Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

bean5302

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,507

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    35

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    There are yellow flags with Miranda, and aspects of his game which put a real hard ceiling on him, but I think the floor looks pretty solid as well. With any pre-arb player, there are reasons to speculate on how sustainable performance is, but Miranda has as much going for him as any pre-arb background character guy slated for an every day starter position.
  2. bean5302
    Add me to the absolutely no debate whatsoever crowd. There is utterly no question the Twins are going to either avoid arbitration with Jeffers or tender him whatever contract gets decided on during arbitration. 29 teams would line up to bring Jeffers in at $5MM. It'd be like non-tendering Joe Ryan.
  3. bean5302
    If I were Derek Falvey, I'd have the trade form for Brooks Lee already for signature and sitting on my desk for every single team in baseball with just the opposing team's player(s) missing from the document so I could scan and email it before the end of the phone call. Just in case another team still viewed Lee as a potential elite value prospect.
  4. bean5302
    5) Joe Ryan - I think Ryan would command a sizeable return, and he's likely much more coveted than Bailey Ober based on reputation and the way the Twins have deployed him. Dealing Ryan away with 3 years of team control and arbitration when he's considered the 2nd best pitcher in the rotation would be a pretty aggressive move. I think the Twins would only do this if they got an MLB ready ace potential pitcher in return like an Andrew Painter or Brandon Sproat (who I wanted to target in my offseason plan last year...). No way you can move Ryan without having the potential to get something back even better than he is expected to be. 4) Buxton's going nowhere. Full NTC, negative trade value. 3) Carlos Correa is shown with positive trade value on Baseballtradevalues.com, but I think the only legitimate potential trade partner is the Washington Nationals. If the Twins can move Correa's full contract, they will, but again, I think the Nationals are the only dance partner in MLB. Other teams already have "good" shortstops or payroll restrictions or aren't seen as possessing win-now potential. 2) Pablo Lopez. Unlike most people, I am not and never have been that high on Pablo Lopez. Historically, he's been a back end #2 or elite #3 guy in terms of actual results. He's unusual to classify because he does have longer straight stretches of dominance, but it's almost like he's either an ace or a #5 rotation arm and you roll the dice on which guy you get. A $22MM 3.75 ERA pitcher is a luxury which stretches the Twins' payroll situation, though I'm at a loss as to how the Twins would replace Lopez since Minnesota actually needs an ace. Baseballtradevalues also disagrees with me having Lopez at +37.4 surplus value, and MLBTR staff has been on record saying Lopez would instantly be one of the elite coveted arms available this offseason if the Twins were to make him available. I do think the likelihood of Minnesota going to back to the Terry Ryan/Derek Falvey roots and assembling a rotation full of #3-4 guys is high. It's also possible the Twins could package some elite talent (some they've acquired from moving Lopez) to pry a near ready very high ceiling starter prospect away from a team. 1) Royce Lewis. Though I'm not planning on being a season ticket holder, trading Royce Lewis would seriously impact my opinion of the team. He's the only guy on the roster I would bet on likely winning an MVP in his career, and the only guy on the team who has "it" when it comes to being the face of the franchise. Lewis could be the next Kirby Puckett. The way the Twins treated him last year is unbelievable. If anything showed why Baldelli should've gotten a pink slip, it's how he treated the face of the franchise as a number in a database.
  5. bean5302
    I think you need to consider the overall objective. The Twins won't part with Wallner for prospects unless they're doing a full rebuild, in which case, Wallner makes little sense to move as he's pre-arb. If the Twins moved Wallner, it'd be for like Wilyer Abreu and Kyle Teel. Now that's an example trade that makes sense from the Twins' perspective on a huge overpay by Boston.
  6. bean5302
    "All" the holes? Anyway, it doesn't matter since you're convinced the outcome would have been the same no matter what the Twins did it seems.
  7. bean5302
    With an 8 man bullpen, that's 240 relief pitchers in MLB at any given time, but of the 167 relievers with 48+ innings pitched, Jorge Alcala ranked #62 in ERA at 3.24. Puts him as an average team's 2nd best reliever. xERA ranks Alcala quite a bit higher, but his SIERA, FIP and xFIP are all less bullish. In terms of actual results, Alcala was very good.
  8. bean5302
    Another pretty much no brainer decision. Alcala is being brought back, especially at a highly team friendly $1.5MM option. MLBTR has Alcala slated at $1.7MM as an arbitration estimate. Declining the option is the same as non-tendering him, which would be pretty out there. Top 10% of MLB in exit velocity, expected batting average against, xwOBA on contact, hard hits allowed, and his Stuff+ grades out at near plus levels for all 4 pitches. He'd be a great option to turn into starter if he had the durability. He needs to locate his stuff a little better and he'd be dominant. The upside is way too high for $1.5MM.
  9. bean5302
    If the Twins just declined the option on Polanco, they're in exactly the same spot, but with $5.25MM more to spend. If you like Gonzalez, that's fine, but he wasn't going to help fill any of the holes the Twins had in 2024.
  10. bean5302
    Jose Altuve is a 9x All Star, MVP winner and virtual lock HoF'er, if not first ballot. He's 5'6" tall. No idea why you think shorter guys can't throw hard? Nick Allen had well above average arm strength as a shortstop in '22-'23, and he's listed 5'8" tall.
  11. bean5302
    The trade needs to be graded based on the needs of the team, and the outcome. For the Twins, the trade was a F on addressing the needs. They'd have been much better off declining Polanco's option than exercising it and trading him. This was the result of Falvey being too slow on addressing the need or overplaying his hand. He'd done this a couple years in a row now. For the Mariners, it was an A in regard to needs. They offset a lot of the payroll by moving a reliever with no track record, and a pitcher they didn't want on the roster to the Twins while simultaneously acquiring a 2B who projected as above average. In terms of outcomes, the Twins used the savings to sign Carlos Santana, which gives them an A on productivity, but it wasn't the position they really needed to fill (CF/SP/DH) so a C, IMHO. The Mariners got a injury hampered Polanco who struggled to AAA replacement level production, but they avoided significant hit to their payroll by being able to decline his option. D. Overall, I'd grade the trade as a C for the Mariners and a D for the Twins. The Mariners didn't have to pay Desclafani and Topa's $5MM in salary for 0 WAR, and they weren't on the hook for Polanco past 2024. The trade didn't turn out as a win-win, but it wasn't the worst trade that could have happened for either team.
  12. bean5302
    I suspect the Twins will wait to see what the arbitration/contract values look like for Ryan, Ober, Jax and Duran before making any trades. Given Falvey's lack of willingness to spend on the bullpen, I think Jax or Duran could be moved, but I don't think Ryan or Ober will be moved until the deadline (if the Twins are out of it) or after next season. Brooks Lee's consistent ineptitude at the plate along with the confirmation of his lack of physical tools will scare off most teams from investing heavily. Lee's also pre-arb so it's not expensive to keep him around and hope he gets closer to his ceiling.
  13. bean5302
    RF/9, FP for Saints' Shortstops 4.66 .957 - Holland 170 inn 4.28 .989 - Eeles 184 inn 4.06 .944 - Castillo 188 inn (graded serviceable to neutral as MLB SS in 2022) 3.68 .964 - Helman 264 inn 3.29, .974 - Lee 153 inn 3.22 .970 - Bannon 274 inn You have a pretty strong opinion on a guy who grades out pretty well at SS in a small sample. Eeles hasn't been asked to play SS much by the Twins, and the scouting reports are down on his arm, but the scouting reports didn't foresee him being this impressive even at the high minors levels. When it comes to physical tools like running and throwing, it sure seems like the scouting reports are often biased. In regard to scouting reports favoring Eeles' status as an unknown, talented MiLB players spend only a couple months at each level, and development in the minors for pitchers has as much or more to do with throwing the pitch the boss wants you to work on than it does trying to target an opponents weakness. Eeles is certainly no sure fire bet, but at age 24, he was not old for AAA last year. He was on a level playing field with good, but non-elite prospects who were taken out of college. I don't think he's probably an option as a starter at SS based on the scouting reports and fair, but not great defensive stats, but the Twins have Correa there anyway. As a backup SS, he could be as good of a bet as Brooks Lee, who also has none of the physical tools to succeed there or Royce Lewis who does have the physical tools, but struggles to throw with accuracy. The best news is the Twins have a big hole at 2B with the two most likely starters being guys who apparently can't hit at the MLB level (Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien).
  14. bean5302
    Trading Wallner feels like a colossal mistake in the works. You're talking about one of the most dangerous hitters in all of baseball with the physical tools to be a plus fielder in the corners who is still pre-arb. If Wallner hadn't slumped out of the gate this year, he'd probably be viewed similar in a lot of respects to early Giancarlo Stanton who went on to win an MVP in 2017. Wallner needs to be more consistent? '23 AAA Apr 75 PA, .268/.453/.500 OPS .953 wRC+ 149 AAA May 69 PA, .323/.348/.615 OPS .963 wRC+ 131 AAA Jun+ 161 PA, .286/.404/.489 OPS .892 wRC+ 127 MLB Jul .209/.306/.512 OPS .818 wRC+ 122 MLB Aug .208/.322/.481 OPS .803 wRC+ 121 MLB Sep .284/.411/.514 OPS .925 wRC+ 156 '24 All Apr 77 PA .136/.247/.273 OPS .519 wRC+ 43 AAA May 121 PA, .198/.306/.436 OPS .741 wRC+ 88 AAA Jun+ 132 PA, .342/.417/.726 OPS 1.143 wRC+ 189 Jul .364/.451/.818 OPS 1.269 wRC+ 253 Aug .273/.398/.558 OPS .956 wRC+ 173 Sep .243/.333/.405 OPS .739 wRC+ 115 In his sophomore season, Wallner definitely slumped hard to start the year. He was focused on cutting down his weakness to inside pitches, which meant changing his approach at the plate. The slump carried into the first part of May. Apart from that, Wallner has consistently hit well to excellent every single month of the the past 2 years. His K rate is too high, but for hitters as dangerous as Wallner is at the plate, it's not uncommon to see an improvement in plate discipline as they get more experience. Aaron Judge K'd over 30% of the time for his first 3 seasons. Another commonly trashed player around TD historically is Brent Rooker. Rooker's K rate dropped below 30% last year on his way to the most impressive full season hitting campaign the Twins have seen since 2019's Nelson Cruz, but Wallner has better physical tools than Rooker. There is a reason Wallner's trade value is neck and neck with the most valuable 26 man guys the Twins have. Right with Lopez and Jax, above guys like Lee and Lewis. Wallner's ceiling might be Stanton's 2017, though I don't think he'll get there, but the number of players with a wRC+ 150 bat in MLB is awfully small. Around 10 qualify per year. Last year all of them had at least 4.7 fWAR. Teams with little to no depth looking to remain competitive do not deal from pre-arb players who project as likely elite contributors. If the Twins are looking to punt/tank on 2025-2026... I guess. But then guys like Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Jax, Duran, Lewis, Buxton, and Correa are all preferable to move...
  15. bean5302
    I can understand the desire to have a more proven player slated into the starter position, but I think there are plenty of playoff hopeful teams who'd be okay rolling with Miranda at 1B. Miranda's bat (apart from trying to play through a sprained shoulder in 2023) has been solid for nearly 900 plate appearances in 2 seasons. That's a pretty solid track record for a pre-arb guy. In regard to WAR expectations, players with similar bats to Miranda's wRC+ 115 who are listed as 1B in Fanraphs (+/- 5pts of wRC+) with fWAR 115 Salvador Perez = 3.2 119 Christian Walker = 3.0 114 Carlos Santana = 3.0 117 Matt Olson = 2.6 118 Josh Naylor = 2.3 119 Michael Busch = 2.3 120 Yandy Diaz = 1.9 The range from best case to worst is basically 2-3 WAR. I don't think it's unfair to expect Miranda playing 1B will be at that 2 WAR level. I copied this from another article posted today Apr 52PA, .280/.308/.480 BABIP .308, 1.9% BB, 17.3% K, EV 89.7mph, Barrel 4.9%, Hard Hit 34.1% May 91PA, .271/.308/.424 BABIP .286, 4.4% BB, 14.3% K, EV 88.2mph, Barrel 6.8%, Hard Hit 39.7% Jun 98PA, .333/.388/.552 BABIP .351, 8.2% BB, 12.2% K, EV 91.2mph, Barrel 10.4%, Hard Hit 44.2% Jul 44PA, .439/.477/.634 BABIP .515, 2.3% BB, 15.9% K, EV 87.8mph, Barrel 5.9%, Hard Hit 41.2% Aug 88PA, .232/.273/.354 BABIP .264, 4.5% BB, 12.5% K, EV 89.3mph, Barrel 4.2%, Hard Hit 41.7% Sep 56PA, .196/.196/.250 BABIP .262, 0.0% BB, 25.0% K, EV 85.0mph, Barrel 0.0%, Hard Hit 26.2% Miranda was good to outstanding with his results for 4 months straight this year, and his metrics in August suggested his results were unlucky (expected with the extremely lucky July). Miranda produced above average results in June, July, August, and September straight in 2022 as well after a very slow start for the rookie in May, 2022. Two separate healthy seasons where Miranda produced for at least 4 straight months each year. That's more than a couple weeks. The arguments you (and other TD writers) are making don't seem to hold up to fair scrutiny. I don't think Miranda is an All Star or anything. Just that all indications are when placed in a defensive position he's actually suited to play, with the bat he's had over the vast majority of two separate seasons, he's a more solid choice than he's being credited for around here. I don't think I have anything more to add to the discussion at this point so if you disagree, it's not like I'll lose my mind over it or something. Opinions will always vary on players no matter how good or bad they play.
  16. bean5302
    Another mostly negative Miranda article. At least the writers are consistent... Miranda is a solid option for every day 1B. Apr 52PA, .280/.308/.480 BABIP .308, 1.9% BB, 17.3% K, EV 89.7mph, Barrel 4.9%, Hard Hit 34.1% May 91PA, .271/.308/.424 BABIP .286, 4.4% BB, 14.3% K, EV 88.2mph, Barrel 6.8%, Hard Hit 39.7% Jun 98PA, .333/.388/.552 BABIP .351, 8.2% BB, 12.2% K, EV 91.2mph, Barrel 10.4%, Hard Hit 44.2% Jul 44PA, .439/.477/.634 BABIP .515, 2.3% BB, 15.9% K, EV 87.8mph, Barrel 5.9%, Hard Hit 41.2% Aug 88PA, .232/.273/.354 BABIP .264, 4.5% BB, 12.5% K, EV 89.3mph, Barrel 4.2%, Hard Hit 41.7% Sep 56PA, .196/.196/.250 BABIP .262, 0.0% BB, 25.0% K, EV 85.0mph, Barrel 0.0%, Hard Hit 26.2% It's pretty clear Miranda's August had a lot of bad luck involved, offsetting the ridiculously lucky .515 BABIP July, and it's also clear he was awful in September before his season was shut down seeing Miranda hit the IL with a lower back strain. Considering almost all the metrics for Miranda's plate approach and batted ball tendencies were pretty consistent outside September, there's no particularly good reason to suspect that luck and later his back wasn't at fault for his production in August/September.
  17. bean5302
    Cheap 2 WAR players don't get you into the postseason, they just help prevent you from missing it. They're the bread and butter of a competitive team.
  18. bean5302
    I don't think you're honestly evaluating the situation which gets right back to my original question/assertion in regard to Miranda's popularity with the writers on this site. So let's throw out the most reliable advanced defensive stats for the small sample sizes we have and hinge the debate not on metrics, but reading the minds of the Twins' front office and management. The Twins have not commonly deployed Miranda at DH, preferring to use him primarily at 3B. The question is why the Twins would deploy Miranda at a much more demanding defensive position if they didn't believe he could catch baseballs? Again, the error rate for Miranda at 1B suggests he can catch baseballs just fine since his fielding percentage (.995) is basically right in line with Carlos Santana's 1B career fielding percentage (.994) or last year's (.996). You could argue Santana is superior with scooping after 10 years of experience, but that's not enough to make Miranda into an unplayable fielder there. To answer your question as to why the Twins deployed Miranda at 3B instead of 1B, wouldn't it make a lot more sense that they felt Miranda was better at 3B than Donovan Solano (who was a primary 2B/3B throughout his career) or Carlos Santana (very limited 3B experience)? While the Twins are hardly a traditional organization, even they wouldn't choose to deploy their expected worst fielder to the hot corner of the infield. Now, if the Twins have the budget to go out and get a slick fielding free agent 1B who can hit, I could see them doing it just for depth, but not because they don't believe Miranda can play 1B. The by far most likely scenario is believing in his 2024 results at the plate to bring back Carlos Santana, but I doubt they're getting him for $5MM after his resurgent 2024. The 39 year old's age is scary, but he was extremely durable, and he's coming off by far the best year he's had at the plate since 2019. Santana is going to have a couple suitors unlike last year when he languished on the free agent market into February which should get him a couple extra million, I suspect. Already probably $10MM in the hole for payroll capacity, I don't see the Twins finding another $8MM or so to bring back Santana. After that, it's nothing but guys who can't field (Josh Bell) or can't hit (Joey Gallo) or are highly suspect in durability and/or performance in general (Anthony Rizzo).
  19. bean5302
    I think it is pretty radical to assume Miranda wouldn't be capable as an every day first baseman. He's barely played the position last year because of Carlos Santana being a solid fielding, veteran, durable 1B who switch hits. Miranda had a +3.3 UZR/150 at 1B in 2022. Miranda was better than average with fielding percentage, and Miranda was above average in range by UZR, which uses the exact same data table as DRS. The ding against Miranda at 1B was in "double play rate." OAA/DRS are totally unstable even in full year to year Looking at 2024, in his 100 inning sample size, Miranda graded as +6.7 in UZR/150, neutral in OAA and neutral in DRS. Miranda has a good glove, he just doesn't have the arm to play 3B. There's no reason to suspect he won't be at least average at 1B, IMHO.
  20. bean5302
    I think that's pretty fair, and right about where I expected him to be before 2024 began. A solid 2 WAR every day player until he gets into year 2-3 of arbitration when it gets more likely for him to be traded away.
  21. bean5302
    Castro isn't remotely close to enough for Rushing. Castro is going to cost $6MM. His market value is 3yrs $28MM so an AAV of roughly $10MM. He's under control for just one year, so his value is going to be like $5MM surplus. Enough for like a #10 org prospect, not a what would normally be a #1-2 org prospect for most teams. Rushing is more comparable to Emmanuel Rodriguez.
  22. bean5302
    Yes. Dobnak would probably to be considered part of the "MLB" payroll because he's under a guaranteed contract. It's dead money. The maximum 26 man payroll is probably related to the front office payroll, MiLB salaries, international draft money, etc.
  23. bean5302
    Right? What is it with this site's writers absolutely hating Jose Miranda? Did he break into their houses and steal the last beer out of their fridges or something?
  24. bean5302
    Jeffers is an average defensive catcher with a slightly above average bat. His wOBA was almost 40pts higher than expected last year, and even Jeffers knew it was smoke and mirrors so he adapted his plate approach to try and get some sustainability. Once you throw out the junk stat "catcher framing," Jeffers is a 2 WAR catcher on an average year, but Baldelli's love of resting players will always limit Jeffers' plate appearances. That means the Twins need 2 starting caliber catchers. Rushing bats left handed so the platoon obsessed front office will love that. As for what the Dodgers want? Starting pitching. Calling their rotation "one of the best in baseball" is far from accurate. The Dodgers are returning Glasnow (who was on the IL with an elbow injury) and Yamamoto, but after that, there's nothing reliable due to a host of "forearm" injuries and TJs. They're going to want pitching. What kind of pitching? Starts with a Pablo and ends with a Lopez is my guess. They'd probably also take Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober.
  25. bean5302
    Dusty Baker has managed a team for 26 years and made the World Series once. Ever.
×
×
  • Create New...