The first step in any offseason plan is identifying the needs and the wants for the organization. The only real needs are a payroll of $130MM or less, and a full 26 man roster with 13 or more position players to meet MLB rules. While ownership is on record saying they don’t expect to cut payroll further or that they expect payroll to remain similar, Falvey is also on more recent record making it about as clear as he possibly could last year’s $130MM mark the Twins opened with is the ceiling. “Similar” means close to, but definitely not over. Say $125-130MM? This means salary relief is an absolute need since the Twins are already about $140MM with the guys they control.

Onto the critical “wants” which somebody might expect to have a major impact on team performance. It’s similar to last year, but unlike 2023-2024’s offseason, that 2^nd top of the rotation pitcher isn’t even worth talking about.
1. Center Fielder – Buxton cannot be the only potential everyday center fielder on the roster.
2. Infielder(s) – Carlos Santana’s a free agent, and the Twins got nothing from 2B last year.

On to the major holes the Twins would be wise to address.
3. Designated Hitter – The Twins have precious few options to fill in a DH role.
4. Lefty Reliever – Thielbar’s on the way out and Funderburk looked rough.
5. Catcher – It’d be nice if the Twins had a catcher who could both hit the ball and field.

Anything else feels like it’d be a pipe dream to hope for as the Twins are going to be limited in free agency, and I feel the Pohlads must have locked the prospect pipeline down based on recent season moves/non-moves by the front office. The only way the Twins open things up in free agency is if they move Correa, and I don’t see that as a likely scenario at all. It’s time to get real “creative” as Falvey will need to do.

Non-tender Kyle Farmer and Manuel Margot. Those already happened, and they were no doubters anyway. Kepler and Santana are free agents and off the books. Even so, we’re still starting over the payroll limit with team controlled players by about $10MM at $140MMish.

Step 1) The Twins agree with the Mariners to trade Trevor Larnach and sign/trade Justin Topa back to Seattle for Victor Robles. Robles signed a team friendly 2 year contract with a club option with the Mariners, and Robles has made it look like a great move. Robles had a great season with Seattle to build on his 2023 in Washington, which is pretty unexpected given Robles’ rough track record. The expected values at the plate throw a healthy dose of water onto the real .307/.381/.433 OPS .814 wRC+ 141 results from the 27 year old, but by expected metrics, he was still an above average hitter. Think .260/.340/.400 OPS .740 wRC+ 120ish. Not too far above Larnach’s numbers, but Robles is a righty who can cover center field, though he's a bit stretched there. Btw, just you try to find a right handed outfielder who isn’t a black hole at the plate or in the field in MLB these days. So why would the Mariners make this move? Unlike the Twins, the Mariners could really benefit from an extra lefty bat without sacrificing years of control. Also, it’s bad news for them to rely upon players who hit all home runs in Seattle’s cavernous stadium (see Garver, Mitch).  Larnach’s a lefty bat who has a nice line drive output swing the Mariners could really use, Larnach is a bit cheaper. On the Topa side, Seattle’s bullpen is in disarray this offseason. The inclusion of Topa balances out Robles’ value, and Seattle is obviously comfortable with the pitcher as Topa has history there including a really solid 2023. Viewing this transaction from BaseballTradeValues perspective Larnach +14.5 & Topa +9.8 (don’t ask me, man) 24.3 total offset Robles’ 22.2 nicely. Topa’s easily exchangeable with other middle value bullpen options so he’s just a name/value to make sense.

Step 2) The Twins re-sign Willi Castro. You can debate what position you want Castro to play, but with a legitimate potential CF on the roster, Castro can hopefully focus on the infield slots. Lee was worse than rough at the plate. The .221/.265/.320 OPS .585 wRC+ 62 performance made Christian Vazquez look solid, and with all the flak he took, Julien’s .199/.292/.323 OPS .616 wRC+ 80 performance enjoyed advantages in both a substantial advantage in OBP and even a little SLG over Lee. Neither Lee nor Julien can be relied upon as an everyday infielder in 2025 based on how they played. Willi Castro’s presence makes a massive change to the injury protection depth, and the baseline of the infield’s expected performance.

Step 3) So we’ve added about $7MM to the salary so far. Seems fine… and here’s where the Twins double that! The Twins really could use a legitimate DH, and J.D. Martinez is aging, but he still ripped off a lot of high exit velocities last year. His .235/.320/.406 OPS .725 wRC+ 108 season belied his luck, and that gets the 37 year old slugger down into the $7MM one year contract range which some creative rostering can handle. His xwOBA was nearly 40pts above his actual performance which says he should have hit .260/.355/.485 OPS .840ish wRC+ 130 or so, and traditionally, Martinez has been pretty close in expected/actual numbers. Not quite the elite prime bat he was, but still highly valuable. Martinez would add that right-handed power bat the Twins have really been missing since Cruz’s departure.

Step 4) Okay, so we’re wayyyyyy over budget now. Great! Time to clear some space and take care of the catcher position where the Twins desperately need a long term solution, not just a band-aid. How will the Twins afford this one? Pablo Lopez. We can’t give up a top end starter though! The much loved starter and ace of the team’s $22MM contract isn’t as crippling as Correa’s, but it’s exceptionally easy to move. Lopez is viewed as a front-end starter by many teams and analysts across the sport, and he comes with 3 years of team friendly team control. Baseballtradevalues says +37.4, and that’s big-time value which can move some scales. But it’s not like the Twins can cast off their best pitcher and expect to be competitive. Enter the Diamondbacks. I talked about this trade already. Zac Gallen is their franchise pitcher just like Lopez is for the Twins, but Gallen is on borrowed time. He’s gone at the end of the year, and this close to free agency with the RSN issue in full force for the Diamondbacks, they just aren’t going to be able to get to that 7yrs+ $200MM+ contract extension to keep Gallen from free agency. Arizona is in the middle of their competitive window, and they can’t afford to have it wiped out so soon. In case you're not familiar with Gallen, he'll be in his age 29 season next year and has a career 3.24 ERA, 3.45 FIP. He's a consistent 4-5 WAR legitimate universally accepted ace. He lost a bunch of time with a strained hammy last year, but has been otherwise very durable. Lopez keeps their window open for 2 more years than Gallen would, and at a price point where AZ can still put food on the table. The Twins have starter prospects, and maybe some more money soon with an owner change. The Diamondbacks have neither so they’re really in a tough spot for future rotation options. Those extra 2 years of team control for Lopez make all the difference and get the Twins a solid, young, cost-controlled catcher named Gabriel Moreno. Moreno is a high on base, high contact rate hitter with a little pop who will only be 25 next year. A career .280/.347/.393 OPS .740 wRC+ 105 hitter, Moreno put together a solid .266/.353/.380 OPS .734 wRC+ 107 line again last year. On top of that, Moreno provides solid defense catching about 30% of base runners, and posting neutral framing numbers (if you believe in that stat). DRS has Morneo at +32, and FRV at +13. BaseballSavant had Moreno at or above average across the board defensively last year with 51 block, stealing 79, framing 74, and a fast pop time. The pre-arb catcher will be entering his prime as a shield against potential decline as well. The Diamondbacks already have catching depth with legit potential plus catching prospect Adrian Del Castillo split between MLB/AAA last year. The Twins save $7MM in this transaction. As far as BaseballTradeValues views it? Lopez +37.4 offsets Gallen +19.5 & Moreno 16.6 (total 36.1).

Step 5) Now that we have a solid 1-2 punch at catcher, Vazquez becomes a piece the Twins can legitimately look at trading, but they’re not going to be able to offload his entire $10MM contract. The Tampa Bay Rays need a catcher, and they’re going to be looking for a defensively minded, right-handed option to pair with Ben Rortvedt, but on the cheap. The Twins need a lefty bullpen arm with some potential. Let’s make a deal. The Twins send Vazquez and $5MM to the always frugal Tampa Bay Rays who return lefty relief fireballer Mason Montgomery. Montgomery struggled with walks in AAA, but the reliever prospect earned a call up in September at age 24. Montgomery can touch triple digits, but he sits at 97-98mph with his fastball and 88-89mph with the potential wipeout slider. Montgomery is just a 2 pitch guy who gives up a lot of fly balls, and movement isn’t special on either, but the velo makes his stuff dangerous and Stuff+ grades the FB at 150 (75ish grade) and the slider at 110 (55ish grade) in limited sample data. His velo is offset by the limited pitch options and control issues. Still, he’s got potential, and he’s left-handed so that’s why the Twins eat the $5MM. BaseballTradeValues isn’t seemingly great with unknown/mid/low level prospects or catchers. I think Vazquez is worth a little more than BTV does at Vazquez -7.8 + 5.0, and I’d think Montgomery is worth a bit more than his 2.4. I think it’s fair.

Step 6) Remember that payroll “need” thing? We’re still not there yet. Chris Paddack isn’t going to be moved anywhere at full price, but for a good deal, Paddack would be valuable to a team needing rotation depth, especially early in the season. The Twins eat $3MM of Paddack’s salary getting him down to $4.5MM to box him up for shipment. With the Baltimore Orioles hoping to get a couple starters back during the year, Paddack is great early year insurance at a price that doesn’t hurt their other pursuits. In return, the Twins beg for scraps and get righty reliever Colin Selby. Colin Selby will be 27 next year so he’s not a real “prospect,” but Baltimore did call him up towards the end of the year, including a game against the Twins. He appears to have added a 4 seamer to his sinker/slider/curve options this past year, though the 4 seamer grades out poorly in Stuff+. Fastball 80 (40ish grade), Sinker 120 (60ish grade), Slider 141 (70ish grade), Curve 144 (70ish grade). His velo can touch 97, but it’s inconsistent ranging from 93-97 whereas the breaking stuff is more reliable with the Slider at 87-89 and the curve at 82-84. While the stuff is there, the control is not, and Selby struggles to locate his pitches. Selby’s had some success at AAA, but he also gave up a lot of homers and tons of walks thanks to those control issues. Feels a lot like Sim... Maybe the Twins can address the issues a little? He’s only got 1 option left, but it feels like the righty is solid bullpen depth at least. BaseballTradeValues thinks Paddack is -1.6 + 3.0 vs. the Selby at 1.4 at the beginning of 2024. I don’t have a subscription, and nobody’s proposing trades for him, so I can’t tell you for sure what it is today… except, low.

All said and done, here’s how the roster construction looks now.

Obviously, I like the overall package since I'm the one who dreamed it up. I like the depth in case anything goes sideways with the outfield or infield, and I think we've got plenty of mid/back rotation ready depth at AAA, though grabbing a veteran on a MiLB contract wouldn't be a bad idea. The rotation should be very strong with Gallen at the front, and hopefully Festa can figure out that curveball he's trying to add to his repertoire as it could potentially turn him into an upper rotation threat, and at least avoid a Sophomore Slump. Defense in the outfield will be better than last year with Robles being a significant upgrade vs. Margot, and depending on how Martin performs, there's potential for Keirsey to be called up since Robles isn't a lefty. Since Baldelli prefers to use Castro as a utility guy, there's plenty of opportunity to move him around provided Julien or Lee get on track. The bullpen is a little more difficult. Tonkin I'm keeping since he's been durable, serviceable and cheap, but his improvements last year gave him some new upside. Henriquez is out of options, and he might be more than the sum of his parts so to speak so I have him on the 26 man over Varland. Montgomery gets the nod over Funderburk. We've got solid (theoretical) depth again in the reliever world with Canterino, Selby, Funderburk, and Varland. That said, there are going to be injuries so it's not like the roster won't shift around. I like this team to win over 90 games, and provided there's even a little luck on health, it could be be a real World Series potential threat. The toughest part of this projection is after 2025, the Twins might find themselves in an even tougher position payroll/needs wise.

As for the outgoing guys, if you want to keep track:

Onto the 40 man plan. Probably less interesting to some folks. The Twins have already outrighted Josh Winder, Yunior Severino, Randy Dobnak, Scott Blewett, and Daniel Duarte. They all cleared waivers, but I believe they’re all technically Rule 5 eligible now.

I’d also outright Brent Headrick to clear 40 man space while keeping all other existing 40 man roster players. Headrick is a lefty, but his track record is awfully weak. Add in the injury history, and I just don’t think he’s necessary to protect. I’d add Richardo Olivar, Kala’i Rosario, Christian MacLeod, Travis Adams, and the acquisition from Baltimore, Colin Selby so that sets the additional 14 members of the 40 man roster as:

As for the outgoing space clearing on the 40 man, here is this group. I do think there' a good chance Winder is going to be grabbed if he's rule 5 eligible (I don't understand any potential intricacy), but I don't think anybody else is at risk.