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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I'd prefer giving him one thing at a time. Work on his plate discipline and keep hitting. Working him out at 1B over the offseason? Sure, if there is potential value there. The Twins are short on good outfield options next year. Larnach is not a great option and Bader and Castro are highly likely to be free agents leaving only Buxton and Wallner as likely starters on the roster. McCusker gets scouted poorly in the outfield, but it's very hard to use the "eye test" on big guys like Wallner and McCusker because their size makes them look more awkward than they are. In terms of RF/9, McCusker's metrics look pretty solid. The data doesn't care if the pitcher has a weird delivery or the fielder's legs don't churn as fast.
  2. bean5302
    Hopefully, Correa is figuring things out. His line is improving, but it's been mostly singles on high BABIP, and he hasn't taken a single walk in the past 10 games. Barreling up that home run was definitely nice to see.
  3. bean5302
    I'd be surprised if Keirsey was on the 26 man at the end of the month. Dedicating a roster spot to a good, but not great, pinch runner and defensive replacement isn't optimal.
  4. bean5302
    Have you seen his BABIP? It's consistently super high. Then I looked at his line drive rates... Consistently an astronomical 30% the past 2 seasons. The high K rate is generally associated with a very poor AVG/OBP, but if McCusker is able to hit 25%+ line drives at the MLB level, his OBP is going to stay over .300. Not sure what to make of him, but some experience and success can see big drop offs in K rates after a couple years. Jeffers was at 37% K in his first full season, now at 17%. Larnach down from 35% to 19%, and Rooker from 33% to 25%. With how much progress McCusker has made already, I think it's possible he could take another step forward in plate discipline. If he keeps it up through May, he needs to get a call.
  5. bean5302
    He's super rusty. Missed a lot of ST, he wasn't hitting in AAA, but the Twins called him up anyway. We'll have to see how he gets everything put together, but if the organization is committed to keeping him up, it'll likely be a week or two.
  6. bean5302
    I find his line last year in low-A unimpressive for a 2nd round all bat college hitter, he's still in the low minors, his BABIP is .500 and his ISO is a very poor .105.
  7. bean5302
    Matthews was sitting at 97-99 through ST and into the start of the AAA season. He was at 95-96 on Sunday. Could just be a sensor, but given the walks and hits, it's eye opening.
  8. bean5302
    This is what I see. Not sure if that's what you see, but the formatting should be fixed.
  9. bean5302
    No he hasn't. Lewis had a severe quad strain last year out of the gate. It wasn't hamstring related. 2021 - Torn ACL 2022 - Torn ACL 2023 - Oblique Strain 2023 - Hamstring Strain 2023 - Quad Strain 2024 - Quad Strain 2024 - Hip adductor Strain 2025 - Hamstring Strain The dual ACL reconstructions resulted in a weakening of all the muscles, tendons and ligaments in Lewis' leg. Doctors told him he'd be especially susceptible to additional strains in his leg, and that subsequent strains before he fully recovers would continue to slow the process of fully healing and strengthening his leg. The hip and quad strains are much more severe than the hamstring issue, but I do feel like the trainers have some issues at this point. Like... it's a bit much at this point. The constant aggravation to his soft leg tissue robbed him of a ton of his athleticism last year. I don't know as I believe Lewis could ever be healthy at this point, but if he can make it a few months without another lower body injury, maybe the cycle could be broken?
  10. bean5302
    The biggest news in the MiLB system to me is Zebby Matthews is giving up a lot of hits and walks with a drop off in his velocity. Matthews has never walked guys like he's been doing lately.
  11. bean5302
    Mark, Mike, Marvin... something like that.
  12. bean5302
    I don't think his swing is the problem. I think the problem is he doesn't use it.
  13. bean5302
    There are no real former bomba squad members on the team anymore. It was 6 years ago with the help of a juiced baseball. You might say "Buxton!" but he only hit 10HR that year. Nelson Cruz (41) - Retired Max Kepler (36) - Philadelphia Phillies Miguel Sano (34) - Unsigned Eddie Rosario (32) - Atlanta Braves Mitch Garver (31) - Seattle Mariners C.J. Cron (25) - Unsigned Jonathan Schoop (23) - Unsigned Jorge Polanco (22) - Seattle Mariners @Matthew Trueblood your chart graphics seem broken to me? I see teams listed multiple times, and artifacts mixed through them? In any case, yeah, it's the Eddie Julien syndrome for the Twins. Shoulder = shelf for bat. Can't waste strikes looking for mistake pitches because it doesn't work at the MLB level... or even the high minors. Ask Aaron Sabato.
  14. bean5302
    LOL, NO. It's good for 300 level seats only. So $23 for 2 is a good deal ($37-39 for 2 with online fees reg, $30-32 from the box office), but it's the same as I could find on reseller sites, and I could find lower level seats for $36 with fees. If the Twins offered a 23% discount on all seats? Maybe. That way people might actually spend on lower levels. Falvey doesn't seem to understand ticket sales or draft/development.
  15. bean5302
    While Ryan is pitching very well this year, he always has a good first half. He also always gets injured, misses a bunch of time and has a terrible second half. His xFIP is at 3.42, which is borderline ace territory at the moment though I expect that'll decline greatly as the season goes on. That said, I think Ryan's accomplishments are truly noteworthy. Expected to maybe stick as a back end #5 type guy, he's really taken his game to a new level. Traditionally, Ryan's biggest problem is his refusal to walk guys, instead challenging them as he gets behind only to watch balls go into the seats. Ryan will need to do this all year, and be even better than he has been so far to earn a bonefide "ace" title.
  16. bean5302
    It was certainly a conservative off season, but a typical one for Falvey who always seems to wait too long and overplay his hand until he finds himself short on suitors over the offseason. The Twins' likely plan: C - Jeffers 1B - France 2B - Castro (IL) SS - Correa (struggling) 3B - Lewis (IL) LF - Bader CF - Buxton RF - Wallner (IL) DH - Larnach (struggling) Util - Lee (IL) Util - Miranda (struggling, IL) Util - Keirsey BC - Vazquez (struggling) Losing 5 of your position players to the IL, and having guys like Holland and Martin on the IL in AAA has certainly been a major hit to the Twins. Even worse, the guys who were expected to be big contributors have flopped for a large portion of the season with the pressure on. While Jeffers and Buxton look great right now, they were both ice cold for the first couple weeks. The Twins find themselves in a division where the Tigers look better than expected, and they were already probably picked to be better than Minnesota to start with. The Twins are 7 games back from the division lead and 5 games out of the Wildcard if the season ended today, needing to pass 5 teams above them to make the WC3 spot.
  17. bean5302
    Pretty concerned with Zebby Matthews at this point. Game Log 1-3 = 1.80 ERA, 1.26 FIP, 12.00 K/9 (36.4%), 1.20 BB/9 (3.6%), 0.73 WHIP 4-6 = 2.92 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 10.22 K/9 (23.3%), 5.11 BB/9 (11.7%), 1.86 WHIP Skyrocketed BB rates, way more hits allowed. Matthews topped out at 97.1mph vs. 99.5mph on 4/15. Matthews max velos: 4/1 = NA 4/8 = 98.8 4/15 = 99.5 4/22 = 97.4 4/27 = 97.5 5/4 = 97.1 Zebby Matthews game on 5/4 he sat in the 95-96mph range, where he had been sitting in the 97-98mph range through Spring Training and his first 3 regular season games. For a guy who does not issue free passes, the walk rate has become pretty bad and his velo is down a couple mph.
  18. bean5302
    Rice University pitchers are not outliers. While Rice University might be above average, I didn't see anything suggesting this legendary arm breaker myth going around TD. Canterino was like #65 in innings pitched for NCAA baseball the year he was drafted. His pitch counts were exceeded by many other players as well. In example, the Angels' Reid Detmers had higher pitch counts and more innings than Canterino despite being younger.
  19. bean5302
    A star as in, he produced more value in a season than any other position player in a Twins uniform having been drafted/developed under Falvey's regime. Julien led all Falvey drafted players in fWAR in 2023 at 2.8. It's more of an indictment on Falvey than star power for Julien, but in a full season at that pace, Julien would have been at the edge of All Star production.
  20. bean5302
    One of the weakest arms in baseball by the throwing speeds, actually.
  21. bean5302
    I'd take Clemens over Bride at DH/1B, but Bride has better utility, not that any team should be having both of them on the 26 man. There's at least some underlying value in Clemens' bat. With Bride, any production looks like its been all fluff. Last year, Bride had really great production in a fairly large sample size, but it was all smoke and mirrors. .276/.357/.461 OPS .818. 11% BB, 20% K. It all looks pretty good. Sample size? 272 PA. Small-ish, but starting to approach what should be a pretty steady number. BABIP even looks reasonable at .306. Until you see the wOBA .351 vs xwOBA .297 because of his poor line drive rate, sky high ground ball rate and also sky high pop up rate. Mean and max exit velocities were below average as well so there's a fairly low ceiling on Bride's bat. I think Bride is kind of interchangeable with Mickey Gasper.
  22. bean5302
    What is this sorcery????? Is it a conspiracy or is it Royce Lewis playing 2B mid-year? Baseball Reference must have made this data up because here it says he played 2B. What do you make of it? Here's a link where you can voice your outrage at the folks at Sports Reference for making this data up. We both know Royce Lewis refused to play 2B last year. But clearly, Baseball Reference has engaged in a conspiracy to cover that up and make Royce look better. https://www.sports-reference.com/feedback/
  23. bean5302
    Lewis is not opposed to playing 2B. He wasn't comfortable swapping out of the blue, and on a Rocco whim, to a premium defensive position he'd never played in his life during the end of a playoff race. A defensive position which requires more range than 3B while he was battling lower body injuries during the middle of his first major slump at the plate. The reasoning? Maybe Lewis would be better there? Why not just see what happens? It was absolutely asinine of Rocco to ask Lewis to make the change and reflects poorly on Baldelli's knowledge of his players and the game of baseball in general. Royce Lewis on aversion to 2B Last year - This Lewis won't play 2B is similar to the made up stuff about Kepler refusing to play CF. Kepler preferred not playing CF because he felt he wore down which became legend around here that where Kepler refused to play the position. There are tons and tons of examples across baseball of guys being pushed off their positions or being asked to play different positions where the players pushed back for various reasons. Few of the "pushbacks" had the kind of credibility in reasoning Lewis had last year. Mookie Betts is making $365MM guaranteed, was drafted as a 2B and played 2B, SS, CF and RF in the minors. Betts generally swapped positions during the offseason when there was time to get him practice in Spring Training, though he did suddenly make a 7 game shift to 2B (a position he'd played 100s of games) in 2021 for the Dodgers during an emergency, not because the manager thought it might make him better or just on some manager's whim. It's totally apples-oranges.
  24. bean5302
    Am I the only one you follow around and harass like an angry Karen around here? I will never take you back. You and I are through. Get it through your head. Whatever obsession you have with me... it's time to let it go. (I'm assuming you're a crazy ex at this point so I'm just guessing)
  25. bean5302
    How often do guys get hurt playing in the infield? Rarely. How often does moving a guy off a position to DH make them healthier? Pretty much never, except for catchers. How often do fans speculate such a change will make a guy healthier? Always. There is no significant increase in injury rate for infielders when it comes to leg issues like Royce has suffered from. If he's getting sore, sure, put him at DH in the short term if he needs to build up (but he really should be in AAA for that). That said, a full-time 3B gets about 3 chances a game to make a play so taking a setup position every time a pitcher throws a pitch is the extent of the load. Royce Lewis should either be playing in the field or traded to a different team. There is literally a 20 run difference in value between DH and 3B, positionally, over the course of a year. It's night and day.
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