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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhh, I see. All those players who made the All Star games suck, and they didn't contribute anything to all of Falvey's teams not looking like the Chicago White Sox last year.
  2. bean5302
    @Nick Nelson vs. BTV seems pretty spot on to me. 1. Jenkins vs. Jenkins +58.4 2. Lewis vs. Ober +54.1 3. Ober vs. Ryan +53.5 4. Ryan vs. Lopez +47.8 5. Lopez vs. Lewis +47.3 6. Lee vs. Rodriguez +45? Nobody is asking for him on BTV 7. Rodriguez vs. Wallner +38.1 8. Wallner vs. Lee +37.0 9. Festa vs. Jax +28.8 10. Jax vs. Correa +25.8 11. Duran vs. Duran +24.7 12. Matthews vs. Keaschall +23.3 13. Keaschall vs. Larnach +22.6 14. Larnach vs. Festa +19.5 15. Jeffers vs. SWR +19.1 16. Correa vs. Julien +16.5 17. Miranda vs. Jeffers +16.2 18. Raya vs. Miranda +16.1 19. SWR vs. Matthews +12.9 20. Julien vs. Buxton +10.4 The list is pretty close to identical. The only swap is Raya vs. Buxton making the very edge, and only a Correa is more than a handful of rank spots off. If the Twins go to a World Series in the next 2 years, here's my rank of how important these players are in regard to likelihood they made major contributions to carry the team. WAR baseline expected vs. potential. 2.5 for position players/starters 1.0 for utility guys, 0.5 for relievers. 1. Lewis 2. Wallner 3. Correa 4. Duran 5. Jax 6. Everybody else.
  3. bean5302
    Buxton ranks #20th overall on BTV's values I saw as well. Right on the cusp. I tend to agree with that assessment. He's borderline top 20 value, which is to say, not a ton.
  4. bean5302
    What's this "core" Falvey built? Here's the core Falvey inherited. 2009 MVP, 6x All Star and HoF'er Joe Mauer with 2 years of team control 2021 All Star Eduardo Escobar with 2 years of team control 2008, 2017 All Star Ervin Santana with 2 years of team control 2015 All Star Brian Dozier with 3 years of team control 2021 All Star Kyle Gibson with 3 years of team control 2017 All Star Miguel Sano with 4 years of team control 2022 All Star Byron Buxton with 5 years of team control 2019 All Star Jorge Polanco with 6 years of team control 2018-2019 All Star Jose Berrios with 6 years of team control 2021 All Star Taylor Rogers with 6 years of team control 2022-2024 All Star Luis Arraez with 6 years of team control Seriously... you'd think Falvey inherited a team of garbage the way you talk. 1B - Mauer 2B - Dozier 3B - Sano SS - Polanco LF - Rosario CF - Buxton RF - Kepler Util - Escobar SP1 - Santana SP2 - Gibson SP3 - Berrios 8 players with multiple years of team control produced more value than any player on the Twins that Falvey has ever developed in his tenure. EVER. Because Falvey has never seen one of his drafted/signed/developed prospects ever produce a single 3 WAR season.
  5. bean5302
    It's a value proposition, like deferrals in a contract.
  6. bean5302
    Lewis is 6'2" tall. Not sure how light you expect him to be at that height? When it comes to speed, 2 ACL surgeries, a severe quad strain and a hip strain make it impossible to tell what his speed will be. Trevor Plouffe has talked about Lewis' throwing issues, and Plouffe seemed in disbelief the Twins haven't been able to coach Lewis on the issue. Lewis' arm is strong enough to play SS. Lewis' speed should grant him the range to play SS. Could he also play 3B/2B? Sure. 1B? I hope not. SS = +0.75 WAR 2B = +0.25 WAR 3B = +0.25 WAR 1B = -1.25 WAR
  7. bean5302
    Falvey hasn't been successful as a GM if the mark of success is pursuing a championship. 23% of teams in baseball have been to a World Series since Falvey took over, and 33% have been to a league championship game. The Twins are not one of those franchises despite Falvey inheriting essentially a playoff team with a very strong core. He was given a superior budget for the division, a superior core, a huge budget for overhauling the team's development, excellent facilities which had been freshly remodeled, and he produced bupkis (for all those unfamiliar with that term, it means goat poop).
  8. bean5302
    Seattle has made it pretty clear they're not interested in trading their rotation guys, but there are some teams out there who might be. I think Brooks Lee is a tough one to gauge. Considering how awful and overmatched he was last year, there are plenty of teams who likely don't view Lee as an attractive acquisition. There are also some other teams who likely expect Lee to make some adjustments and potentially turn into a star.
  9. bean5302
    There's a lot to consider from the Twins' perspective. Only the Twins had Berrios, and Toronto wasn't the only team making offers so the lost opportunity of other trade offers we don't even know about. From a BTV standpoint, Toronto made a massive overpay for Berrios and the Twins took it, but what if the Padres were offering MacKenzie Gore? Anyway, there's also the NPV to consider. A quality player now is worth more than a quality player in the future. I think the trade went poorly for the Twins as of right now. The Twins had the 2nd most valuable pitcher available on the trade market at the deadline in 2021 and they turned that huge asset into one guy who is almost assuredly looking at the twilight of a short and unremarkable career, and another guy who looks like they might stick around with some minimal production for a few more years. I don't believe in SWR in the rotation long term at this point (I'd take Festa over SWR), and Austin Martin has a very low ceiling at this point. While Simeon Woods Richardson still has a chance, the way he folded up shop in the 2nd half as hitters adjusted, and even potentially ran out of steam despite being an 7 year professional under the age of 25 doesn't bode well for him being successful/better conditioned/more reliable in the future.
  10. bean5302
    Not to mention Correa's response to the Giants, which was to cut off all communication, would have made it awfully clear to the Mets the "negotiation tactic" wouldn't work. Ultimately, I don't think any team would be terribly concerned about Correa's health on a 4 year contract which will start rapidly dropping in cost in 2026. I suspect many teams would be interested in Correa if the Twins were willing to eat $5-10MM off the contract in the next 2 years.
  11. bean5302
    Varland's pitches don't move well. In the bullpen, Varland can add velocity to help compensate, but I see him as a middle reliever ceiling. I've seen the same problem with him in the bullpen that I saw in the rotation which is Varland gives up a lot of very hard contact.
  12. bean5302
    Falvey's overseen eight MLB drafts. Not one of his drafted players has produced a 3.0+ fWAR season for the Twins in their careers. Not one has ever been an All Star, and while you don't like it, I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect Falvey to have at least produced a single bonafide star player by now. College players, on average make the MLB in 2-3 years. High school players, on average, make MLB in 3-4 years. That's "on average" not on exception, and last year, here are the players who made the All Star Game within Falvey's draft range in the American League alone... Adley Rutschman Gunnar Henderson Steven Kwan Bobby Witt, Jr. Jordan Westburg Riley Greene Jarren Duran David Fry Garrett Crochet Tarik Skubal Mason Miller Logan Gilbert That's 12 players for 15 teams who were "drafted" during Falvey's tenure who were in the All Star game. Luis Arraez was signed by Terry Ryan in 2013, dude. So yeah, it's a feather in Terry Ryan's cap. The same feather that Bill Smith gets for the load of players he signed which represented the Twins in an All Star game. Feel free to keep offering unlimited excuses.
  13. bean5302
    I mean, any of these guys could be in the ballpark of 6-10 depending on personal bias.
  14. bean5302
    Correa's "net" trade value is a little greater than Luke Keaschall's on BTV, and BTV has proven to be pretty accurate.
  15. bean5302
    Wasn't even slightly worried about Joe Ryan's injury. It's not joint related and didn't require surgery.
  16. bean5302
    Paddack is not good enough to be in the Twins' rotation, and he's not good enough to be in a serious playoff competitor's rotation all year. He is good enough to eat the 80 or so innings he will be able to pitch before becoming hurt on a team down a starter out of the gate. Paddack hasn't pitched a full season in his entire 6 year career. Thinking he'll be A) Healthy and B) Productive (ERA under 4.00) for the first time since 2019 so the Twins can move his salary after they've already eaten 70% doesn't seem realistic to me. If the Twins care about clearing space, now is the time to move Paddack.
  17. bean5302
    Have you decided Paddack is going to "dominate" in the bullpen based on his 5.0 innings of 5.40 ERA work there in 2023 where he pitched against the Angels, Athletics and Rockies to close out the season?
  18. bean5302
    MLB is definitely unhealthy. The RSN death has completely turned the league upside down. Similar to how everything imploded in the early 90s setting off a total revolution in baseball. That said, 23 of 30 teams have made the playoffs in 2021-2024. No team has been to a league championship series or world series more than 2x in that span, and only 3 teams haven't missed the playoffs (Dodgers, Astros, Braves) in that span. Chance of making playoffs? 77% vs. 100% in a perfect world Chance of making a league championship? 33% vs. 53% in a perfect world Chance of making a World Series? 23% vs. 27% in a perfect world. There is a ton of competition in MLB. The Dodgers are really stirring things up, and I do believe they've gotten to the point rules about deferrals need to be put into place to protect the future of the game.
  19. bean5302
    So what if the Twins don't make any more moves? With the current roster, the team constructed as-is looks about like this in my opinion. If the Twins finish 4th in the AL Central at 84 wins, it was a heck of a division, which might wind up being the case. Obviously, opinions can vary, but ask yourself whether or not you'd bet money on being off my more than +/- 0.5 WAR on these estimates for likely (mid-range) WAR at the end of the season, and whether or not your differing expectations offset each other. First Last Mid WAR Ryan Jeffers 1.8 Jose Miranda 1.8 Royce Lewis 3.0 Carlos Correa 4.0 Willi Castro 2.5 Trevor Larnach 1.5 Byron Buxton 3.0 Matt Wallner 2.5 Edouard Julien 1.0 Christian Vazquez 0.5 DaShawn Keirsey 0.0 Austin Martin 0.0 Brooks Lee 1.0 Pablo Lopez 3.2 Joe Ryan 2.3 Bailey Ober 2.3 David Festa 1.8 Simeon WR 1.0 Jhoan Duran 1.5 Griffin Jax 1.5 Jorge Alcala 0.8 Cole Sands 0.8 Brock Stewart 0.8 Kody Funderburk 0.0 Louie Varland 0.5 Ronny Henriquez 0.0 Replacement 45 39.1 84 84 wins is the expected total. The team is "probably" an over .500 ballclub. Spotrac projects $138.6MM for the Twins' payroll at the moment which is good for 17th in MLB, just behind Baltimore and Seattle, and a tick above St. Louis. Twins fan attendance was 23rd in MLB last year.
  20. bean5302
    Alonso is going to struggle to get much over $100MM in my opinion. The rumor was the Mets have chopped their offer from the 6/150 extension offer they made last year to 3/90 with player opt outs after each season most recently. The Giants have also been tied to Alonso, and the perennially bad idea Angels are mulling a run at him as well. Alonso is this year's Boras fail, I think.
  21. bean5302
    I think 2020's flop has highlighted 2019's poor results as well. Thank goodness for Matt Wallner, otherwise the Twins aren't going to see any value from their 2019 selections, either. 2019 was okay as was 2018. An average team needs 3+ hits per draft, and no Falvey drafted player has ever earned an All Star selection for the Twins.
  22. bean5302
    The point is other teams had picks which are already producing MLB value. The fact the Twins might get something from their draft picks to help them out of the doldrums is good, but the fact they now need those picks to work out to avoid looking bad is not.
  23. bean5302
    Larnach? I'll just link my other post on the other 15-20 topic. When it comes to Larnach, his ceiling is higher than it was, but that ceiling is still just a 2 WAR left fielder, and he's already arb eligible. Larnach's effort amounted to just 1.5 fWAR in 112 games last year. Given Larnach's lengthy injury history, and Baldelli's extreme platoon tendencies, it seems unlikely Larnach will see more than 135 games a year so that's going to limit his value as well. His contributions are being over-sold again, just like they were a couple years ago when he and Alex Kirilloff were future perennial All Stars around here. I think the rest of the list is probably justifiable. https://twinsdaily.com/news-rumors/minnesota-twins/top-twins-players-2025-julien-miranda-correa/
  24. bean5302
    Money is not the end all scenario because the Twins have major trade assets. So there would have to be a caveat where prospect assets were also locked down in addition to money. I suspect the Pohlad family has tied Falvey's hands in that regard based on what we saw last year.
  25. bean5302
    If lots of things go right, sure. The Twins could win 90 games next year if, if, if. I think they're about an 84-85 win team right now. Question marks are Jose Miranda, Edouard Julien, Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Simeon Woods Richardson, and David Festa. Unexpected injuries or guys who don't play up to expectations could swing the Twins to below .500 just as easy.
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