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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Pretty simple. Go back to being a strictly platoon bat. Last year, Larnach was a full time player who had 118 plate appearances against lefties where he put up an OPS of .608 or wRC+ 71. Larnach put up a wRC+ 110 vs. righties in 2025. Good enough to be in the margin of error. It's clear he made some adjustments to his plate approach or swing as he flipped his fastball vs. changeup performance on its head. In 2024, like previous seasons, Larnach was strongly shielded from lefties with only 23 plate appearances. As far as a rebound, Larnach has basically been replacement level across his entire career save for a career year last year where he still wasn't really worth a full time position because must be platooned to be effective and he hasn't been able to handle a defensive position.
  2. bean5302
    As noted above, the Twins are not a small market team, and they haven't been run like a small market team since the opening of Target Field. For all the bellyaching from fans about the cheap Pohlads, the team hasn't run an opening day total payroll under $100MM in the last decade. https://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm The Astros are a large market team who committed to a multi-year complete overhaul and rebuild, and it paid massive dividends, but they have enormous revenue capabilities to sustain long term success with minimal rebuilding now that they've righted the ship. They're not a good comp for Minnesota. I think it remains to be seen how the true welfare franchises like Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay will strategize into the future as the larger market profitable teams like the Yankees and Dodgers get more and more agitated. If we look back at World Series rebuild teams and their successes (last rebuild): 2025 Toronto Blue Jays (2019) 2024 No Rebuild Teams 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks (2022), Texas Rangers (2021) 2022 Philadelphia Phillies (2018), Houston Astros (2016) 2021 Atlanta Braves (2019), Houston Astros (2016) It's pretty clear a non-large market team almost certainly needs to have a rebuild if they want to aim for the World Series. How big the rebuild/retool needs to be is pretty much going to be determined based on the market size of the team. Probably something like: Huge market (Dodgers, Yankees, etc) no rebuild needed Large market (1-2 years) Mid market (2-3 years) Small market (3-5 years) The competitive window once the build process starts is shorter for smaller market teams as well. Something like: Large market (5+ years) Mid market (3-4 years) Small market (2-3 years)
  3. bean5302
    26 guys on a roster. 6 years of team control. that's 4.3 new guys a year required. Some come from free agency, some come from extensions, some come from trades, but they all need to come from somewhere.
  4. bean5302
    All trades should be judged based on actual results vs. expectations. All of them. Every single one of them because the front office gets paid millions of dollars annually to be smarter than fans.
  5. bean5302
    While you may feel your personal opinion is better than BTV, that tool has been consistently accurate in determining what other teams are willing to pay. Right now, Ober has a 16.6 surplus value. In line with probably an org #3-5 prospect, something in the borderline top 100. It's a catastrophic decline from where he was at the beginning of 2025 (on par with Joe Ryan at +50ish). Twins fans are consistently inaccurate in their assessment of the team's talent, overvaluing the players they like and undervaluing the players they don't. Given Ober's modest value today, I don't see him as a good candidate to be traded. The Twins are better off hanging into him, hoping he rebounds and trying to cash out mid season, IMHO.
  6. bean5302
    Winokur is going to look awkward. He's super tall and lanky which is going to make his movement look slow and awkward as his stride length and speed will be dramatically different from your typical 6'0" SS. Being 6'6" tall means he's going to need to stay very low so he can overcome the leverage his height will have in inertia. I'm glad to see everybody at TD has already slotted every SS prospect in as a future MVP and all that, but it's pretty rare to see them work out in reality. Especially with a team that doesn't know how to coach fundamental defense.
  7. bean5302
    Willi Castro can stand at a lot of positions. Doesn't mean he can effectively play them. He's also struggled against lefties throughout his career. He's above average as a hitter, but really he only hits well as a lefty in his good seasons (he had an elevated ISO this past year against lefties which makes his 100PA sample size look good)
  8. bean5302
    A.I. response? I'm only asking because if a player is drafted and signed, they're almost guaranteed to be playing in the minors at some point and the variance between 17.6% and 10.0% is impossible as a result.
  9. bean5302
    Then no team should have a hitting coach by this kind of position. They don't matter. The hitting coach plays a fundamental role in aligning the organizational philosophy and talent with an action plan to get the most out of the talent. I think Popkins did exactly what Falvey asked of him, then he was essentially fired because the front office's hypothesis was poor. Not saying Popkins was the greatest ever or something, but he's certainly chucking eggs all over the faces of the Twins' management.
  10. bean5302
    Why are Twins fans like this? Bichette was drafted as a 2B. Bichette continued to play a little 2B in the minors. Bichette didn't get thrown under the bus by the Blue Jays. Lewis had never played on the 2B side of the field, and for the record, Lewis DID play 2B when he was assigned the position. He didn't say he wouldn't play 2B. Max Kepler didn't say he wouldn't play CF. I just don't get why TD posters need to make this stuff up.
  11. bean5302
    I tend to look at things this way. Teams probably need to find 2-3 every day 26-man roster players per year to stay competitive, and the majority of that needs to come from the draft.
  12. bean5302
    I've gotten this question a lot when I review Twins drafts. When it comes to answering how the Twins fare vs other organizations, many hundreds of hours of work is the answer. Unless there is a tool out there (should be proprietary versions for MLB organizations at least) https://community.fangraphs.com/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/ https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358010336_Major_League_Draft_WARs_An_Analysis_of_Wins_Above_Replacement_in_Player_Selection
  13. bean5302
    We'll give him honorary "Life Most Destroyed" by playing for the Twins. Honestly, Nishioka's experience was truly brutal. Fall from stardom, marriage fell apart, lack of manager support, horribly injured early in his time on a dirty play and spent the rest of his time in the minors. He forefitted the rest of his contract in shame for having not held up his end of the bargain and slinked back to Japan.
  14. bean5302
    Leo Cardenas 1969-1971 (3.0yrs) = 10.9 fWAR, 11.1 bWAR Carlos Correa 2022-2025 (3.5yrs) = 10.8* fWAR, 10.4bWAR *added 0.2 fWAR for 2025 consistent with bWAR ratio of season WAR for Twins vs. Astros
  15. bean5302
    Everything depends on strategy. I don't really trust Falvey can build an effective one. Quotes from owner representative Joe Pohlad suggest there could be a rebuild coming in which case, yes, Joe Ryan 100% SHOULD be traded for whatever the team can get, not just "made available" On the other hand, ownership statements carry absolutely zero credibility now. It was already weak since the Pohlads just simply will not do their job and hold the front office accountable. Nobody in professional gets the kind of leash Falvey has gotten. It's absolutely ludicrous a GM/President of Baseball Operations or whatever the heck you want to call him can be given so many resources, so much support, so much inherited talent and then produce nothing noteworthy year in and year out in what has been the weakest division in the game for a decade. If Ryan is traded, the trade needs to happen in December so Falvey doesn't screw it up yet again by overpricing, then waiting too long before finding himself out of suitors who can really pay. I don't think Falvey has the talent for his position so I believe ownership will need to provide him a specific deadline to move Ryan or Falvey absolutely will fail again like he did with other valuable, controllable, established talent like Dozier, Kepler and Polanco. The risk of holding onto Ryan into camp reporting date is gargantuan.
  16. bean5302
    I'd agree he looked like he was starting to regain his swagger. His sprint speed still being 45 grade instead of 70 grade on the season suggests he's not quite all back yet. It's going to take a great offseason and hopefully his confidence will come back. It takes a while after injuries like that (or even smaller ones) before the confidence in your body returns.
  17. bean5302
    The fact Falvey wasn't able to quell concerns about ownership is a problem. Managers shouldn't be reporting to owners.
  18. bean5302
    Cardenas was good to great for the 3 years he played for the Twins, and he had 2 other years in his 16 year career where he was good. Other than those sporadic seasons, he wasn't really starting caliber.
  19. bean5302
    Using things like FIP or xFIP to predict a pitcher's future performance without history supporting the correlation is a bit dangerous. Not all pitchers perform up to or down to the advanced metrics. Brandon Pfaadt is what appears to be becoming a messy example. Matthews' barrel rate is way too high and he struggles with hard contact like Varland struggled as a starter. I'm also concerned with Matthew's ability to stay healthy after adding so much velocity. Just have to see how he evolves, I think. There's certainly upside, but there's definitely work to be done as well.
  20. bean5302
    Spotrac says 2yrs $14MM, but I'm not sure a team will go 2 years on him right now. The bigger question to me is... why? Hoskins has a ceiling of what, like 1.5 WAR at this point? Why not just give Larnach a glove for 1yr and $5MM?
  21. bean5302
    Hunter declining to continue the discussion is a huge red flag against Falvey. No ifs ands or buts. Hunter interviewed with the Angels and he's clearly interested in managing, even for a team in a perpetual mess situation like the Angels. Hunter's just not interested in working for Falvey. The only way you turn down an opportunity even before you can get an offer is when the hiring manager presents a a basket-load of "absolute nope" during the initial discussions.
  22. bean5302
    I think there's an issue with the front office and management at play here. Lewis has clearly been unhappy for a while. If you don't believe your employer has your back and best interests at heart, wouldn't you be resistent to their input? Buy-in is critical, and nobody gets buy-in from their employees without making it clear how the adjustments are going to benefit the employee. Lewis' comments have suggested to me he doesn't trust the team, and he doesn't believe they're putting him in a spot to be successful. It reads like he's turtling up to protect his own future. In regard to who he is, I think a lot of what Royce will be able to do depends on whether or not he's finally able to put those ACLs and leg injuries behind him. Where he's not playing hurt or scared of aggravating injuries at the plate or on the base paths.
  23. bean5302
    Rooker only got 200 PA with the Twins, and 85% of pitcher innings are against RHP. The only season Rooker got a significant look with Minnesota was 2021. vs. RHP - .684 OPS vs. LHP - .695 OPS Like Rooker, it's not about Wallner's numbers. It's about how he got his results, and identifying major weaknesses in his game. Like Rooker, Wallner does not have a consistent weakness to certain pitches which can be exploited. You know, 2strikes = slider, guaranteed strike 3 (Sano). Wallner also covers the plate well enough despite the seemingly consistent criticism on the site. There are very few hitters in MLB who don't have 3 below average sectors in the 9 sector strike zone. Wallner is not Eduoard Julien or Miguel Sano. I also feel it's odd to see the criticism of Rooker and Wallner while I'm far less likely to read the same kind of feelings towards Larnach. Larnach's career year was 2024, and in that career year (only season he's generated more than 0.7 fWAR, he produced 1.4 fWAR to tie Matt Wallner's 2025...)
  24. bean5302
    Best is awfully subjective here. Correa has no more post-season heroics than Gagne so I'm not sure why Correa gets extra credit here. Gagne OPS'd 1.187 vs. Detroit in 1987. He's a big reason the Twins advanced to the World Series. Zoilo Versalles had the best single season with Smalley's 1978 after that. I guess "best" to me is the shortstop the Twins could count on year in and year out to be a solid every day player or better. 2.0+ WAR. Using fWAR. Tiebreaker = consecutive seasons 2.0+ fWAR, then best single season, I'm not counting trade seasons. Gagne 4x (50%, excluding the 30 PA total in '83-'84) Smalley 3x (38%) Cardenas 3x (100%) Versalles 3x (43%) Bartlett 2x (67%) Correa 2x (67%) Polanco 2x (29%, excludes 20 PA total in '14-'15, and '23 where he was 2B)
  25. bean5302
    I'm pretty confident Wallner is the next Rooker. He was better with runners on than bases empty last year, and pitchers absolutely pitched around him because most of the Twins lineup was useless. Wallner will rebound. The level of hate for Wallner on this site reminds me a lot of the negative comments about Rooker back in the day... and the complete unwillingness for the haters to accept they were absolutely dead wrong after that. Being right on the internet is critically important to the ego, you know, haha.
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