bean5302
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Everything posted by bean5302
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polanconeverblinks’s 2025 Payroll Blueprint:
bean5302 replied to polanconeverblinks's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
@polanconeverblinks Very first thing I noticed... you traded for Luis Arraez and then DFA'd Arraez and released him because he's not on your roster? I mean, that's some pretty bold hatred of a guy (or a funny error) hahaha @Mike Sixel you don't need to worry. Arraez didn't even make the roster here. -
Just ball parking it. Not everybody starts working in their career path at age 18. Some work a retail or service industry job while they figure out what they're going to do or there are some internships which don't exactly pay well, etc. Kinda nit picking 45 vs. 47 years, LOL.
- 18 replies
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- simeon woods richardson
- matt wallner
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20 WAR in a Twins uniform. That's my bar for HoF. Smalley and Coskie are the only ones who make the list here.
- 12 replies
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- tom brunansky
- cristian guzman
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No, no, no, that was just miscommunication. Polanco needed the special clubhouse glue to hold his knees together. Lost in the translation. Reminds me of the old Sprint mobile bad communication commercial. "What they said was ship the Enron documents to the feds, but what they heard was rip the Enron documents to shreds. Clearly a case of bad cellular."
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The Twins cannot be relocated. They're under a guaranteed lease until 2040 with no option for early termination. A Hennepin County judge struck down a move with just 1 year left on the lease at the Metrodome back in 2000. No judge is going to allow a move with 15 years left on the lease. Furthermore, MLB owners have to approve any move, and owners would not be on board with the Twins moving any time in the near future because the Twins already have a good stadium and situation in Minneapolis. Any place the Twins could potentially get a brand new stadium deal in place with public money is currently also potential expansion location or location a team in a bad stadium position on a short term lease would potentially explore moving to. Moving the Twins to a location which would carve up an existing owner's market. So allowing the Twins to move would hurt future and/or existing MLB owners.
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Average US blue collar worker makes $50k a year in current dollars. avg. blue collar 45 years of work = 2.25MM. HVAC industry more like $3MM+ an electrician, more like $4MM+ Studies on household income level "happiness" is reached between $80-100k-ish per year on average as I recall. You're in the ballpark if you're in a blue collar skilled trade. Food industry is the lowest, skilled trades in construction/housing in the middle, with maintaining expensive equipment being the high end. In general from what I've seen.
- 18 replies
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- simeon woods richardson
- matt wallner
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First, he was straight out of the draft and the Twins assigned him to Ft. Myers, which is pretty typical for a college pick, and certainly better than being assigned to rookie ball. Amick only had 77 plate appearances so it's not like he had time to move up or that he's not on track. HIs batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was only .239, which is super low, and probably just unlucky. If we change his line to a normal .300 BABIP he's like .250/.380/.440 OPS .820 wRC+ 130ish instead of his already wRC+ 120 figure. 30% better than league average isn't impressive? It's not Earth shattering or something, but that's a very solid showing in a small sample size.
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Next time an argument about millionaires vs. billionaires in regard to owners dominating the poor pitiful players.... amirite? Seriously, though. Soto will likely never have even close to Attanasio's money. Players actually pay taxes on their income. Just for funsies, threw this together quick. Numbers might be off a bit because I may have forgotten something. Assume Soto puts 40% of his net income into investments and those investments earn 4.00% (which is low, but not a bad rate for such huge dollar amounts and sure beats him being bankrupt like many players blowing through everything they've got). Also assumes zero endorsement deals or any other income sources, blah blah blah. He ends up at $467MM net worth at age 40. *Nominal tax rate is just a loose guess, players pay taxes to the state where the game is played for each game, and Soto will obviously donate to charities, etc to reduce his tax burden, etc, etc etc.
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Agree with @Greggory Masterson here on needing a little more info and a little less rage. Obviously, this article hit you the wrong way, but no idea why? Do you think the players are being unfairly categorized or do you think the idea any bad clubhouse presence is a horrible idea? Maybe you're upset it didn't include a player you thought it should? I don't think exploring the potential of getting performance from a clubhouse diva on a discount is a bad idea, but there are plenty of guys with iffy reputations in the public eye. Max Scherzer called Justin Verlander a "diva" in the clubhouse, and Max has a reputation for being essentially bat-$#!4 insane. From Tim Anderson to Marcus Stroman and even Max Kepler, there are rough catches on the armor as soon as anything negative is reported about a player.
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90th percentile in A-ball for a 22yr old high draft pick slugger at 3B is kind of expected. The issue with being the 10th best 3B prospect is that SS and 2B prospects who wind up not having the range get pushed to 3B a lot. There's not a ton of information you can really get from a 21 year old prospect just out of the draft (now technically 22), but Amick did hit well in Ft Myers with some pop, not unreasonable K rates and good walk rates. The biggest ding was the batting average, but when you have a .239 BABIP, there's plenty of room for that to be more impressive. The move to Cedar Rapids will hopefully be fun to watch! Amick is the Twins' #11 prospect in MLB's rating, #39 for Fangraphs. https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/twins/billy-amick-701771 Here's hoping he proves the scouting reports to be overly bearish and Amick really takes off.
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Mark L. Attanasio, the owner of the Brewers, has an estimated net worth of $700MM. I think it was like $450MM a few years ago. Mark Walter, the controlling Dodgers' owner has a net worth of $6B. If prospective buyers are interested, but they don't have enough money, they'll pool together with an ownership group so I don't think we need to sweat it too much.
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It's hard to dig up history on Herr and why some Twins fans who've been around for so long hate him, haha. https://www.twincities.com/2009/07/25/tom-powers-twins-have-employed-some-strange-characters-during-dome-era/ https://coffeyvillewhirlwind.wordpress.com/2009/04/24/1988-brunansky-for-herr/ I found plenty about how Herr loved playing for the Cardinals and liked his team. He's in the Cardinals' HoF. He only played 1/2 a season with the Twins, and his performance wasn't bad (1.5 WAR in 86 games), but fans seem to be angry at Herr personally. Brunansky produced the same value as Herr did in 143 games for the Cardinals, btw. Bruno was playable as a starter for a couple years after the trade, but he didn't have a single 2.0+WAR campaign again.
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Actually, for generating interest in terms of buyers, it's a good move. The new owner can then cut him and be the hero, if the public actually has the reaction most people expect. That said, it'd probably be a bad idea in terms of getting the desired asking price. New prospective owners are going to be looking for a return on their investment. They do not care about who is on the roster. The bigger the return (more they can increase value), the better, and signing Bauer would potentially decrease the sale price. So if the Pohlad's want to drop the sale price for the team to increase interest without looking like they're not generating interest already, it'd be an interesting strategic choice. I don't see the Twins signing free agent splash players, especially including Bauer. But if we're just advocating for on field value vs. cost while considering the bad reputation of the player, there is no player the Twins could sign with a likely better return in that capacity.
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I asked you this elsewhere. What possible reason would Sasaki have for signing with the Twins vs. 29 other suitors? The Twins bring a lame duck owner/front office/coaching/manager. Small endorsement market. History of poor treatment of other KBO/Japanese players. A team which has missed the playoffs 3/4 recent years competing against 2 rising teams who did make the playoffs last year. I'm sure the Twins will go all in on recruiting him, but the Twins are going to be eliminated almost immediately.
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This is nonsense. Utility player = player who plays many positions; who isn't entrenched at a specific starting position. Willi Castro is good enough to be a starter, but he's been used as a utility player. Marwin Gonzalez was good enough to be a starter, but he was used as a utility player. Tommy Edman was just signed as a utility player for 5yrs and $74MM. You think the Dodgers are paying $74MM to a guy not good enough to play? On the other side of things, why wasn't Nick Gordon used as a utility player by Miami? Why didn't Detroit use Javy Baez as a utility player? Why wasn't Trevor Larnach used at catcher and shortstop years ago? None of those guys were good enough to be a starter. See Baseball Reference. I trust that's a fairly trustworthy source for baseball related information? I emboldened your unpopular (due to being incorrect, IMO) definition of the term at the end. https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Utility_player#:~:text=A utility player or utility,with a lot of flexibility.
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What's your sales pitch to get him to Minnesota? If I was arguing against the Twins I'd say. The team is being sold so all the people you're negotiating with are lame duck representatives who probably won't be there next year. The coaches and manager are probably gone, too. The Twins have treated their Korean and Japanese players poorly. Talk to Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Byung-Ho Park about their experiences with the Twins, and how quick management was to move on. Kenta Maeda wasn't necessarily treated poorly, but the Twins didn't do him any favors, either. Endorsement value with the Twins will be limited as the team doesn't have wide spread appeal. There are better endorsement deals available in other lower pressure markets with a good history of supporting Japanese players like Seattle. Finally, the Twins didn't make the playoffs for the 3rd time in 4 years last year, they're cutting payroll, and other teams in the AL Central look better positioned in terms of open window to the playoffs right now.
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Pretty sure I saw San Diego advance in the playoffs despite playing in the toughest division in baseball, and then push the Dodgers to the brink of elimination last year as well.
- 110 replies
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- carlos correa
- pablo lopez
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The Twins do not have one of the highest floors. We're only through Winter meetings and the Twins have already dropped from 4th to 7th, and the team isn't signing essentially any of the 117 WAR of free agent value out there who will be going elsewhere. The Twins' 44 WAR is only 4 points higher than 9 other teams, most of whom are expected to be active in free agency yet. That's also not the teams' floor. That's the team's near ceiling, assuming over 450 PA for Correa, Lewis, Wallner, Buxton???, Miranda, and 169-196 innings from Ryan, Ober and Lopez. We're talking legitimate best case scenarios. The Twins also do not have one of the strongest farm systems. They rank #18 in Fangraphs currently, and I suspect they'll rank similar elsewhere. Brooks Lee, David Festa and Zebby Matthews all exceeded rookie status so they've dropped off some lists.
- 110 replies
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- carlos correa
- pablo lopez
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Ahmed Rosario is NOT a utility player. He's a shortstop who plugged an emergency hole a couple times, but he had never been deployed as a utility guy until the Rays decided to see how it worked, and Rosario was a disaster in the outfield. Rosario played 7 games in his entire MiLB career at 3B. SS was the only position he ever played. 2017 - 100% SS 2018 - 100% SS 2019 - 99.8% SS, 0.2% CF 2020 - 100% SS 2021 - 89.2% SS, 10.8% CF 2022 - 96.5% SS, 3.5% LF 2023 - 81.1% SS, 18.9% 2B https://www.fangraphs.com/players/amed-rosario/15518/stats?position=SS Quick crash course on defensive stuff for people who don't know. DRS = Defensive Runs Saved. Preferred metric for Baseball Reference UZR/150 = Ultimate Zone Rating over 150 games. My preferred advanced metric because it's much more stable than the other two, and it projects over a full year. OAA = Outs Above Average - (Statcast/MLB) Fangraphs' preferred metric. RngR = I highlighted this in the outfield for Rosario because his range is a huge problem. Notice how Rosario's range in CF is actually better than the corners. That's because CF is easier to play as balls don't slice and hook as much in CF, there's just way more ground to cover. The reason Rosario is terrible in the corners is he can't read the ball off the bat or the ball's trajectory well so he gets a super late jump on it or runs bad routes because he has never been an outfielder. I'm not saying there is no possible way the Twins would sign a SS who can't hit well, and try to deploy him as a utility player, but it doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Also, the Pohlads signing off any any free agents before Falvey purges some salary seems unlikely to me. The ownership proved they were unwilling to even expand payroll a small amount over budget last year at the deadline.
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If you're arguing Boyd's performance year didn't matter to teams, knock yourself out.
- 53 replies
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- christian vazquez
- chris paddack
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I'm sure the Twins made a "competitive offer" to Soto and a bunch of other big name free agents. They just couldn't make a deal work, LOL.
- 6 replies
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- winter meetings
- derek falvey
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I think the biggest thing I'd want when funding a stadium with public money is a guarantee the games must be available to the general public for free. It's abhorrent to ask the public to fund something, then tell them they have to pay to use it, too. Just like my seething hatred of toll roads.
- 6 replies
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- winter meetings
- derek falvey
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