bean5302

No, it's not TBD whether or not Brooks Lee is one of the slowest runners in all of MLB. It's virtual fact because we know his sprint speeds, he wasn't suffering from a lower body injury, and his scouting reports line up with the results. He's literally one of the worst runners in all of MLB. Trevor Larnach can literally outrun Brooks Lee based on published 90ft splits and sprint speed, and the only thing which makes Larnach passable in LF is great instincts. No, it's not TBD whether or not Brooks Lee has a strong arm. He doesn't. The scouting reports are clear he makes accurate throws, but his arm was not a true plus tool. The published throwing data on Lee puts his avg/max throwing 82/83mph far below average for a SS 85/90mph or a 3B 84/87mph, but probably average or maybe a tick over for a 2B 77/85mph. Brooks Lee struggled with both sinking and 4 seam fastballs last year. That's an indisputable fact. He had slow bat speed vs. the average major league baseball player, especially when he's swinging from the right side. That's an indisputable fact. It's virtually indisputable that MLB pitchers will challenge guys with fastballs until a player proves they can hit them as it's a time proven approach against rookies and young hitters. Brooks Lee is not a viable starter unless he can get close to league average on base percentage, and that's like 60pts higher than it was last year. These things are not TBD.

If they're going to struggle moving Paddack, moving Dobnak as well will be a huge effort. Both have negative value.

Hard to get innings out of guys who were just successfully returning from TJ (deGrom and Mahle) and rookies before their call up. Context matters.

The question was How many teams can afford to have a third catcher on their roster all year? The answer to that question is any team not planning to compete, which is "plenty." Aside from that, Olivar is not strictly a catcher.

The Rangers have Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle, Jon Gray, Cody Bradford and Kumar Rocker so I wouldn't think they'd be desperate. Tyrone Taylor is a better fit since he's cheaper and a league average-ish bat despite entering his a31 season. I didn't think the Mets would be interested in keeping Paddack in a rotation spot or using him as a reliever. The Mets aren't bargain bin shoppers, and I couldn't find an starter the Twins could part with where the Mets would legitimately be interested, and where the Twins would actually get something we needed back in my offseason plan. I was trying to figure out a way to fit Tyrone Taylor into the Twins' plans, and I wanted Brandon Sproat for high end potential. Just couldn't make it work with the other needs, depth and stability.

Plenty. The ones who are rebuilding.

Williams elected MiLB free agency on 11/4. His likelihood of returning to the Twins is probably high, but any team could sign him. He isn't likely to hit well at the MLB level even though he's been a tick above league average at AAA the past couple years, it comes with a 32% K rate for the 27 year old. Defensively, Williams has gotten serviceable levels of controlling the run game and he doesn't allow passed balls. He's probably okay there. When it comes to catcher framing, who knows? He's basically a minor league journeyman, but with the Twins' terrible depth right now at catcher, it's possible Williams could get a look. Steamer projects .189/.277/.344 OPS .621 wRC+ 77, which is... occasionally playable in a pretty desperate catching situation so Williams could be Rule 5 selected or it's possible the Twins could bring him back, but at age 28 next year, having never been on the 40 man, he's far from typical prospect status. Winkel had more consistent success coming up through the minors than Williams, but last year Williams had the far superior bat. Winkel's .228/.279/.362 OPS .642 amounted to wRC+ 65 at AAA. Like Williams, Winkel also struck out north of 30% of the time, but he didn't take walks to help offset. Winkel also needs a lot of work defensively. He was unable to control the run game, and he had 5 passed balls last year. I don't think of Winkel as more than MiLB roster filler right now.

I wouldn't expect Correa would want to bail. The Twins had Correa's back the last 2 years, he has good teammates, and a decent structure of a competitive team around him. So the owner is "exploring" a sale. Same manager, same GM, not rebuilding and the AL Central still doesn't feature any expected truly dominant teams. Payroll isn't expected to drop from last year, and there are no signs of a rebuild happening. Unless the Twins have told Correa they're not planning to compete, I doubt he has a good reason to leave the place where he just came begging to sign.

As the article says, mostly because free agency hasn't started seeing signings and the Twins don't have a lot of outgoing free agents of projected value. I still think there are some holes and I spent quite a few hours trying to find good options and matches to improve the team.

What makes people think this? I'm quite serious when I ask. Lets ignore the 6 year veteran's innings. Here are his actual results on the mound in ERA. 2019 - 3.33 <-- young pitcher with upside! This guy could be great! 2020 - 4.73 <--- promising young pitcher got hurt, but it happens 2021 - 5.07 <--- it's just a small sample size! 2022 - 4.03 <--- okay so there might be a ceiling here. 2023 - 5.40 <--- huh, I thought he was better than this 2024 - 4.99 <--- oh, this is who he is. He's a back end rotation arm with no upside. Kyle Gibson-esque, but without the durability. BaseballTradeValues has Paddack as -1.9 in trade value. In my offseason plan, I have the Twins eating $3.0MM and trading him to the Orioles to be a part of their early season rotation depth in exchange for the Twins getting back a depth reliever with upside.

His athletic limitations are not something you would expect improvement upon, and they are consistent with his pre-draft scouting reports saying he would be relying on instincts, smooth motion and good hands for his defensive value. He was a bat first guy, mostly based on a scouted elite hit tool. Few people thought Lee could stick at SS because of his limited range and the lack of a true plus arm. There is no angst. There is a recognition of who Brooks Lee is as a player, and where he could excel. 2B/3B are the best options for Lee, though it would be better if Lee had a stronger arm for 3B. OF is off the table. SS is probably a stretch. His lack of power means 1B/DH are tough options as well, just like Jose Miranda's ceiling at 1B is limited without more power or better plate discipline. That's reality. When it comes to Lee's value as a starter, he is going to need to hit, and he's going to need to take walks. If he can't get his on base percentage up 60pts, his ceiling is going to be very limited. His OBP isn't going to improve unless he can figure out how to catch up to MLB fastballs.

The first step in any offseason plan is identifying the needs and the wants for the organization. The only real needs are a payroll of $130MM or less, and a full 26 man roster with 13 or more position players to meet MLB rules. While ownership is on record saying they don’t expect to cut payroll further or that they expect payroll to remain similar, Falvey is also on more recent record making it about as clear as he possibly could last year’s $130MM mark the Twins opened with is the ceiling. “Similar” means close to, but definitely not over. Say $125-130MM? This means salary relief is an absolute need since the Twins are already about $140MM with the guys they control. Onto the critical “wants” which somebody might expect to have a major impact on team performance. It’s similar to last year, but unlike 2023-2024’s offseason, that 2nd top of the rotation pitcher isn’t even worth talking about. 1. Center Fielder – Buxton cannot be the only potential everyday center fielder on the roster. 2. Infielder(s) – Carlos Santana’s a free agent, and the Twins got nothing from 2B last year. On to the major holes the Twins would be wise to address. 3. Designated Hitter – The Twins have precious few options to fill in a DH role. 4. Lefty Reliever – Thielbar’s on the way out and Funderburk looked rough. 5. Catcher – It’d be nice if the Twins had a catcher who could both hit the ball and field. Anything else feels like it’d be a pipe dream to hope for as the Twins are going to be limited in free agency, and I feel the Pohlads must have locked the prospect pipeline down based on recent season moves/non-moves by the front office. The only way the Twins open things up in free agency is if they move Correa, and I don’t see that as a likely scenario at all. It’s time to get real “creative” as Falvey will need to do. Non-tender Kyle Farmer and Manuel Margot. Those already happened, and they were no doubters anyway. Kepler and Santana are free agents and off the books. Even so, we’re still starting over the payroll limit with team controlled players by about $10MM at $140MMish. Step 1) The Twins agree with the Mariners to trade Trevor Larnach and sign/trade Justin Topa back to Seattle for Victor Robles. Robles signed a team friendly 2 year contract with a club option with the Mariners, and Robles has made it look like a great move. Robles had a great season with Seattle to build on his 2023 in Washington, which is pretty unexpected given Robles’ rough track record. The expected values at the plate throw a healthy dose of water onto the real .307/.381/.433 OPS .814 wRC+ 141 results from the 27 year old, but by expected metrics, he was still an above average hitter. Think .260/.340/.400 OPS .740 wRC+ 120ish. Not too far above Larnach’s numbers, but Robles is a righty who can cover center field, though he's a bit stretched there. Btw, just you try to find a right handed outfielder who isn’t a black hole at the plate or in the field in MLB these days. So why would the Mariners make this move? Unlike the Twins, the Mariners could really benefit from an extra lefty bat without sacrificing years of control. Also, it’s bad news for them to rely upon players who hit all home runs in Seattle’s cavernous stadium (see Garver, Mitch). Larnach’s a lefty bat who has a nice line drive output swing the Mariners could really use, Larnach is a bit cheaper. On the Topa side, Seattle’s bullpen is in disarray this offseason. The inclusion of Topa balances out Robles’ value, and Seattle is obviously comfortable with the pitcher as Topa has history there including a really solid 2023. Viewing this transaction from BaseballTradeValues perspective Larnach +14.5 & Topa +9.8 (don’t ask me, man) 24.3 total offset Robles’ 22.2 nicely. Topa’s easily exchangeable with other middle value bullpen options so he’s just a name/value to make sense. Step 2) The Twins re-sign Willi Castro. You can debate what position you want Castro to play, but with a legitimate potential CF on the roster, Castro can hopefully focus on the infield slots. Lee was worse than rough at the plate. The .221/.265/.320 OPS .585 wRC+ 62 performance made Christian Vazquez look solid, and with all the flak he took, Julien’s .199/.292/.323 OPS .616 wRC+ 80 performance enjoyed advantages in both a substantial advantage in OBP and even a little SLG over Lee. Neither Lee nor Julien can be relied upon as an everyday infielder in 2025 based on how they played. Willi Castro’s presence makes a massive change to the injury protection depth, and the baseline of the infield’s expected performance. Step 3) So we’ve added about $7MM to the salary so far. Seems fine… and here’s where the Twins double that! The Twins really could use a legitimate DH, and J.D. Martinez is aging, but he still ripped off a lot of high exit velocities last year. His .235/.320/.406 OPS .725 wRC+ 108 season belied his luck, and that gets the 37 year old slugger down into the $7MM one year contract range which some creative rostering can handle. His xwOBA was nearly 40pts above his actual performance which says he should have hit .260/.355/.485 OPS .840ish wRC+ 130 or so, and traditionally, Martinez has been pretty close in expected/actual numbers. Not quite the elite prime bat he was, but still highly valuable. Martinez would add that right-handed power bat the Twins have really been missing since Cruz’s departure. Step 4) Okay, so we’re wayyyyyy over budget now. Great! Time to clear some space and take care of the catcher position where the Twins desperately need a long term solution, not just a band-aid. How will the Twins afford this one? Pablo Lopez. We can’t give up a top end starter though! The much loved starter and ace of the team’s $22MM contract isn’t as crippling as Correa’s, but it’s exceptionally easy to move. Lopez is viewed as a front-end starter by many teams and analysts across the sport, and he comes with 3 years of team friendly team control. Baseballtradevalues says +37.4, and that’s big-time value which can move some scales. But it’s not like the Twins can cast off their best pitcher and expect to be competitive. Enter the Diamondbacks. I talked about this trade already. Zac Gallen is their franchise pitcher just like Lopez is for the Twins, but Gallen is on borrowed time. He’s gone at the end of the year, and this close to free agency with the RSN issue in full force for the Diamondbacks, they just aren’t going to be able to get to that 7yrs+ $200MM+ contract extension to keep Gallen from free agency. Arizona is in the middle of their competitive window, and they can’t afford to have it wiped out so soon. In case you're not familiar with Gallen, he'll be in his age 29 season next year and has a career 3.24 ERA, 3.45 FIP. He's a consistent 4-5 WAR legitimate universally accepted ace. He lost a bunch of time with a strained hammy last year, but has been otherwise very durable. Lopez keeps their window open for 2 more years than Gallen would, and at a price point where AZ can still put food on the table. The Twins have starter prospects, and maybe some more money soon with an owner change. The Diamondbacks have neither so they’re really in a tough spot for future rotation options. Those extra 2 years of team control for Lopez make all the difference and get the Twins a solid, young, cost-controlled catcher named Gabriel Moreno. Moreno is a high on base, high contact rate hitter with a little pop who will only be 25 next year. A career .280/.347/.393 OPS .740 wRC+ 105 hitter, Moreno put together a solid .266/.353/.380 OPS .734 wRC+ 107 line again last year. On top of that, Moreno provides solid defense catching about 30% of base runners, and posting neutral framing numbers (if you believe in that stat). DRS has Morneo at +32, and FRV at +13. BaseballSavant had Moreno at or above average across the board defensively last year with 51 block, stealing 79, framing 74, and a fast pop time. The pre-arb catcher will be entering his prime as a shield against potential decline as well. The Diamondbacks already have catching depth with legit potential plus catching prospect Adrian Del Castillo split between MLB/AAA last year. The Twins save $7MM in this transaction. As far as BaseballTradeValues views it? Lopez +37.4 offsets Gallen +19.5 & Moreno 16.6 (total 36.1). Step 5) Now that we have a solid 1-2 punch at catcher, Vazquez becomes a piece the Twins can legitimately look at trading, but they’re not going to be able to offload his entire $10MM contract. The Tampa Bay Rays need a catcher, and they’re going to be looking for a defensively minded, right-handed option to pair with Ben Rortvedt, but on the cheap. The Twins need a lefty bullpen arm with some potential. Let’s make a deal. The Twins send Vazquez and $5MM to the always frugal Tampa Bay Rays who return lefty relief fireballer Mason Montgomery. Montgomery struggled with walks in AAA, but the reliever prospect earned a call up in September at age 24. Montgomery can touch triple digits, but he sits at 97-98mph with his fastball and 88-89mph with the potential wipeout slider. Montgomery is just a 2 pitch guy who gives up a lot of fly balls, and movement isn’t special on either, but the velo makes his stuff dangerous and Stuff+ grades the FB at 150 (75ish grade) and the slider at 110 (55ish grade) in limited sample data. His velo is offset by the limited pitch options and control issues. Still, he’s got potential, and he’s left-handed so that’s why the Twins eat the $5MM. BaseballTradeValues isn’t seemingly great with unknown/mid/low level prospects or catchers. I think Vazquez is worth a little more than BTV does at Vazquez -7.8 + 5.0, and I’d think Montgomery is worth a bit more than his 2.4. I think it’s fair. Step 6) Remember that payroll “need” thing? We’re still not there yet. Chris Paddack isn’t going to be moved anywhere at full price, but for a good deal, Paddack would be valuable to a team needing rotation depth, especially early in the season. The Twins eat $3MM of Paddack’s salary getting him down to $4.5MM to box him up for shipment. With the Baltimore Orioles hoping to get a couple starters back during the year, Paddack is great early year insurance at a price that doesn’t hurt their other pursuits. In return, the Twins beg for scraps and get righty reliever Colin Selby. Colin Selby will be 27 next year so he’s not a real “prospect,” but Baltimore did call him up towards the end of the year, including a game against the Twins. He appears to have added a 4 seamer to his sinker/slider/curve options this past year, though the 4 seamer grades out poorly in Stuff+. Fastball 80 (40ish grade), Sinker 120 (60ish grade), Slider 141 (70ish grade), Curve 144 (70ish grade). His velo can touch 97, but it’s inconsistent ranging from 93-97 whereas the breaking stuff is more reliable with the Slider at 87-89 and the curve at 82-84. While the stuff is there, the control is not, and Selby struggles to locate his pitches. Selby’s had some success at AAA, but he also gave up a lot of homers and tons of walks thanks to those control issues. Feels a lot like Sim... Maybe the Twins can address the issues a little? He’s only got 1 option left, but it feels like the righty is solid bullpen depth at least. BaseballTradeValues thinks Paddack is -1.6 + 3.0 vs. the Selby at 1.4 at the beginning of 2024. I don’t have a subscription, and nobody’s proposing trades for him, so I can’t tell you for sure what it is today… except, low. All said and done, here’s how the roster construction looks now. Salary $MM Position First Last Control Options Arb Status 0.8 C Gabriel Moreno 4yrs 0 Pre-Arb 0.8 1B Jose Miranda 4yrs 0 Pre-Arb 6.2 2B Willi Castro 1yr 0 Arb 3 37.0 SS Carlos Correa 8yrs 0 N/A 2.3 3B Royce Lewis 4yrs 2 Arb 1 4.8 LF Victor Robles 2yrs 0 N/A 15.0 CF Byron Buxton 4yrs 0 N/A 0.8 RF Matt Wallner 5yrs 1 Pre-Arb 7.0 DH J.D. Martinez 1yr 0 N/A 4.7 BC Ryan Jeffers 2yrs 1 Arb 2 0.8 Util Eddie Julien 5yrs 1 Pre-Arb 0.8 UO Austin Martin 6yrs 2 Pre-Arb 0.8 UI Brooks Lee 6yrs 3 Pre-Arb 14.0 SP1 Zac Gallen 1yr 0 N/A 3.8 SP2 Joe Ryan 3yrs 3 Arb 1 4.3 SP3 Bailey Ober 3yrs 1 Arb 1 0.8 SP4 David Festa 6yrs 3 Pre-Arb 0.8 SP5 Simeon WR 6yrs 1 Pre-Arb 3.7 RP1 Jhoan Duran 3yrs 1 Arb 1 2.6 RP2 Griffin Jax 3yrs 2 Arb 1 1.5 RP3 Jorge Alcala 1yr 2 Arb 2 0.8 RP4 Cole Sands 4yrs 1 Pre-Arb 1.0 RP5 Brock Stewart 3yrs 0 Arb 1 0.8 RP6 Mason Montgomery 6yrs 3 Pre-Arb 1.5 RP7 Michael Tonkin 2yrs 0 Arb 2 0.8 RP8 Ronny Henriquez 6yrs 0 Pre-Arb 118.2 Subtotal (Active Roster Payroll) 3.0 Dead Money Randy Dobnak 1yr 0 N/A 0.3 Dead Money Kyle Farmer N/A N/A N/A 5.0 Retained Christian Vazquez N/A N/A N/A 3.0 Retained Chris Paddack N/A N/A N/A 11.3 Subtotal (Non-Roster Payroll) 129.5 Total Payroll Obviously, I like the overall package since I'm the one who dreamed it up. I like the depth in case anything goes sideways with the outfield or infield, and I think we've got plenty of mid/back rotation ready depth at AAA, though grabbing a veteran on a MiLB contract wouldn't be a bad idea. The rotation should be very strong with Gallen at the front, and hopefully Festa can figure out that curveball he's trying to add to his repertoire as it could potentially turn him into an upper rotation threat, and at least avoid a Sophomore Slump. Defense in the outfield will be better than last year with Robles being a significant upgrade vs. Margot, and depending on how Martin performs, there's potential for Keirsey to be called up since Robles isn't a lefty. Since Baldelli prefers to use Castro as a utility guy, there's plenty of opportunity to move him around provided Julien or Lee get on track. The bullpen is a little more difficult. Tonkin I'm keeping since he's been durable, serviceable and cheap, but his improvements last year gave him some new upside. Henriquez is out of options, and he might be more than the sum of his parts so to speak so I have him on the 26 man over Varland. Montgomery gets the nod over Funderburk. We've got solid (theoretical) depth again in the reliever world with Canterino, Selby, Funderburk, and Varland. That said, there are going to be injuries so it's not like the roster won't shift around. I like this team to win over 90 games, and provided there's even a little luck on health, it could be be a real World Series potential threat. The toughest part of this projection is after 2025, the Twins might find themselves in an even tougher position payroll/needs wise. As for the outgoing guys, if you want to keep track: Retained Salary Position / Departing Player / Reason 5.0 C Christian Vazquez Trade 0.0 1B Carlos Santana Free Agent 0.0 1B/DH Alex Kirilloff Retired 0.0 LF Trevor Larnach Trade 0.0 RF Max Kepler Free Agent 0.0 UO Manuel Margot Decline $12MM Opt 0.3 UI Kyle Farmer Decline $6MM Opt 0.0 SP Pablo Lopez Trade 3.0 SP Chris Paddack Trade 0.0 SP Anthony Desclafani Free Agent 0.0 RP Justin Topa Trade 0.0 RP Caleb Thielbar Free Agent Onto the 40 man plan. Probably less interesting to some folks. The Twins have already outrighted Josh Winder, Yunior Severino, Randy Dobnak, Scott Blewett, and Daniel Duarte. They all cleared waivers, but I believe they’re all technically Rule 5 eligible now. I’d also outright Brent Headrick to clear 40 man space while keeping all other existing 40 man roster players. Headrick is a lefty, but his track record is awfully weak. Add in the injury history, and I just don’t think he’s necessary to protect. I’d add Richardo Olivar, Kala’i Rosario, Christian MacLeod, Travis Adams, and the acquisition from Baltimore, Colin Selby so that sets the additional 14 members of the 40 man roster as: 40 Man Roster Position First Name Last Name Control Options Level Add C Ricardo Olivar 6yrs 3 AA Keep C Jair Camargo 6yrs 2 AAA Keep OF Emmanuel Rodriguez 6yrs 2 AAA Keep OF DaShawn Keirsey 6yrs 3 AAA Keep OF Michael Helman 6yrs 3 AAA Add OF Kala'i Rosario 6yrs 3 AA Keep SP Zebby Matthews 6yrs 3 AAA Add SP Marco Raya 6yrs 3 AAA Add SP Christian MacLeod 6yrs 3 AAA Add SP Travis Adams 6yrs 3 AAA Keep RP Louie Varland 5yrs 1 AAA Keep RP Matt Canterino 6yrs 1 AAA From Baltimore RP Colin Selby 6yrs 2 AAA Keep RP Kody Funderburk 6yrs 3 AAA As for the outgoing space clearing on the 40 man, here is this group. I do think there' a good chance Winder is going to be grabbed if he's rule 5 eligible (I don't understand any potential intricacy), but I don't think anybody else is at risk. Outright/Non Position First Name Last Name Status Options Rule 5 Status Done RP Josh Winder Cleared 0 Eligible Done 1B Junior Severino Cleared 0 Eligible Done RP Scott Blewett Cleared 0 Eligible Done RP Daniel Duarte Cleared 1 Eligible Done RP Randy Dobnak Cleared 0 Eligible Yes SP Brent Headrick 1 Eligible

I think $143MM is way outside the realm of reasonable expectations for the Twins. Falvey has been pretty clear the $130MM figure from opening day last year is almost a hard cap.

Massive overpay for Perkins who is honestly just a defensive replacement guy. Buxton's availability requires a starting caliber player who can cover CF. The best option from the Brewers would be Garrett Mitchell, but Mitchell is a lefty. Even then, I wouldn't be willing to trade Ober or Ryan as part of that deal.

Looking at the roster, you can break it down by expected opening day at player acquision/position. C - Jeffers* 1B - Santana* 2B - Julien 3B - Lewis SS - Correa LF - Wallner CF - Buxton* RF - Kepler DH - Kirilloff UI/UO - Castro* UI - Farmer UO - Margot BC - Vazquez* SP1 - Lopez SP2 - Ryan SP3 - Ober* SP4 - Paddack SP5 - Desclafani BP1 - Duran* BP2 - Stewart BP3 - Jax* BP4 - Thielbar BP5 - Topa BP6 - Okert BP7 - Alcala* BP8 - Jackson *Player performed to expectations. The list is frighteningly short. Whether or not major time on the IL or just plain performance woes, the Twins got much less than expected to absolutely nothing from the majority of their expected opening day roster. The guys who really made a difference and were much more valuable than expected were all guys who didn't and/or weren't expected to make the opening day roster. Trevor Larnach, David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson, Cole Sands, Jose Miranda. Things would have been much worse without those mostly surprise performances.

The argument I find the least compelling is "fans revolt!!!!" since it's probably never been witnessed in the history of baseball. Correa means virtually nothing to the Twins' fans who are going to attend the games. I've posted this before. Attendance went UP after Puckett retired. Attendance went UP after Mauer retired. Attendance went UP after Johan Santana was traded. Fans attend games for the team and the game day experience. The name on the lineup card is utterly irrelevant to attendance. Overall sense of urgency to compete does matter, but again, freeing up $37MM to spend elsewhere could make the Twins more exciting to fans. Goes a long ways towards signing Willy Adames and Blake Snell (not that the Twins would that specific example). Also, a new owner could be in transition before the start of the year, and that new owner (if it's moving that way) would have the ability to influence payroll should they choose to do so.

I think it's pretty obvious Correa has a huge personal component to his contract negotiations. He shunned the Giants and Mets hard after they balked, not even trying to work out any other deal, and then he went directly back to Minnesota and worked with them to come here under terms which were honestly probably less favorable than what he could have gotten from SF or NY. Hard to jump into the head of a player, but if Correa believed the Twins were not competitive and a courting team was competitive, that'd probably matter a lot. Correa isn't the biggest problem though. Finding an interested party with the RSN situation is the problem. A lot of the league is pulling back on payroll, and the big teams could potentially be paying up to $78MM for Correa next year due to the 110% luxury tax ceiling (Yankees, Mets, Dodgers). If teams balk at Correa being worth $37MM, imagine the eyebrows raised at the true cost being $78MM! Then there are teams which consistently operate in the mid/small market zone who wouldn't consider $37MM ever. On top of that, even teams which are good fits there are other major issues. Detroit Tigers have Baez stinking up the place so could they really justify another super pricy veteran SS like Correa? Would a division rival work out a deal to help the Twins?

Scouting reports say Olivar has a weak arm and his catching skills are raw, but at least the front office did shift him away from the 50/50 split moving him to 70% C, 15% DH, 15% LF. He's not a right fielder (weak arm), and the Twins' affiliates have never played him there. Perhaps Falvey has recognized just how poorly he's drafted / developed catchers for the past 5 years? Falvey seems to have a bit of an almost bizarre obsession to develop a dual role catcher (Olivar, '24 draft Diaw, '24 draft Bender). They've now pushed Olivar into as much catching as I think they could, but maybe that's out of desperation after finally recognizing how thin the talent in the Twins' system really is after years and years of Falvey's neglect. Diaw was an incredible long shot at catcher from the beginning, and Bender wasn't really expected to be able to stick at catcher either. Positional flexibility nonsense? Anyway, despite all the positional flexibility (everybody is bad at defense everywhere) philosophy, Falvey never took advantage of the positional flexibility he had at the catcher position. Kyle Farmer was drafted by the Dodgers as a SS, but developed as a catcher, starting games behind the dish for LA, and then Cincinnati after the Dodgers traded him. The Twins never had Kyle Farmer catch, and I always wondered about that. Maybe the Twins' initial interest in Farmer was at least partially under the assumption he could be a backup catcher? Farmer address that at 11:00 in the interview. Farmer does not want to catch, but he'll do it if he absolutely has to. That said, if he's not working out preparing for it, he's not going to be in the physical shape to do the job more than once a week during the season, I wouldn't think. Background on that. In 2012, the Yankees and Reds were both interested in Farmer as catcher, but Farmer didn't want to catch as he was an All American shortstop at Georgia (not at all a catcher) so Farmer didn't sign when the Yankees drafted him. The next year, he says everybody wanted him to catch so he gave in when the Dodgers drafted him. Farmer addresses this starting at 8:45. His first game catching was in the minors... he put the shin guards on backwards LOL.

Considering Brooks Lee has a weak arm and is among the slowest runners in all of MLB, there are going to be serious limits as to where he can play. Any OF position is a no go as Lee doesn't have the speed. 3B/SS isn't ideal because he doesn't have the arm. Lee profiles best as a utility infielder (if he can find a way to get his bat out of the depths) or at 2B.

In actuality, Carlos Correa is not the only good shortstop in MLB, but I do believe he is the most expensive at $37MM next year. If the Twins keep payroll close to where they currently are, that's an enormous amount of capital to reinvest into the team. Also, I disagree Correa is injury prone, and the fact these NY fans/writers want Correa so badly only serves to make that argument less credible. Would Correa waive his NTC to go to the Mets? I don't get the impression he's a huge fan of how the Giants and Mets conducted themselves. Honestly, I still think the Nationals are probably the only real game in town.

Of course the sale process will evaluate how to maximize value. None of that will have anything to do with roster construction.

Prospective owners will probably put the most value on flexibility and growth potential, but it's not like the Pohlad's can cater to a specific potential future owner since the future owners will all have different preferences. Kinda like fixing up a car you're selling. Are you adding a trailer hitch to the SUV? Some people might consider it a real plus while others wouldn't care, and some people might even view it as a negative. Steady is probably the name of the game, but if the Twins are actually going to sell, there's going to be a serious buyer identified before the offseason is over. The Twins are almost certainly going to be a business as usual operation rather than guessing at desires from a potential owner who has yet to be identified.

Agreed. Pablo is not getting dealt for "prospects" unless they're super elite and MLB ready. There also has to be an SP1 caliber pitcher coming back. I've been doing my offseason plan for funsies and it's so hard to find a team who might be able to make that happen where the Twins and their trade partner benefit. Lopez is a lot of salary, but not impossibly high. His trade value from BaseballTradeValues and analysts at various sites suggest Lopez's trade value is substantial (+37.4) at $22MM. I think Pablo Lopez to the Diamondbacks for Zac Gallen (+19.5) at $14MM and Gabriel Moreno (+16.6) at pre-arb. Arizona gets what a lot of folks in the industry view as an ace pitcher at a far below market rate for 3 years. It's no secret AZ is interested in team controlled pitchers, especially an ace. They'd absolutely love to keep Gallen, but I don't think the Diamondbacks have the budget to sign Gallen at 7/$200MM or something like that. Lopez checks the boxes for them. Gallen is a significantly better pitcher than Lopez, and he's cheaper next year, but the Twins will only have 1 year of control. The Twins also get a franchise catcher. Moreno is pre-arb, under team control until 2029, is a25 next year. Moreno is not only an above average hitter, but he's a solid defender behind the plate. He's expendable for the Diamondbacks because of Adrian Del Castillo. The Twins free up $7MM to use elsewhere to sign a DH like J.D. Martinez. Both teams win, both teams keep their window open, and both teams stay in budget.

So you're saying it's click-bait and you're saying click-bait grants credibility? I was a caretaker until some stuff went down. Welcome to my ignore list.

If there's a splash, I think it's almost certainly trading Pablo Lopez. He's the only way the Twins are going to free up cash to address other needs like CF, DH, 2B, C, SP1.