bean5302

Why do hitters need power? They don't, but a guy like Walker Jenkins who will be a fringy center fielder or more likely a good corner outfield bat, needs power to push his ceiling. 150+ Game Corner Outfielder with +5 runs defense would go something like... .275/.350/.400 ISO .125 Low Power WAR = 2.5 WAR .275/.350/.450 ISO .175 Moderate Power = 4.0 WAR .275/.350/.500 ISO .225 Good Power = 6.5 WAR .275/.350/.550 ISO .275 Elite Power = 8.0 WAR All the comments about Luis Arraez... he played with a torn thumb ligament last year. The Lopez fans love to denigrate Arraez, but it seems he's a solid wRC+ 130 hitter when his thumb is fully attached.

Reading the scouting reports (the athletic tools) you got Mike Trout, who is a first ballot HoF'er. My counterpoint was an equally unlikely and poor comparison (Joe Benson).

Strange, I get Joe Benson.

Based on the numbers in the chart, you can be sure of one thing. Walker Jenkins is going to make MLB. Also, it's rare for a player to appear in the top 5 more than once, either from losing prospect status or dropping down the list, but most of the time, the player ranked this high is in MLB within a calendar year or so after their ranking. If Jenkins tears up AA I'm sure he'll be in AAA mid-year and he could potentially get some playing time at Target Field before the end of the season. It'd be a surprise for Jenkins not play a big portion of the 2026 season on the MLB roster. He was 6'3 and 210lbs of super lean muscle at the draft point. Swimmers know how to be strong AF without putting on weight, but still, I'm not sure how much people expect him to "fill out" because he's not some 160lb high school prospect like Nick Gordon was. Morneau played at 6'4 and 220lbs in his prime. Turning him into a 300lb (Cartman voice) BEEFCAKE!!!! (/Cartman voice) isn't likely the source to improve his power. Jenkins is young, but lets comparing him to other players from this list who were all elite prospects at age 19 (I swear the batting average is not a typo) and in A+ or above. Some prospects were drafted out of college, some were pitchers, and some didn't play in A+ or higher at age 19 (2020 lost season impacted a lot). To be fair, some of these guys I'm comparing Jenkins are potential hall of famers so this isn't some sort of fair bar to determine whether or not Jenkins can be a very good every day player, it's just next to the true superstars, the shine on his production doesn't stand out as much. Ordered by level, then by wRC+ 1) MLB .270/.340/.477 OPS .817 ISO .206 wRC+ 121 Bryce Harper 2) AA .326/.374/.520 OPS .895 ISO .195, wRC+ 159 Ron Acuna, Jr. 3) AA .326/.414/.544 OPS .958, ISO .218, wRC+ 156 Mike Trout 4) AA .326/.351/.598 OPS .909, ISO .272 wRC+ 159 Xander Bogaerts 5) AA .402/.449/.671 OPS 1.120, ISO .269 wRC+ 203 Vlad Guerrero, Jr. 6) AA .286/.355/.507 OPS .862, ISO .221 wRC+ 133 Fernando Tatis, Jr. 7) AA .253/.315/.542 OPS .857, ISO .289 wRC+ 133 Jarred Kelenic 8) AA .289/.407/.395 OPS .801, ISO .105 wRC+ 131 Francisco Lindor 9) AA .281/.368/.452 OPS .820, ISO .171 wRC+ 127 Jurickson Profar 10) A+ .346/.453/.512 OPS .966, ISO .166 wRC+ 172 Wil Myers 11) A+ .326/.415/.472 OPS .887, ISO .147 wRC+ 155 Byron Buxton 12) A+ .290/.382/.481 OPS .862, ISO .191, wRC+ 147 Walker Jenkins 13) A+ .325/.416/.510 OPS .926, ISO .185 wRC+ 144 Carlos Correa 14) A+ .275/.377/.508 OPS .885 ISO .233 wRC+ 131 Addison Russell 15) A+ .275/.359/.433 OPS .791 ISO .157 wRC+ 121 Gleyber Torres 16) A+ .275/.352/.407 OPS .759, ISO .131 wRC+ 119 J.P. Crawford 17) A+ .255/.327/.399 OPS .726, ISO .144 wRC+ 110 Royce Lewis 18) A+ .262/.354/.387 OPS .741, ISO .125 wRC+ 110 Victor Robles 19) A+ .257/.307/.335 OPS .642 ISO .078 wRC+ 97 Amed Rosario I've bolded the guys who have proven themselves as perennial quality starters thus far. I think it's pretty apparent Jenkins is on the line where stud players are less likely to shake out, though the book isn't closed yet on many of these players. It's worth noting the only players on this list lower than Jenkins who've already panned out were shortstops with far more defensive value than Jenkins will have. Jenkins has a lot to prove in AA next year to maintain his status as a top prospect and stay on course to be a solid MLB player.

Lets take a look at top prospects over the past decade or so. I'll take it back to 2011 where MLB's prospect lists begin and look at all prospects to appear on a top 5 from 2011-2023 (52 in total). I don't care about injuries or legal troubles, etc. I only care about production for years they played at the MLB level. No excuses. 6pts >6.0 fWAR = MVP Caliber 5pts 4.0-6.0 fWAR = All Star Caliber 4pts 2.0-3.9 fWAR = Solid Starter 3pts 1.0-1.9 fWAR = Fringe Starter 2pts 0.5-0.9 fWAR = Role Player 1pt <0.5 fWAR = Bit Player First off, every single player to ever appear on the top 5 for MLB from 2011-2023 has made MLB. 100%. You'll also see the trend that by 10 years from now, most players are no longer part of MLB. Player Last Appears Best Year Avg Year Future 1 Mike Trout 2012 6 6 MVP Caliber 2 Jeremy Hellickson 2011 4 2 N/A 3 Bryce Harper 2012 6 5 All Star Caliber 4 Domonic Brown 2011 4 1 N/A 5 Dustin Ackley 2011 4 2 N/A 6 Matt Moore 2012 4 2 N/A 7 Julio Teheran 2012 4 3 N/A 8 Shelby Miller 2012 4 2 Bit Player 9 Jurickson Profar 2013 5 2 Solid Starter 10 Dylan Bundy 2013 4 3 N/A 11 Oscar Taveras 2014 1 1 N/A 12 Wil Myers 2013 4 3 N/A 13 Taijuan Walker 2013 4 3 Bit Player 14 Byron Buxton 2016 5 4 Solid Starter 15 Xander Bogaerts 2014 5 5 Solid Starter 16 Miguel Sano 2014 4 2 N/A 17 Archie Bradley 2014 4 2 N/A 18 Kris Bryant 2015 6 4 Bit Player 19 Carlos Correa 2015 6 5 Solid Starter 20 Francisco Lindor 2015 6 6 MVP Caliber 21 Addison Russell 2015 4 4 N/A 22 Corey Seager 2016 6 4 Solid Starter 23 Lucas Giolito 2016 6 3 Role Player 24 Julio Urias 2016 6 3 N/A 25 J.P. Crawford 2016 5 3 Fringe Starter 26 Andrew Benintendi 2017 5 3 Bit Player 27 Yoan Moncada 2017 5 3 Fringe Starter 28 Gleyber Torres 2018 4 4 Solid Starter 29 Dansby Swanson 2017 6 4 Solid Starter 30 Amed Rosario 2017 4 2 Bit Player 31 Shohei Ohtani 2018 6 6 MVP Caliber 32 Ron Acuna Jr. 2018 6 4 All Star Caliber 33 Vlad Guerrero Jr 2019 6 4 Solid Starter 34 Eloy Jimenez 2019 3 2 Bit Player 35 Fernando Tatis 2019 6 4 Solid Starter 36 Victor Robles 2019 4 2 Solid Starter 37 Royce Lewis 2019 4 3 Solid Starter 38 Wander Franco 2021 5 4 N/A 39 Gavin Lux 2020 4 2 Fringe Starter 40 Luis Robert Jr 2020 5 4 Solid Starter 41 Adley Rutschman 2022 5 5 All Star Caliber 42 MacKenzie Gore 2020 4 3 Solid Starter 43 Spencer Torkelson 2022 3 2 Fringe Starter 44 Jarred Kelenic 2021 3 1 Bit Player 45 Julio Rodriguez 2022 6 5 Solid Starter 46 Bobby Witt Jr. 2022 6 6 MVP Caliber 47 Riley Greene 2022 5 4 All Star Caliber 48 Gunnar Henderson 2023 6 6 MVP Caliber 49 Corbin Carroll 2023 5 5 All Star Caliber 50 Francisco Alvarez 2023 4 4 Solid Starter 51 Jordan Walker 2023 3 2 Too Early 52 Anthony Volpe 2023 4 4 Solid Starter There's about a 10% chance a player who appears on the list becomes a perennial MVP candidate like a Mike Trout or Francisco Lindor, and an additional 10% chance they'll become perennial All Star caliber players like a Bryce Harper or Carlos Correa. After those stars, there's another 30% chance or so the player becomes a solid starter like a Dansby Swanson or Gleyber Torres type. Then there are about 20% of players who stick around as fringy guys who are good enough to fill holes in rosters in a pinch. These guys stick around for a few years at least. The Wil Myers' of the world, if you will. There's about a 30% chance the player never amounts to much. They might have a isolated good season or two, but in the grand scheme of things, it'll be a pretty ephemeral career which is typically over with minimal impact like an Archie Bradley.

LOL, Joe Ryan elevates the entire rotation to elite, does he?

Plenty. As of projections today, ATL, LAD, PHI, KCR, SEA, SDP, HOU. Add a half dozen more by the end of free agency.

I'm really not bullish on Rodriguez. With poor contact rates despite not chasing balls out of the zone, it suggests his plate approach is similar to Julien's, with a similar big hole in the swing MLB pitchers will be able to exploit. Rodriguez does have more game power than Julien so that insulates him a bit, but his BB rate is even more unsustainable against pitchers who can hit their spots. I'd like to see him get at least 200 PA against AAA pitching to see how he fares in BB/K rates. Fans of Julien consistently point to his production in 2023 as a baseline for him with the argument 2024 was just a sophomore slump from which he's going to rebound. Often ignored is the expected stats being much lower than actual in 2023. .263/.381/.459 OPS .839 wRC+ 135 vs. expected .233/.355/.427 OPS .782 wRC+ 115ish In 2024, Julien earned his production. Pitchers took full advantage of the hole in Julien's swing by jamming him inside with the infrequent fastballs they did throw, and they fed Julien more breaking pitches he's not as adept with handling. Julien's frustration was obvious, and he grew more aggressive with pitches those inside edge pitches he'd laid off in 2023, but he can't drive them so the swings turned into soft outs and K's. Trevor Larnach was also mentioned above. The comparison is apt here, too. Larnach rarely chased pitches out of the zone, but he also rarely swung at pitches in the zone always looking for that fat fastball to crush. Larnach's contact rates are better than Julien's, though so when Larnach got more aggressive, his K rate dropped and more balls wound up dropping in for hits. Living off the mistake fastball can work in the minors with excellent plate discipline, but one only has to look at Aaron Sabato to see what a fine line that strategy really is. If the batters skills aren't elite or the opposing pitcher knows how to place a pitch or attack a players weakness, waiting for the meatball will end with failure. It's worth noting that I'm pretty sure both Larnach and Julien have better contact rates than Rodriguez. There's simply no margin for error with Rodriguez. I suspect MLB pitchers will eat him alive until he reworks his swing (and reworking his swing may sap his power) which is why I'd trade him or a package for a solid center fielder with a few years of team control if I could.

Yes. The Twins' front office's wisdom should be far greater than casual fans posting comments on an internet site.

I've addressed this before. There is absolutely no similarity between SD and KC's front office situation with Rooker and the Twins'. After drafting and developing him for 5 years in their system the team who should have known Rooker inside and out thought he was trash. The Twins' actions ruined Rooker's reputation so it's natural other teams would view Rooker with a ton of skepticism.

Rooker owned a wRC+ 97 with the Twins in his SSS of just 234 PA, and apart from his sporadic April plate appearances in 2021, he was above average at the plate, and his xwOBA in 2021 was far higher than actual (xwOBA .341 in 2021, which translates to a wRC+ 130ish). Rooker was "chasing sliders" like every other hitter in baseball, and that's why pitchers throw sliders. That said, Rooker was +1.6 vs. Sliders in 2020 and +0.2 vs. sliders in 2021 according to Fangraphs. Like most arguments against Rooker, it doesn't hold up to scrutiny. For whatever reason, the bizarre inability to accept Falvey's front office (or the casual fans here) made a colossal error in Rooker's case is baffling to me.

Honestly, if I were Royce Lewis, I'd probably be hoping for a trade at this point. He wants to play SS, but Correa is now entrenched with Lewis pushed further down the depth chart. The Twins coaches can't seem to help Lewis improve, and he's being shifted around the diamond in favor of players with lower ceilings. Lewis has fair reason to be angry in my opinion. Then again, Falvey's front office has a history of alienating their top young players (Berrios, Buxton). Plouffe has been openly critical of the Twins' coaches and how the team handled Royce Lewis last year, and I agree with him.

I'm looking forward to seeing how Keaschall performs in AA/AAA next year. Not sure where the Twins will start him off since he's kind of in that mid range of plate appearances at AA. A 1/2 season or so overall. His bat is good, but it's not like it was truly elite there, even relative to other top prospects. If we look at wRC+, Keaschall's 138 ranks: 46th in AA overall 36th under age 25 (the top prospects) 22nd under age 23 (the elite prospects) 13th under age 22 (the elite high school prospects or his direct his peers) Keaschall's power is the question mark. He simply didn't have much in the way of XBH, and while he's talking about adding bulk under the idea it will make him better, he's only 5lbs lighter than 65+ grade power Byron Buxton. If he wants power, he should adjust his swing mechanics. Every pound Keaschall packs on at this point begins to push him off further off 2B where it's uncommon to see a good defender at 200+lbs. Pushing himself to positions typically reliant on ISO like 1B/3B/LF will mean his bat has to play up even more. Keaschall doens't really have the arm for RF, and doesn't have the speed for CF. Maybe a better version of Jose Miranda as Keaschall's projectable ceiling at this point?

I don't see much reason the Twins would covet Tena. Minnesota doesn't need another left handed hitter, and his hitting at the MLB level hasn't been impressive, though he's obviously not yet in his prime. Cherry picking his time with Washington, and only his time at the MLB level presents a better picture of his performance than what he's demonstrated as a whole, and it conveniently excludes his awful performance at the Nationals' AAA club. Overall last year Tena hit .267/.298/.354 OPS .652 wRC+ 83 in 168 PA, though there is reason to suspect his bat has a fair amount of ceiling left based on his age and his career performances at AAA. Tena's "sure glove" isn't reflected in his poor error rate that tanked his overall metrics at the only position he had slightly significant playing time which was 3B with just 299 innings last year. Tena's -3.3 ErrR depressed his stats across the board returning -5 OAA, -3 DRS, and -13.8 UZR/150 at third. His range metric wasn't good either, leading to a rough performance at SS in a teeny tiny sample size. Tena's a work in progress and there is some ceiling there, but there's nothing more to like about him than the Twins already have in Brooks Lee, who is a switch hitter (in name anyway).

The Twins' bullpen was solid last year. We saw a repeat of 2022 where Baldelli wouldn't give his starters more than 4-5 innings, then went to an already worn down bullpen that needed to be near perfect since the offense couldn't plate runs. The Twins were the 5th best in all of baseball with only 5 blown saves in August/September despite being asked to pitch the 4th most innings. The problem was the rotation and hitting, not the bullpen, though Falvey's failure to acquire the lefty the Twins needed so badly with Funderburk and Thielbar's devastatingly poor performances shoulders some blame, too. The Twins are in a payroll crunch which is nearing crisis levels. Depth is not something the team can afford anywhere, to be honest. Any major injuries in spring training might tank the season before it even begins.

Yeah, it is interesting how Nathan got only 4.3% of the BWAA vote dropping off immediately when Wagner, who has less than a 2 bWAR advantage over Nathan got 51.0% that year. Relievers have a really tough row to hoe.

Yeah, I get it. It gets super complex to really evaluate historical trades. WAR is a component, as is compensation rates, and then what about net present value? Is trading a 2.0 WAR asset and seeing no value for 5 years, when the player you acquire produces 2.0 WAR an equal exchange? How do you quantify the value of time where you get nothing? Is it fair to use a static scale on that or to apply a curved scale based on team needs or projections? What about trades that lead to trades which lead to further trades? Liriano led to Escobar which led to Alcala like a huge tree of transactions. You can literally spend hours and hours trying to figure out a formula, and no matter which formula you choose, it will be flawed. I think the baseline should probably look at team controlled years to current. Looking at production after team control ended is irrelevant (like whatever Ryan Pressly did after 2019 is irrelevant) , but regardless of where the player went, that was production the Twins forfeited. The Twins would still have control over Brent Rooker for 3 years.

I don't know as I agree with the methodology here. Pretty convenient to write off the 7 WAR Rooker generated while he's still under team control and pretend Paddack and Pagan were decently valuable, lol. The Rooker trade was a disaster on par with the Bartlett + Garza trade for Delmon Young.

I didn't believe in Dozier. Year after year I expected him to turn back into a pumpkin. Then, finally in 2017 I decided the track record was undeniable. Whoops. The thing which got to me about Dozier was fly ball distance. He had warning track + 5 foot power to right field. Heck of a career, though!

Rivera got in because he was the best closer in MLB history by a country mile in terms of dominance for how long he played. He could have played for the Milwaukee Brewers and he would have been first ballot. Joe Nathan was just as good during his short peak, and I think the UCL cost him BWAA Cooperstown. Nathan still ranks #7 in JAWS, #10 in saves, #13 in fWAR. He's one of the greatest relievers in history.

I'm surprised Kyle Farmer didn't get 7yrs and $182MM from the Rockies like Kris Bryant. Though ill advised, I think $4.5MM is rather smart for them, haha.

Joe Nathan should have gotten in during the BWAA selection process. Joe Nathan was arguably the best closer in baseball during his peak. Every bit as good as Mariano Rivera. Don't believe me? 2004-2009 (6yrs) Rivera - 440.0 IP, 243 SV, 1.90 ERA, 2.56 FIP, 14.5 fWAR, 21.87 WPA Nathan - 418.2 IP, 246 SV, 1.87 ERA, 2.40 FIP, 14.2 fWAR, 24.00 WPA The UCL injury took Nathan out at the end of his prime a35 season lost, a36 season recovering still. Nathan would have racked up probably 435ish saves had the UCL not failed him, and Nathan didn't get his start in the bullpen until age 28.

Soto is going to need a lot of work. While the article talks about a true 5 pitch mix, I'm not seeing it in the movement. Movement based classification is possibly labeling Soto's poorly thrown sliders as "cutters." Lots and lots of hype for Soto, who throws 95, and doesn't flirt with triple digits at all. Like saying Soto peaked at 98, close to striking range of Jhoan Duran's 105mph peak in 2023!!! I'm not sure all the hype helps readers understand Soto's real projectability much. Right now, he's completely raw, and that's fine. He was a shortstop who transitioned to being a pitcher in high school so that is truly expected. He's got the velocity to be successful already, and he's working on expanding his offerings and getting his mechanics in order. The Twins are clearly intent on maximizing his potential rather than using the tried and true polishing method so that at least says something about what they think they have. In regard to things like BABIP and HR/FB rate, those metrics are often worthless in the low minors. Bad stuff gets walloped, and batted ball data is of poor quality/reliability. "Bad luck" is actually a red flag indicator for "bad stuff" down at the low levels. Pitchers who don't have good stuff never make it to the MLB level so having results be stable alongside MLB averages is mostly expected. I think it's fine to have Soto at #4. The Twins' system is hyper thin, IMHO. A few really high end prospects (Jenkins, Rodriguez, Keaschall) and then a bunch of mid level guys who are largely interchangeable with each other due to low ceilings or high injury or positional change risk.

Your opinion of his ceiling is just a lot higher than mine I expect.

Joe Ryan's velo didn't change much the first 3 seasons. In 2021, you're dealing with a SSS. Looking at his average heater, it peaked at over 92mph for one of his starts. Ryan has typically started the season out of the gate with a little more heat, losing a tick as the season wears on. He did add velo last year, and his fastball did improve in expected outcomes marginally from 2023's xwOBA .274 to 2024's xwOBA .266. He also suffered his first significant shoulder/arm strain, though I have no idea if it was related to throwing harder. That said, Ryan has settled into that 50% fastball category for a good reason, and that's because each quality pitch makes other pitches in the repertoire better. They work as a team. Joe Ryan was a back end rotation guy with 3 viable pitches. He's worked to adjust his options (like many other MLB pitchers), and now that Ryan has more viable options, he doesn't have to rely purely on throwing the most physically demanding pitch.