60% is the land of the #3 with 3 game streaks
--------------------------------------------------------------------
below the line are not really playoff caliber starters. They're guys who might get a start, but not guys you want starting a pivotable game.
40-50% is the land of the #4 with less than 3 game streaks
39% and lower is the land of the #5 with less than 3 game streaks

Bailey Ober has been the best pitcher on the Twins this year, but he's a clear gap away from the land of ace pitchers. He's probably in the #2 starter category right now, really pitching well. Lopez is next in line, but he honestly falls into the #3 bracket so far this year as he hasn't been consistent enough yet. Hopefully, he's better in the second half. The Twins really need him to step it up. Joe Ryan has consistently performed under his FIP, and he hasn't been reliable when it comes to putting up my definition of a quality start. He's pretty similar to 2021 Jose Berrios, though a bit less reliable. Borderline in the #3 category, I'd say. SWR is a bit of an oddball. Totally unreliable with good start, bad start, good start, bad start. No idea what you're getting with him, right on the border of #3-4 for me. Paddack falls into the #5 rotation arm category. The 35% FIP2% is just too bold to ignore. All in all, I'd say the Twins have a mismatch at the top of the rotation against other playoff teams, but we're deep with quality starters after that. Lopez and Ober are the key to the Twins playoff rotation. If Ober can keep it up and Lopez can pick it up, we may roll into the playoffs with 2 #2 guys, and a solid #3. Not quite where you'd like to be, but competitive.  If Lopez sticks where he's at, the Twins will likely be at a clear disadvantage in the first 2 starts for the series, and potentially the 3rd.

If the Twins' bats can bail them out in game 1 of a playoff series, I like the Twins' chances against almost any other team. If the opponent's ace skunks us out of the gate like Wheeler or Skubal did recently, we're going to have a real tough row to hoe coming back IMHO.

I don't know how many times I've seen the Twins' ownership all lumped together as a singular, static entity. Similar to the entity known as "Falvine" or that childhood couple who got the blended name like Nateiffer or whatever. The perceived sins of the father infect the rest of the family by association like the way people go after the blood relations of presidents. The arguments surround the Twins being owned by misers who hurt the team's chance of being successful because they won't pay competitive salaries. Inconceivably large numbers get thrown around and ranks are used to provide a convenient reference furthering the commenter's opinion. But, just how does the Twins' historical payroll stack up in a visual way? A way which can better illustrate at a glance how competitive they've been. Is Carl the same as Jim? Are the Twins the franchise today as they were 20 years ago?

What does 16th or 19th rank look like? See for yourself how the Twins stack up historically, all the way back to 1988 based on data from The Baseball Cube. 2024 data comes from Spotrac so the methodology might be a bit different. You can see some major trends and how baseball competition levels were affected by changes to the CBA and television, etc. Up until about 1990, the differences from the haves to the have nots wasn't so huge. The Twins were right in the thick of things as one of the upper payroll teams. A paradigm shift occurred and baseball competition levels would never be the same. Another shift in the late 90s changed the landscape yet again. Suddenly, the gap became massive, and Carl Pohlad opted for the bare minimum cost philosophy as the Twins secured the lowest payrolls in MLB. Contraction didn't happen, and Twins payrolls rose to about the bottom of the 3rd quartile of teams until Target Field. When Target Field opened, Carl Pohlad was dead with his son, Jim, having taken over. Jim pushed payroll up a full bracket and more closely followed the bottom of the 2nd quartile of teams. Right about dead mid market combined from 2010-2022, but it appears there's another shift going on.


 
Payrolls and revenues are trending up, and the Pohlad family appear to be more committed to trend back to the days of their father, and the Metrodome as attendance falters. Carl Pohlad was a miser. While generous from a charitable standpoint, and an honorable man with multiple purple hearts, a bronze star with clusters and a fantastic personal reputation amongst the people who knew him, he did not accept losses from businesses, and the Twins were a business to him. Carl's first love was football, and he actively attempted to purchase a controlling interest in the Minnesota Vikings, but was rebuffed because he owned a controlling interest in the Twins already. I have to wonder if Jim is getting miserly as he ages? Frustration with attendance and an inability to get a new stadium built led Carl to cut the payroll down to the bottom of the barrel and field more than a handful of terrible, non-competitive teams while threatening to sell the team to a party who would move the franchise out of state or even potentially contract the team entirely. This new philosophy for the Twins' ownership on the back of frustration with attendance potentially signals it's time for the Pohlads to sell the team to an owner with better business sense because Twins revenue shouldn't be as low as it is. Poorly negotiated TV deals, poor marketing and a lack of accountability at the head of the organization have allowed ownership to assume revenues are fixed so costs must be cut rather than understanding how to expand revenues to keep the team competitive with mid-market teams.

The Pohlads also appear to lack understanding of how team payrolls work. Joe Pohlad pointed to the Orioles as an example, but Baltimore has fielded a payroll higher than the Twins in 21 of the past 37 seasons (57%) including 3 seasons above the maximum payroll in Twins' history despite a much smaller market than Minneapolis. The Orioles recently employed the tank Astros philosophy of the 2010s initiating a total burn down of their roster with the willingness to field the worst teams in baseball year in and out while undertaking a massive rebuild. Now in a competitive window, Baltimore is once again expanding their payroll rapidly, and I expect they'll surpass the Twins once again next season. Baltimore would never have burned down a team in their prime competitive window.

This new (old) Pohlad philosophy is not only a poor look, it's a disservice to the fans, and the taxpayers who built Target Field with the expectation ownership would keep their end of the bargain and fund the team appropriately. It reeks of panic, frustration, poor business management, and dysfunction. If this is what the Pohlads bring to the table now, it's best to find fresh new ownership with a better philosophy.

What is an “Ace”?

There is no accepted definition for a pitcher earning the moniker “ace” which leads to all kind of friendly to less friendly debates when the declaration pitcher A is or is not an “ace.”

For me, an ace pitcher needs to have a few things on their resume.
1. An ERA of 3.39 or lower or a combination of history and FIP/SIERA/xFIP which suggests their ERA should be in that category
2. Long streaks of starts with 5.0+ (usually 6.0+) innings and ERA’s under 4.00 in those starts. We’re talking a bare minimum of 4, but often 5 or 6+ games in a row.
3. A pattern of starts which suggests the long streaks are earned by seeing consistent starts with FIPs below 4.00.

The basic gist is a pitcher where you don’t hope they pitch well, you just expect it’s a near automatic win when they start for you. A pitcher you have confidence to deliver a great start against whatever team or opposing pitcher they start against.

Item’s #2 and #3 separate “aces” from pitchers who’ve been lucky over a few starts or are up and down where you don’t really know what to expect from them on the mound. Jose Berrios was never an ace in my book. At his peak, he was a back end #2 or high end #3, but his bonus was just how much of a work horse he really was. He’d generally go 3 starts between hiccups like a typical mid rotation guy. Again, it’s the difference between expectation and hope.

Taking a look at the top 5 fWAR starting pitchers with 70+ innings (gets us to 128 total) this season and compare them to the Twins’ starters, you can see clear distinctions between what I consider to be an “ace” level pitcher, and our rotation. Ober has been the best starter for the Twins this year, but it’s clear he’s in a different class than the “aces.” I’ve also added trade interest kind of guys. Fedde, Flaherty, Kikuchi, Eflin, Eovaldi, Sears, Rogers, Lorenzen and Berrios' 2021 to the mix for comparisons. Berrios was that borderline #2 guy. He mostly pitched well enough to deserve a #2 monkier, but the results weren't quite up to how consistent he needed to be on the mound.




QS2 is my definition of a qualified start. 5.0+ innings pitched, ERA of 3.99 or lower. If a pitcher leaves the game with an ERA under 4.00, there's a good chance their team only needs to score 4 runs to win the game, and that should happen well over 50% of the time. If they leave the game with an ERA of 4.00 or higher, there's a good chance their team will need to score 5 runs or more to win the game, and that has a dramatic impact on likelihood of a win. Every run allowed by a team between 0 and 5 causes a major shift in likelihood of winning, and that's just a fact. Allowing more than 5, well, the odds shift less and less because you're already hosed if you have to ask your offense to put up more than 6.
FIP2 is the same, but an FIP of 3.99 or lower
Max Streak is the number of starts in a row where the pitcher manages a QS2
Streaks 4+ is how many of those 4 game streaks the pitcher has put together this year

Some guidelines you'll probably start recognizing if you look at pitchers in this way
70%+ on the QS2/FIP2 with 5+ game streaks is about the land of the ace.
60-70% is the land of the #2 with 4 game streaks
50-60% is the land of the #3 with 3 game streaks
--------------------------------------------------------------------
below the line are not really playoff caliber starters. They're guys who might get a start, but not guys you want starting a pivotable game.
40-50% is the land of the #4 with less than 3 game streaks
39% and lower is the land of the #5 with less than 3 game streaks

Bailey Ober has been the best pitcher on the Twins this year, but he's a clear gap away from the land of ace pitchers. He's probably in the #2 starter category right now, really pitching well. Lopez is next in line, but he honestly falls into the #3 bracket so far this year as he hasn't been consistent enough yet. Hopefully, he's better in the second half. The Twins really need him to step it up. Joe Ryan has consistently performed under his FIP, and he hasn't been reliable when it comes to putting up my definition of a quality start. He's pretty similar to 2021 Jose Berrios, though a bit less reliable. Borderline in the #3 category, I'd say. SWR is a bit of an oddball. Totally unreliable with good start, bad start, good start, bad start. No idea what you're getting with him, right on the border of #3-4 for me. Paddack falls into the #5 rotation arm category. The 35% FIP2% is just too bold to ignore. All in all, I'd say the Twins have a mismatch at the top of the rotation against other playoff teams, but we're deep with quality starters after that. Lopez and Ober are the key to the Twins playoff rotation. If Ober can keep it up and Lopez can pick it up, we may roll into the playoffs with 2 #2 guys, and a solid #3. Not quite where you'd like to be, but competitive.  If Lopez sticks where he's at, the Twins will likely be at a clear disadvantage in the first 2 starts for the series, and potentially the 3rd.

If the Twins' bats can bail them out in game 1 of a playoff series, I like the Twins' chances against almost any other team. If the opponent's ace skunks us out of the gate like Wheeler or Skubal did recently, we're going to have a real tough row to hoe coming back IMHO.

You bet your sweet bippy they do.  They do platoon.  A lot.  My apologies for the click-bait subject line.  (It's fun.  Almost went with "One Weird Trick Your 2024 Twins Use To Platoon")
How do the Twins rank versus the other 29 teams, in plate appearances by batters in same-arm matchups?
LHB-vs-LHP:   29th  (64 PA, OPS of .759 which is 5th in the majors)
RHB-vs-RHP: 23rd  (752 PA, OPS of .680 which is 15th in the majors)
They try their darndest not to let it happen, especially with their lefty bats.  And here is how they do in opposite arm matchups:
RHB-vs-LHP:  7th  (520 PA, OPS of .707 which is 16th in the majors)
LHB-vs-RHP:  6th  (920 PA, OPS of .693 which is 18th in the majors)
What is the point of these numbers?  One, in case you wondered whether they go to great lengths to set up favorable hitting matchups, yes, yes they do.  Two, they aren't notably effective at exploiting these matchups.  Three, an oddity is that their unfavorable lefty matchups rank better in OPS versus their competitors than their favorable ones do.
Maybe the modest level of success at bat this season (they rank 16th overall in OPS) would be worse if they weren't doing things as they are.  Plus in addition also too, because the manager chooses which batter hits when, there is bias to all these statistics that is outside my control to account for.  The better results for left-handed batters against lefty pitchers than righties, in absolute terms, suggests Rocco is careful which bats to play in that matchup.
But mostly what I see is that they go to extremes, and reap little to no overall reward for their efforts.  The lefty bats don't clobber righties, and the righty bats don't crush lefties.  Why, again, are we even doing this?
I can't help having flashbacks to the old quote from the dugout: "I managed good, but they sure played bad."  (ChatGPT 3.5 attributes this to Casey Stengel; therefore I feel 99% confident that it must have been someone else.  Rocco Baldelli may become the source of the quote, going forward.)  But at some point, that guy who "managed good" needs to stop and ask if it's worth the trouble, and what better thing might be tried.

Jim Pohlad made the decision to hire Derek Falvey 6 years ago after a disappointing 2016 season where expectations were raised based on improvements seen in 2015. The primary decision to choose Falvey was modernizing the player development system with analytics so the Twins' farm system could sustain competitive play long term operating like a smaller market team. The biggest issue the Twins had was their utter failure to develop front line starters. Jose Berrios, despite his stellar numbers in the minors, had been eaten alive by MLB hitters and the farm system was looking a bit rough. Naturally, having graduated Sano, Buxton, Kepler, and Berrios in the last two years, that's going to see a farm system take a beating.
Falvey went into 2017's playoffs with a virtually identical team as the Twins fielded in 2016, and again in 2019 and 2020. The winning tradition was restored! Except Falvey did it all with a roster largely created from the drafts and signings of Bill Smith and Terry Ryan. Falvey had major hits... but most of the hits eventually turned into misses. Ervin Santana, Jake Odorizzi and Jason Castro all ended their time with the Twins with a whimper, but this article is really about the sustainability factor. That's why Falvey was hired. Not for free agent signings. For a sustainable, productive draft and development system built from analytics and cutting edge baseball knowledge.
I graded Falvey's top 3 rounds of drafting a couple months ago, and the situation has changed quite a bit, but again, I'm interested in the sustainability of the team. What do the Twins have in the system to fill the enormous holes on the roster coming up? Again, the idea was not that Falvey constructs a roster out of free agents when he was hired. What did the system look like when Falvey started?
#1 - Nick Gordon*
#2 - Tyler Jay
#3 - Fernando Romero*
#4 - Alex Kirilloff*
#5 - Stephen Gonsalves*
#6 - Wander Javier
#7 - Kohl Stewart*
#8 - Adalberto Mejia*
#9 - Ben Rortvedt*
#10 - Zach Granite*
*7 of those players made significant appearances at the MLB level, and in general, they were viewed pretty highly at the time. The Twins' farm system was right in the middle.

So what about today? There isn't much there. MLB's top prospects set for the Twins are:
#1 Lewis (a23)- Undoubtedly the only elite prospect in the Twins system. He could be a star. He's also younger than Martin or Balazovic... as hard as that is to believe. Lewis torched AAA and proceeded to shine bright in a handful of plate appearances at the MLB level. With a character as brilliant as his athleticism, the sky is the limit... if he can stay on the field and prove his performance wasn't a SSS fluke.
#2 Martin (a23) - Has seen his stock take a real beating this year. He went from a consensus top 50 prospect to falling well out of the top 100 on the failure to develop power and a lower batting average coupled with embarrassing defense. There was improvement in Martin's defense at SS with the error rate trending towards almost acceptable, but Martin's suffered an injured elbow diving for a ball at the beginning of July. It wasn't expected to be a big deal, but here we are a month later and he still hasn't played while (stop me if you've heard this one) the Twins hadn't been able to diagnose the issue at least as of mid July...
#3 Balazovic (a23) - If Martin's stock had a silver lining, it's Balazovic's stock. It's not possible to understate how disastrous his performance has been this year. He wouldn't even be ranked on a good farm system top 15 at this point. While there is the hope Balazovic's struggles are related to injury, the Twins don't seem to feel like the injury is an issue. They keep sending him out, Balazovic continues to get consistently destroyed.
#4 Woods-Richardson (a21) - He had another great start to the season, but he started struggling with control like last year leading to a rocketing WHIP and lots of runs. Then, there was a lengthy IL trip for COVID. Woods-Richardson probably moves to my #2 prospect in the Twins system at this point with overall impressive strike out rates, a great 4 pitch combo and stretches where he dominates. There's still a lot of potential.
#5 Matt Canterino - (a24) - Bordering on non-prospect age, Canterino is putting up impressive K rates with equally depressing BB rates in AA. He's working his way back from yet another elbow strain in the Florida Complex league where he was knocked around in his latest 1 inning appearance. He's certainly not a top 10 prospect in a good farm system and hasn't pitched into the 5 inning this year.
#6 Noah Miller (a19) - The only remaining draft pick from the first 3 rounds of 2021's draft now that Petty, Povich and Hajjar have all been moved, Miller is holding his own at the plate in Ft. Myers while playing very good defense. He's not an elite prospect at this point, but there's a chance Miller can improve his contact skills as he was drafted out of high school. Right now, Miller looks passive at the plate with a 15% walk and 25% strikeout rate more associated with power hitters, but Miller's power tool is scouted as pretty modest and he hasn't shown any of it this year.
#7 Matt Wallner (a24) - Wallner was racing up the prospect lists as a full fledged supernova-style bright spot in the Twins' system. Since his promotion to AAA, Wallner has gone stone cold with a .116/.224/.140 triple slash. That said, it's just 49 plate appearances. Please, please let his swing return to crush the opponent pitchers to end the season.
#8 Misael Urbina (a20) - A speedy center fielder international prospect signed out of Venezuela, Urbina had a really great year in Ft. Myers last season. Unfortunately, he missed half this year due to visa issues. Currently getting his legs under him back in rookie ball, Urbina's hoping to salvage the season.
#9 Brayan Medina (a19) - Came over in the Rogers/Rooker trade for Paddack/Pagan as a toss in. It speaks volumes when the Padres' PTBNL is in your top 10... In rookie ball, Medina has walked a ton of batters while holding the hits to a reasonable number with the help of a .265 BABIP and paltry 5.0% HR/FB rate. He's not in a good farm's top 20, possibly not top 30.
#10 Ronny Henriquez (a22) - The extra player received as part of the Garver trade to the Rangers, Henriquez has struggled to keep batters off the base paths in AAA. Ronny was ranked as the Rangers #15 prospect due to his ability to generate strikeouts and limit the free pass last year in AA. He's probably taken a step back this year as the walk rate has increased by 50% at AAA and batters have been able to generate hits at will leading to his 1.52 WHIP and very rough 5.71 ERA. Also, the Twins have not really been limiting pitches much with Henriquez allowing him to throw up to 92... but he's rarely been able to finish 5 innings. That said, Henriquez has been able to keep a solid K% (though certainly not elite for MiLB), the .352 BABIP is way too high and the walk rate still isn't terrible by any means. So there's still some potential. On a good farm, Henriquez is probably borderline top 20, helped by his age.

I'd argue the farm is currently a big step back from the position it was in back at the start of 2017, where it was middle of the pack. Barring some real turnarounds, I expect the Twins to grade out bottom 5.

So where does that leave Falvey? He was brought in to rebuild the farm system so it would produce high value prospects and especially stock the rotation with high value, inexpensive cost controlled rotation arms the Twins could depend on for several years. While the farm has essentially produced 2 years of Sonny Gray, he's not cheap at $12MM per year and 2 years is hardly a long time. We also used the farm to pick up Tyler Mahle for 1.5 years, but he's also not going to be cheap next year, and certainly not long term. Maybe $12MM? The one glowing example in terms of expense and control is honestly Kenta Maeda. We got 4 years of a cheap, high value rotation arm from moving Brusdar Graterol. That said, I'm not sure the agreed upon strategy was to trade all the talent in the MiLB system for a couple years of productive MLB starters. That's not sustainable and it honestly hasn't been cheap overall. Instead, the Twins have typically felt like a directionless Frankenstein monster to me, pieced together each offseason in the hopes the pieces all gel and what comes out is a lightning strike with the scream "It's ALIVE!!" to begin a playoff season. 

Of course, winning solves everything. If the Twins win the World Series or even win a single playoff series, all will likely be forgotten. Every step short of that, though, has to heat up the seat under Falvey, especially given Falvey stretched the Twins' budget to $138MM (and beyond with recent trades) this year. Hard to believe the Twins turn a profit based on the attendance levels I saw and the Pohlads do not run this team as a hobby.

Jim Pohlad made the decision to hire Derek Falvey 6 years ago after a disappointing 2016 season where expectations were raised based on improvements seen in 2015. The primary decision to choose Falvey was modernizing the player development system with analytics so the Twins' farm system could sustain competitive play long term operating like a smaller market team. The biggest issue the Twins had was their utter failure to develop front line starters. Jose Berrios, despite his stellar numbers in the minors, had been eaten alive by MLB hitters and the farm system was looking a bit rough. Naturally, having graduated Sano, Buxton, Kepler, and Berrios in the last two years, that's going to see a farm system take a beating.
Falvey went into 2017's playoffs with a virtually identical team as the Twins fielded in 2016, and again in 2019 and 2020. The winning tradition was restored! Except Falvey did it all with a roster largely created from the drafts and signings of Bill Smith and Terry Ryan. Falvey had major hits... but most of the hits eventually turned into misses. Ervin Santana, Jake Odorizzi and Jason Castro all ended their time with the Twins with a whimper, but this article is really about the sustainability factor. That's why Falvey was hired. Not for free agent signings. For a sustainable, productive draft and development system built from analytics and cutting edge baseball knowledge.
I graded Falvey's top 3 rounds of drafting a couple months ago, and the situation has changed quite a bit, but again, I'm interested in the sustainability of the team. What do the Twins have in the system to fill the enormous holes on the roster coming up? Again, the idea was not that Falvey constructs a roster out of free agents when he was hired. What did the system look like when Falvey started?
#1 - Nick Gordon*
#2 - Tyler Jay
#3 - Fernando Romero*
#4 - Alex Kirilloff*
#5 - Stephen Gonsalves*
#6 - Wander Javier
#7 - Kohl Stewart*
#8 - Adalberto Mejia*
#9 - Ben Rortvedt*
#10 - Zach Granite*
*7 of those players made significant appearances at the MLB level, and in general, they were viewed pretty highly at the time. The Twins' farm system was right in the middle.

So what about today? There isn't much there. MLB's top prospects set for the Twins are:
#1 Lewis (a23)- Undoubtedly the only elite prospect in the Twins system. He could be a star. He's also younger than Martin or Balazovic... as hard as that is to believe. Lewis torched AAA and proceeded to shine bright in a handful of plate appearances at the MLB level. With a character as brilliant as his athleticism, the sky is the limit... if he can stay on the field and prove his performance wasn't a SSS fluke.
#2 Martin (a23) - Has seen his stock take a real beating this year. He went from a consensus top 50 prospect to falling well out of the top 100 on the failure to develop power and a lower batting average coupled with embarrassing defense. There was improvement in Martin's defense at SS with the error rate trending towards almost acceptable, but Martin's suffered an injured elbow diving for a ball at the beginning of July. It wasn't expected to be a big deal, but here we are a month later and he still hasn't played while (stop me if you've heard this one) the Twins hadn't been able to diagnose the issue at least as of mid July...
#3 Balazovic (a23) - If Martin's stock had a silver lining, it's Balazovic's stock. It's not possible to understate how disastrous his performance has been this year. He wouldn't even be ranked on a good farm system top 15 at this point. While there is the hope Balazovic's struggles are related to injury, the Twins don't seem to feel like the injury is an issue. They keep sending him out, Balazovic continues to get consistently destroyed.
#4 Woods-Richardson (a21) - He had another great start to the season, but he started struggling with control like last year leading to a rocketing WHIP and lots of runs. Then, there was a lengthy IL trip for COVID. Woods-Richardson probably moves to my #2 prospect in the Twins system at this point with overall impressive strike out rates, a great 4 pitch combo and stretches where he dominates. There's still a lot of potential.
#5 Matt Canterino - (a24) - Bordering on non-prospect age, Canterino is putting up impressive K rates with equally depressing BB rates in AA. He's working his way back from yet another elbow strain in the Florida Complex league where he was knocked around in his latest 1 inning appearance. He's certainly not a top 10 prospect in a good farm system and hasn't pitched into the 5 inning this year.
#6 Noah Miller (a19) - The only remaining draft pick from the first 3 rounds of 2021's draft now that Petty, Povich and Hajjar have all been moved, Miller is holding his own at the plate in Ft. Myers while playing very good defense. He's not an elite prospect at this point, but there's a chance Miller can improve his contact skills as he was drafted out of high school. Right now, Miller looks passive at the plate with a 15% walk and 25% strikeout rate more associated with power hitters, but Miller's power tool is scouted as pretty modest and he hasn't shown any of it this year.
#7 Matt Wallner (a24) - Wallner was racing up the prospect lists as a full fledged supernova-style bright spot in the Twins' system. Since his promotion to AAA, Wallner has gone stone cold with a .116/.224/.140 triple slash. That said, it's just 49 plate appearances. Please, please let his swing return to crush the opponent pitchers to end the season.
#8 Misael Urbina (a20) - A speedy center fielder international prospect signed out of Venezuela, Urbina had a really great year in Ft. Myers last season. Unfortunately, he missed half this year due to visa issues. Currently getting his legs under him back in rookie ball, Urbina's hoping to salvage the season.
#9 Brayan Medina (a19) - Came over in the Rogers/Rooker trade for Paddack/Pagan as a toss in. It speaks volumes when the Padres' PTBNL is in your top 10... In rookie ball, Medina has walked a ton of batters while holding the hits to a reasonable number with the help of a .265 BABIP and paltry 5.0% HR/FB rate. He's not in a good farm's top 20, possibly not top 30.
#10 Ronny Henriquez (a22) - The extra player received as part of the Garver trade to the Rangers, Henriquez has struggled to keep batters off the base paths in AAA. Ronny was ranked as the Rangers #15 prospect due to his ability to generate strikeouts and limit the free pass last year in AA. He's probably taken a step back this year as the walk rate has increased by 50% at AAA and batters have been able to generate hits at will leading to his 1.52 WHIP and very rough 5.71 ERA. Also, the Twins have not really been limiting pitches much with Henriquez allowing him to throw up to 92... but he's rarely been able to finish 5 innings. That said, Henriquez has been able to keep a solid K% (though certainly not elite for MiLB), the .352 BABIP is way too high and the walk rate still isn't terrible by any means. So there's still some potential. On a good farm, Henriquez is probably borderline top 20, helped by his age.

I'd argue the farm is currently a big step back from the position it was in back at the start of 2017, where it was middle of the pack. Barring some real turnarounds, I expect the Twins to grade out bottom 5.

So where does that leave Falvey? He was brought in to rebuild the farm system so it would produce high value prospects and especially stock the rotation with high value, inexpensive cost controlled rotation arms the Twins could depend on for several years. While the farm has essentially produced 2 years of Sonny Gray, he's not cheap at $12MM per year and 2 years is hardly a long time. We also used the farm to pick up Tyler Mahle for 1.5 years, but he's also not going to be cheap next year, and certainly not long term. Maybe $12MM? The one glowing example in terms of expense and control is honestly Kenta Maeda. We got 4 years of a cheap, high value rotation arm from moving Brusdar Graterol. That said, I'm not sure the agreed upon strategy was to trade all the talent in the MiLB system for a couple years of productive MLB starters. That's not sustainable and it honestly hasn't been cheap overall. Instead, the Twins have typically felt like a directionless Frankenstein monster to me, pieced together each offseason in the hopes the pieces all gel and what comes out is a lightning strike with the scream "It's ALIVE!!" to begin a playoff season. 

Of course, winning solves everything. If the Twins win the World Series or even win a single playoff series, all will likely be forgotten. Every step short of that, though, has to heat up the seat under Falvey, especially given Falvey stretched the Twins' budget to $138MM (and beyond with recent trades) this year. Hard to believe the Twins turn a profit based on the attendance levels I saw and the Pohlads do not run this team as a hobby.

Jim Pohlad made the decision to hire Derek Falvey 6 years ago after a disappointing 2016 season where expectations were raised based on improvements seen in 2015. The primary decision to choose Falvey was modernizing the player development system with analytics so the Twins' farm system could sustain competitive play long term operating like a smaller market team. The biggest issue the Twins had was their utter failure to develop front line starters. Jose Berrios, despite his stellar numbers in the minors, had been eaten alive by MLB hitters and the farm system was looking a bit rough. Naturally, having graduated Sano, Buxton, Kepler, and Berrios in the last two years, that's going to see a farm system take a beating.
Falvey went into 2017's playoffs with a virtually identical team as the Twins fielded in 2016, and again in 2019 and 2020. The winning tradition was restored! Except Falvey did it all with a roster largely created from the drafts and signings of Bill Smith and Terry Ryan. Falvey had major hits... but most of the hits eventually turned into misses. Ervin Santana, Jake Odorizzi and Jason Castro all ended their time with the Twins with a whimper, but this article is really about the sustainability factor. That's why Falvey was hired. Not for free agent signings. For a sustainable, productive draft and development system built from analytics and cutting edge baseball knowledge.
I graded Falvey's top 3 rounds of drafting a couple months ago, and the situation has changed quite a bit, but again, I'm interested in the sustainability of the team. What do the Twins have in the system to fill the enormous holes on the roster coming up? Again, the idea was not that Falvey constructs a roster out of free agents when he was hired. What did the system look like when Falvey started?
#1 - Nick Gordon*
#2 - Tyler Jay
#3 - Fernando Romero*
#4 - Alex Kirilloff*
#5 - Stephen Gonsalves*
#6 - Wander Javier
#7 - Kohl Stewart*
#8 - Adalberto Mejia*
#9 - Ben Rortvedt*
#10 - Zach Granite*
*7 of those players made significant appearances at the MLB level, and in general, they were viewed pretty highly at the time. The Twins' farm system was right in the middle.

So what about today? There isn't much there. MLB's top prospects set for the Twins are:
#1 Lewis (a23)- Undoubtedly the only elite prospect in the Twins system. He could be a star. He's also younger than Martin or Balazovic... as hard as that is to believe. Lewis torched AAA and proceeded to shine bright in a handful of plate appearances at the MLB level. With a character as brilliant as his athleticism, the sky is the limit... if he can stay on the field and prove his performance wasn't a SSS fluke.
#2 Martin (a23) - Has seen his stock take a real beating this year. He went from a consensus top 50 prospect to falling well out of the top 100 on the failure to develop power and a lower batting average coupled with embarrassing defense. There was improvement in Martin's defense at SS with the error rate trending towards almost acceptable, but Martin's suffered an injured elbow diving for a ball at the beginning of July. It wasn't expected to be a big deal, but here we are a month later and he still hasn't played while (stop me if you've heard this one) the Twins hadn't been able to diagnose the issue at least as of mid July...
#3 Balazovic (a23) - If Martin's stock had a silver lining, it's Balazovic's stock. It's not possible to understate how disastrous his performance has been this year. He wouldn't even be ranked on a good farm system top 15 at this point. While there is the hope Balazovic's struggles are related to injury, the Twins don't seem to feel like the injury is an issue. They keep sending him out, Balazovic continues to get consistently destroyed.
#4 Woods-Richardson (a21) - He had another great start to the season, but he started struggling with control like last year leading to a rocketing WHIP and lots of runs. Then, there was a lengthy IL trip for COVID. Woods-Richardson probably moves to my #2 prospect in the Twins system at this point with overall impressive strike out rates, a great 4 pitch combo and stretches where he dominates. There's still a lot of potential.
#5 Matt Canterino - (a24) - Bordering on non-prospect age, Canterino is putting up impressive K rates with equally depressing BB rates in AA. He's working his way back from yet another elbow strain in the Florida Complex league where he was knocked around in his latest 1 inning appearance. He's certainly not a top 10 prospect in a good farm system and hasn't pitched into the 5 inning this year.
#6 Noah Miller (a19) - The only remaining draft pick from the first 3 rounds of 2021's draft now that Petty, Povich and Hajjar have all been moved, Miller is holding his own at the plate in Ft. Myers while playing very good defense. He's not an elite prospect at this point, but there's a chance Miller can improve his contact skills as he was drafted out of high school. Right now, Miller looks passive at the plate with a 15% walk and 25% strikeout rate more associated with power hitters, but Miller's power tool is scouted as pretty modest and he hasn't shown any of it this year.
#7 Matt Wallner (a24) - Wallner was racing up the prospect lists as a full fledged supernova-style bright spot in the Twins' system. Since his promotion to AAA, Wallner has gone stone cold with a .116/.224/.140 triple slash. That said, it's just 49 plate appearances. Please, please let his swing return to crush the opponent pitchers to end the season.
#8 Misael Urbina (a20) - A speedy center fielder international prospect signed out of Venezuela, Urbina had a really great year in Ft. Myers last season. Unfortunately, he missed half this year due to visa issues. Currently getting his legs under him back in rookie ball, Urbina's hoping to salvage the season.
#9 Brayan Medina (a19) - Came over in the Rogers/Rooker trade for Paddack/Pagan as a toss in. It speaks volumes when the Padres' PTBNL is in your top 10... In rookie ball, Medina has walked a ton of batters while holding the hits to a reasonable number with the help of a .265 BABIP and paltry 5.0% HR/FB rate. He's not in a good farm's top 20, possibly not top 30.
#10 Ronny Henriquez (a22) - The extra player received as part of the Garver trade to the Rangers, Henriquez has struggled to keep batters off the base paths in AAA. Ronny was ranked as the Rangers #15 prospect due to his ability to generate strikeouts and limit the free pass last year in AA. He's probably taken a step back this year as the walk rate has increased by 50% at AAA and batters have been able to generate hits at will leading to his 1.52 WHIP and very rough 5.71 ERA. Also, the Twins have not really been limiting pitches much with Henriquez allowing him to throw up to 92... but he's rarely been able to finish 5 innings. That said, Henriquez has been able to keep a solid K% (though certainly not elite for MiLB), the .352 BABIP is way too high and the walk rate still isn't terrible by any means. So there's still some potential. On a good farm, Henriquez is probably borderline top 20, helped by his age.

I'd argue the farm is currently a big step back from the position it was in back at the start of 2017, where it was middle of the pack. Barring some real turnarounds, I expect the Twins to grade out bottom 5.

So where does that leave Falvey? He was brought in to rebuild the farm system so it would produce high value prospects and especially stock the rotation with high value, inexpensive cost controlled rotation arms the Twins could depend on for several years. While the farm has essentially produced 2 years of Sonny Gray, he's not cheap at $12MM per year and 2 years is hardly a long time. We also used the farm to pick up Tyler Mahle for 1.5 years, but he's also not going to be cheap next year, and certainly not long term. Maybe $12MM? The one glowing example in terms of expense and control is honestly Kenta Maeda. We got 4 years of a cheap, high value rotation arm from moving Brusdar Graterol. That said, I'm not sure the agreed upon strategy was to trade all the talent in the MiLB system for a couple years of productive MLB starters. That's not sustainable and it honestly hasn't been cheap overall. Instead, the Twins have typically felt like a directionless Frankenstein monster to me, pieced together each offseason in the hopes the pieces all gel and what comes out is a lightning strike with the scream "It's ALIVE!!" to begin a playoff season. 

Of course, winning solves everything. If the Twins win the World Series or even win a single playoff series, all will likely be forgotten. Every step short of that, though, has to heat up the seat under Falvey, especially given Falvey stretched the Twins' budget to $138MM (and beyond with recent trades) this year. Hard to believe the Twins turn a profit based on the attendance levels I saw and the Pohlads do not run this team as a hobby.

Jim Pohlad made the decision to hire Derek Falvey 6 years ago after a disappointing 2016 season where expectations were raised based on improvements seen in 2015. The primary decision to choose Falvey was modernizing the player development system with analytics so the Twins' farm system could sustain competitive play long term operating like a smaller market team. The biggest issue the Twins had was their utter failure to develop front line starters. Jose Berrios, despite his stellar numbers in the minors, had been eaten alive by MLB hitters and the farm system was looking a bit rough. Naturally, having graduated Sano, Buxton, Kepler, and Berrios in the last two years, that's going to see a farm system take a beating.
Falvey went into 2017's playoffs with a virtually identical team as the Twins fielded in 2016, and again in 2019 and 2020. The winning tradition was restored! Except Falvey did it all with a roster largely created from the drafts and signings of Bill Smith and Terry Ryan. Falvey had major hits... but most of the hits eventually turned into misses. Ervin Santana, Jake Odorizzi and Jason Castro all ended their time with the Twins with a whimper, but this article is really about the sustainability factor. That's why Falvey was hired. Not for free agent signings. For a sustainable, productive draft and development system built from analytics and cutting edge baseball knowledge.
I graded Falvey's top 3 rounds of drafting a couple months ago, and the situation has changed quite a bit, but again, I'm interested in the sustainability of the team. What do the Twins have in the system to fill the enormous holes on the roster coming up? Again, the idea was not that Falvey constructs a roster out of free agents when he was hired. What did the system look like when Falvey started?
#1 - Nick Gordon*
#2 - Tyler Jay
#3 - Fernando Romero*
#4 - Alex Kirilloff*
#5 - Stephen Gonsalves*
#6 - Wander Javier
#7 - Kohl Stewart*
#8 - Adalberto Mejia*
#9 - Ben Rortvedt*
#10 - Zach Granite*
*7 of those players made significant appearances at the MLB level, and in general, they were viewed pretty highly at the time. The Twins' farm system was right in the middle.

So what about today? There isn't much there. MLB's top prospects set for the Twins are:
#1 Lewis (a23)- Undoubtedly the only elite prospect in the Twins system. He could be a star. He's also younger than Martin or Balazovic... as hard as that is to believe. Lewis torched AAA and proceeded to shine bright in a handful of plate appearances at the MLB level. With a character as brilliant as his athleticism, the sky is the limit... if he can stay on the field and prove his performance wasn't a SSS fluke.
#2 Martin (a23) - Has seen his stock take a real beating this year. He went from a consensus top 50 prospect to falling well out of the top 100 on the failure to develop power and a lower batting average coupled with embarrassing defense. There was improvement in Martin's defense at SS with the error rate trending towards almost acceptable, but Martin's suffered an injured elbow diving for a ball at the beginning of July. It wasn't expected to be a big deal, but here we are a month later and he still hasn't played while (stop me if you've heard this one) the Twins hadn't been able to diagnose the issue at least as of mid July...
#3 Balazovic (a23) - If Martin's stock had a silver lining, it's Balazovic's stock. It's not possible to understate how disastrous his performance has been this year. He wouldn't even be ranked on a good farm system top 15 at this point. While there is the hope Balazovic's struggles are related to injury, the Twins don't seem to feel like the injury is an issue. They keep sending him out, Balazovic continues to get consistently destroyed.
#4 Woods-Richardson (a21) - He had another great start to the season, but he started struggling with control like last year leading to a rocketing WHIP and lots of runs. Then, there was a lengthy IL trip for COVID. Woods-Richardson probably moves to my #2 prospect in the Twins system at this point with overall impressive strike out rates, a great 4 pitch combo and stretches where he dominates. There's still a lot of potential.
#5 Matt Canterino - (a24) - Bordering on non-prospect age, Canterino is putting up impressive K rates with equally depressing BB rates in AA. He's working his way back from yet another elbow strain in the Florida Complex league where he was knocked around in his latest 1 inning appearance. He's certainly not a top 10 prospect in a good farm system and hasn't pitched into the 5 inning this year.
#6 Noah Miller (a19) - The only remaining draft pick from the first 3 rounds of 2021's draft now that Petty, Povich and Hajjar have all been moved, Miller is holding his own at the plate in Ft. Myers while playing very good defense. He's not an elite prospect at this point, but there's a chance Miller can improve his contact skills as he was drafted out of high school. Right now, Miller looks passive at the plate with a 15% walk and 25% strikeout rate more associated with power hitters, but Miller's power tool is scouted as pretty modest and he hasn't shown any of it this year.
#7 Matt Wallner (a24) - Wallner was racing up the prospect lists as a full fledged supernova-style bright spot in the Twins' system. Since his promotion to AAA, Wallner has gone stone cold with a .116/.224/.140 triple slash. That said, it's just 49 plate appearances. Please, please let his swing return to crush the opponent pitchers to end the season.
#8 Misael Urbina (a20) - A speedy center fielder international prospect signed out of Venezuela, Urbina had a really great year in Ft. Myers last season. Unfortunately, he missed half this year due to visa issues. Currently getting his legs under him back in rookie ball, Urbina's hoping to salvage the season.
#9 Brayan Medina (a19) - Came over in the Rogers/Rooker trade for Paddack/Pagan as a toss in. It speaks volumes when the Padres' PTBNL is in your top 10... In rookie ball, Medina has walked a ton of batters while holding the hits to a reasonable number with the help of a .265 BABIP and paltry 5.0% HR/FB rate. He's not in a good farm's top 20, possibly not top 30.
#10 Ronny Henriquez (a22) - The extra player received as part of the Garver trade to the Rangers, Henriquez has struggled to keep batters off the base paths in AAA. Ronny was ranked as the Rangers #15 prospect due to his ability to generate strikeouts and limit the free pass last year in AA. He's probably taken a step back this year as the walk rate has increased by 50% at AAA and batters have been able to generate hits at will leading to his 1.52 WHIP and very rough 5.71 ERA. Also, the Twins have not really been limiting pitches much with Henriquez allowing him to throw up to 92... but he's rarely been able to finish 5 innings. That said, Henriquez has been able to keep a solid K% (though certainly not elite for MiLB), the .352 BABIP is way too high and the walk rate still isn't terrible by any means. So there's still some potential. On a good farm, Henriquez is probably borderline top 20, helped by his age.

I'd argue the farm is currently a big step back from the position it was in back at the start of 2017, where it was middle of the pack. Barring some real turnarounds, I expect the Twins to grade out bottom 5.

So where does that leave Falvey? He was brought in to rebuild the farm system so it would produce high value prospects and especially stock the rotation with high value, inexpensive cost controlled rotation arms the Twins could depend on for several years. While the farm has essentially produced 2 years of Sonny Gray, he's not cheap at $12MM per year and 2 years is hardly a long time. We also used the farm to pick up Tyler Mahle for 1.5 years, but he's also not going to be cheap next year, and certainly not long term. Maybe $12MM? The one glowing example in terms of expense and control is honestly Kenta Maeda. We got 4 years of a cheap, high value rotation arm from moving Brusdar Graterol. That said, I'm not sure the agreed upon strategy was to trade all the talent in the MiLB system for a couple years of productive MLB starters. That's not sustainable and it honestly hasn't been cheap overall. Instead, the Twins have typically felt like a directionless Frankenstein monster to me, pieced together each offseason in the hopes the pieces all gel and what comes out is a lightning strike with the scream "It's ALIVE!!" to begin a playoff season. 

Of course, winning solves everything. If the Twins win the World Series or even win a single playoff series, all will likely be forgotten. Every step short of that, though, has to heat up the seat under Falvey, especially given Falvey stretched the Twins' budget to $138MM (and beyond with recent trades) this year. Hard to believe the Twins turn a profit based on the attendance levels I saw and the Pohlads do not run this team as a hobby.

Since I've already stirred enough pots in regard to heated on the field debates, it's time to take it off the field to the stands! There have been a number of posts regarding the cost of food and drink at Target Field scaring away the fans, but I'm going to give a run down on many of the items and locations and whether you should eat or avoid!

First off, beer. If you fancy a pint at the game, there is an enormous selection of craft beers to pair with foods along with old-timey American style lagers perfect for a hot day at the park. I'm not going to list them all because... yeah, that's a lot. Location wise, the best concentration of craft options is right at Gate 34. Selections from Bent Paddle Cold Press Black Ale to Surly Furious and Goose Island Beer Hug IPAs and smooth sessionable Vienna (basically a red) style's like Schell's Firebrick are on tap here. If you're a Surly fan, right behind the left field bleachers and Gray Goose bar is a Surly stand with options you won't find elsewhere like Surly Hell. There are also "Minnesota Brews" stands around the stadium behind the Diamond Box areas where you can find a Grain Belt for nostalgia's sake. Other options are scattered around as well. The selection on the upper deck is much more limited to the usual suspects. My favorites: Bent Paddle Cold Press Black Ale (Gate 34), Beer Hug Hazy IPA (Gate 34), Surly Hell (behind Section 128) and Grain Belt (behind section 126).

Best Full Belly Deal at the Game:
Burger and fries basket. It's $15 at Hennepin Grill locations around the stadium, but the burger is big, tastes flame grilled and a solid enough choice. The fries are medium cut, crispy-ish outside, fluffy inside and taste rich like they've been fried in peanut oil. It's a good sized meal.
Senior Smokes: (105, 305) Barbacoa burrito. $10.50. It's not quite the gut stretcher the burger and fries is, but it's also only $10.50 in comparison to $15. It's a solid burrito near burrito specialty chain quality.

Best Budget Option: The hot dog or soft pretzel at various locations. They're $4.00 out the door and are enough to tide you over for a bit. Bring an empty water bottle in with you and get free water from various stations as well.

Best Burger(s):
Red Cow 60/40 Bacon (2) Sliders w/chips. $15.50 located behind section 126 Why the chips that nobody wants? I don't know. Anyway, the sliders themselves are Red Cow name worthy. They're absolutely excellent and pretty filling. Could use a little something vinegary like mustard or ketchup to break up the fatty flavor.
Blue Door Pub a 2nd place finish here goes to the $13.50 "Jucy Blusy" Cease and Desist Burger located at Gate 34 at the Jack Daniels Bar. It's very good and full sized, but the combo of thousand island and mayo is a bit sticky and bland.
Don't expect fast service for either of these burgers. There's always a line for the sliders (and they frequently run out for a bit of time at 126) and it seems like Jucy Blusy is cooked to order.

Best Sausages:
Kramarczuk's Bratwurst. $10 (behind field box 101, home plate box 112 and upstairs 312). It's a much better quality brat than the $8.50 standard option around the stadium. The polish is so greasy and salty (like polish sausage is) it makes for a real gut-bomb in my opinion.

Other Sandwich Options:
Turkey to Go sandwich $11 next to Hrbek's (114). Make sure you get one fresh made and they press the jerked turkey hard to get the juice out. Otherwise, you'll get a rather disgusting pile of slop bun. If made right, Turkey to Go is fantastic. Use the BBQ sauce if you want or skip it if you don't want it. Good either way. Side note, this is like the only station at the stadium which doesn't have an option to tip in the checkout app. What a bummer for the staff.
Philly Cheesesteak. $11. I think I stumbled across this one over behind section 110ish. Gross. Virtually inedible. While the grilled onions and peppers are very good and the cheese sauce is okay, the meat? (is it meat??) is like unseasoned sloppy joe mix or something. It's not right, best described as slop, and I didn't finish it. I like just about all food for the record.
Murray's Smoked Beef Sandwich (103). $15. Very high quality roast beef, but with no au juis and weak horseradish sauce, the sandwich is disappointingly bland. Skip it, this coming from a big fan of Murray's Restaurant.
Senior Smokes: $10.50 (105, 305) barbacoa beef burrito. Filling, maybe not quite as good as Chipotle, Pancheros and Qdoba, but certainly not far off. There are veggie options too, if you want. A far, far better deal than the nachos as this burrito will fill you up.
Tony O's Cubano: $13 (114). Gotta be honest here, a lot of people rant about this one, but it really didn't impress me compared to other options around the stadium. It's not that it's bad, it's just not that it was great. 
Unexpected Options:
Hot Indian (120): Chicken tikka (pronounced tick-a, not teek-a) masala. It's legitimately good and very mild + gluten free. They have some spicy sauce condiment which kicks 'er up a notch or two if you like. The cabbage veggie blend on the top is okay. Rice was a little undercooked, but all in all, I liked it. Note: I expect the chana masala will also be very good and it's vegan + gluten free. Haven't had Indian food before? Think a rich, thick, very savory and complex creamy tomato soup with tender chunks of chicken poured over rice and garnished with thin chopped cabbage here.

Side/Appetizer:
Cheese curds: $8 (109, 305). The portion is pretty good, but $8 still feels a little pricey. The curds are small sized, coated and deep fried mozzarella. They have good flavor, if not a bit salty. They're not truly as good as the ones you'll get at the State Fair as the batter used at Target Field is kinda meh, but they're still great if cheese is what you're craving.

Vegetarian?
Herbivorous Butcher Vegan Bratwurst (129). It's okay. You're not going to mistake it for the real deal and the aftertaste is decidedly veggie wheat thin flavor, but for the vegan/vegetarian folks, it's not bad.
Hot Indian (120): Chana masala... okay, I haven't had this dish yet, but when Indian is good, it's universally good and the tikka masala was solid here. 
What about dessert?:
Tiny Tim's Mini Donuts: (135) $6 for a bag. Excellent mini-donuts take my vote for the best sweet/dessert at the game. Cooked fresh, sprinkled hot with sugar, they're everything you hope for in mini donuts. Be aware, get them before the 7th inning, I've seen them run out more than once. I'd choose them over the expensive, and mediocre, soft serve ice cream in the helmet or the waffle cone any day.

A lot of high quality options are tucked away at Hrbek's or inside the Town Ball Tavern, but a couple have been moved exclusively into the Truly On Deck (formerly Metropolitan Club). I didn't list these even though some are certified good. Good options if you want to sit, you don't want to do the walk of shame and you have SRO tickets, though!




 

Since I've already stirred enough pots in regard to heated on the field debates, it's time to take it off the field to the stands! There have been a number of posts regarding the cost of food and drink at Target Field scaring away the fans, but I'm going to give a run down on many of the items and locations and whether you should eat or avoid!

First off, beer. If you fancy a pint at the game, there is an enormous selection of craft beers to pair with foods along with old-timey American style lagers perfect for a hot day at the park. I'm not going to list them all because... yeah, that's a lot. Location wise, the best concentration of craft options is right at Gate 34. Selections from Bent Paddle Cold Press Black Ale to Surly Furious and Goose Island Beer Hug IPAs and smooth sessionable Vienna (basically a red) style's like Schell's Firebrick are on tap here. If you're a Surly fan, right behind the left field bleachers and Gray Goose bar is a Surly stand with options you won't find elsewhere like Surly Hell. There are also "Minnesota Brews" stands around the stadium behind the Diamond Box areas where you can find a Grain Belt for nostalgia's sake. Other options are scattered around as well. The selection on the upper deck is much more limited to the usual suspects. My favorites: Bent Paddle Cold Press Black Ale (Gate 34), Beer Hug Hazy IPA (Gate 34), Surly Hell (behind Section 128) and Grain Belt (behind section 126).

Best Full Belly Deal at the Game:
Burger and fries basket. It's $15 at Hennepin Grill locations around the stadium, but the burger is big, tastes flame grilled and a solid enough choice. The fries are medium cut, crispy-ish outside, fluffy inside and taste rich like they've been fried in peanut oil. It's a good sized meal.
Senior Smokes: (105, 305) Barbacoa burrito. $10.50. It's not quite the gut stretcher the burger and fries is, but it's also only $10.50 in comparison to $15. It's a solid burrito near burrito specialty chain quality.

Best Budget Option: The hot dog or soft pretzel at various locations. They're $4.00 out the door and are enough to tide you over for a bit. Bring an empty water bottle in with you and get free water from various stations as well.

Best Burger(s):
Red Cow 60/40 Bacon (2) Sliders w/chips. $15.50 located behind section 126 Why the chips that nobody wants? I don't know. Anyway, the sliders themselves are Red Cow name worthy. They're absolutely excellent and pretty filling. Could use a little something vinegary like mustard or ketchup to break up the fatty flavor.
Blue Door Pub a 2nd place finish here goes to the $13.50 "Jucy Blusy" Cease and Desist Burger located at Gate 34 at the Jack Daniels Bar. It's very good and full sized, but the combo of thousand island and mayo is a bit sticky and bland.
Don't expect fast service for either of these burgers. There's always a line for the sliders (and they frequently run out for a bit of time at 126) and it seems like Jucy Blusy is cooked to order.

Best Sausages:
Kramarczuk's Bratwurst. $10 (behind field box 101, home plate box 112 and upstairs 312). It's a much better quality brat than the $8.50 standard option around the stadium. The polish is so greasy and salty (like polish sausage is) it makes for a real gut-bomb in my opinion.

Other Sandwich Options:
Turkey to Go sandwich $11 next to Hrbek's (114). Make sure you get one fresh made and they press the jerked turkey hard to get the juice out. Otherwise, you'll get a rather disgusting pile of slop bun. If made right, Turkey to Go is fantastic. Use the BBQ sauce if you want or skip it if you don't want it. Good either way. Side note, this is like the only station at the stadium which doesn't have an option to tip in the checkout app. What a bummer for the staff.
Philly Cheesesteak. $11. I think I stumbled across this one over behind section 110ish. Gross. Virtually inedible. While the grilled onions and peppers are very good and the cheese sauce is okay, the meat? (is it meat??) is like unseasoned sloppy joe mix or something. It's not right, best described as slop, and I didn't finish it. I like just about all food for the record.
Murray's Smoked Beef Sandwich (103). $15. Very high quality roast beef, but with no au juis and weak horseradish sauce, the sandwich is disappointingly bland. Skip it, this coming from a big fan of Murray's Restaurant.
Senior Smokes: $10.50 (105, 305) barbacoa beef burrito. Filling, maybe not quite as good as Chipotle, Pancheros and Qdoba, but certainly not far off. There are veggie options too, if you want. A far, far better deal than the nachos as this burrito will fill you up.
Tony O's Cubano: $13 (114). Gotta be honest here, a lot of people rant about this one, but it really didn't impress me compared to other options around the stadium. It's not that it's bad, it's just not that it was great. 
Unexpected Options:
Hot Indian (120): Chicken tikka (pronounced tick-a, not teek-a) masala. It's legitimately good and very mild + gluten free. They have some spicy sauce condiment which kicks 'er up a notch or two if you like. The cabbage veggie blend on the top is okay. Rice was a little undercooked, but all in all, I liked it. Note: I expect the chana masala will also be very good and it's vegan + gluten free. Haven't had Indian food before? Think a rich, thick, very savory and complex creamy tomato soup with tender chunks of chicken poured over rice and garnished with thin chopped cabbage here.

Side/Appetizer:
Cheese curds: $8 (109, 305). The portion is pretty good, but $8 still feels a little pricey. The curds are small sized, coated and deep fried mozzarella. They have good flavor, if not a bit salty. They're not truly as good as the ones you'll get at the State Fair as the batter used at Target Field is kinda meh, but they're still great if cheese is what you're craving.

Vegetarian?
Herbivorous Butcher Vegan Bratwurst (129). It's okay. You're not going to mistake it for the real deal and the aftertaste is decidedly veggie wheat thin flavor, but for the vegan/vegetarian folks, it's not bad.
Hot Indian (120): Chana masala... okay, I haven't had this dish yet, but when Indian is good, it's universally good and the tikka masala was solid here. 
What about dessert?:
Tiny Tim's Mini Donuts: (135) $6 for a bag. Excellent mini-donuts take my vote for the best sweet/dessert at the game. Cooked fresh, sprinkled hot with sugar, they're everything you hope for in mini donuts. Be aware, get them before the 7th inning, I've seen them run out more than once. I'd choose them over the expensive, and mediocre, soft serve ice cream in the helmet or the waffle cone any day.

A lot of high quality options are tucked away at Hrbek's or inside the Town Ball Tavern, but a couple have been moved exclusively into the Truly On Deck (formerly Metropolitan Club). I didn't list these even though some are certified good. Good options if you want to sit, you don't want to do the walk of shame and you have SRO tickets, though!




 

Since I've already stirred enough pots in regard to heated on the field debates, it's time to take it off the field to the stands! There have been a number of posts regarding the cost of food and drink at Target Field scaring away the fans, but I'm going to give a run down on many of the items and locations and whether you should eat or avoid!

First off, beer. If you fancy a pint at the game, there is an enormous selection of craft beers to pair with foods along with old-timey American style lagers perfect for a hot day at the park. I'm not going to list them all because... yeah, that's a lot. Location wise, the best concentration of craft options is right at Gate 34. Selections from Bent Paddle Cold Press Black Ale to Surly Furious and Goose Island Beer Hug IPAs and smooth sessionable Vienna (basically a red) style's like Schell's Firebrick are on tap here. If you're a Surly fan, right behind the left field bleachers and Gray Goose bar is a Surly stand with options you won't find elsewhere like Surly Hell. There are also "Minnesota Brews" stands around the stadium behind the Diamond Box areas where you can find a Grain Belt for nostalgia's sake. Other options are scattered around as well. The selection on the upper deck is much more limited to the usual suspects. My favorites: Bent Paddle Cold Press Black Ale (Gate 34), Beer Hug Hazy IPA (Gate 34), Surly Hell (behind Section 128) and Grain Belt (behind section 126).

Best Full Belly Deal at the Game:
Burger and fries basket. It's $15 at Hennepin Grill locations around the stadium, but the burger is big, tastes flame grilled and a solid enough choice. The fries are medium cut, crispy-ish outside, fluffy inside and taste rich like they've been fried in peanut oil. It's a good sized meal.
Senior Smokes: (105, 305) Barbacoa burrito. $10.50. It's not quite the gut stretcher the burger and fries is, but it's also only $10.50 in comparison to $15. It's a solid burrito near burrito specialty chain quality.

Best Budget Option: The hot dog or soft pretzel at various locations. They're $4.00 out the door and are enough to tide you over for a bit. Bring an empty water bottle in with you and get free water from various stations as well.

Best Burger(s):
Red Cow 60/40 Bacon (2) Sliders w/chips. $15.50 located behind section 126 Why the chips that nobody wants? I don't know. Anyway, the sliders themselves are Red Cow name worthy. They're absolutely excellent and pretty filling. Could use a little something vinegary like mustard or ketchup to break up the fatty flavor.
Blue Door Pub a 2nd place finish here goes to the $13.50 "Jucy Blusy" Cease and Desist Burger located at Gate 34 at the Jack Daniels Bar. It's very good and full sized, but the combo of thousand island and mayo is a bit sticky and bland.
Don't expect fast service for either of these burgers. There's always a line for the sliders (and they frequently run out for a bit of time at 126) and it seems like Jucy Blusy is cooked to order.

Best Sausages:
Kramarczuk's Bratwurst. $10 (behind field box 101, home plate box 112 and upstairs 312). It's a much better quality brat than the $8.50 standard option around the stadium. The polish is so greasy and salty (like polish sausage is) it makes for a real gut-bomb in my opinion.

Other Sandwich Options:
Turkey to Go sandwich $11 next to Hrbek's (114). Make sure you get one fresh made and they press the jerked turkey hard to get the juice out. Otherwise, you'll get a rather disgusting pile of slop bun. If made right, Turkey to Go is fantastic. Use the BBQ sauce if you want or skip it if you don't want it. Good either way. Side note, this is like the only station at the stadium which doesn't have an option to tip in the checkout app. What a bummer for the staff.
Philly Cheesesteak. $11. I think I stumbled across this one over behind section 110ish. Gross. Virtually inedible. While the grilled onions and peppers are very good and the cheese sauce is okay, the meat? (is it meat??) is like unseasoned sloppy joe mix or something. It's not right, best described as slop, and I didn't finish it. I like just about all food for the record.
Murray's Smoked Beef Sandwich (103). $15. Very high quality roast beef, but with no au juis and weak horseradish sauce, the sandwich is disappointingly bland. Skip it, this coming from a big fan of Murray's Restaurant.
Senior Smokes: $10.50 (105, 305) barbacoa beef burrito. Filling, maybe not quite as good as Chipotle, Pancheros and Qdoba, but certainly not far off. There are veggie options too, if you want. A far, far better deal than the nachos as this burrito will fill you up.
Tony O's Cubano: $13 (114). Gotta be honest here, a lot of people rant about this one, but it really didn't impress me compared to other options around the stadium. It's not that it's bad, it's just not that it was great. 
Unexpected Options:
Hot Indian (120): Chicken tikka (pronounced tick-a, not teek-a) masala. It's legitimately good and very mild + gluten free. They have some spicy sauce condiment which kicks 'er up a notch or two if you like. The cabbage veggie blend on the top is okay. Rice was a little undercooked, but all in all, I liked it. Note: I expect the chana masala will also be very good and it's vegan + gluten free. Haven't had Indian food before? Think a rich, thick, very savory and complex creamy tomato soup with tender chunks of chicken poured over rice and garnished with thin chopped cabbage here.

Side/Appetizer:
Cheese curds: $8 (109, 305). The portion is pretty good, but $8 still feels a little pricey. The curds are small sized, coated and deep fried mozzarella. They have good flavor, if not a bit salty. They're not truly as good as the ones you'll get at the State Fair as the batter used at Target Field is kinda meh, but they're still great if cheese is what you're craving.

Vegetarian?
Herbivorous Butcher Vegan Bratwurst (129). It's okay. You're not going to mistake it for the real deal and the aftertaste is decidedly veggie wheat thin flavor, but for the vegan/vegetarian folks, it's not bad.
Hot Indian (120): Chana masala... okay, I haven't had this dish yet, but when Indian is good, it's universally good and the tikka masala was solid here. 
What about dessert?:
Tiny Tim's Mini Donuts: (135) $6 for a bag. Excellent mini-donuts take my vote for the best sweet/dessert at the game. Cooked fresh, sprinkled hot with sugar, they're everything you hope for in mini donuts. Be aware, get them before the 7th inning, I've seen them run out more than once. I'd choose them over the expensive, and mediocre, soft serve ice cream in the helmet or the waffle cone any day.

A lot of high quality options are tucked away at Hrbek's or inside the Town Ball Tavern, but a couple have been moved exclusively into the Truly On Deck (formerly Metropolitan Club). I didn't list these even though some are certified good. Good options if you want to sit, you don't want to do the walk of shame and you have SRO tickets, though!




 

Since I've already stirred enough pots in regard to heated on the field debates, it's time to take it off the field to the stands! There have been a number of posts regarding the cost of food and drink at Target Field scaring away the fans, but I'm going to give a run down on many of the items and locations and whether you should eat or avoid!

First off, beer. If you fancy a pint at the game, there is an enormous selection of craft beers to pair with foods along with old-timey American style lagers perfect for a hot day at the park. I'm not going to list them all because... yeah, that's a lot. Location wise, the best concentration of craft options is right at Gate 34. Selections from Bent Paddle Cold Press Black Ale to Surly Furious and Goose Island Beer Hug IPAs and smooth sessionable Vienna (basically a red) style's like Schell's Firebrick are on tap here. If you're a Surly fan, right behind the left field bleachers and Gray Goose bar is a Surly stand with options you won't find elsewhere like Surly Hell. There are also "Minnesota Brews" stands around the stadium behind the Diamond Box areas where you can find a Grain Belt for nostalgia's sake. Other options are scattered around as well. The selection on the upper deck is much more limited to the usual suspects. My favorites: Bent Paddle Cold Press Black Ale (Gate 34), Beer Hug Hazy IPA (Gate 34), Surly Hell (behind Section 128) and Grain Belt (behind section 126).

Best Full Belly Deal at the Game:
Burger and fries basket. It's $15 at Hennepin Grill locations around the stadium, but the burger is big, tastes flame grilled and a solid enough choice. The fries are medium cut, crispy-ish outside, fluffy inside and taste rich like they've been fried in peanut oil. It's a good sized meal.
Senior Smokes: (105, 305) Barbacoa burrito. $10.50. It's not quite the gut stretcher the burger and fries is, but it's also only $10.50 in comparison to $15. It's a solid burrito near burrito specialty chain quality.

Best Budget Option: The hot dog or soft pretzel at various locations. They're $4.00 out the door and are enough to tide you over for a bit. Bring an empty water bottle in with you and get free water from various stations as well.

Best Burger(s):
Red Cow 60/40 Bacon (2) Sliders w/chips. $15.50 located behind section 126 Why the chips that nobody wants? I don't know. Anyway, the sliders themselves are Red Cow name worthy. They're absolutely excellent and pretty filling. Could use a little something vinegary like mustard or ketchup to break up the fatty flavor.
Blue Door Pub a 2nd place finish here goes to the $13.50 "Jucy Blusy" Cease and Desist Burger located at Gate 34 at the Jack Daniels Bar. It's very good and full sized, but the combo of thousand island and mayo is a bit sticky and bland.
Don't expect fast service for either of these burgers. There's always a line for the sliders (and they frequently run out for a bit of time at 126) and it seems like Jucy Blusy is cooked to order.

Best Sausages:
Kramarczuk's Bratwurst. $10 (behind field box 101, home plate box 112 and upstairs 312). It's a much better quality brat than the $8.50 standard option around the stadium. The polish is so greasy and salty (like polish sausage is) it makes for a real gut-bomb in my opinion.

Other Sandwich Options:
Turkey to Go sandwich $11 next to Hrbek's (114). Make sure you get one fresh made and they press the jerked turkey hard to get the juice out. Otherwise, you'll get a rather disgusting pile of slop bun. If made right, Turkey to Go is fantastic. Use the BBQ sauce if you want or skip it if you don't want it. Good either way. Side note, this is like the only station at the stadium which doesn't have an option to tip in the checkout app. What a bummer for the staff.
Philly Cheesesteak. $11. I think I stumbled across this one over behind section 110ish. Gross. Virtually inedible. While the grilled onions and peppers are very good and the cheese sauce is okay, the meat? (is it meat??) is like unseasoned sloppy joe mix or something. It's not right, best described as slop, and I didn't finish it. I like just about all food for the record.
Murray's Smoked Beef Sandwich (103). $15. Very high quality roast beef, but with no au juis and weak horseradish sauce, the sandwich is disappointingly bland. Skip it, this coming from a big fan of Murray's Restaurant.
Senior Smokes: $10.50 (105, 305) barbacoa beef burrito. Filling, maybe not quite as good as Chipotle, Pancheros and Qdoba, but certainly not far off. There are veggie options too, if you want. A far, far better deal than the nachos as this burrito will fill you up.
Tony O's Cubano: $13 (114). Gotta be honest here, a lot of people rant about this one, but it really didn't impress me compared to other options around the stadium. It's not that it's bad, it's just not that it was great. 
Unexpected Options:
Hot Indian (120): Chicken tikka (pronounced tick-a, not teek-a) masala. It's legitimately good and very mild + gluten free. They have some spicy sauce condiment which kicks 'er up a notch or two if you like. The cabbage veggie blend on the top is okay. Rice was a little undercooked, but all in all, I liked it. Note: I expect the chana masala will also be very good and it's vegan + gluten free. Haven't had Indian food before? Think a rich, thick, very savory and complex creamy tomato soup with tender chunks of chicken poured over rice and garnished with thin chopped cabbage here.

Side/Appetizer:
Cheese curds: $8 (109, 305). The portion is pretty good, but $8 still feels a little pricey. The curds are small sized, coated and deep fried mozzarella. They have good flavor, if not a bit salty. They're not truly as good as the ones you'll get at the State Fair as the batter used at Target Field is kinda meh, but they're still great if cheese is what you're craving.

Vegetarian?
Herbivorous Butcher Vegan Bratwurst (129). It's okay. You're not going to mistake it for the real deal and the aftertaste is decidedly veggie wheat thin flavor, but for the vegan/vegetarian folks, it's not bad.
Hot Indian (120): Chana masala... okay, I haven't had this dish yet, but when Indian is good, it's universally good and the tikka masala was solid here. 
What about dessert?:
Tiny Tim's Mini Donuts: (135) $6 for a bag. Excellent mini-donuts take my vote for the best sweet/dessert at the game. Cooked fresh, sprinkled hot with sugar, they're everything you hope for in mini donuts. Be aware, get them before the 7th inning, I've seen them run out more than once. I'd choose them over the expensive, and mediocre, soft serve ice cream in the helmet or the waffle cone any day.

A lot of high quality options are tucked away at Hrbek's or inside the Town Ball Tavern, but a couple have been moved exclusively into the Truly On Deck (formerly Metropolitan Club). I didn't list these even though some are certified good. Good options if you want to sit, you don't want to do the walk of shame and you have SRO tickets, though!




 

Since I've already stirred enough pots in regard to heated on the field debates, it's time to take it off the field to the stands! There have been a number of posts regarding the cost of food and drink at Target Field scaring away the fans, but I'm going to give a run down on many of the items and locations and whether you should eat or avoid!

First off, beer. If you fancy a pint at the game, there is an enormous selection of craft beers to pair with foods along with old-timey American style lagers perfect for a hot day at the park. I'm not going to list them all because... yeah, that's a lot. Location wise, the best concentration of craft options is right at Gate 34. Selections from Bent Paddle Cold Press Black Ale to Surly Furious and Goose Island Beer Hug IPAs and smooth sessionable Vienna (basically a red) style's like Schell's Firebrick are on tap here. If you're a Surly fan, right behind the left field bleachers and Gray Goose bar is a Surly stand with options you won't find elsewhere like Surly Hell. There are also "Minnesota Brews" stands around the stadium behind the Diamond Box areas where you can find a Grain Belt for nostalgia's sake. Other options are scattered around as well. The selection on the upper deck is much more limited to the usual suspects. My favorites: Bent Paddle Cold Press Black Ale (Gate 34), Beer Hug Hazy IPA (Gate 34), Surly Hell (behind Section 128) and Grain Belt (behind section 126).

Best Full Belly Deal at the Game:
Burger and fries basket. It's $15 at Hennepin Grill locations around the stadium, but the burger is big, tastes flame grilled and a solid enough choice. The fries are medium cut, crispy-ish outside, fluffy inside and taste rich like they've been fried in peanut oil. It's a good sized meal.
Senior Smokes: (105, 305) Barbacoa burrito. $10.50. It's not quite the gut stretcher the burger and fries is, but it's also only $10.50 in comparison to $15. It's a solid burrito near burrito specialty chain quality.

Best Budget Option: The hot dog or soft pretzel at various locations. They're $4.00 out the door and are enough to tide you over for a bit. Bring an empty water bottle in with you and get free water from various stations as well.

Best Burger(s):
Red Cow 60/40 Bacon (2) Sliders w/chips. $15.50 located behind section 126 Why the chips that nobody wants? I don't know. Anyway, the sliders themselves are Red Cow name worthy. They're absolutely excellent and pretty filling. Could use a little something vinegary like mustard or ketchup to break up the fatty flavor.
Blue Door Pub a 2nd place finish here goes to the $13.50 "Jucy Blusy" Cease and Desist Burger located at Gate 34 at the Jack Daniels Bar. It's very good and full sized, but the combo of thousand island and mayo is a bit sticky and bland.
Don't expect fast service for either of these burgers. There's always a line for the sliders (and they frequently run out for a bit of time at 126) and it seems like Jucy Blusy is cooked to order.

Best Sausages:
Kramarczuk's Bratwurst. $10 (behind field box 101, home plate box 112 and upstairs 312). It's a much better quality brat than the $8.50 standard option around the stadium. The polish is so greasy and salty (like polish sausage is) it makes for a real gut-bomb in my opinion.

Other Sandwich Options:
Turkey to Go sandwich $11 next to Hrbek's (114). Make sure you get one fresh made and they press the jerked turkey hard to get the juice out. Otherwise, you'll get a rather disgusting pile of slop bun. If made right, Turkey to Go is fantastic. Use the BBQ sauce if you want or skip it if you don't want it. Good either way. Side note, this is like the only station at the stadium which doesn't have an option to tip in the checkout app. What a bummer for the staff.
Philly Cheesesteak. $11. I think I stumbled across this one over behind section 110ish. Gross. Virtually inedible. While the grilled onions and peppers are very good and the cheese sauce is okay, the meat? (is it meat??) is like unseasoned sloppy joe mix or something. It's not right, best described as slop, and I didn't finish it. I like just about all food for the record.
Murray's Smoked Beef Sandwich (103). $15. Very high quality roast beef, but with no au juis and weak horseradish sauce, the sandwich is disappointingly bland. Skip it, this coming from a big fan of Murray's Restaurant.
Senior Smokes: $10.50 (105, 305) barbacoa beef burrito. Filling, maybe not quite as good as Chipotle, Pancheros and Qdoba, but certainly not far off. There are veggie options too, if you want. A far, far better deal than the nachos as this burrito will fill you up.
Tony O's Cubano: $13 (114). Gotta be honest here, a lot of people rant about this one, but it really didn't impress me compared to other options around the stadium. It's not that it's bad, it's just not that it was great. 
Unexpected Options:
Hot Indian (120): Chicken tikka (pronounced tick-a, not teek-a) masala. It's legitimately good and very mild + gluten free. They have some spicy sauce condiment which kicks 'er up a notch or two if you like. The cabbage veggie blend on the top is okay. Rice was a little undercooked, but all in all, I liked it. Note: I expect the chana masala will also be very good and it's vegan + gluten free. Haven't had Indian food before? Think a rich, thick, very savory and complex creamy tomato soup with tender chunks of chicken poured over rice and garnished with thin chopped cabbage here.

Side/Appetizer:
Cheese curds: $8 (109, 305). The portion is pretty good, but $8 still feels a little pricey. The curds are small sized, coated and deep fried mozzarella. They have good flavor, if not a bit salty. They're not truly as good as the ones you'll get at the State Fair as the batter used at Target Field is kinda meh, but they're still great if cheese is what you're craving.

Vegetarian?
Herbivorous Butcher Vegan Bratwurst (129). It's okay. You're not going to mistake it for the real deal and the aftertaste is decidedly veggie wheat thin flavor, but for the vegan/vegetarian folks, it's not bad.
Hot Indian (120): Chana masala... okay, I haven't had this dish yet, but when Indian is good, it's universally good and the tikka masala was solid here. 
What about dessert?:
Tiny Tim's Mini Donuts: (135) $6 for a bag. Excellent mini-donuts take my vote for the best sweet/dessert at the game. Cooked fresh, sprinkled hot with sugar, they're everything you hope for in mini donuts. Be aware, get them before the 7th inning, I've seen them run out more than once. I'd choose them over the expensive, and mediocre, soft serve ice cream in the helmet or the waffle cone any day.

A lot of high quality options are tucked away at Hrbek's or inside the Town Ball Tavern, but a couple have been moved exclusively into the Truly On Deck (formerly Metropolitan Club). I didn't list these even though some are certified good. Good options if you want to sit, you don't want to do the walk of shame and you have SRO tickets, though!




 

Towards the end of last year, I decided to evaluate Falvey's draft record at the time. As I noted, it was a work in progress and there has been quite a bit of shifting around this year. I postulated this year would be a critical year for Falvey's future with the Twins as fans, and I'm sure owners, were waiting with bated breath for the pitchers of the future to arrive and the high round draft choices to prove their mettle, advance through the system, and prove the front office's methodology.
To paraphrase my previous blog:
Falvey has shown a tendency to draft one tool (power) position players in the high rounds and they weren't particularly successful. eg. Sabato, Wallner, Rooker and he's had very little success in early round pitchers developing and moving up through the system.

Methodology:
Link to previous blog:
 
So how have things graded out this year? There's definitely been a fair bit of movement and some of the players are no longer in the organization. Rooker was traded to San Diego as part of the Rogers deal and Petty was moved to the Reds for Sonny Gray. Landon Leach was released by Ft. Myers and signed by the Braves' organization.
 
2017 Player Grade MLB Draft # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Level Last Perf. Promo Spd Projection 1st Royce Lewis B 5 1 1-30 (Rnd1) On Par High School 22 MLB A C B CBA Brent Rooker* D 50 35 31-36 (CBA) Aggressive College 27 AAA A F C 2nd Landon Leach* D 101 37 37-67 (Rnd2) Reach College 22 A- D F D 3rd Blayne Enlow D 29 76 76-105 (Rnd3) Steal High School 23 AA F D D 2018 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Level Last Perform Promo Spd Projection 1st Trevor Larnach B 26 20 1-30 (Rnd1) On Par College 25 MLB B B B 2nd Ryan Jeffers C >200 59 44-78 (Rnd2) Huge Reach College 24 MLB D A D 3rd Forfeit for Lynn 1yr N/A         N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2019 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Age Level Last Perform Promo Spd Projection 1st Keoni Cavaco F 28 13 1-30 (Rnd1) Aggressive High School 21 A- C F F CBA Matt Wallner B 60 39 31-41 (CBA) Aggressive College 24 AA B C C 2nd Matt Canterino C 46 54 42-69 (Rnd2) On Par College 24 AA C C D CBB Forefeit (to trade Hughes) F       Total Failure N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3rd Spencer Steer A >200 90 79-107 (Rnd3) Huge Reach College 24 AAA A C B 2020 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Age Level Last Perform Promo Spd Projection 1st Aaron Sabato D 41 27 1-29 (Rnd1) Reach College 23 A+ D D F 2nd Alerick Soularie D 105 59 38-60 (Rnd2) Huge Reach College 22 A+ D C F CBB Forefit in Maeda Trade N/A         N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3rd Forefit for Donaldson N/A         N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2021 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Age Level Last Perform Promo Spd Projection 1st Chase Petty* A 27 26 1-29 (Rnd1) On Par High School 19 A- B A B CBA Noah Miller B 62 36 31-36 (CBA) Aggressive High School 19 A- B A C 2nd Steve Hajjar C 100 61 37-63 (Rnd2) Reach College 21 A- B C C 3rd Cade Povich A >250 98 72-101 (Rnd3) Huge Reach College 22 A+ A A B Upward movers:
Royce Lewis - C to B. While Lewis' performance blew away all expectations and was well worthy of an A grade here, it feels like there's been confirmation he's the next Buxton in regard to injuries. Lewis' injury history is no longer something which can be attributed solely to luck and the expectations on how much value he can add to a team should be significantly tempered as a result.

Landon Leach - F to D. Atlanta's coaches have clearly done something here. Leach's K rate is about the same, but his walk rate has absolutely plummeted. Leach has turned in mostly solid starts this year for Atlanta's low A team with a couple clunkers disguising how effective Leach has actually been. This is a positive for Falvey's draft, but a potential big negative for the development team. Based on his age and experience in the MiLB system, Leach's results this year 4.04 ERA, 4.29 xFIP are hardly worth praise, but the absolutely massive leap forward is worth not completely writing him off. 

Trevor Larnach - C to B. Larnach's struggles to hit basically anything other than a 4-seam fastball resulted in his performance, and my expectations, dropping like a stone. This year, Larnach started off fairly hot again and his wRC+ of 114 is sustainable for a bat first corner outfielder now that he's picked up a little extra speed as well. I'm going to ignore his huge slump over the last month, and especially last couple of weeks and hope it's luck related rather than a repeat of last season.

Matt Wallner - D to B. Wallner didn't impress me last year. As a 23 year old college hitter in an A+ league with only a power tool offset by poor plate discipline, I wasn't confident in his ability to take his game up the ladder. Wallner performed well in the Arizona Fall League, but I give almost zero value to performances in the AFL so coming into this year, I didn't expect a change. That said, Wallner has raked in AA, and now we're getting somewhere. Now age 24 and the mulligan of 2020's lost season fading, Wallner has delivered at the plate and significantly improved his game as well. Wallner's walk rate has jumped from a weak 9.5% (for a high K rate power hitter) to an impressive 17.1%. That's night and day. That's projectable. His OBP has also skyrocketed 54pts to .404 in a much, much harder league this year. Want more good news? He's only gotten better as the season has marched on. Since May 1, Wallner's OPS has been 1.026. His BB rate has increased slightly to 17.5% and even better, his K rate has declined a bit to 31.6% over that span. While the BABIP might have a bit to do with his .304 average, his performance isn't all HRs. Wallner has more 2B's than HR's since the beginning of May as well. Consider me much more interested in this guy's future.

Spencer Steer - C to A. Scouting reports on Steer's defense were clear he wasn't going to be a shortstop and an unimpressive season at the plate in AA last year after raking in A+ ball led me to drop expectations. Steer's walk rate dropped by over 50% and his strikeout rate nearly doubled from A+ to AA while his OPS dropped from .911 to .774. OOffffda. Lots of players cannot make the transition from low minors to the high minors. A+ to AA is the biggest step in baseball competition level, in my opinion. Steer has reclaimed a bit of walk rate, dropped the strikeouts quite a bit and crushed the baseball, earning a promotion to AAA where he continues to rake. While his BB rate is too low for a power hitter (9%-ish), it does seem like "power hitter" is an apt term for Steer. It's possible Steer can make the transition to being a quality MLB player. As a 3rd rounder, that's an A.
Noah Miller - C to B. Miller's performance last year was fine. He didn't light the world on fire in rookie ball with little pop .238/.316/.369 wRC+ 85, but as an 18 year old high school draft pick, even holding his own against professional players half way through their season and playing for a couple weeks was good enough. Miller's scouting reports show tough to grade potential with mediocre athleticism for a middle infielder, but he's credited with a high baseball IQ and good instincts which would offset it. That may be best evidenced by Miller stealing 13/15 on the basepaths this year. Miller focused on building core strength this offseason, but no power improvements are to be seen yet. That said, Miller's plate discipline has taken a major step forward with his promotion to A- league ball and that's kept him performing at the plate despite being utterly pop-less this year. Miller's .239/.378/.325 is good for a wRC+ of 114 in the low offense league. This is Miller's first full season of professional baseball and his excellent fielding percentage of .988 at shortstop practically brings a tear to my eye after watching seemingly every Twins SS prospect for the past decade boot baseballs like like they were playing soccer out there... If Miller can develop a little more pop or pick that average up, we could have a legitimate shortstop in the making.

Cade Povich - D to A. Povich hadn't pitched at all last year at the time of my grading, and considering he was a college signing who I classified as a huge reach, I graded it harshly. Povich has acquitted Falvey's draft strategy greatly this year. With a 12.8 K/9 and an acceptable 3.2 BB/9, Povich has put up a 3.38 ERA in not Low-A, but High-A. Povich saw 2 innings in Rookie ball and then only 8 innings in Ft. Myers last year and the Twins started him off in Cedar Rapids this year. Povich's 3.28 xFIP looks good and seems reasonable based on the 1.13 WHIP. Povich hasn't shown a huge Achilles heel like a lot of pitchers who struggle with walks or give up a ton of hits. At age 22 in A+ ball, it's not like a 3.38 ERA screams "ace" pitcher, but given the experience level and promotion rate, it's a good sign of him being able to hold his own up the ladder and Povich was a 3rd rounder.

Now for the fallers:

Brent Rooker - C to D. Rooker was moved this offseason in the Rogers' trade and it's hard to give him a dropping grade considering he's OPS'ing .999 in AAA for San Diego, but... he's in AAA. As a 2017 first rounder, that's not acceptable. Rooker's strikeout rate clearly has the Padres looking at him as a AAAA talent or he'd have seen action by now. It's ironic, San Diego had a need for Rooker's services earlier this year... just as he was hurt. Rooker did get the callup on the 13th for a double-header game, but didn't play and was sent right back to AAA. The advanced metrics on Rooker last year painted him as unlucky and worth some time, but it seems neither the Padres or Twins' coaches have been impressed with what they saw in person.

Blayne Enlow - C to D. Enlow finally returned to pitching after losing the vast majority of 2020-2021 to the COVID shutdown and a UCL tear. The Twins decided to protect Enlow from the Rule 5 draft this year, but Enlow's demonstrated poor control with a 4.9 BB/9 rate and he's been very hittable with an 8.9 H/9. Poor control is typical for younger pitchers when returning from TJ, and to Enlow's credit, he has returned quickly. That said, nothing about Enlow's true performance in the minors up until now has warranted excitement and there's no part of his game which is truly impressive this year. Scouting reports are great, but performance has to be there and Enlow needs to start producing. It's actually pretty concerning that Enlow walked nobody in his first two starts... and 11 batters in his last 12.2 IP.

Ryan Jeffers - B to C. Jeffers got the thumbs up for a B-grade despite having a rough year at the plate last year. After all, he still had the potential to be a career starting catcher and that's very valuable. Jeffers struggles at the plate have continued this year and the SSS factor is quickly evaporating. Now, it's not like Jeffers has been John Ryan Murphy at the plate as Jeffers continues to hit well enough to justify being a backup catcher, but Jeffers' bat is decidedly below MLB average and his mediocre defense isn't going to offset his weak plate performance enough to be a starter. Projecting Jeffers as more than a career backup doesn't feel likely to me.

Matt Canterino - B to C. Canterino may have already pitched more innings in AA this year than he was able to pitch all last year in Low/High A, and Canterino may own a sparkly 1.83 ERA, but the performance is an illusion. With an ugly 5.77 BB/9, helpful .225 BABIP and an absurdly low 0.26 HR/9 thanks to the 2.6% HR/FB rate, the 4.78 xFIP tells a very different story. Beyond the expected performance, there's no way an uninjured pitcher with a 5+ BB/9 rate in the minors can be effective in MLB. Canterino is also closer to his 25th birthday than his 24th at this point. Still some time to turn it around, but this year has been deflating for fans. 

Aaron Sabato - C to D. The leash on Sabato's lack of performance has ended. After an uninspiring performance in Low A last year, Sabato was promoted to Cedar Rapids and he responded with a home run derby performance to put his stock back on track. Repeating A+ ball this year, Sabato has failed to repeat his home run fueled explosion last year. All that remains is the pedestrian 13.7% walk rate for a 23 year old college power hitter repeating a season in the low minors to go along with the 33% K rate. Sabato's power hasn't been on display this season, managing an ISO of just .174, and that won't get it done with a .214 batting average. Sabato still sports a wRC+ of 107 in the A+ league, but for poor defensive 1B/DH, who was drafted in the first round, that's not going to cut it. Sabato really doesn't look like he's MLB caliber.

All in all, Falvey's grade jumps from a 1.67 (C-) to a 2.00 solid C. There were enough upward movers to more than offset the scufflers. The 2021 draft class still looks like it may be Falvey's best with a lot of solid performers, but it's way too early to tell... also, we traded away the best of the prospects in that class with Chase Petty in the Reds' system now where he's pitching very well in Low-A.

Towards the end of last year, I decided to evaluate Falvey's draft record at the time. As I noted, it was a work in progress and there has been quite a bit of shifting around this year. I postulated this year would be a critical year for Falvey's future with the Twins as fans, and I'm sure owners, were waiting with bated breath for the pitchers of the future to arrive and the high round draft choices to prove their mettle, advance through the system, and prove the front office's methodology.
To paraphrase my previous blog:
Falvey has shown a tendency to draft one tool (power) position players in the high rounds and they weren't particularly successful. eg. Sabato, Wallner, Rooker and he's had very little success in early round pitchers developing and moving up through the system.

Methodology:
Link to previous blog:
 
So how have things graded out this year? There's definitely been a fair bit of movement and some of the players are no longer in the organization. Rooker was traded to San Diego as part of the Rogers deal and Petty was moved to the Reds for Sonny Gray. Landon Leach was released by Ft. Myers and signed by the Braves' organization.
 
2017 Player Grade MLB Draft # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Level Last Perf. Promo Spd Projection 1st Royce Lewis B 5 1 1-30 (Rnd1) On Par High School 22 MLB A C B CBA Brent Rooker* D 50 35 31-36 (CBA) Aggressive College 27 AAA A F C 2nd Landon Leach* D 101 37 37-67 (Rnd2) Reach College 22 A- D F D 3rd Blayne Enlow D 29 76 76-105 (Rnd3) Steal High School 23 AA F D D 2018 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Level Last Perform Promo Spd Projection 1st Trevor Larnach B 26 20 1-30 (Rnd1) On Par College 25 MLB B B B 2nd Ryan Jeffers C >200 59 44-78 (Rnd2) Huge Reach College 24 MLB D A D 3rd Forfeit for Lynn 1yr N/A         N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2019 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Age Level Last Perform Promo Spd Projection 1st Keoni Cavaco F 28 13 1-30 (Rnd1) Aggressive High School 21 A- C F F CBA Matt Wallner B 60 39 31-41 (CBA) Aggressive College 24 AA B C C 2nd Matt Canterino C 46 54 42-69 (Rnd2) On Par College 24 AA C C D CBB Forefeit (to trade Hughes) F       Total Failure N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3rd Spencer Steer A >200 90 79-107 (Rnd3) Huge Reach College 24 AAA A C B 2020 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Age Level Last Perform Promo Spd Projection 1st Aaron Sabato D 41 27 1-29 (Rnd1) Reach College 23 A+ D D F 2nd Alerick Soularie D 105 59 38-60 (Rnd2) Huge Reach College 22 A+ D C F CBB Forefit in Maeda Trade N/A         N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3rd Forefit for Donaldson N/A         N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2021 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Age Level Last Perform Promo Spd Projection 1st Chase Petty* A 27 26 1-29 (Rnd1) On Par High School 19 A- B A B CBA Noah Miller B 62 36 31-36 (CBA) Aggressive High School 19 A- B A C 2nd Steve Hajjar C 100 61 37-63 (Rnd2) Reach College 21 A- B C C 3rd Cade Povich A >250 98 72-101 (Rnd3) Huge Reach College 22 A+ A A B Upward movers:
Royce Lewis - C to B. While Lewis' performance blew away all expectations and was well worthy of an A grade here, it feels like there's been confirmation he's the next Buxton in regard to injuries. Lewis' injury history is no longer something which can be attributed solely to luck and the expectations on how much value he can add to a team should be significantly tempered as a result.

Landon Leach - F to D. Atlanta's coaches have clearly done something here. Leach's K rate is about the same, but his walk rate has absolutely plummeted. Leach has turned in mostly solid starts this year for Atlanta's low A team with a couple clunkers disguising how effective Leach has actually been. This is a positive for Falvey's draft, but a potential big negative for the development team. Based on his age and experience in the MiLB system, Leach's results this year 4.04 ERA, 4.29 xFIP are hardly worth praise, but the absolutely massive leap forward is worth not completely writing him off. 

Trevor Larnach - C to B. Larnach's struggles to hit basically anything other than a 4-seam fastball resulted in his performance, and my expectations, dropping like a stone. This year, Larnach started off fairly hot again and his wRC+ of 114 is sustainable for a bat first corner outfielder now that he's picked up a little extra speed as well. I'm going to ignore his huge slump over the last month, and especially last couple of weeks and hope it's luck related rather than a repeat of last season.

Matt Wallner - D to B. Wallner didn't impress me last year. As a 23 year old college hitter in an A+ league with only a power tool offset by poor plate discipline, I wasn't confident in his ability to take his game up the ladder. Wallner performed well in the Arizona Fall League, but I give almost zero value to performances in the AFL so coming into this year, I didn't expect a change. That said, Wallner has raked in AA, and now we're getting somewhere. Now age 24 and the mulligan of 2020's lost season fading, Wallner has delivered at the plate and significantly improved his game as well. Wallner's walk rate has jumped from a weak 9.5% (for a high K rate power hitter) to an impressive 17.1%. That's night and day. That's projectable. His OBP has also skyrocketed 54pts to .404 in a much, much harder league this year. Want more good news? He's only gotten better as the season has marched on. Since May 1, Wallner's OPS has been 1.026. His BB rate has increased slightly to 17.5% and even better, his K rate has declined a bit to 31.6% over that span. While the BABIP might have a bit to do with his .304 average, his performance isn't all HRs. Wallner has more 2B's than HR's since the beginning of May as well. Consider me much more interested in this guy's future.

Spencer Steer - C to A. Scouting reports on Steer's defense were clear he wasn't going to be a shortstop and an unimpressive season at the plate in AA last year after raking in A+ ball led me to drop expectations. Steer's walk rate dropped by over 50% and his strikeout rate nearly doubled from A+ to AA while his OPS dropped from .911 to .774. OOffffda. Lots of players cannot make the transition from low minors to the high minors. A+ to AA is the biggest step in baseball competition level, in my opinion. Steer has reclaimed a bit of walk rate, dropped the strikeouts quite a bit and crushed the baseball, earning a promotion to AAA where he continues to rake. While his BB rate is too low for a power hitter (9%-ish), it does seem like "power hitter" is an apt term for Steer. It's possible Steer can make the transition to being a quality MLB player. As a 3rd rounder, that's an A.
Noah Miller - C to B. Miller's performance last year was fine. He didn't light the world on fire in rookie ball with little pop .238/.316/.369 wRC+ 85, but as an 18 year old high school draft pick, even holding his own against professional players half way through their season and playing for a couple weeks was good enough. Miller's scouting reports show tough to grade potential with mediocre athleticism for a middle infielder, but he's credited with a high baseball IQ and good instincts which would offset it. That may be best evidenced by Miller stealing 13/15 on the basepaths this year. Miller focused on building core strength this offseason, but no power improvements are to be seen yet. That said, Miller's plate discipline has taken a major step forward with his promotion to A- league ball and that's kept him performing at the plate despite being utterly pop-less this year. Miller's .239/.378/.325 is good for a wRC+ of 114 in the low offense league. This is Miller's first full season of professional baseball and his excellent fielding percentage of .988 at shortstop practically brings a tear to my eye after watching seemingly every Twins SS prospect for the past decade boot baseballs like like they were playing soccer out there... If Miller can develop a little more pop or pick that average up, we could have a legitimate shortstop in the making.

Cade Povich - D to A. Povich hadn't pitched at all last year at the time of my grading, and considering he was a college signing who I classified as a huge reach, I graded it harshly. Povich has acquitted Falvey's draft strategy greatly this year. With a 12.8 K/9 and an acceptable 3.2 BB/9, Povich has put up a 3.38 ERA in not Low-A, but High-A. Povich saw 2 innings in Rookie ball and then only 8 innings in Ft. Myers last year and the Twins started him off in Cedar Rapids this year. Povich's 3.28 xFIP looks good and seems reasonable based on the 1.13 WHIP. Povich hasn't shown a huge Achilles heel like a lot of pitchers who struggle with walks or give up a ton of hits. At age 22 in A+ ball, it's not like a 3.38 ERA screams "ace" pitcher, but given the experience level and promotion rate, it's a good sign of him being able to hold his own up the ladder and Povich was a 3rd rounder.

Now for the fallers:

Brent Rooker - C to D. Rooker was moved this offseason in the Rogers' trade and it's hard to give him a dropping grade considering he's OPS'ing .999 in AAA for San Diego, but... he's in AAA. As a 2017 first rounder, that's not acceptable. Rooker's strikeout rate clearly has the Padres looking at him as a AAAA talent or he'd have seen action by now. It's ironic, San Diego had a need for Rooker's services earlier this year... just as he was hurt. Rooker did get the callup on the 13th for a double-header game, but didn't play and was sent right back to AAA. The advanced metrics on Rooker last year painted him as unlucky and worth some time, but it seems neither the Padres or Twins' coaches have been impressed with what they saw in person.

Blayne Enlow - C to D. Enlow finally returned to pitching after losing the vast majority of 2020-2021 to the COVID shutdown and a UCL tear. The Twins decided to protect Enlow from the Rule 5 draft this year, but Enlow's demonstrated poor control with a 4.9 BB/9 rate and he's been very hittable with an 8.9 H/9. Poor control is typical for younger pitchers when returning from TJ, and to Enlow's credit, he has returned quickly. That said, nothing about Enlow's true performance in the minors up until now has warranted excitement and there's no part of his game which is truly impressive this year. Scouting reports are great, but performance has to be there and Enlow needs to start producing. It's actually pretty concerning that Enlow walked nobody in his first two starts... and 11 batters in his last 12.2 IP.

Ryan Jeffers - B to C. Jeffers got the thumbs up for a B-grade despite having a rough year at the plate last year. After all, he still had the potential to be a career starting catcher and that's very valuable. Jeffers struggles at the plate have continued this year and the SSS factor is quickly evaporating. Now, it's not like Jeffers has been John Ryan Murphy at the plate as Jeffers continues to hit well enough to justify being a backup catcher, but Jeffers' bat is decidedly below MLB average and his mediocre defense isn't going to offset his weak plate performance enough to be a starter. Projecting Jeffers as more than a career backup doesn't feel likely to me.

Matt Canterino - B to C. Canterino may have already pitched more innings in AA this year than he was able to pitch all last year in Low/High A, and Canterino may own a sparkly 1.83 ERA, but the performance is an illusion. With an ugly 5.77 BB/9, helpful .225 BABIP and an absurdly low 0.26 HR/9 thanks to the 2.6% HR/FB rate, the 4.78 xFIP tells a very different story. Beyond the expected performance, there's no way an uninjured pitcher with a 5+ BB/9 rate in the minors can be effective in MLB. Canterino is also closer to his 25th birthday than his 24th at this point. Still some time to turn it around, but this year has been deflating for fans. 

Aaron Sabato - C to D. The leash on Sabato's lack of performance has ended. After an uninspiring performance in Low A last year, Sabato was promoted to Cedar Rapids and he responded with a home run derby performance to put his stock back on track. Repeating A+ ball this year, Sabato has failed to repeat his home run fueled explosion last year. All that remains is the pedestrian 13.7% walk rate for a 23 year old college power hitter repeating a season in the low minors to go along with the 33% K rate. Sabato's power hasn't been on display this season, managing an ISO of just .174, and that won't get it done with a .214 batting average. Sabato still sports a wRC+ of 107 in the A+ league, but for poor defensive 1B/DH, who was drafted in the first round, that's not going to cut it. Sabato really doesn't look like he's MLB caliber.

All in all, Falvey's grade jumps from a 1.67 (C-) to a 2.00 solid C. There were enough upward movers to more than offset the scufflers. The 2021 draft class still looks like it may be Falvey's best with a lot of solid performers, but it's way too early to tell... also, we traded away the best of the prospects in that class with Chase Petty in the Reds' system now where he's pitching very well in Low-A.

Towards the end of last year, I decided to evaluate Falvey's draft record at the time. As I noted, it was a work in progress and there has been quite a bit of shifting around this year. I postulated this year would be a critical year for Falvey's future with the Twins as fans, and I'm sure owners, were waiting with bated breath for the pitchers of the future to arrive and the high round draft choices to prove their mettle, advance through the system, and prove the front office's methodology.
To paraphrase my previous blog:
Falvey has shown a tendency to draft one tool (power) position players in the high rounds and they weren't particularly successful. eg. Sabato, Wallner, Rooker and he's had very little success in early round pitchers developing and moving up through the system.

Methodology:
Link to previous blog:
 
So how have things graded out this year? There's definitely been a fair bit of movement and some of the players are no longer in the organization. Rooker was traded to San Diego as part of the Rogers deal and Petty was moved to the Reds for Sonny Gray. Landon Leach was released by Ft. Myers and signed by the Braves' organization.
 
2017 Player Grade MLB Draft # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Level Last Perf. Promo Spd Projection 1st Royce Lewis B 5 1 1-30 (Rnd1) On Par High School 22 MLB A C B CBA Brent Rooker* D 50 35 31-36 (CBA) Aggressive College 27 AAA A F C 2nd Landon Leach* D 101 37 37-67 (Rnd2) Reach College 22 A- D F D 3rd Blayne Enlow D 29 76 76-105 (Rnd3) Steal High School 23 AA F D D 2018 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Level Last Perform Promo Spd Projection 1st Trevor Larnach B 26 20 1-30 (Rnd1) On Par College 25 MLB B B B 2nd Ryan Jeffers C >200 59 44-78 (Rnd2) Huge Reach College 24 MLB D A D 3rd Forfeit for Lynn 1yr N/A         N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2019 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Age Level Last Perform Promo Spd Projection 1st Keoni Cavaco F 28 13 1-30 (Rnd1) Aggressive High School 21 A- C F F CBA Matt Wallner B 60 39 31-41 (CBA) Aggressive College 24 AA B C C 2nd Matt Canterino C 46 54 42-69 (Rnd2) On Par College 24 AA C C D CBB Forefeit (to trade Hughes) F       Total Failure N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3rd Spencer Steer A >200 90 79-107 (Rnd3) Huge Reach College 24 AAA A C B 2020 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Age Level Last Perform Promo Spd Projection 1st Aaron Sabato D 41 27 1-29 (Rnd1) Reach College 23 A+ D D F 2nd Alerick Soularie D 105 59 38-60 (Rnd2) Huge Reach College 22 A+ D C F CBB Forefit in Maeda Trade N/A         N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3rd Forefit for Donaldson N/A         N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2021 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Age Level Last Perform Promo Spd Projection 1st Chase Petty* A 27 26 1-29 (Rnd1) On Par High School 19 A- B A B CBA Noah Miller B 62 36 31-36 (CBA) Aggressive High School 19 A- B A C 2nd Steve Hajjar C 100 61 37-63 (Rnd2) Reach College 21 A- B C C 3rd Cade Povich A >250 98 72-101 (Rnd3) Huge Reach College 22 A+ A A B Upward movers:
Royce Lewis - C to B. While Lewis' performance blew away all expectations and was well worthy of an A grade here, it feels like there's been confirmation he's the next Buxton in regard to injuries. Lewis' injury history is no longer something which can be attributed solely to luck and the expectations on how much value he can add to a team should be significantly tempered as a result.

Landon Leach - F to D. Atlanta's coaches have clearly done something here. Leach's K rate is about the same, but his walk rate has absolutely plummeted. Leach has turned in mostly solid starts this year for Atlanta's low A team with a couple clunkers disguising how effective Leach has actually been. This is a positive for Falvey's draft, but a potential big negative for the development team. Based on his age and experience in the MiLB system, Leach's results this year 4.04 ERA, 4.29 xFIP are hardly worth praise, but the absolutely massive leap forward is worth not completely writing him off. 

Trevor Larnach - C to B. Larnach's struggles to hit basically anything other than a 4-seam fastball resulted in his performance, and my expectations, dropping like a stone. This year, Larnach started off fairly hot again and his wRC+ of 114 is sustainable for a bat first corner outfielder now that he's picked up a little extra speed as well. I'm going to ignore his huge slump over the last month, and especially last couple of weeks and hope it's luck related rather than a repeat of last season.

Matt Wallner - D to B. Wallner didn't impress me last year. As a 23 year old college hitter in an A+ league with only a power tool offset by poor plate discipline, I wasn't confident in his ability to take his game up the ladder. Wallner performed well in the Arizona Fall League, but I give almost zero value to performances in the AFL so coming into this year, I didn't expect a change. That said, Wallner has raked in AA, and now we're getting somewhere. Now age 24 and the mulligan of 2020's lost season fading, Wallner has delivered at the plate and significantly improved his game as well. Wallner's walk rate has jumped from a weak 9.5% (for a high K rate power hitter) to an impressive 17.1%. That's night and day. That's projectable. His OBP has also skyrocketed 54pts to .404 in a much, much harder league this year. Want more good news? He's only gotten better as the season has marched on. Since May 1, Wallner's OPS has been 1.026. His BB rate has increased slightly to 17.5% and even better, his K rate has declined a bit to 31.6% over that span. While the BABIP might have a bit to do with his .304 average, his performance isn't all HRs. Wallner has more 2B's than HR's since the beginning of May as well. Consider me much more interested in this guy's future.

Spencer Steer - C to A. Scouting reports on Steer's defense were clear he wasn't going to be a shortstop and an unimpressive season at the plate in AA last year after raking in A+ ball led me to drop expectations. Steer's walk rate dropped by over 50% and his strikeout rate nearly doubled from A+ to AA while his OPS dropped from .911 to .774. OOffffda. Lots of players cannot make the transition from low minors to the high minors. A+ to AA is the biggest step in baseball competition level, in my opinion. Steer has reclaimed a bit of walk rate, dropped the strikeouts quite a bit and crushed the baseball, earning a promotion to AAA where he continues to rake. While his BB rate is too low for a power hitter (9%-ish), it does seem like "power hitter" is an apt term for Steer. It's possible Steer can make the transition to being a quality MLB player. As a 3rd rounder, that's an A.
Noah Miller - C to B. Miller's performance last year was fine. He didn't light the world on fire in rookie ball with little pop .238/.316/.369 wRC+ 85, but as an 18 year old high school draft pick, even holding his own against professional players half way through their season and playing for a couple weeks was good enough. Miller's scouting reports show tough to grade potential with mediocre athleticism for a middle infielder, but he's credited with a high baseball IQ and good instincts which would offset it. That may be best evidenced by Miller stealing 13/15 on the basepaths this year. Miller focused on building core strength this offseason, but no power improvements are to be seen yet. That said, Miller's plate discipline has taken a major step forward with his promotion to A- league ball and that's kept him performing at the plate despite being utterly pop-less this year. Miller's .239/.378/.325 is good for a wRC+ of 114 in the low offense league. This is Miller's first full season of professional baseball and his excellent fielding percentage of .988 at shortstop practically brings a tear to my eye after watching seemingly every Twins SS prospect for the past decade boot baseballs like like they were playing soccer out there... If Miller can develop a little more pop or pick that average up, we could have a legitimate shortstop in the making.

Cade Povich - D to A. Povich hadn't pitched at all last year at the time of my grading, and considering he was a college signing who I classified as a huge reach, I graded it harshly. Povich has acquitted Falvey's draft strategy greatly this year. With a 12.8 K/9 and an acceptable 3.2 BB/9, Povich has put up a 3.38 ERA in not Low-A, but High-A. Povich saw 2 innings in Rookie ball and then only 8 innings in Ft. Myers last year and the Twins started him off in Cedar Rapids this year. Povich's 3.28 xFIP looks good and seems reasonable based on the 1.13 WHIP. Povich hasn't shown a huge Achilles heel like a lot of pitchers who struggle with walks or give up a ton of hits. At age 22 in A+ ball, it's not like a 3.38 ERA screams "ace" pitcher, but given the experience level and promotion rate, it's a good sign of him being able to hold his own up the ladder and Povich was a 3rd rounder.

Now for the fallers:

Brent Rooker - C to D. Rooker was moved this offseason in the Rogers' trade and it's hard to give him a dropping grade considering he's OPS'ing .999 in AAA for San Diego, but... he's in AAA. As a 2017 first rounder, that's not acceptable. Rooker's strikeout rate clearly has the Padres looking at him as a AAAA talent or he'd have seen action by now. It's ironic, San Diego had a need for Rooker's services earlier this year... just as he was hurt. Rooker did get the callup on the 13th for a double-header game, but didn't play and was sent right back to AAA. The advanced metrics on Rooker last year painted him as unlucky and worth some time, but it seems neither the Padres or Twins' coaches have been impressed with what they saw in person.

Blayne Enlow - C to D. Enlow finally returned to pitching after losing the vast majority of 2020-2021 to the COVID shutdown and a UCL tear. The Twins decided to protect Enlow from the Rule 5 draft this year, but Enlow's demonstrated poor control with a 4.9 BB/9 rate and he's been very hittable with an 8.9 H/9. Poor control is typical for younger pitchers when returning from TJ, and to Enlow's credit, he has returned quickly. That said, nothing about Enlow's true performance in the minors up until now has warranted excitement and there's no part of his game which is truly impressive this year. Scouting reports are great, but performance has to be there and Enlow needs to start producing. It's actually pretty concerning that Enlow walked nobody in his first two starts... and 11 batters in his last 12.2 IP.

Ryan Jeffers - B to C. Jeffers got the thumbs up for a B-grade despite having a rough year at the plate last year. After all, he still had the potential to be a career starting catcher and that's very valuable. Jeffers struggles at the plate have continued this year and the SSS factor is quickly evaporating. Now, it's not like Jeffers has been John Ryan Murphy at the plate as Jeffers continues to hit well enough to justify being a backup catcher, but Jeffers' bat is decidedly below MLB average and his mediocre defense isn't going to offset his weak plate performance enough to be a starter. Projecting Jeffers as more than a career backup doesn't feel likely to me.

Matt Canterino - B to C. Canterino may have already pitched more innings in AA this year than he was able to pitch all last year in Low/High A, and Canterino may own a sparkly 1.83 ERA, but the performance is an illusion. With an ugly 5.77 BB/9, helpful .225 BABIP and an absurdly low 0.26 HR/9 thanks to the 2.6% HR/FB rate, the 4.78 xFIP tells a very different story. Beyond the expected performance, there's no way an uninjured pitcher with a 5+ BB/9 rate in the minors can be effective in MLB. Canterino is also closer to his 25th birthday than his 24th at this point. Still some time to turn it around, but this year has been deflating for fans. 

Aaron Sabato - C to D. The leash on Sabato's lack of performance has ended. After an uninspiring performance in Low A last year, Sabato was promoted to Cedar Rapids and he responded with a home run derby performance to put his stock back on track. Repeating A+ ball this year, Sabato has failed to repeat his home run fueled explosion last year. All that remains is the pedestrian 13.7% walk rate for a 23 year old college power hitter repeating a season in the low minors to go along with the 33% K rate. Sabato's power hasn't been on display this season, managing an ISO of just .174, and that won't get it done with a .214 batting average. Sabato still sports a wRC+ of 107 in the A+ league, but for poor defensive 1B/DH, who was drafted in the first round, that's not going to cut it. Sabato really doesn't look like he's MLB caliber.

All in all, Falvey's grade jumps from a 1.67 (C-) to a 2.00 solid C. There were enough upward movers to more than offset the scufflers. The 2021 draft class still looks like it may be Falvey's best with a lot of solid performers, but it's way too early to tell... also, we traded away the best of the prospects in that class with Chase Petty in the Reds' system now where he's pitching very well in Low-A.

Towards the end of last year, I decided to evaluate Falvey's draft record at the time. As I noted, it was a work in progress and there has been quite a bit of shifting around this year. I postulated this year would be a critical year for Falvey's future with the Twins as fans, and I'm sure owners, were waiting with bated breath for the pitchers of the future to arrive and the high round draft choices to prove their mettle, advance through the system, and prove the front office's methodology.
To paraphrase my previous blog:
Falvey has shown a tendency to draft one tool (power) position players in the high rounds and they weren't particularly successful. eg. Sabato, Wallner, Rooker and he's had very little success in early round pitchers developing and moving up through the system.

Methodology:
Link to previous blog:
 
So how have things graded out this year? There's definitely been a fair bit of movement and some of the players are no longer in the organization. Rooker was traded to San Diego as part of the Rogers deal and Petty was moved to the Reds for Sonny Gray. Landon Leach was released by Ft. Myers and signed by the Braves' organization.
 
2017 Player Grade MLB Draft # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Level Last Perf. Promo Spd Projection 1st Royce Lewis B 5 1 1-30 (Rnd1) On Par High School 22 MLB A C B CBA Brent Rooker* D 50 35 31-36 (CBA) Aggressive College 27 AAA A F C 2nd Landon Leach* D 101 37 37-67 (Rnd2) Reach College 22 A- D F D 3rd Blayne Enlow D 29 76 76-105 (Rnd3) Steal High School 23 AA F D D 2018 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Level Last Perform Promo Spd Projection 1st Trevor Larnach B 26 20 1-30 (Rnd1) On Par College 25 MLB B B B 2nd Ryan Jeffers C >200 59 44-78 (Rnd2) Huge Reach College 24 MLB D A D 3rd Forfeit for Lynn 1yr N/A         N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2019 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Age Level Last Perform Promo Spd Projection 1st Keoni Cavaco F 28 13 1-30 (Rnd1) Aggressive High School 21 A- C F F CBA Matt Wallner B 60 39 31-41 (CBA) Aggressive College 24 AA B C C 2nd Matt Canterino C 46 54 42-69 (Rnd2) On Par College 24 AA C C D CBB Forefeit (to trade Hughes) F       Total Failure N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3rd Spencer Steer A >200 90 79-107 (Rnd3) Huge Reach College 24 AAA A C B 2020 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Age Level Last Perform Promo Spd Projection 1st Aaron Sabato D 41 27 1-29 (Rnd1) Reach College 23 A+ D D F 2nd Alerick Soularie D 105 59 38-60 (Rnd2) Huge Reach College 22 A+ D C F CBB Forefit in Maeda Trade N/A         N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3rd Forefit for Donaldson N/A         N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2021 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Age Level Last Perform Promo Spd Projection 1st Chase Petty* A 27 26 1-29 (Rnd1) On Par High School 19 A- B A B CBA Noah Miller B 62 36 31-36 (CBA) Aggressive High School 19 A- B A C 2nd Steve Hajjar C 100 61 37-63 (Rnd2) Reach College 21 A- B C C 3rd Cade Povich A >250 98 72-101 (Rnd3) Huge Reach College 22 A+ A A B Upward movers:
Royce Lewis - C to B. While Lewis' performance blew away all expectations and was well worthy of an A grade here, it feels like there's been confirmation he's the next Buxton in regard to injuries. Lewis' injury history is no longer something which can be attributed solely to luck and the expectations on how much value he can add to a team should be significantly tempered as a result.

Landon Leach - F to D. Atlanta's coaches have clearly done something here. Leach's K rate is about the same, but his walk rate has absolutely plummeted. Leach has turned in mostly solid starts this year for Atlanta's low A team with a couple clunkers disguising how effective Leach has actually been. This is a positive for Falvey's draft, but a potential big negative for the development team. Based on his age and experience in the MiLB system, Leach's results this year 4.04 ERA, 4.29 xFIP are hardly worth praise, but the absolutely massive leap forward is worth not completely writing him off. 

Trevor Larnach - C to B. Larnach's struggles to hit basically anything other than a 4-seam fastball resulted in his performance, and my expectations, dropping like a stone. This year, Larnach started off fairly hot again and his wRC+ of 114 is sustainable for a bat first corner outfielder now that he's picked up a little extra speed as well. I'm going to ignore his huge slump over the last month, and especially last couple of weeks and hope it's luck related rather than a repeat of last season.

Matt Wallner - D to B. Wallner didn't impress me last year. As a 23 year old college hitter in an A+ league with only a power tool offset by poor plate discipline, I wasn't confident in his ability to take his game up the ladder. Wallner performed well in the Arizona Fall League, but I give almost zero value to performances in the AFL so coming into this year, I didn't expect a change. That said, Wallner has raked in AA, and now we're getting somewhere. Now age 24 and the mulligan of 2020's lost season fading, Wallner has delivered at the plate and significantly improved his game as well. Wallner's walk rate has jumped from a weak 9.5% (for a high K rate power hitter) to an impressive 17.1%. That's night and day. That's projectable. His OBP has also skyrocketed 54pts to .404 in a much, much harder league this year. Want more good news? He's only gotten better as the season has marched on. Since May 1, Wallner's OPS has been 1.026. His BB rate has increased slightly to 17.5% and even better, his K rate has declined a bit to 31.6% over that span. While the BABIP might have a bit to do with his .304 average, his performance isn't all HRs. Wallner has more 2B's than HR's since the beginning of May as well. Consider me much more interested in this guy's future.

Spencer Steer - C to A. Scouting reports on Steer's defense were clear he wasn't going to be a shortstop and an unimpressive season at the plate in AA last year after raking in A+ ball led me to drop expectations. Steer's walk rate dropped by over 50% and his strikeout rate nearly doubled from A+ to AA while his OPS dropped from .911 to .774. OOffffda. Lots of players cannot make the transition from low minors to the high minors. A+ to AA is the biggest step in baseball competition level, in my opinion. Steer has reclaimed a bit of walk rate, dropped the strikeouts quite a bit and crushed the baseball, earning a promotion to AAA where he continues to rake. While his BB rate is too low for a power hitter (9%-ish), it does seem like "power hitter" is an apt term for Steer. It's possible Steer can make the transition to being a quality MLB player. As a 3rd rounder, that's an A.
Noah Miller - C to B. Miller's performance last year was fine. He didn't light the world on fire in rookie ball with little pop .238/.316/.369 wRC+ 85, but as an 18 year old high school draft pick, even holding his own against professional players half way through their season and playing for a couple weeks was good enough. Miller's scouting reports show tough to grade potential with mediocre athleticism for a middle infielder, but he's credited with a high baseball IQ and good instincts which would offset it. That may be best evidenced by Miller stealing 13/15 on the basepaths this year. Miller focused on building core strength this offseason, but no power improvements are to be seen yet. That said, Miller's plate discipline has taken a major step forward with his promotion to A- league ball and that's kept him performing at the plate despite being utterly pop-less this year. Miller's .239/.378/.325 is good for a wRC+ of 114 in the low offense league. This is Miller's first full season of professional baseball and his excellent fielding percentage of .988 at shortstop practically brings a tear to my eye after watching seemingly every Twins SS prospect for the past decade boot baseballs like like they were playing soccer out there... If Miller can develop a little more pop or pick that average up, we could have a legitimate shortstop in the making.

Cade Povich - D to A. Povich hadn't pitched at all last year at the time of my grading, and considering he was a college signing who I classified as a huge reach, I graded it harshly. Povich has acquitted Falvey's draft strategy greatly this year. With a 12.8 K/9 and an acceptable 3.2 BB/9, Povich has put up a 3.38 ERA in not Low-A, but High-A. Povich saw 2 innings in Rookie ball and then only 8 innings in Ft. Myers last year and the Twins started him off in Cedar Rapids this year. Povich's 3.28 xFIP looks good and seems reasonable based on the 1.13 WHIP. Povich hasn't shown a huge Achilles heel like a lot of pitchers who struggle with walks or give up a ton of hits. At age 22 in A+ ball, it's not like a 3.38 ERA screams "ace" pitcher, but given the experience level and promotion rate, it's a good sign of him being able to hold his own up the ladder and Povich was a 3rd rounder.

Now for the fallers:

Brent Rooker - C to D. Rooker was moved this offseason in the Rogers' trade and it's hard to give him a dropping grade considering he's OPS'ing .999 in AAA for San Diego, but... he's in AAA. As a 2017 first rounder, that's not acceptable. Rooker's strikeout rate clearly has the Padres looking at him as a AAAA talent or he'd have seen action by now. It's ironic, San Diego had a need for Rooker's services earlier this year... just as he was hurt. Rooker did get the callup on the 13th for a double-header game, but didn't play and was sent right back to AAA. The advanced metrics on Rooker last year painted him as unlucky and worth some time, but it seems neither the Padres or Twins' coaches have been impressed with what they saw in person.

Blayne Enlow - C to D. Enlow finally returned to pitching after losing the vast majority of 2020-2021 to the COVID shutdown and a UCL tear. The Twins decided to protect Enlow from the Rule 5 draft this year, but Enlow's demonstrated poor control with a 4.9 BB/9 rate and he's been very hittable with an 8.9 H/9. Poor control is typical for younger pitchers when returning from TJ, and to Enlow's credit, he has returned quickly. That said, nothing about Enlow's true performance in the minors up until now has warranted excitement and there's no part of his game which is truly impressive this year. Scouting reports are great, but performance has to be there and Enlow needs to start producing. It's actually pretty concerning that Enlow walked nobody in his first two starts... and 11 batters in his last 12.2 IP.

Ryan Jeffers - B to C. Jeffers got the thumbs up for a B-grade despite having a rough year at the plate last year. After all, he still had the potential to be a career starting catcher and that's very valuable. Jeffers struggles at the plate have continued this year and the SSS factor is quickly evaporating. Now, it's not like Jeffers has been John Ryan Murphy at the plate as Jeffers continues to hit well enough to justify being a backup catcher, but Jeffers' bat is decidedly below MLB average and his mediocre defense isn't going to offset his weak plate performance enough to be a starter. Projecting Jeffers as more than a career backup doesn't feel likely to me.

Matt Canterino - B to C. Canterino may have already pitched more innings in AA this year than he was able to pitch all last year in Low/High A, and Canterino may own a sparkly 1.83 ERA, but the performance is an illusion. With an ugly 5.77 BB/9, helpful .225 BABIP and an absurdly low 0.26 HR/9 thanks to the 2.6% HR/FB rate, the 4.78 xFIP tells a very different story. Beyond the expected performance, there's no way an uninjured pitcher with a 5+ BB/9 rate in the minors can be effective in MLB. Canterino is also closer to his 25th birthday than his 24th at this point. Still some time to turn it around, but this year has been deflating for fans. 

Aaron Sabato - C to D. The leash on Sabato's lack of performance has ended. After an uninspiring performance in Low A last year, Sabato was promoted to Cedar Rapids and he responded with a home run derby performance to put his stock back on track. Repeating A+ ball this year, Sabato has failed to repeat his home run fueled explosion last year. All that remains is the pedestrian 13.7% walk rate for a 23 year old college power hitter repeating a season in the low minors to go along with the 33% K rate. Sabato's power hasn't been on display this season, managing an ISO of just .174, and that won't get it done with a .214 batting average. Sabato still sports a wRC+ of 107 in the A+ league, but for poor defensive 1B/DH, who was drafted in the first round, that's not going to cut it. Sabato really doesn't look like he's MLB caliber.

All in all, Falvey's grade jumps from a 1.67 (C-) to a 2.00 solid C. There were enough upward movers to more than offset the scufflers. The 2021 draft class still looks like it may be Falvey's best with a lot of solid performers, but it's way too early to tell... also, we traded away the best of the prospects in that class with Chase Petty in the Reds' system now where he's pitching very well in Low-A.