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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Literally could have gotten Club Level seats at $23 including fees on SeatGeek on a beautiful day when I looked on the 22nd. It was sunny and like 65*. $60-75/ea for the poor season ticket holder who owned them.
  2. bean5302
    Are you advocating for the trade because you think he could bring a real haul back based on his league minimum salary, and more than 5 years of team control remaining? For sure, that's an enormous value, but it's also an enormous loss with limited control remaining over almost the entire current rotation. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober aren't better than #3's and Lopez is probably slipping from his #2 status. Festa's ceiling is probably as good as any of them.
  3. bean5302
    The weather was way better this year. Fans are apathetic like they haven't been since pre-contraction. We're sick of the Pohlads. We're sick of empty stadiums. We're sick of poor play. We're sick of watching a manager fumble the games away. We're sick of a front office obsessed with every cheap re-tread shiny object they see. We're sick of terrible marketing. We're sick of a team that caters to 4 year olds. We're sick of a team that distances the fans from the product. We're sick of paying for season tickets that are available at 1/2 to 1/3 face. We're sick of Delaware North. We're sick of $25 parking. We're sick of it all.
  4. bean5302
    Really great start by Joe Ryan! Those are the kinds of starts which give credibility to the overzealous "dark-horse Cy Young" folks. Though I don't believe Ryan will have a lot of those, the Twins need a couple guys to step up and deliver outstanding performances now. It's great seeing a 3 hit performance, and even an extra base for Correa, and a couple more hits for Larnach. With Buxton on a tear lately, Correa's bat coming around is still critical for the team this year. The Twins managing to win some games with small ball, and without accidentally kicking balls around the field is nice.
  5. bean5302
    Radke remains one of the most overlooked Twins. People do not realize how elite he was, and I believe Radke's efforts to get Carl Pohlad to spend money and buy into the team was a major reason the Twins weren't contracted. They overlook him being #2 in Twins pitching bWAR all time just behind Blyleven, far above guys like Santana and Kaat.
  6. bean5302
    Everybody seems pretty bullish on Canterino. He's never pitched above AA, and he owned a 4.74 xFIP there because he was walking 15% of batters (6 BB/9), and he faced and had a 60% fly ball rate. That was 3 years ago. Since then, he's had UCL surgery and now a labrum surgery. UCL recovery rates are good. Labrum surgery recovery rates are much less successful. There isn't a guarantee Canterino returns to whatever form he had before the shoulder surgery, which may have been diminished from what he was 3 years ago before the TJ. Provided he has no setbacks, Canterino will not be ready to pitch from a mound again until May-ish of 2026. He won't be ready to join competitive pitching until the second half of next year. Canterino will be 28-1/2 years old at that point. In my opinion, releasing him is a logical decision even if it doesn't feel good. I could see the Twins signing Canterino to a MiLB contract mid next season if he's throwing well at that point.
  7. bean5302
    I came into this year not bullish on SWR at all. I didn't expect he'd be able to maintain his spot in the rotation. His Stuff+ ranks pretty poorly, but he's getting results right now. Despite the results, it's clear Baldelli has no trust in Sim as he reaches for the hook quick so I'd say the Twins have the same back end rotation opinion of SWR. The Twins aren't going to demote SWR so long as he keeps getting results. The fact Festa is still working on a pitch contributes to why he was sent back down to AAA, regardless of whether or not he pitched better than SWR.
  8. bean5302
    In parenthesis is the number of starts that pitcher made to demonstrate how the Twins' rank in "average innings" is a poor data point. John McMoneybags moves to Warba, MN. John McMoneybags made $1 billion dollars of income last year. The mean household income in Warba, MN becomes $5.5MM. You're saying people in Warba, MN are extremely well off. In fact, probably the highest income earners in the world! Meanwhile, the median household income is $10,000. Baldelli pulled pitchers early with regularity. That's his M.O. Relievers being asked to pitch more frequently and for more innings than typical leads to fatigue and a reduction in performance. The Twins have collapsed late season several times under Baldelli. The bullpen has been below average 3 consecutive years in the 2nd half.
  9. bean5302
    The "shambling remains of Brad Radke" would be our ace today. His 2006 results were as good or better than Lopez, Ober or Ryan last year. 1 Cy Young, 1 All Star and RoY Candidate who was even better, and a near HoF worthy guy in the rotation. Add in 1 MVP and another MVP candidate who was even better, along with the best closer in all of baseball. Yeah, seems like 2006 is right on par with this year, haha. Per Fangraphs, the Twins sit at 14.5% to win the division (7:1) and 36.6% to make the playoffs (3:1). The chances aren't great, but the team hasn't been eliminated or anything. It helps the Twins are 11-16, not 9-16 at this point, and the AL Central is much more pedestrian this year than expected, and there being just a couple elite teams in the AL vs a whole lot of mediocre ones so far. The Guardians are turning in yet another lucky season which makes you question whether or not it's luck at all or a new strategy metrics don't yet evaluate properly.
  10. bean5302
    Straight cash homie! I heard Randy Moss made the delivery himself.
  11. bean5302
    Brooks Lee got great results out of the gate last year, too. He doesn't look helpless at the plate like he did after his first 5 games last year, but there's plenty of reason to question the sustainability of his production. These kinds of "I told you so!" posts after a 5 game hot streak don't do you any favors if you're looking to help build positive opinions for a guy you're a fan. From athletic limitations to raw power, swing speed, exit velocities, line drive rates and more, there's a cap on him. I still think Lee ends up as a utility guy, but he's looking a heck of a lot better at the plate this year.
  12. bean5302
    @DJL44 commented on this last year. Alcala shows 4yrs 165days on Fangraphs. Real, real close to 5yrs (172 days), but not quite. The Twins manipulated his service time at the very end of last year to get him under the wire, and they might be trying to avoid a grievance hearing.
  13. bean5302
    Based on the "mean" not the median not the mode. The problem with mean is it distorts the most common outcomes. MLB Rank for Starting Innings Pitched: Tampa Bay Rays = 23rd (811 innings), 5.00 innings Minnesota Twins = 14th (855 innings), 5.28 innings Adjusted to remove openers. Tampa Bay = 148 GS, 788.1 IP, 5.33 per start Minnesota = 160 GS, 851.0 IP, 5.32 per start. We were talking about mean vs. median. Let's compare the conventional starters and each individual mean to get an idea of the philosophy of each manager. Tampa Bay = 5.39 (29), 5.52 (25), 5.00 (26), 5.78 (19), 5.11 (17), 5.67 (14), 5.07 (9), 4.71 (7) Minnesota = 5.79 (32), 5.76 (31), 5.87 (23), 4.77 (28), 5.20 (17), 4.62 (13), 4.19 (9), 4.62 (7) Bolded towards the end is the problem there. That's a WHOLE lot of commonly short starts. The Twins came out of the gate okay because Joe Ryan's early season starts were helping to get the bullpen some rest while SWR and Paddack wiped them out. But I'm going to tell you right now, over usage of the bullpen takes a harder hit on the pitchers recovery time and effectiveness than just using the mean recovery time. The Twins' bullpen was already at their limit when Joe Ryan went down, only to be replaced with guys who were making 4 inning starts. Baldelli pulls guys too early.
  14. bean5302
    Bat Bros on youtube do a ton of great batting product reviews. Entertaining, and informative. Torpedo bat essentially equals regular bat.
  15. bean5302
    It's not about Stewart throwing 6 pitches, it's about needing a reliever for the 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th innings. SWR showed signs of dead arm at 120 innings. If his limit is 86 pitches, he should be in the bullpen. We've seen Baldelli destroy his bullpen year after year with short starts and we've watched the late season collapses that come from it.
  16. bean5302
    Solid game overall. SWR was rolling on one of his best ever starts, and solid small ball run support from the lineup. Nothing flashy, just a solid win!
  17. bean5302
    Baldelli doing his absolute best to wipe the bullpen out at record speed. SWR's last fastball was 94mph. 86 pitches. Mid inning. 3 run lead.
  18. bean5302
    Cool interview!
  19. bean5302
    I give you Christian Vazquez, pro shortstop!!! He's known for defense so I'm sure it'd work out.
  20. bean5302
    I don't know why people are losing their minds over our bench guys not being All Stars.
  21. bean5302
    Very concerning results with Tonkin, but he lost out on a lot of ST. Velo way down in his first game, but it popped back. I think these are tune up games for him. What we need is a starter who can give us 6 innings reliably, like most MLB starters who go at least 6 innings in at least 1/2 their starts.
  22. bean5302
    I've watched the play, it wasn't a bad hit. Keaschall misread the movement pretty bad as he was preparing to swing at it. Hit his back arm as he pulled his lead arm up close and out of the way once he realized it was well inside. Sub-90mph pitch so he had plenty of time (relative) to get out of the way.
  23. bean5302
    Lewis is probably 5 games away or so. Seems like the Twins are expecting Castro back soon despite the nature of obliques. Spending big to get guys isn't going to happen, I don't think. The players practically outnumber the fans in the stands...
  24. bean5302
    It's beyond ridiculous at this point.
  25. bean5302
    Could Varland improve his pitches? Possibly. It's awfully hard to improve stuff as every single pitcher in MLB is trying to do it, but very few are successful. Can he dominate with pitches which don't move? No way. His changeup grades very poorly. By Stuff+ ratings, it's not even MLB worthy at a score of 76 so far this year (35 grade on 20-80 scale). Varland might improve results by dropping his weaker pitches, but his good pitches might not play as well without the repertoire. Varland does not have even one "plus" pitch right now. He's getting good results (better than he will get long term), but I see no reason to conclude he can't stick in MLB as a solid reliever for a long time. He's just not going to be closing out games or setting up a closer. Is Jax a reasonable comparison? Absolutely not. Jax's slider was as good as anything Varland has out of the 'pen right now, even when Jax was a starter. Jax now has a group of pitches which are near "plus" rating as he's made major adjustments to his game. It's important to note Jax is currently throwing 5mph faster than he was as a starter as well. Louis picked up 2mph.
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