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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    There is an enormous difference in the Padres and Royals compared to the Twins. Night and day. The Twins had 5 years of experience with Rooker, they drafted and developed him, and they evaluated him as MiLB roster filler or AAAA injury depth. That's a huge statement, and a big red flag to every other team in baseball. When guys hit age 27, the writing is on the wall. No team lets what the view as a quality prospect get to age 27 without giving them an extended shot because it's completely negligent. Rooker might as well have been a guy with a conviction on his criminal record looking to get a job at a Fortune 500 company. The background check is going to torpedo him like 95% of the time based on reputation alone.
  2. bean5302
    Joe Ryan would have more trade value than Ober because of the ceiling he's shown and the exciting K rates, but shipping Joe Ryan off doesn't address the primary need the Twins have, which is payroll relief. The Twins save a net of, at most, a projected $3.0MM doing this because they'll still need to pay somebody $0.8MM to take Ryan's spot on the 26 man. I do think at least 2 of the starters (Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, SWR, Festa, Matthews) will be moved this offseason, but the one which actually makes sense is Lopez from an objective needs standpoint. Then again, I don't think Falvey is great at budgeting.
  3. bean5302
    SWR looks borderline to me. While there has been a lot of analysis surrounding him getting tired and losing velo as the year got late, his late year velo was close to his early year velo when he was successful. Scouting probably just caught up to him. Not sure how the rest of the league sees him.
  4. bean5302
    Jeffers has some trade value. He's not moving mountains because he's already in Arb2 and there's a ceiling. Step 1) Twins trade Jeffers for something (not an near MLB ready or good catcher because teams won't partner for that) Step 2) Twins add a catcher that costs more than Jeffers who maybe isn't as good. Step 3) Twins add at least 1 more catcher in 2026. The outcome of a Jeffers trade is the Twins create a new problem, and the current problem is worse than it was before the trade.
  5. bean5302
    Zebby Matthews has just as much ceiling as Festa does, and a better floor than Festa as well. Not sure why writers are so enamored with Festa? Results don't really matter. Matthews didn't get the opportunity to hone his craft in AAA like Festa did, and out of the gate, Matthews was more than respectable. His ceiling is still there, just like Berrios' ceiling was still there after his 8.05 ERA debut. Festa is currently working on developing a curveball which would be huge to his floor. As MLB scouting reports get out on Festa, there's a real danger of a sophomore slump due to his 3 pitch repertoire, including a changeup that Stuff+ thinks isn't really even MLB caliber, but PitchBot thinks is good? In any case, sure, the Twins could trade some pitching depth for a cheap semi-established position player with upside, but parting with Matthews or Festa isn't likely going to bring back a player with more than everyday regular as their ceiling.
  6. bean5302
    I don't really have to read this article. I'm guessing every single player on the 40 man gets one of these? Trading Jeffers is non-sensical in a special kind of way. Jeffers IS a consistent catcher, just not he catcher TD writers and fans wanted after a crazy luck fueled 2023 homer-fest. There are plenty of streaky player in MLB. Jeffers is a wRC+ 105ish catcher with average-ish defense. 2.0 WAR kinda guy in 80-100 G caught per year, with another 20 G as DH. Jeffers is also the only catcher in MLB or MiLB who is controlled by the Twins past this coming year and likely to be on a 26 man roster beyond 2025. There is no way for the Twins to draft their way out of this problem. They either need to pay more than Jeffers costs to sign a FA for the same production or trade Jeffers for another catcher with more control, and then still sign or trade for another catcher.
  7. bean5302
    Exactly. Worse players get cut. Their job is to evaluate talent, man. The signs on Rooker were clear as day as far as I'm concerned. Btw, Rooker just put up a better season than any Twins player has put up in Falvey's career with the Twins excluding Brian Dozier's 6.0 WAR 2017 season. Rooker literally put up a 5.1 fWAR campaign. He was not a 6.5 out of 10. I wrote an article about Rooker before the Twins carelessly dismissed him comparing him to Larnach (who was much less projectable). Missing on a 5.0 WAR guy is not forgivable. It's an absolutely catastrophic failure. I do mean absolutely catastrophic. When the Twins kicked Rooker to the curb as a toss in to clear 40 man roster space, it sent a strong message to the rest of the league. The Twins don't see any talent in this guy, and they're the ones who drafted and developed him. The Twins destroyed Rooker's professional reputation, period. So it's not a huge wonder why the Padres and Royals weren't willing to have more faith. The Twins never gave Rooker a chance. They had complete tunnel vision on their "hit tool" guys like Larnach and Kirilloff, both with obvious and serious flaws. Now Larnach has made himself a potential every day player by revamping his plate approach, but Kirilloff just retired because the writing was on the wall. Stop defending the biggest screwup since David Ortiz.
  8. bean5302
    No way. Rooker was on a totally different level, and it's just baffling why teams didn't see it. Rooker didn't have glaring weaknesses against certain pitch types. He he great exit velocities, and consistently destroyed AAA pitching. Every place Rooker landed, his AAA stat line was always like wRC+ 140 or higher. He also started off in AA in his first full season after being drafted, finding his way to MLB in 2020 after being drafted in 2017. Take a guy who rapidly moves up, rakes at every level, crushes baseballs in his first exposure to MLB and never even give him 300 PA. Rooker's 2021 wasn't even bad! He was .219/.317/.425 OPS .742 wRC+ 106 in 183 PA after being called up in July after receiving a handful of sporadic playing time in April that year. Severino maxed out at league average in 2 seasons of AAA, and it took him 5 years to get to AA.
  9. bean5302
    I think the real question is whether or not he could get away with not throwing strikes while AA and lower levels like Drew Strotman. Strotman could throw strikes, but if he did, things took a nasty turn. In AAA, Lewis is probably going to have to throw strikes based on the scouting reports. If he throws strikes, will his pitches be put in the seats or into gloves? Lewis struck out 30.9% of hitters in the 2nd half at AA, but the BB rate didn't really drop as it stayed at 11.3%.
  10. bean5302
    I think Winder has the stuff to be very good, but that shoulder has been a huge problem. It's tough looking at his performances in isolation and evaluating him as his shoulder cost him quite a bit of velo, and probably some command. Severino never panned out defensively, and sure, you can look at the home runs in 2023 to get all excited, but his bat was AAA average. It was average again this year, but with long months of poor production mixed with like a single scorching month of performance. Severino is just a talent issue.
  11. bean5302
    From Boston Red Sox fans, I'd wager, haha. Red Sox ownership hasn't been spending big for a few years and seemingly wanted to avoid wallet explosions. Big investments they've made like Trevor Story wound up being a mess as well. I'd be pretty surprised to see the Red Sox bring in Juan Soto when they already have quality, cheap and team controlled outfielders with other, bigger needs.
  12. bean5302
    "The frame" "The velo" I wonder how many potential HoF players get overlooked or pigeonholed by MLB scouts and front office's treating baseball players as if they were NFL players? There is no correlation between pitcher size and durability. In regard to Lewis, he's pretty hard to project right now. Very good K rate for AA, but came with a ton of walks as well. As he gets a few starts in at AAA, it should become more apparent whether or not his stuff will potentially play since AAA hitters are generally a lot more polished. I sure wish there were better pitching metrics available so he could be compared better against his competition level at a glance.
  13. bean5302
    There are two risks to the scenario. One is performance, but the other is injury. Starter, bullpen, starter has been done before. I think the most successful story of that all time is John Smoltz, but Smoltz was a dominant starter who moved the 'pen because of injury recovery. Jax's velocity is going to drop in the bullpen, probably by about 2mph. His pitches will not be nearly as effective when that happens. It's also fair to wonder whether last year was Jax's career year. As his velo drops, does he become a 3.00 ERA or 3.50 ERA guy or a 4.50 ERA guy is the question from a performance standpoint. Is his preparation still in order for being a rotation guy? How will his 30 year old body react to a workload he's never seen before? Keep in mind, Jax has never pitched more than 120 innings in a year, even back when he was a starter. There is value to both the Twins and Jax if he can succeed. Some of the questions might be answered with the Twins' other offseason moves like trading a starter or Duran.
  14. bean5302
    That's not trading low. Pablo Lopez is the most desirable and rare commodity in all of baseball. A front end starter. 2 extra years of team friendly AAV top of the rotation arm is absolute gold. You might personally love Moreno, and I do think he's very solid, but he's not a superstar like J.T. Realmuto was at this point. Moreno isn't hurt to the best of my knowledge. If you want an ace for multiple years on a team friendly contract (and the Diamondbacks really, really do), you have to pay.
  15. bean5302
    He's your favorite pitcher, let me fix that for you, lol.
  16. bean5302
    The Twins don't need him to play 7-8 more years, he's only under contract for 4 years, and his full NTC drops after 2 years when it goes to a 5 team trade list.
  17. bean5302
    Buxton's knee will never be right, and that's been made clear. He went on the IL last year for the knee in May, and it's a chronic inflammation situation. He's got a buildup of scar tissue in there which will continue coming back, but with diligence, Buxton is hoping he can minimize the impact of the knee. “It's just trying to get in front of those types of problems out there -- not necessarily problems, just stuff I've got to manage throughout the rest of my career, you know?” Buxton said. https://www.mlb.com/news/byron-buxton-discusses-management-of-knee-pain
  18. bean5302
    In general, trading a cheap, quality, starting pitcher with 3 years of team control left just does not happen. The Rays never follow that format. They generally don't trade their pitchers until 1.0-1.5 years of control left... maybe 2 if they get a massive overpay. Ober is a solid pitcher, but his xFIP has been remarkably stable over his career. He's probably about a 3.85-4.10 ERA kinda guy. He'll also be 29 next year, and has a fairly significant injury history despite his great durability in 2024. He's not in the same league as most of the guys mentioned in the article, but Ober would be coveted by just about any team in MLB as a quality 5+ game playoff series starter. He's more than just a durable innings eater like Gibson, for example. I'm not sure what teams would jump at Ober and also offer the Twins a solid return for 2025 since Ober's trade value is middle of the road as a quality 2.5 WAR type of guy.
  19. bean5302
    They've made some pretty aggressive moves in the front office and they've hired a firm to handle the sale. Signs point to the Pohlad's being very serious about selling the team.
  20. bean5302
    Varland gives up a ton of loud contact out of the 'pen or in the rotation, and his pitches don't move very well relative to his peers. Not all starters will automatically find success out of the bullpen just because of a minor velo bump. In Varland's case from 96 starter to 98 reliever may help him be serviceable out of the bullpen, but to expect him to go out there and be a weapon out of the 'pen seems optimistic. I'd like Varland to be able to put up respectable numbers. Like a 3.65-3.85 ERA or something which I would consider a win.
  21. bean5302
    Non-viable. 26 man roster.
  22. bean5302
    Corner OF positions are worth 10 runs less than center field (1.0 WAR as a baseline). So a a utility player who can cover CF and be worth 1.0 WAR would be worth 0.0 WAR if you turned them into a corner only player. Gonzalez has similar power to Rosario, historically speaking, and from a scouting perspective. Both have been in that .170 ISO land of moderate pop (like Rosario has been in the AFL), but Rosario's K rate projects very poorly considering his lack of true plus power. Add in the fact Rosario is not a good runner, and Gonzalez has more ceiling and more floor.
  23. bean5302
    Lawlar isn't going anywhere in exchange for relief pitchers, period. He's ranked in the top 10 prospects in all of MLB, and is Arizona's top prospect in a system with very little elite talent. Lawlar is already burning options with just 100 PA at AAA thanks in part to a torn ligament that required surgery on his throwing thumb in Spring Training and a pulled hammy almost as soon as he came back. Apart from that, I'd probably balk at the price tag he's going to command with that 30% K profile. Too much Javy Baez risk for my taste.
  24. bean5302
    I'd have no interest in trading Lopez for "prospects." Lopez is a known quantity on on a team friendly contract, and prospects often struggle. Berrios' 8.02 ERA first 14 games in MLB in 2016 should be a stark reminder of that fact. If going the trade for prospects direction, the Twins should be desperate to get out from under Correa's contract as well to start a rebuild which means any player with less than 3yrs of team control should be shopped hard. If the rebuild approach is the direction they take, that's up to them. I think it'd be short-sighted, but it's their team. A player like Sasaki could be a huge signing to replace Lopez in a scenario as described above, but come on. You think Sasaki is coming to a franchise that's casting off their best players with the team up for sale with a short term front office in disarray? Even if the Twins were top bidders, there's no way they're a top destination. A lot has been talked about in regard to Sasaki's preference for a lower pressure media market. Sure, Minneapolis is fine for that, but so are 20 other teams all bidding for him, and most of them aren't casting off their best players, cutting salary and up for sale.
  25. bean5302
    I'd be pretty surprised if the Twins stretched him out that fast. I'd suspect they'd follow something closer to the Raya plan where the 5.0 inning, 80 pitch starts don't happen until July, keeping in mind Raya threw 97.2 innings last year. Getting Prielipp to 100 innings would be huge as he'd probably be basically good for what is a pretty typical starter workload these days. If Prielipp breaks down throughout the season, switching to the 'pen is a viable solution.
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