bean5302

I continue to see this narrative that we can just cast off our negative value multi-million dollar players onto other teams because they're "desperate" for one thing or another. There are plenty of fringe MLB caliber reclamation projects with a higher likelihood of success than a guy like Dobnak, and those reclamation projects will be cheaper, too. Colorado is on record as wanting to drop payroll, and they were so desperate for pitching, they passed on grabbing Dobnak off waivers multiple times last year, along with 28 other teams. I don't think Dobnak is any better than Dallas Keuchel or Noah Syndergaard, both of whom are available for a MiLB deal. There is no reason to grab Dobnak at $3MM because of desperation.

You keep using that word... I do not think it means what you think it means. Cherry picking is intentionally selecting only data set(s) which are beneficial to an argument. I arbitrarily chose rounds 1-5 as it feels like a fair cutoff for upper round selections where you might expect to find good talent. The results would be similar if I chose rounds 1-3 or rounds 1-7 or all rounds, except it's hardly fair to hold late round lottery ticket selections against the front office as failures.

In my offseason plan, published before the "You're the GM" series came out, I tendered Tonkin. In fact, I definitely take him over Topa, who is another injury plagued possible one year wonder. Tonkin is a solid, durable innings eater who is cheap. When you've got Alcala, Moran, Stewart and Canterino on the roster, a durable middle innings bullpen arm is valuable. Teams have trusted Tonkin to pitch 160 innings of relief the past 2 years with a majority of his deployments being over 1.0 innings. When you've got Rocco "Quick Hook" aka "Broken Macro" Baldelli in the dugout, a reliever who is actually good at walking to the bump more than once per game is true asset.

He's going to get an MLB offer for at least his arb value.

No chance with BWAA. A strong new class will drop Hunter off the voting soon. Hunter was good, but not great. While he was a 5x All Star, Hunter made a couple of those as a good player on terrible teams. He might get in as part of the veterans committee, but not through writer votes, and the consistent borderline drop off voting record shows that (9.5% first year dropping to 7.3% last year with a low of nearly dropping off at 5.3% in 2022) Hunter's case with the veterans committee is a bit more complex because of his personal reputation and ties to players, but he lacks an MVP or a season which was worthy of an MVP or a great peak, unlike a guy like Fred McGriff. As WAR becomes more important, it'll stand out that Hunter had only 1 season in his 19 year career where he finished top 10 in WAR, and that was an 8th place finish in 2012 with 5.4. Hunter also wasn't a part of any WS appearance teams, and doesn't have any signature moments like Hall of Pretty Good/Stat Accumulators Jack Morris' WS Game 7 with the Twins in 1991. Personally, I think 60 WAR should be an automatic, though in recent years that 60 WAR number has become an insane base line minimum for a lot of people under the "accumulator" argument.

Comparisons to other players like Wallner are difficult. Wallner was drafted in 2019 and started off faster than Winokur before the shutdown season of 2020. That said, Wallner's plate discipline was not projectable to a potential MLB roster spot after the 2021 season in A+, and the Twins made sure Wallner knew it. A major shift in plate discipline needed to take place for 2025's likely starting RF needed to take place, and Wallner made that enormous shift in 2022 to revitalize his prospect potential. Winokur needs to make a similar change sooner than later if he wants to remain a legitimate prospect. Some good news is that Winokur finished the season (8/1+) stronger than he started it, just like you'd hope. .264/.319/.527 OPS .847 wRC+ 136, 7.6% BB, 26.9% K, .310 BABIP I don't consider the Twins' system to be very deep right now so Winokur at #7 vs 15 is pretty irrelevant. He's a long shot until his plate discipline improves. The swinging strike rate and pop-up rates being what they are in A-Ball is very concerning. Winokur should start next season in Cedar Rapids, and it's likely a feast or famine in terms of prospect rank based on what he can do there.

Bailey Ober is the only starter the Twins have drafted and developed who has not only made it to the majors, but has also established himself. Aside from that, here are the round 1-5 pitchers selected by the Twins. Rotation misses 2017 Landon Leach 2017 Blayne Enlow 2017 Charlie Barnes 2018 Cole Sands 2019 Matt Canterino (Traded away) 2021 Steve Hajjar Doesn't look good 2023 Tanner Hall 2023 Dylan Questad Rotation Hopefuls on Track 2020 Marco Raya (Traded away) 2021 Chase Petty 2021 Christian MacLeod 2022 Connor Prielipp 2022 Andrew Morris 2023 Charlee Soto Promising (Traded away) 2021 Cade Povich Established Nobody

The Twins are for sale, the front office, manager and coaches are in lame duck status, the team failed to make the playoffs last year, the ownership has cut payroll, and attendance is poor. An elite international free agent is far more likely to sign with a team where he'll know the people he's working with in 6 months.

I'd agree the team probably hasn't improved, but 73-78 win team is way lower than projections based on WAR. It'd probably take injuries to Lopez, Correa and a couple others to flop that hard.

Since I didn't see a final roster in the post: C - Ryan Jeffers 1B - Jose Miranda 2B - Royce Lewis 3B - Brooks Lee SS - Carlos Correa LF - Trevor Larnach CF - Byron Buxton RF - Matt Wallner DH - Donovan Solano BC - Jair Camargo UI/UO - Brendan Donovan UO - Austin Martin UO - DeShawn Keirsey AAA Depth - Edouard Julien, Payton Eeles, Emmanuel Rodriguez Rotation? SP1 - Pablo Lopez SP2 - Joe Ryan SP3 - Bailey Ober SP4 - Simeon Woods Richardson SP5 - David Festa AAA Depth - Zebby Matthews, Andrew Morris, Marco Raya Bullpen BP1 - Jhoan Duran BP2 - Griffin Jax BP3 - Brock Stewart BP4 - Justin Topa BP5 - Ronny Henriquez BP6 - Kody Funderburk BP7 - Scott Alexander BP8 - Jorge Alcala AAA Depth - Cole Sands, Louie Varland, Matt Canterino In the scenario the Twins non-tender Willi Castro or trade him for something not relevant to the roster. Vazquez and Paddack are moved with no relevant return by covering half their salaries. All in all, I think this is probably an 84-85 win team.

Ah, Correa is going to be the Twins shortstop for the foreseeable future. He's got 4 guaranteed years left on his contract, and he just turned 30. I'd be surprised if he moved off SS before that time period was up (a33 season). No idea who the backup is at this point. The Twins are solidly incompetent when it comes to choosing defensive positions and coaching defense.

Every single team in baseball has salary limitations, and every team in baseball has done "salary dumps" to improve. The Yankees dumped Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela on the Twins to justify the cost of the Donaldson contract for example. Camargo's .212/.290/.403 wRC+ 76 experience in AAA last year says he has quite a bit left to prove. Projection models suggest .203/.258/.346 at the MLB level for a wRC+ 70. Vazquez bat, but with a questionable glove. He's emergency depth the Twins didn't even want to play when they had to call him up. I think you're right about finding a rebound MiLB contract guy as depth like a Max Stassi.

Like it or not, Ryan Jeffers is a successful, veteran MLB catcher who has tried a number of different approaches behind the plate with a glove or next to it with a bat. The kind of player serious young guys seek out based on your suggestion. Jeffers worked on his game and sought the help of Twins coaches like Conger (defense) and Popkins (offense) to improve weaknesses in his game. He didn't just do things randomly on his own and ignore the Twins' front office and coaches. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5295401/2024/02/24/twins-catcher-ryan-jeffers/ The new theory on setting up middle-middle is a Twins philosophy which Ryan Jeffers adopted because he's willing to try new things. Vazquez doesn't have to drop as low as Jeffers to get low strike calls because he's already super short. That allows Vazquez the opportunity to stand taller. He can't teach height.

I have never subscribed to the "mentor" concept. It's always felt as some excuse to keep a non-quantifiable value player people personally like on the roster. Vazquez isn't any better than Jeffers at controlling the run game or game calling or even catcher framing as recently as 2022. Vazquez has a different receiving position than Jeffers and he's much shorter than Jeffers (or likely any other catcher replacing him). Vazquez can't mentor players to be 5'8" tall so they get more strike calls in certain areas, and the Twins had Jeffers use a different spot technique in the hopes of getting more strikes. The techniques Vazquez uses are going to be overruled by the Twins' coaching staff and front office's preferences and the new catchers 3-5 years of development. Joe Mauer didn't teach Drew Butera how to hit or Josmil Pinto how to catch.

That's probably directly from MLBTR's free agent predictions. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/2024-25-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

Christian Vazquez $10MM AAV. 2024 = +0.8 fWAR, -0.2 bWAR Travis d'Arnaud $6MM AAV. 2024 = +1.8 fWAR, +1.1 bWAR Austin Hedges $4MM AAV. 2024 = +0.4 fWAR, -0.6 bWAR Yasmani Grandal FA. 2024 = +1.4 fWAR, +0.6 bWAR James McCann FA. 2024 = +0.2 fWAR, +0.8 bWAR Danny Jensen FA. 2024 = +0.5 fWAR, +0.7 bWAR Gary Sanchez FA. 2024 = +0.3 fWAR, +0.2 bWAR (2023 = +1.6 fWAR, +1.7 bWAR) Luke Maile FA. 2024 was terrible in 154 PA. 2023 = +0.4 fWAR, +0.9 bWAR The thing about Vazquez is he's not better than a number of other options, and the free agents who have signed are making half as much. Drier than the Sahara (in terms of value) is applicable to Vazquez himself. The guys being dismissed in this article (Grandal and Sanchez) are substantially better than Vazquez. Vazquez is a bad MLB player with a sizable salary. He does provide some floor in that he's solid defensively and durable, but I think it's going to cost the Twins eating at least $5MM of his salary or a significant prospect to move him. Not sure it makes sense unless the Twins are investing in a long term replacement on their roster.

No, and the chances he is able to replace a 4-5 WAR SS (one of the best players in the game) is 1% at best. Correa was the #1 overall draft selection in 2012 and arguably the best shortstop in MLB just a few years later. Culpepper struggled at the plate in A+ ball last year and his fielding is probably middle of the road at best. 25% shot making MLB at all right now.

I'm interested to know why the Twins like Winkel so much? He'll be 25, he struggled at the plate (wRC+ 65) due in large part to plate discipline 6.4% BB, 30.3% K, couldn't catch base runners and he allowed 5 passed balls in just 576 innings. I'd be surprised if the Twins couldn't find a better veteran option on a MiLB deal, but maybe I'm missing something?

@old nurse caught something I somehow totally overlooked. The trade isn't Jhoan Duran + Willi Castro for Dalton Rushing the trade is Jhoan Duran + Willi Castro for Dalton Rushing and Alex Vesia (excellent results lefty reliever) Vesia and Castro are pretty much a wash so that winds up essentially being Duran for Rushing directly. I don't think there's a chance the Dodgers do that. I didn't mention it earlier because the "C grade prospect" is a very gray term, but what I consider a "C grade prospect" probably isn't going to be able to bury the negative equity in Paddack or Vazquez. The Padres trade for Phil Hughes is a good example. The Twins still ate $5MM of Hughes' 2019 salary and threw in a Comp B pick to move him. If you want to move dollars off the books this year with all the RSN issues, I think for Vazquez, you might be talking a top 15ish prospect like Ricardo Olivar or Cory Lewis or something of that nature. Paddack is going to require a little less, but it's not going to be a non-prospect. At least in my opinion.

Big payment for Rushing, but I can see the logic in it. With Graterol slated to miss a lot of next year after shoulder surgery, and the Dodgers needing some versatility, I think the move works for them, too. I think the bullpen will suffer pretty hard from the move, in productivity and depth, though. I wouldn't be willing to bet on Grichuk being much better than Manny Margot, to be honest. A career wRC+ 102 guy after having the best expected metrics of his entire career at age 32. There's a reason you can get him at $5.5MM AAV on a short contract. Walker, at age 34-36 is a signing I can't get behind at all. Way, way too much money is tied up long term for a team with a ton of pre-arb and arb eligible players, and an aging Walker likely in decline makes a very bad situation far worse. $37MM + $22MM + $15MM + $20MM = $94MM of a $135MM payroll tied up in 4 guys with $90MM on the books for them in 2026 when tons of guys will be making way more. Henriquez is out of options so you can't stash him in AAA, though I think he's fairly interchangeable with Varland, who does have an option. I'm also skeptical the Pohlad family is interested in a sales pitch to expand payroll. They've checked out and are ready to move on. From my many years of experience working directly with executives and corporate investment, it doesn't follow normal business practice. I'd suspect any additional spending is considered profit reduction and the Pohlad's are just looking to avoid cutting the payroll significantly to avoid blowback. Assuming the Pohlad's are on board with the expanded payroll, I'd think this is a 88-89 win team with a very good shot at the playoffs provided the Twins get lucky with bullpen health. This is also a team where I don't think there's a snowball's chance at addressing any injury depth issues at the deadline in general.

Oh, I know, and I get it. The overall sentiment on this site has been pretty critical and dismissive of Rooker since 2021. Much more negative than I even felt from from what I considered bizarre detractors of Wallner. I think it's fair to say there were a lot of commenters and writers who didn't even view Rooker as a 6.5 out of 10, more like a 4 out of 10, but I was using your comment as a surrogate for general sentiment. All teams do miss, but to miss that badly with that many signs should be a serious mark. I used an example of Nomar Mazara when evaluating Alex Kirilloff recently. The Rangers and White Sox gave Mazara opportunity after opportunity, the same with the Twins and Kirilloff. You have to do it when you have guys which rank up quick, destroy upper minors pitching and have significant flashes of plus value at the MLB level. The Twins literally gave a29-a31 Kyle Garlick more opportunity (299 PA) than a25-a26 Rooker (234 PA).

I think that's a good plan. I wouldn't even mind a straight 4 year deal at like $28MM or something since Jeffers showed how he was able to adjust his plate approach to radically reduce the K rate over the past few years. Jeffers is a starting caliber catcher so he's a great backup, and he's been pretty durable. I also like that his value isn't coming from pitch framing inflation. I would not want to give a pitch framer specialist a long term deal with the threat of robo umps.

Vazquez was worth -0.3 bWAR in 2023 and -0.2 bWAR in 2024; he was worth 0.9 fWAR and 0.8 fWAR in those years, respectively. If we average it all out, Vazquez was worth an average of 0.6 WAR per season over the past two years. Stallings was worth -0.6 bWAR in 2023 and +1.8 bWAR in 2024; he was worth -0.4 fWAR and +0.9 fWAR respectively. Averaging that out, +0.9 WAR per year. He was better than Vazquez. It'd be awfully hard to find a catcher worse than Vazquez, to be honest.

Pretty detailed plan. I'd expect about 86-87 wins out of that team which is an improvement of a couple wins over current and it carries a decent chance at the playoffs as a WC team. Not sure in the final locations of a couple guys, but it's not relevant since you're not getting anything of note back for departing players.

Exactly, and it makes 2026 look even worse. Actually, maybe not. I don't view Vazquez as a viable MLB caliber catcher anyway.