bean5302

Stewart is at league minimum. If the Twins think he's better than a league minimum bargain bin reliever (I suspect they do), it's an easy yes. Topa at $1.3MM. Again, this is very close to league minimum. Spotrac predicts $1.8MM which gets a little tougher to justify, but they also have his FA market value at 2yrs $8.6MM. I think Topa probably benefitted from pitching in Seattle with his xFIP being 3.55 vs. his ERA 2.61 or FIP at 3.15. Topa's had a very, very long injury history. He doesn't miss a ton of bats, and his stuff is pretty average. Given he's now entering his age 34 season. I'd non-tender. Tonkin pitched a full year and every single time he hit the waiver wire, he was quickly snapped right back up. He switched up to a 4 seamer and missed more bats this past year, and his Stuff+ was solidly above average. Estimated at $1.5MM, I think Tonkin is a good tender option. He's been durable, and his stuff looked adequate for a pretty low price. Spotrac estimates $1.9MM, with a free agent market value of 2yrs $9.3MM. He's going to be on somebody's 26 man MLB roster.

Margot did not hit well against left handers, especially for a low value defensive position (corner outfielder), he didn't even hit adequately. Also, Margot was not brought in as a corner outfielder. He was brought in to supplement Byron Buxton when Buxton couldn't play (Buxton missed starting 76 games) and to platoon for lefty corner outfielders which would have pushed Margot over 100 games and 400 PA. Anybody thinking Margot was slated for less than 400 PA this year when the Twins acquired him is fooling themselves. Margot was basically league average at .269/.322/.391 OPS .713 wRC+ 103 against lefties. Worse than Max Kepler's .273/.305/.416 OPS .720 wRC+ 104, FWIW. Beyond the whole "platoon against lefties" argument in general is the fact you can't platoon against left handed pitching since about 80% of innings go to right handed pitchers. Even if you're trying to platoon, most plate appearances will always come against RHP for a regular player, and Margot was a black hole against RHP. In fact, the Twins desperately tried to keep Margot out of the lineup against RHP, and he still had 172 PA against RHP to 171 PA against lefties.

Thanks for agreeing with me.

Wallner hits the ball super hard so his BABIP is going to be elevated, but he will definitely have to cut the K rate to remain a truly elite bat. He had 60 grade speed in previous years, and sprint speed in small sample sizes can be off quite a bit or if there is any kind of leg injury a player is working with so it's tough to gauge how he'll be as a runner. It's an area he should focus on if he wants to maximize his value (and paycheck). Concerns over Duran's velocity are overstated. He was down 1.4mph on average from 2023, but only 0.5mph from 2022, and Duran missed quite a bit of time at the beginning of the season. He's still averaging over 100mph on his FB. Harder isn't necessarily better as his fastball graded much better this year in terms of stuff than last year because of movement. In 2024, Duran maxed out at 103.1mph. Julien looks lost at the plate. It's not like his strikeouts were out of line with last year, but Julien started swinging a lot more at pitches on the inside edge of the plate from the middle to upper part of the zone. Anywhere from 10-20% higher swing rates despite him being unable to drive those balls at all. His BB rate dropped off way too much for him to be successful. He was even swinging 5% more at "balls" inside where he's helpless. Julien was also ineffective at driving balls landing in the spots he would have punished last year. I suspect Julien has some mental block here like Wallner did to start the season. No small part may be related to the quick hook the Twins gave him in favor of F.O. favorite Brooks Lee. Speaking of... Lee has been scouted as a poor runner since before he was drafted. He's just really slow. Relies on instincts and smooth fielding skills. Zero athleticism. It's abundantly clear he wasn't ready for MLB, and the Twins probably did him a real disservice by calling his number as quickly as they did after having him rework his swing. Lee's max exit velocity of 107.4 was on the edge of bottom 10% of batters with 100+ batted ball events suggesting his raw power is probably a 40 grade tool matching his 35 grade run tool. his max throwing velocity was 83.1mph which would rank 50th of 62 3B with 50+ throws, it feels like Brooks Lee's ceiling is a lesser version of Miranda right now. Miranda has a tick faster running speed, and a tick harder throwing speed, but with a lot more raw power, and I think a similar contact based hit tool with both of them refusing to allow a pitcher to walk them. Obviously, Lee's a polished fielder which makes up for a lot of his physical limitations, but grading him out would probably be Hit = 55, Power = 40, Speed = 35, Arm = 40, Fielding = 50. Part time utility infielder is the likely outcome without some major changes to his physical abilities.

The idea the Twins can learn from the Dodgers is pretty out there. Minnesota does not have even 1/2 the resources Los Angeles does so the Twins have to build their team a different way. Top hitters by WAR *Shoehei Ohtani - 10yrs $700MM 9.1 WAR **Mookie Betts - 13yrs $392MM 4.4 WAR Freddie Freeman - 6yrs $162MM 4.0 WAR *Teoscar Hernandez - 1yr $24MM 3.5 WAR *Miguel Rojas - 2yrs $11MM 2.8 WAR Will Smith - 10yrs $140MM 2.7 WAR Max Muncy - 2yrs $24MM 2.4 WAR *Free agent acquisitions **Expensive, high profile trades Every single one of those players is locked up on contracts. None of them is pre-arb. None of them are in arbitration. Over 1/2 of the players and 70% of the WAR came from outside the organization. That's $1.4 BILLION in contracts. The Twins cannot play that game. Top pitchers by WAR **Tyler Glasnow - 5yrs $137MM 3.8 WAR *Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 10yrs $300MM 2.8 WAR Gavin Stone - OMG, a player who isn't locked up. He's pre-arb! 2.0 WAR **Jack Flaherty - 1yr $14MM 0.8 WAR Clayton Kershaw - 1yr $10MM Add another $500MM or so So you know, if the Twins were to hand out $2 BILLION in contracts, they'd likely have the same kind of depth the Dodgers have. They cannot learn the "unlimited payroll" skill.

DRS and OAA are legitimate metrics, but defensive metrics are unreliable in small sample sizes. DRS is especially prone to inaccurate values without huge sample sizes because of its SSS multiplier system. OAA seems just as prone to wild shifts in value from year to year. Players don't go from elite to terrible back to elite from year to year over their careers. I felt like an image showing the reality of how unstable DRS and OAA are would be valuable. UZR/150 (which is also sketchy in SSS) is at least fairly consistent showing Santana as around league average year to year with a slow decline you'd expect from an aging player.

While I suspect the metrics don't exist for your assertion, it's fair to point out Fangraphs has Emma as 40 grade speed, and even MLB.com has him as 55 grade. Neither are acceptable to play CF at an adequate level. Rodriguez had so little last year so the metrics available on him are very small sample size at 275 innings so they're not all that reliable, but let's compare him to his peers with the most innings at CF by team. RF9 - Texas League AA 3.23 - a29 Connor Hollis (San Diego Padres) 3.16 - a25 Daulton Shuffield (Minnesota Twins) 2.98 - a24 Kenedy Corona (Houston Astros) ---------------------------------------------------------- 2.91 - a21 Emmanuel Rodriguez 2.78 - a23 Wilderd Patino (Arizona Diamondbacks*) 2.72 - a28 Jared Oliva (Seattle Mariners) 2.71 - a24 Denzel Clarke (Oakland Athletics) ---------------------------------------------------------- 2.54 - a27 Kellen Strahm (Texas Rangers) 2.51 - a27 Bryan Torres (St. Louis Cardinals) 2.43 - a23 Jose Ramos (Lo$ Angele$ Dodger$) ----------------------------------------------------------- 2.23 - a23 Diego Hernandez (Kansas City Royals) Just like when I did the AAA CF comparison, the biggest thing which jumps out at me is the utter and complete dearth of potential MLB center fielders at the high minors level. Standard of deviation = 0.29. Rodriguez's defense was probably okay in CF, but again, super SSS. It's worth noting most of the players at AA had sample sizes smaller than ideal. Rodriguez is scouted as having a strong arm so that might have contributed.

Hopefully, exiting the intense physical demands of professional sports will allow him to be able to enjoy his life pain free. He accomplished the dream of millions of people by making it all the way to the big show, and life has a lot to offer a guy still in his 20s.

Santana's fine. A solid 2 WAR player last year if you throw out the unstable SSS defensive metrics.

The Twins' defense is a weakness from the eye test and the metric I trust the most. Comparing OAA to DRS and UZR, Minnesota's fielders added anywhere from about 0.00 to 0.20 to the runs allowed of their pitchers. It might not sound like much at first, but it means the Twins' defense allowed their opponents to score 1 extra run every 5th game by UZR. It's a big deal as a single run scored has a massive impact on the likely outcome of the average game. OAA thinks Minnesota's defense was league average ranked #17 at 0 runs saved or lost. DRS has it ranked 25th with -20 runs and UZR has the Twins dead last in all of MLB at -30.5 runs. Carlos Santana gets the accolades as a defensive savant this past season, especially around these parts, since it's a positive for a Twins site. You can see how wild the DRS/OAA metrics are compared to UZR/150, and the trends. In general, I think Santana is an average-ish 1B. Losing him isn't a big deal defensively. The bigger issue is the error rates for the infielders and the lack of athleticism at 2B. Center field defense is the biggest problem in the outfield as the Twins haven't got anything for the 80-100 games Buxton will not play.

The front office sets the hitting philosophy. The hitting coach brings a methodology to carry out the front office's philosophy. It's not clear the front office is changing their philosophy when it comes to developing hitters throughout the system.

Be prepared for lots of call outs on click bait if the writers are sensationalizing topics. A title "Obvious Twins Arbitration Decision - Jhoan Duran" wouldn't have gotten the critical comments about click-bait.

Walker Jenkins honestly has no playing time above High-A Cedar Rapids, and Jenkins struggled out of the gate in Ft Myers after missing 6 weeks with a strained hamstring. Jenkins also struggled out of the gate after his promotion to Cedar Rapids, despite the overall stat line looking good. I'd put his chance of being in a Twins uniform during the regular season next year at 5%. I think the Twins pushed him from A+ to AA too quickly, and I think Jenkins is going to have a rough time in AA next year. Emmanuel Rodriguez could potentially help the Twins as early as May, I'd guess. Minnesota is incredibly thin on center field right now with no control over any player you'd want playing CF on an every day basis after the 60-80 games they might get from Buxton. That gives Rodriguez a huge leg up on chances to make the 26 man. Plus he's already on the 40 man and burned an option last year. The clock is ticking. Luke Keaschall could also get the call mid season depending on how Brooks Lee and Edouard Julien look and if Keaschall absolutely dominates. He's not required to be on the 40 man until Dec '26 so there's no reason to push him and start his clock.

Article title "dilemma" Summary from article: Article Category: Click-bait. There is obviously no dilemma on whether or not to tender Duran. It will be interesting to see how Jax and Duran fare in their negotiations. I expect Jax to go to arbitration if the Twins offer something like what MLBTR predicted (an embarrassingly low $2.6MM) since I sure as hell would with such a laughably low number.

It'd be shocking to me if the Twins traded Larnach this offseason unless it was in a package deal to acquire a different outfielder who could also cover center field. Larnach has a very low ceiling and he's already entering arbitration so he's not bringing back any top 100 style prospects. Emmanuel Rodriguez is a lot like Edouard Julien at the plate with tons of walks and tons of strikeouts. Projecting that type of approach is difficult, and a lot will hinge on how well Rodriguez can cover the plate. Julien struggles to drive balls located over a lot of the plate area, and MLB pitchers will attack weak points much more effectively than MiLB pitchers can. I'd expect Rodriguez to get the call by mid-season if he's playing really well at AAA, but I can't see him getting a job out of Spring Training.

See my comment above about Danny Santana. I'm firmly in the camp that Kirilloff is just SSS hot streak performance, not hurt/not hurt performance. As @nicksaviking asks, please provide the days/weeks where Kirilloff was hurt/not hurt. Also, if you could, please provide the explanation on why didn't Kirilloff have plus power or almost ever take walks in the minors, and why that's different from him not having any plus power or ability to take walks at the MLB level. Arguing (as you say now healed) a wrist injury is related to undiagnosable/treatable mystery back pain is just... I mean, come on... Not to mention every MLB player plays "hurt" through the course of their career or seasons. Luis Arraez just underwent thumb surgery from a torn ligament which had nagged him all year. He produced wRC+ 109 and double Kirilloff's career performance in WAR. It'd be so much easier to accept Kirilloff being a ridiculously over-hyped prospect who isn't an above average hitter at the MLB level.

The Twins can easily capable of keeping Kirilloff at league minimum which saves them $1MM. A 1 week or even a 1 month hot streak is not the same as demonstrating a players expected performance. 5/25-6/10/14 - Danny Santana = 60 PA .396/.418/.547 OPS .965. 8/1-8/24/14 - Danny Santana = 113 PA .343/.384/.524 OPS .908. You'll struggle to find a significantly better period for Alex Kirilloff.

I thought -4 runs below MLB average was "below average" based on my understanding of math. Apparently, you want to die on the hill that -4 is probably above average. I'm pretty confident in my position.

Kirilloff has a flatter, line drive swing like Joe Mauer or Trevor Larnach, not a loftier, fly ball swing which leads to home runs like Matt Wallner. Kirilloff's power has not been sapped by wrist injury, it was never a thing to begin with. 2016 - Rookie Ball ISO = .148 2017 - Tommy John surgery 2018 - A-Ball ISO = .274 2018 - A+ ISO = .188 2019 - AA ISO = .131 2020 - N/A 2021 - MLB ISO = .172 If you look at Kirilloff's stops along the way, he only demonstrated plus game power in A-Ball back in 2018. Nowhere else did Kirilloff show plus power. This is similar to Trevor Larnach's junior year at Oregon after which the Twins drafted him or Joe Mauer's burst of power in 2009. The hype machine has always spun at 10,000rpm for Kirilloff. I don't think there's any question Kirilloff gets non-tendered, and I don't think the Twins will pursue negotiating even a league minimum offer after non-tendering him. They might bring him back on a MiLB deal, but it's possible a team out there gives Kirilloff a 1yr league minimum.

The answer to the question of why relievers get pigeon-holed includes players suggesting they want to be pigeon-holed. Emotions are relevant impact baseball on and off the field, and regardless of whether or not you think relief pitchers should just be robots, they've said they're not. 1. Humans like routine, and baseball players are human. It's not just relief pitchers; there are many quotes every year about players wanting to play a specific position or wanting a specific role like a starter wanting to pitch deeper into games and how a specific role impacts them mentally or physically in their preparation. 2. Players like to get paid, and the "save" stat is used to determine pitcher compensation in arbitration, and the "closer" title gets relief pitchers dramatically larger contracts. 3. Teams and MLB also like closers because they're especially marketable. Now onto addressing your position about the value of relievers being used as soon as any high leverage situation presents itself (which is not something I've even talked about, though the strawman highway construction project in here that I didn't requisition or agree to purchase would suggest otherwise...) 4. The exact same scenario in the 5th inning and 9th inning present different leverage factors. The further into a tight game you get, the more impact a relief pitcher's performance can have on the game. i.e. you use your best reliever in the 6th inning out of desperation. If the exact same scenario exists in the 9th inning, the 9th inning scenario is much higher leverage, but you have to go to your mediocre reliever. Additionally, you could find yourself in a much higher leverage scenario in the later innings. If it's an absolute must win game, you have to roll the dice in the 6th inning with your closer because you don't know what will happen in the future, but it's a gamble. Over the course of a 162 game season, there's a fair chance the house wins at predicting the future vs. waiting until you know for certain you have high leverage and your team is very likely to win. Reserving your best pitchers for when the game is on the line is theoretically reasonable. If the Twins were to deploy Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran in a 1 run game in the 5th and 6th inning and the 9th rolls around with the game tied and the Twins put Steven Okert in to close it resulting in walk off Twins loss, I suspect both of you would absolutely lose your minds about how Baldelli "wasted" Jax and Duran. That's just me speculating, though. Using Cleveland as the example, I'd suggest the way Cleveland played the entire year is more relevant to the regular season usage of pitchers than a short, must-win, risky playoff series. Throughout the year, the best bullpen in baseball (as you put it, @chpettit19) was deployed with a fairly dedicated closer (47 saves led AL) and fairly dedicated setup guy (33 holds) and most of the time, it was Gaddis who immediately preceded Clase.

Did some numbers on that not too long ago. It probably depends on what Kepler does after his career is over since he didn't win any major awards, and wasn't part of a World Series team or anything like that. He's in that Koskie, Dozier, Smalley range for production; none of whom are HoF'ers for the Twins right now. He's also in striking distance of Justin Morneau, but Morneau was a superstar with the Twins where he won an MVP, and he was a fan favorite in addition to being been heavily involved with the Twins since his retirement. Torii Hunter is well above Kepler in production, in addition to being the face of the franchise for quite a while, and that's before he came back for a swan song, and got involved with the team post-retirement as well. If Kepler just rides off into the sunset, which seems more in line with his personality he's shown so far, I'd say he's a long shot. If he comes back to the Twins in a major capacity post retirement, he'll likely get in.

Find some quotes to that effect. The quotes I've seen from pitchers is they prefer some form of routine. Aside from that, I don't think I've ever seen anybody advocate for anything other than setup/closer roles. I'm not advocating for anything; just repeating what pitchers have talked about in the press.

Statcast ranks his "caught stealing" at -3 runs vs. average in 2024 for runners trying to steal 2B. A lot goes into whether or not teams attempt to steal bases, and the overall CS vs. SB, whether or not an attempt to throw was even made, etc. Vazquez's numbers are poor because his arm is very weak. His pop time and exchange is good to great, but his arm just doesn't have the juice, ranking 50th of 63 catchers in MLB rated by Statcast.

I suspect none of these guys are in the budget if Jax and Duran return. Between the two, that's about $8MM in bullpen expenses. Falvey seems to like his bullpen below $15MM total.

People are human with stress factors and emotions which get mixed into their thought processes. Joe Nathan talked about not wanting to close because of confidence issues when he returned from TJ. There is extra pressure associated with closing. It's all on the pitcher, no chances to come back, etc. Many pitchers have talked about the added stress of closing or the benefits of knowing their position and their job rather than just being tossed around in the bullpen and never knowing what's coming next.