bean5302
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Everything posted by bean5302
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The Pohlad Empire (Part Two): A Bus-ted System
bean5302 replied to Peter Labuza's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The link saying $160MM was the amount Pohlad somehow profited earned from a transit system that sold for $7.5MM is on shaky ground. Pohlad saved mass transit in the metro and took it back from being a mobster racket. Articles talking about how bus "garages" were shot? Also, while apparently the bussing line/routes were only worth $5.5MM, but profits were $2MM/yr between direct profit? Sorry, but if the company was making $2MM in PROFIT per year, it's worth a hell of a lot more than $5.5MM LOL. I'm sure the proposed buyers of the service wouldn't have any reason to make suggestions which benefit them, right? Reading the actual financial reports on page "14" (15/27), revenue was $14MM, net income was $600k. https://www.grandforksherald.com/sports/pohlad-working-poor-son-of-great-depression-to-one-of-u-s-s-wealthiest-dealmakers Pohlad operated in the gray for sure, pushing the boundaries of legal activity, and probably even exceeding them. I'm not sure how many of the readers of this site would be willing to take on the mafia and expose them publicly at a time where organized crime was in its heyday. Pohlad probably didn't have a death wish. -
Based on last year alone, yeah, Jax should be in that top 5 for sure. That said, Jax's track record doesn't look like last year, haha. I don't think it's surprising the Twins decided to keep Jax in the 'pen. Things shifted pretty dramatically for him last year so I'm sure there's uncertainty about his ability to do what he did last year for 6 innings.
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Sano's legs literally broke because he had gained so much weight so quickly and he was so sedentary. Sano developed stress reactions while the Twins wanted him to play RF in 2016. Stress reactions are not acute injuries, yet plenty of his fans tried to play it off as a result of being hit by a pitch on the shin which is impossible. Stress reactions happen from ramping up too quickly when the body hasn't adapted. It's a common injury for new runners. Sano was lazy. He shirked his responsibilities, hired his unqualified sister to be his "nutritionist," and he was often thoughtless about his behavior. Every single offseason there was another problem. I remember every year as a prospect as Sano ballooned in size, he'd make quotes about how the Twins want him bigger for power so it was good that he was gaining weight. Both Molitor and Baldelli became disgusted with Sano's conditioning and shipped him off to Ft. Myers to lose weight after Sano reached pro-ball. Sano showed up every year to Spring Training rocking like a 300lb frame because he didn't work out or eat right in the offseason. From a guy with quick reflexes and a cannon arm who was expected to excel at 3B to a player who couldn't make even routine plays reliably at 1B due to weight and lack of effort, it was the whole nine yards with that guy.
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It's wild to see the Twins Daily hype machine turn MiLB roster filler guys like age 29 season Michael Helman into expected major contributors. Nobody is going to claim Helman if he gets DFA'd. The guy was in A+ ball at age 25 after flopping hard in his initial exposure, and has 1,000 PA in AAA where he's been pretty pedestrian overall at ages 26-28. He's MiLB roster filler and emergency utility depth. Teams already have a Helman or they could have one on a MiLB contract any time they want one. Some takes in here are way, way out there.
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- mickey gasper
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I expect Emmanuel Rodriguez will be late career Joey Gallo with Byron Buxton's durability. If Rodriguez strikes out less than 40% of the time at the MLB level, I'd be quite surprised. I think Schwarber is Emma's ceiling with later Joey Gallo being the likely outcome. The floor is probably more in line with Will Benson last year.
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Comparing AL Central Rosters: Part 1 (Infielders)
bean5302 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'd expect Teel to be the starter out of the gate for Chicago. It's not like that team has anything to lose. Not sure why the 2nd best catcher WAR last year gets the lowest score, but sure. Honestly, it's way too hard to judge what the Twins are bringing to the table. It's possible Willi Castro is the starting 3B next year. Just don't know.- 42 replies
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- ryan jeffers
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Headrick would be near the top of my list as well. I'd say Jair Camargo is probably more likely a DFA candidate than Gasper or Cartaya.
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Did I not state that? Yes. Yes I did.
- 42 replies
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- walker jenkins
- emmanuel rodriguez
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Where's your data, bud? Oh... don't have any. Nevermind.
- 42 replies
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- walker jenkins
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Anything after #20 is PTBNL area. Technically worth keeping an eye on, but no expectations. Camargo doesn't appear as a top 30 org for MLB in recent years, but he did squeak in at #22 for Fangraphs. He wasn't even worth a TLDR. He wasn't on TD's recent top 30s, either from my memory. He's scouted as weak defensively, and even at age 24, he couldn't hold his own at AAA in 317 plate appearances. .212/.290/.403 was good for a wRC+ of 84. Plenty of pop, but nothing else. On the plus side for Camargo, he had a nice Dominican Winter League performance .323/.359/.495 OPS .853 in a SSS of 109 PA.
- 35 replies
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- ryan jeffers
- christian vazquez
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If a player makes MLB, that's how soon they make it. Not sure why you want to bring the guys who don't make it at all into this conversation? Internet searches will return various studies on the subject https://community.fangraphs.com/time-from-draft-until-majors/ or you can just look at the current Twins' roster, etc. Jeffers 2yrs Miranda 6yrs Lee 2yrs Correa 3yrs Lewis 5yrs Larnach 3yrs Buxton 3yrs Wallner 3yrs Vazquez 6yrs Julien 4yrs Castro 6yrs signed at age 16 (like Emma) This will be Emma's 5th year in the minors, and he was signed in 2019. International signings are more difficult to predict. Regardless, Emma has certainly not moved quickly through the Twins system. Maybe you think it's common for players to burn multiple options before making their debut? When it comes to international prospect signings, let's just look at last year's All Star Roster. 40% of them debuted faster than Emma, but if Emma doesn't have any hiccups (or the Twins are absolutely desperate), and he makes it this year, he'll be in that 40-70% range so I'm probably just being too harsh. It's not fair to call it slow, but it's certainly not fast, either. Juan Soto a19, Yordan Alvarez a22, Jose Ramirez a20, Salvador Perez a21, Isaac Paredes a21, Willi Castro a22, Anthony Santander a22, Wilson Contrares a24, Teoscar Hernandez a23, Jurickson Profar a19, Luis Arraez a22, Elly De La Cruz a21, Heliot Ramos a22, Marcell Ozuna a22.
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- walker jenkins
- emmanuel rodriguez
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Camargo is MiLB roster filler. He was only tendered because of the extreme risk of caused by the Twins' desperate catching situation. Cartaya is regarded as a solid defensive catcher, and he's is still 23 so a full write off is a bit aggressive. Since he plays catcher, he doesn't need to hit well to hold a backup spot down, and at age 22 last year, he was solid in AA. .236/.354/.379 OPS .733 wRC+ 111, though it came with a .327 BABIP. Once promoted to AAA, Cartaya's numbers dropped off badly, but the BABIP being at .262 suggests there may have been some bad luck involved, especially considering the high line drive rate. Then again, way too many pop ups. It's worth noting his K rate actually tightened slightly going from AA (29%) to AAA (27%). His mixed AA/AAA stats wind up at .221/.323/.363 OPS .686 wRC+ 85. Not sure if the Twins will be able to improve something. The O-Swing and Z-Swing rates are good, but the contact rate on the O-Swing is poor so it's possible Cartaya needs a swing adjustment to keep his bat flatter through the strike zone. I don't agree with labeling Gasper as a Kyle Farmer level catching asset since he was originally a catcher in college and has continued to play there primarily. I remember when Mitch Garver was written off only to put in some effort to turn himself into an average backstop. Gasper's biggest issue is going to be whether or not he can learn to swing the bat occasionally, which are issues Larnach and Julien have both struggled with. Gasper isn't going to get a lot of opportunity given his age and spurious status as a prospect. Gasper is comparable to DaShawn Keirsey, Jr. here in prospect status land. Christian Vazquez is not an MLB caliber catcher. Not sure how much worse people think the Twins' depth options could really be here...
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- ryan jeffers
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Hold Up! The Twins Might Not Cut Payroll After All
bean5302 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Then there will be another 3,650 articles (10 per day) hating on billionaires on this site to wade through, haha. -
Typically, high school draft picks make MLB between 3-4 years after drafting. Typically, college draft picks make MLB between 2-3 years after drafting. Top draft picks and elite prospects generally knock a year off that. I'm not going to agree with you.
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- walker jenkins
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Hold Up! The Twins Might Not Cut Payroll After All
bean5302 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
How I read this: Jeremy Zoll is better at PR than Joe Pohlad. We've all seen Falvey can't define or follow a budget. This just reads like more incompetence to me. I do not care about the budget. I care whether or not the front office finds a "creative" way to make the team better. -
Sept '67 Jim Kaat - 7-0, 1 Blown Save (Twins lost to Horlan's White Sox), 9 Games, 65.2 IP, 1.51 ERA, 1 Shutout Joe Horlen - 6-2, 0 Blown Saves, 8 Games, 64.1 IP, 0.84 ERA, 3 Shutouts Horlen was better than Kaat. Twins were better than White Sox despite losing back to back games to Chicago when Kaat took the mound and blew a save on the 16th, the day after Horlan beat the Twins on the 15th.
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Yes, I do seem to be the only one concerned that Walker Jenkins' stats and performance don't justify the hype around him. I compared Jenkins to his peers (all 19 of them) in a different thread. Guys who became elite at the MLB level were mostly already torching AA at Jenkins' age, but Jenkins is sandwiched between 10. Wil Myers, 11. Byron Buxton, just above 13. Carlos Correa and 14. Addison Russell. Jenkins is going to make MLB. There's no question about that. Whether he'll become Wil Myers or Jarred Kelenick remains to be seen. For what's it's worth, I was dead wrong on Royce Lewis being overrated. Re: Rodriguez. When a guy is burning options years before he gets to the big show, he's moving slow. Age doesn't matter. Years of professional baseball experience matters. Rodriguez is moving slow.
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- walker jenkins
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Former Twins. Where are They Now? 2025 Edition
bean5302 replied to stringer bell's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Be our guest Be our guest Put our service to the test Tie your napkin round your neck, cherie And we provide the rest... I might, lol, but I also might not- 339 replies
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The Twins rank 22nd in Bleacher Report currently because Festa, Matthews & Lee all graduated. If the rankings were adjusted to arbitrarily include Twins players who have lost rookie status, our farm would rank further down because a lot of other prospect players were actually good at baseball while playing at the MLB level, unlike Lee and Matthews who were both awful. When a "prospect" is lights out at the MLB level long enough to lose rookie status, but then put back onto a "prospect" list, we'd see the entire top 50 feature only players at the MLB level. It's fine everybody is so high on Walker Jenkins because it really doesn't matter, but he doesn't grade out especially well results-wise vs. future successful peer results at the same age and at A+ or higher. Jenkins is kind of in the middle of a 50/50 boom/bust group. Emmanuel Rodriguez has made Byron Buxton look like he's made of iron all while advancing very slowly through the MiLB system and producing results which come with plenty of red flags. Rodriguez already burned an option last year, and I can't imagine he won't burn a second option this year before he sees the diamond in a regular season game. Luke Keaschall is the last of the Twins top 100's, and he was borderline last year. It wouldn't surprise me if he fell off the top 100 list before spring. After Keaschall, our farm is filled with B and C grade prospects. It's not as if they couldn't rise up fast (look at Matthews last year), just that they're not going to be expected to do as well as top prospects.
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Former Twins. Where are They Now? 2025 Edition
bean5302 replied to stringer bell's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Should create a public google sheets people can update!- 339 replies
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Correct. Ronny Henriquez is pretty fringe so losing him is no biggie. Of course, I'm more concerned about Paddack blocking Twins wins from happening.
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- chris martin
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