bean5302

The Twins are for sale, the front office, manager and coaches are in lame duck status, the team failed to make the playoffs last year, the ownership has cut payroll, and attendance is poor. An elite international free agent is far more likely to sign with a team where he'll know the people he's working with in 6 months.

I'd agree the team probably hasn't improved, but 73-78 win team is way lower than projections based on WAR. It'd probably take injuries to Lopez, Correa and a couple others to flop that hard.

Since I didn't see a final roster in the post: C - Ryan Jeffers 1B - Jose Miranda 2B - Royce Lewis 3B - Brooks Lee SS - Carlos Correa LF - Trevor Larnach CF - Byron Buxton RF - Matt Wallner DH - Donovan Solano BC - Jair Camargo UI/UO - Brendan Donovan UO - Austin Martin UO - DeShawn Keirsey AAA Depth - Edouard Julien, Payton Eeles, Emmanuel Rodriguez Rotation? SP1 - Pablo Lopez SP2 - Joe Ryan SP3 - Bailey Ober SP4 - Simeon Woods Richardson SP5 - David Festa AAA Depth - Zebby Matthews, Andrew Morris, Marco Raya Bullpen BP1 - Jhoan Duran BP2 - Griffin Jax BP3 - Brock Stewart BP4 - Justin Topa BP5 - Ronny Henriquez BP6 - Kody Funderburk BP7 - Scott Alexander BP8 - Jorge Alcala AAA Depth - Cole Sands, Louie Varland, Matt Canterino In the scenario the Twins non-tender Willi Castro or trade him for something not relevant to the roster. Vazquez and Paddack are moved with no relevant return by covering half their salaries. All in all, I think this is probably an 84-85 win team.

Ah, Correa is going to be the Twins shortstop for the foreseeable future. He's got 4 guaranteed years left on his contract, and he just turned 30. I'd be surprised if he moved off SS before that time period was up (a33 season). No idea who the backup is at this point. The Twins are solidly incompetent when it comes to choosing defensive positions and coaching defense.

Every single team in baseball has salary limitations, and every team in baseball has done "salary dumps" to improve. The Yankees dumped Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela on the Twins to justify the cost of the Donaldson contract for example. Camargo's .212/.290/.403 wRC+ 76 experience in AAA last year says he has quite a bit left to prove. Projection models suggest .203/.258/.346 at the MLB level for a wRC+ 70. Vazquez bat, but with a questionable glove. He's emergency depth the Twins didn't even want to play when they had to call him up. I think you're right about finding a rebound MiLB contract guy as depth like a Max Stassi.

Like it or not, Ryan Jeffers is a successful, veteran MLB catcher who has tried a number of different approaches behind the plate with a glove or next to it with a bat. The kind of player serious young guys seek out based on your suggestion. Jeffers worked on his game and sought the help of Twins coaches like Conger (defense) and Popkins (offense) to improve weaknesses in his game. He didn't just do things randomly on his own and ignore the Twins' front office and coaches. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5295401/2024/02/24/twins-catcher-ryan-jeffers/ The new theory on setting up middle-middle is a Twins philosophy which Ryan Jeffers adopted because he's willing to try new things. Vazquez doesn't have to drop as low as Jeffers to get low strike calls because he's already super short. That allows Vazquez the opportunity to stand taller. He can't teach height.

I have never subscribed to the "mentor" concept. It's always felt as some excuse to keep a non-quantifiable value player people personally like on the roster. Vazquez isn't any better than Jeffers at controlling the run game or game calling or even catcher framing as recently as 2022. Vazquez has a different receiving position than Jeffers and he's much shorter than Jeffers (or likely any other catcher replacing him). Vazquez can't mentor players to be 5'8" tall so they get more strike calls in certain areas, and the Twins had Jeffers use a different spot technique in the hopes of getting more strikes. The techniques Vazquez uses are going to be overruled by the Twins' coaching staff and front office's preferences and the new catchers 3-5 years of development. Joe Mauer didn't teach Drew Butera how to hit or Josmil Pinto how to catch.

That's probably directly from MLBTR's free agent predictions. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/2024-25-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

Christian Vazquez $10MM AAV. 2024 = +0.8 fWAR, -0.2 bWAR Travis d'Arnaud $6MM AAV. 2024 = +1.8 fWAR, +1.1 bWAR Austin Hedges $4MM AAV. 2024 = +0.4 fWAR, -0.6 bWAR Yasmani Grandal FA. 2024 = +1.4 fWAR, +0.6 bWAR James McCann FA. 2024 = +0.2 fWAR, +0.8 bWAR Danny Jensen FA. 2024 = +0.5 fWAR, +0.7 bWAR Gary Sanchez FA. 2024 = +0.3 fWAR, +0.2 bWAR (2023 = +1.6 fWAR, +1.7 bWAR) Luke Maile FA. 2024 was terrible in 154 PA. 2023 = +0.4 fWAR, +0.9 bWAR The thing about Vazquez is he's not better than a number of other options, and the free agents who have signed are making half as much. Drier than the Sahara (in terms of value) is applicable to Vazquez himself. The guys being dismissed in this article (Grandal and Sanchez) are substantially better than Vazquez. Vazquez is a bad MLB player with a sizable salary. He does provide some floor in that he's solid defensively and durable, but I think it's going to cost the Twins eating at least $5MM of his salary or a significant prospect to move him. Not sure it makes sense unless the Twins are investing in a long term replacement on their roster.

No, and the chances he is able to replace a 4-5 WAR SS (one of the best players in the game) is 1% at best. Correa was the #1 overall draft selection in 2012 and arguably the best shortstop in MLB just a few years later. Culpepper struggled at the plate in A+ ball last year and his fielding is probably middle of the road at best. 25% shot making MLB at all right now.

I'm interested to know why the Twins like Winkel so much? He'll be 25, he struggled at the plate (wRC+ 65) due in large part to plate discipline 6.4% BB, 30.3% K, couldn't catch base runners and he allowed 5 passed balls in just 576 innings. I'd be surprised if the Twins couldn't find a better veteran option on a MiLB deal, but maybe I'm missing something?

@old nurse caught something I somehow totally overlooked. The trade isn't Jhoan Duran + Willi Castro for Dalton Rushing the trade is Jhoan Duran + Willi Castro for Dalton Rushing and Alex Vesia (excellent results lefty reliever) Vesia and Castro are pretty much a wash so that winds up essentially being Duran for Rushing directly. I don't think there's a chance the Dodgers do that. I didn't mention it earlier because the "C grade prospect" is a very gray term, but what I consider a "C grade prospect" probably isn't going to be able to bury the negative equity in Paddack or Vazquez. The Padres trade for Phil Hughes is a good example. The Twins still ate $5MM of Hughes' 2019 salary and threw in a Comp B pick to move him. If you want to move dollars off the books this year with all the RSN issues, I think for Vazquez, you might be talking a top 15ish prospect like Ricardo Olivar or Cory Lewis or something of that nature. Paddack is going to require a little less, but it's not going to be a non-prospect. At least in my opinion.

Big payment for Rushing, but I can see the logic in it. With Graterol slated to miss a lot of next year after shoulder surgery, and the Dodgers needing some versatility, I think the move works for them, too. I think the bullpen will suffer pretty hard from the move, in productivity and depth, though. I wouldn't be willing to bet on Grichuk being much better than Manny Margot, to be honest. A career wRC+ 102 guy after having the best expected metrics of his entire career at age 32. There's a reason you can get him at $5.5MM AAV on a short contract. Walker, at age 34-36 is a signing I can't get behind at all. Way, way too much money is tied up long term for a team with a ton of pre-arb and arb eligible players, and an aging Walker likely in decline makes a very bad situation far worse. $37MM + $22MM + $15MM + $20MM = $94MM of a $135MM payroll tied up in 4 guys with $90MM on the books for them in 2026 when tons of guys will be making way more. Henriquez is out of options so you can't stash him in AAA, though I think he's fairly interchangeable with Varland, who does have an option. I'm also skeptical the Pohlad family is interested in a sales pitch to expand payroll. They've checked out and are ready to move on. From my many years of experience working directly with executives and corporate investment, it doesn't follow normal business practice. I'd suspect any additional spending is considered profit reduction and the Pohlad's are just looking to avoid cutting the payroll significantly to avoid blowback. Assuming the Pohlad's are on board with the expanded payroll, I'd think this is a 88-89 win team with a very good shot at the playoffs provided the Twins get lucky with bullpen health. This is also a team where I don't think there's a snowball's chance at addressing any injury depth issues at the deadline in general.

Oh, I know, and I get it. The overall sentiment on this site has been pretty critical and dismissive of Rooker since 2021. Much more negative than I even felt from from what I considered bizarre detractors of Wallner. I think it's fair to say there were a lot of commenters and writers who didn't even view Rooker as a 6.5 out of 10, more like a 4 out of 10, but I was using your comment as a surrogate for general sentiment. All teams do miss, but to miss that badly with that many signs should be a serious mark. I used an example of Nomar Mazara when evaluating Alex Kirilloff recently. The Rangers and White Sox gave Mazara opportunity after opportunity, the same with the Twins and Kirilloff. You have to do it when you have guys which rank up quick, destroy upper minors pitching and have significant flashes of plus value at the MLB level. The Twins literally gave a29-a31 Kyle Garlick more opportunity (299 PA) than a25-a26 Rooker (234 PA).

I think that's a good plan. I wouldn't even mind a straight 4 year deal at like $28MM or something since Jeffers showed how he was able to adjust his plate approach to radically reduce the K rate over the past few years. Jeffers is a starting caliber catcher so he's a great backup, and he's been pretty durable. I also like that his value isn't coming from pitch framing inflation. I would not want to give a pitch framer specialist a long term deal with the threat of robo umps.

Vazquez was worth -0.3 bWAR in 2023 and -0.2 bWAR in 2024; he was worth 0.9 fWAR and 0.8 fWAR in those years, respectively. If we average it all out, Vazquez was worth an average of 0.6 WAR per season over the past two years. Stallings was worth -0.6 bWAR in 2023 and +1.8 bWAR in 2024; he was worth -0.4 fWAR and +0.9 fWAR respectively. Averaging that out, +0.9 WAR per year. He was better than Vazquez. It'd be awfully hard to find a catcher worse than Vazquez, to be honest.

Pretty detailed plan. I'd expect about 86-87 wins out of that team which is an improvement of a couple wins over current and it carries a decent chance at the playoffs as a WC team. Not sure in the final locations of a couple guys, but it's not relevant since you're not getting anything of note back for departing players.

Exactly, and it makes 2026 look even worse. Actually, maybe not. I don't view Vazquez as a viable MLB caliber catcher anyway.

There is an enormous difference in the Padres and Royals compared to the Twins. Night and day. The Twins had 5 years of experience with Rooker, they drafted and developed him, and they evaluated him as MiLB roster filler or AAAA injury depth. That's a huge statement, and a big red flag to every other team in baseball. When guys hit age 27, the writing is on the wall. No team lets what the view as a quality prospect get to age 27 without giving them an extended shot because it's completely negligent. Rooker might as well have been a guy with a conviction on his criminal record looking to get a job at a Fortune 500 company. The background check is going to torpedo him like 95% of the time based on reputation alone.

Joe Ryan would have more trade value than Ober because of the ceiling he's shown and the exciting K rates, but shipping Joe Ryan off doesn't address the primary need the Twins have, which is payroll relief. The Twins save a net of, at most, a projected $3.0MM doing this because they'll still need to pay somebody $0.8MM to take Ryan's spot on the 26 man. I do think at least 2 of the starters (Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, SWR, Festa, Matthews) will be moved this offseason, but the one which actually makes sense is Lopez from an objective needs standpoint. Then again, I don't think Falvey is great at budgeting.

SWR looks borderline to me. While there has been a lot of analysis surrounding him getting tired and losing velo as the year got late, his late year velo was close to his early year velo when he was successful. Scouting probably just caught up to him. Not sure how the rest of the league sees him.

Jeffers has some trade value. He's not moving mountains because he's already in Arb2 and there's a ceiling. Step 1) Twins trade Jeffers for something (not an near MLB ready or good catcher because teams won't partner for that) Step 2) Twins add a catcher that costs more than Jeffers who maybe isn't as good. Step 3) Twins add at least 1 more catcher in 2026. The outcome of a Jeffers trade is the Twins create a new problem, and the current problem is worse than it was before the trade.

Zebby Matthews has just as much ceiling as Festa does, and a better floor than Festa as well. Not sure why writers are so enamored with Festa? Results don't really matter. Matthews didn't get the opportunity to hone his craft in AAA like Festa did, and out of the gate, Matthews was more than respectable. His ceiling is still there, just like Berrios' ceiling was still there after his 8.05 ERA debut. Festa is currently working on developing a curveball which would be huge to his floor. As MLB scouting reports get out on Festa, there's a real danger of a sophomore slump due to his 3 pitch repertoire, including a changeup that Stuff+ thinks isn't really even MLB caliber, but PitchBot thinks is good? In any case, sure, the Twins could trade some pitching depth for a cheap semi-established position player with upside, but parting with Matthews or Festa isn't likely going to bring back a player with more than everyday regular as their ceiling.

I don't really have to read this article. I'm guessing every single player on the 40 man gets one of these? Trading Jeffers is non-sensical in a special kind of way. Jeffers IS a consistent catcher, just not he catcher TD writers and fans wanted after a crazy luck fueled 2023 homer-fest. There are plenty of streaky player in MLB. Jeffers is a wRC+ 105ish catcher with average-ish defense. 2.0 WAR kinda guy in 80-100 G caught per year, with another 20 G as DH. Jeffers is also the only catcher in MLB or MiLB who is controlled by the Twins past this coming year and likely to be on a 26 man roster beyond 2025. There is no way for the Twins to draft their way out of this problem. They either need to pay more than Jeffers costs to sign a FA for the same production or trade Jeffers for another catcher with more control, and then still sign or trade for another catcher.

Exactly. Worse players get cut. Their job is to evaluate talent, man. The signs on Rooker were clear as day as far as I'm concerned. Btw, Rooker just put up a better season than any Twins player has put up in Falvey's career with the Twins excluding Brian Dozier's 6.0 WAR 2017 season. Rooker literally put up a 5.1 fWAR campaign. He was not a 6.5 out of 10. I wrote an article about Rooker before the Twins carelessly dismissed him comparing him to Larnach (who was much less projectable). Missing on a 5.0 WAR guy is not forgivable. It's an absolutely catastrophic failure. I do mean absolutely catastrophic. When the Twins kicked Rooker to the curb as a toss in to clear 40 man roster space, it sent a strong message to the rest of the league. The Twins don't see any talent in this guy, and they're the ones who drafted and developed him. The Twins destroyed Rooker's professional reputation, period. So it's not a huge wonder why the Padres and Royals weren't willing to have more faith. The Twins never gave Rooker a chance. They had complete tunnel vision on their "hit tool" guys like Larnach and Kirilloff, both with obvious and serious flaws. Now Larnach has made himself a potential every day player by revamping his plate approach, but Kirilloff just retired because the writing was on the wall. Stop defending the biggest screwup since David Ortiz.