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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Everybody seems pretty bullish on Canterino. He's never pitched above AA, and he owned a 4.74 xFIP there because he was walking 15% of batters (6 BB/9), and he faced and had a 60% fly ball rate. That was 3 years ago. Since then, he's had UCL surgery and now a labrum surgery. UCL recovery rates are good. Labrum surgery recovery rates are much less successful. There isn't a guarantee Canterino returns to whatever form he had before the shoulder surgery, which may have been diminished from what he was 3 years ago before the TJ. Provided he has no setbacks, Canterino will not be ready to pitch from a mound again until May-ish of 2026. He won't be ready to join competitive pitching until the second half of next year. Canterino will be 28-1/2 years old at that point. In my opinion, releasing him is a logical decision even if it doesn't feel good. I could see the Twins signing Canterino to a MiLB contract mid next season if he's throwing well at that point.
  2. bean5302
    I came into this year not bullish on SWR at all. I didn't expect he'd be able to maintain his spot in the rotation. His Stuff+ ranks pretty poorly, but he's getting results right now. Despite the results, it's clear Baldelli has no trust in Sim as he reaches for the hook quick so I'd say the Twins have the same back end rotation opinion of SWR. The Twins aren't going to demote SWR so long as he keeps getting results. The fact Festa is still working on a pitch contributes to why he was sent back down to AAA, regardless of whether or not he pitched better than SWR.
  3. bean5302
    In parenthesis is the number of starts that pitcher made to demonstrate how the Twins' rank in "average innings" is a poor data point. John McMoneybags moves to Warba, MN. John McMoneybags made $1 billion dollars of income last year. The mean household income in Warba, MN becomes $5.5MM. You're saying people in Warba, MN are extremely well off. In fact, probably the highest income earners in the world! Meanwhile, the median household income is $10,000. Baldelli pulled pitchers early with regularity. That's his M.O. Relievers being asked to pitch more frequently and for more innings than typical leads to fatigue and a reduction in performance. The Twins have collapsed late season several times under Baldelli. The bullpen has been below average 3 consecutive years in the 2nd half.
  4. bean5302
    The "shambling remains of Brad Radke" would be our ace today. His 2006 results were as good or better than Lopez, Ober or Ryan last year. 1 Cy Young, 1 All Star and RoY Candidate who was even better, and a near HoF worthy guy in the rotation. Add in 1 MVP and another MVP candidate who was even better, along with the best closer in all of baseball. Yeah, seems like 2006 is right on par with this year, haha. Per Fangraphs, the Twins sit at 14.5% to win the division (7:1) and 36.6% to make the playoffs (3:1). The chances aren't great, but the team hasn't been eliminated or anything. It helps the Twins are 11-16, not 9-16 at this point, and the AL Central is much more pedestrian this year than expected, and there being just a couple elite teams in the AL vs a whole lot of mediocre ones so far. The Guardians are turning in yet another lucky season which makes you question whether or not it's luck at all or a new strategy metrics don't yet evaluate properly.
  5. bean5302
    Straight cash homie! I heard Randy Moss made the delivery himself.
  6. bean5302
    Brooks Lee got great results out of the gate last year, too. He doesn't look helpless at the plate like he did after his first 5 games last year, but there's plenty of reason to question the sustainability of his production. These kinds of "I told you so!" posts after a 5 game hot streak don't do you any favors if you're looking to help build positive opinions for a guy you're a fan. From athletic limitations to raw power, swing speed, exit velocities, line drive rates and more, there's a cap on him. I still think Lee ends up as a utility guy, but he's looking a heck of a lot better at the plate this year.
  7. bean5302
    @DJL44 commented on this last year. Alcala shows 4yrs 165days on Fangraphs. Real, real close to 5yrs (172 days), but not quite. The Twins manipulated his service time at the very end of last year to get him under the wire, and they might be trying to avoid a grievance hearing.
  8. bean5302
    Based on the "mean" not the median not the mode. The problem with mean is it distorts the most common outcomes. MLB Rank for Starting Innings Pitched: Tampa Bay Rays = 23rd (811 innings), 5.00 innings Minnesota Twins = 14th (855 innings), 5.28 innings Adjusted to remove openers. Tampa Bay = 148 GS, 788.1 IP, 5.33 per start Minnesota = 160 GS, 851.0 IP, 5.32 per start. We were talking about mean vs. median. Let's compare the conventional starters and each individual mean to get an idea of the philosophy of each manager. Tampa Bay = 5.39 (29), 5.52 (25), 5.00 (26), 5.78 (19), 5.11 (17), 5.67 (14), 5.07 (9), 4.71 (7) Minnesota = 5.79 (32), 5.76 (31), 5.87 (23), 4.77 (28), 5.20 (17), 4.62 (13), 4.19 (9), 4.62 (7) Bolded towards the end is the problem there. That's a WHOLE lot of commonly short starts. The Twins came out of the gate okay because Joe Ryan's early season starts were helping to get the bullpen some rest while SWR and Paddack wiped them out. But I'm going to tell you right now, over usage of the bullpen takes a harder hit on the pitchers recovery time and effectiveness than just using the mean recovery time. The Twins' bullpen was already at their limit when Joe Ryan went down, only to be replaced with guys who were making 4 inning starts. Baldelli pulls guys too early.
  9. bean5302
    Bat Bros on youtube do a ton of great batting product reviews. Entertaining, and informative. Torpedo bat essentially equals regular bat.
  10. bean5302
    It's not about Stewart throwing 6 pitches, it's about needing a reliever for the 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th innings. SWR showed signs of dead arm at 120 innings. If his limit is 86 pitches, he should be in the bullpen. We've seen Baldelli destroy his bullpen year after year with short starts and we've watched the late season collapses that come from it.
  11. bean5302
    Solid game overall. SWR was rolling on one of his best ever starts, and solid small ball run support from the lineup. Nothing flashy, just a solid win!
  12. bean5302
    Baldelli doing his absolute best to wipe the bullpen out at record speed. SWR's last fastball was 94mph. 86 pitches. Mid inning. 3 run lead.
  13. bean5302
    Cool interview!
  14. bean5302
    I give you Christian Vazquez, pro shortstop!!! He's known for defense so I'm sure it'd work out.
  15. bean5302
    I don't know why people are losing their minds over our bench guys not being All Stars.
  16. bean5302
    Very concerning results with Tonkin, but he lost out on a lot of ST. Velo way down in his first game, but it popped back. I think these are tune up games for him. What we need is a starter who can give us 6 innings reliably, like most MLB starters who go at least 6 innings in at least 1/2 their starts.
  17. bean5302
    I've watched the play, it wasn't a bad hit. Keaschall misread the movement pretty bad as he was preparing to swing at it. Hit his back arm as he pulled his lead arm up close and out of the way once he realized it was well inside. Sub-90mph pitch so he had plenty of time (relative) to get out of the way.
  18. bean5302
    Lewis is probably 5 games away or so. Seems like the Twins are expecting Castro back soon despite the nature of obliques. Spending big to get guys isn't going to happen, I don't think. The players practically outnumber the fans in the stands...
  19. bean5302
    It's beyond ridiculous at this point.
  20. bean5302
    Could Varland improve his pitches? Possibly. It's awfully hard to improve stuff as every single pitcher in MLB is trying to do it, but very few are successful. Can he dominate with pitches which don't move? No way. His changeup grades very poorly. By Stuff+ ratings, it's not even MLB worthy at a score of 76 so far this year (35 grade on 20-80 scale). Varland might improve results by dropping his weaker pitches, but his good pitches might not play as well without the repertoire. Varland does not have even one "plus" pitch right now. He's getting good results (better than he will get long term), but I see no reason to conclude he can't stick in MLB as a solid reliever for a long time. He's just not going to be closing out games or setting up a closer. Is Jax a reasonable comparison? Absolutely not. Jax's slider was as good as anything Varland has out of the 'pen right now, even when Jax was a starter. Jax now has a group of pitches which are near "plus" rating as he's made major adjustments to his game. It's important to note Jax is currently throwing 5mph faster than he was as a starter as well. Louis picked up 2mph.
  21. bean5302
    Not sure what you're disagreeing about here? I'm not worried about DaShawn Keirsey, Jr. I just don't think having 4-5 guys hoarded on a 30 man active roster who don't get a chance to play is fair to the players who are team controlled. It doesn't have to be position players, either, as others have eluded to. What if the roster was 30? Do the Twins return Eiberson Castellano (0.90 ERA, 2.43 FIP in AA right now) or do they just put him on the bench and play him once a month while they coach him up and shield him from other teams who might be interested? The reason the 40 man and 26 man rosters exist is for the benefit of players, not teams. It's to prevent teams from hoarding talent and manipulating team control. Guys who are in the situation Blewett is in are very rare birds. There are literally 1,000 players on MLB rosters every year. Of all those players, like 5 guys are in this situation. Want a REALLY REALLY prime example? Brent Rooker. Rooker was treated like Blewett. If KC could have kept him on the "30 man" and just let him sit on the bench using him as a pinch hitter once a week, what would have happened? Dude just landed a 5yr $60MM contract after being an All Star. This year he's a dark horse MVP candidate. He would have remained a nobody, probably forever without the roster rules we have.
  22. bean5302
    Also helps prevent each team from having 4-5 DaShawn Keirsey, Jr.'s on the roster they use as pinch runners once a week.
  23. bean5302
    They're using the system rather than abusing it in my opinion. The system is working great for players because it gives them a chance to catch on with any team that has an injury issue. After all, injuries are the reason guys like Blewett get service time since they don't earn a 26 man spot out of camp or get MLB offers thrown their way. The blunt way of putting it is he is not good enough for an MLB contract or a long term spot on the 26 man roster, but MLB teams are not allowed to take advantage of his AAAA status by shuttling him back and forth between AAA and MLB forever and with no risk. What if the Twins didn't have any injuries this year? Would Blewett have gotten a 40 man and then 26 man spot? Nope. He'd have spent the entire year in MiLB. This is exactly the discussion the forums have had about Randy Dobnak. Instead, because of injuries, Randy Dobnak & Scott Blewett got their numbers called and opportunities to pitch at the MLB level to showcase their skills to every other team in MLB. The Twins then DFA the players when the immediate injury need has passed or another need comes up. On the waiver wire, any other team in baseball who has an injury need can make a claim and have the player pitch in the big show. Rinse, repeat. It means a guy like Dobnak or Blewett or Tonkin gets chances to fill an emergency need for all 30 teams at pretty much any time. If there is any team with an injury need, the Dobnaks and Blewetts of the world get a shot at it. Basically like independent contract employees.
  24. bean5302
    Jenkins had a light sprained ankle he aggravated. Estimated return on Roto is 5/1, which seems pretty reasonable based on a 3 week recovery timetable. Eeles is a secret agent. He doesn't exist and no information can be published about him. You'll need to look for his alternate identity, Clayton Kershaw. You have to piece the puzzle together. It's reported that "Clayton Kershaw" (nice fake name) also underwent knee surgery and he was making starts off the mound in AA for the Dodgers. It's all a cover story since Eeles isn't a pitcher and doesn't play for the Dodgers... or does he? In a secret operation designed to protect the Twins from AL Central team scouting and planning to defeat Payton Eeles, the Minnesota Twins have made a secret deal with the Dodgers to allow Eeles to operate under the fake name "Clayton Kershaw." Further confusing the scouts, Kershaw is listed as 6'4" while Eeles is barely 5'4" tall. It's a brilliant plan.
  25. bean5302
    @chpettit19 said Varland's EV's, barrel and hard hit rates are worse than Pagan, not better. I'm not sure what Louis Varland will wind up turning into, but I'd bet more on the solid middle reliever area. In that 3.50-4.00 ERA/FIP/xFIP territory. Varland's pitches just do not move well. The velo helps him with batter swing timing, but if the batter times it up well, that ball is in the seats because it's going to be right where the hitter expects it to go.
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