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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Seattle has made it pretty clear they're not interested in trading their rotation guys, but there are some teams out there who might be. I think Brooks Lee is a tough one to gauge. Considering how awful and overmatched he was last year, there are plenty of teams who likely don't view Lee as an attractive acquisition. There are also some other teams who likely expect Lee to make some adjustments and potentially turn into a star.
  2. bean5302
    There's a lot to consider from the Twins' perspective. Only the Twins had Berrios, and Toronto wasn't the only team making offers so the lost opportunity of other trade offers we don't even know about. From a BTV standpoint, Toronto made a massive overpay for Berrios and the Twins took it, but what if the Padres were offering MacKenzie Gore? Anyway, there's also the NPV to consider. A quality player now is worth more than a quality player in the future. I think the trade went poorly for the Twins as of right now. The Twins had the 2nd most valuable pitcher available on the trade market at the deadline in 2021 and they turned that huge asset into one guy who is almost assuredly looking at the twilight of a short and unremarkable career, and another guy who looks like they might stick around with some minimal production for a few more years. I don't believe in SWR in the rotation long term at this point (I'd take Festa over SWR), and Austin Martin has a very low ceiling at this point. While Simeon Woods Richardson still has a chance, the way he folded up shop in the 2nd half as hitters adjusted, and even potentially ran out of steam despite being an 7 year professional under the age of 25 doesn't bode well for him being successful/better conditioned/more reliable in the future.
  3. bean5302
    Not to mention Correa's response to the Giants, which was to cut off all communication, would have made it awfully clear to the Mets the "negotiation tactic" wouldn't work. Ultimately, I don't think any team would be terribly concerned about Correa's health on a 4 year contract which will start rapidly dropping in cost in 2026. I suspect many teams would be interested in Correa if the Twins were willing to eat $5-10MM off the contract in the next 2 years.
  4. bean5302
    Varland's pitches don't move well. In the bullpen, Varland can add velocity to help compensate, but I see him as a middle reliever ceiling. I've seen the same problem with him in the bullpen that I saw in the rotation which is Varland gives up a lot of very hard contact.
  5. bean5302
    Falvey's overseen eight MLB drafts. Not one of his drafted players has produced a 3.0+ fWAR season for the Twins in their careers. Not one has ever been an All Star, and while you don't like it, I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect Falvey to have at least produced a single bonafide star player by now. College players, on average make the MLB in 2-3 years. High school players, on average, make MLB in 3-4 years. That's "on average" not on exception, and last year, here are the players who made the All Star Game within Falvey's draft range in the American League alone... Adley Rutschman Gunnar Henderson Steven Kwan Bobby Witt, Jr. Jordan Westburg Riley Greene Jarren Duran David Fry Garrett Crochet Tarik Skubal Mason Miller Logan Gilbert That's 12 players for 15 teams who were "drafted" during Falvey's tenure who were in the All Star game. Luis Arraez was signed by Terry Ryan in 2013, dude. So yeah, it's a feather in Terry Ryan's cap. The same feather that Bill Smith gets for the load of players he signed which represented the Twins in an All Star game. Feel free to keep offering unlimited excuses.
  6. bean5302
    I mean, any of these guys could be in the ballpark of 6-10 depending on personal bias.
  7. bean5302
    Correa's "net" trade value is a little greater than Luke Keaschall's on BTV, and BTV has proven to be pretty accurate.
  8. bean5302
    Wasn't even slightly worried about Joe Ryan's injury. It's not joint related and didn't require surgery.
  9. bean5302
    Paddack is not good enough to be in the Twins' rotation, and he's not good enough to be in a serious playoff competitor's rotation all year. He is good enough to eat the 80 or so innings he will be able to pitch before becoming hurt on a team down a starter out of the gate. Paddack hasn't pitched a full season in his entire 6 year career. Thinking he'll be A) Healthy and B) Productive (ERA under 4.00) for the first time since 2019 so the Twins can move his salary after they've already eaten 70% doesn't seem realistic to me. If the Twins care about clearing space, now is the time to move Paddack.
  10. bean5302
    Have you decided Paddack is going to "dominate" in the bullpen based on his 5.0 innings of 5.40 ERA work there in 2023 where he pitched against the Angels, Athletics and Rockies to close out the season?
  11. bean5302
    MLB is definitely unhealthy. The RSN death has completely turned the league upside down. Similar to how everything imploded in the early 90s setting off a total revolution in baseball. That said, 23 of 30 teams have made the playoffs in 2021-2024. No team has been to a league championship series or world series more than 2x in that span, and only 3 teams haven't missed the playoffs (Dodgers, Astros, Braves) in that span. Chance of making playoffs? 77% vs. 100% in a perfect world Chance of making a league championship? 33% vs. 53% in a perfect world Chance of making a World Series? 23% vs. 27% in a perfect world. There is a ton of competition in MLB. The Dodgers are really stirring things up, and I do believe they've gotten to the point rules about deferrals need to be put into place to protect the future of the game.
  12. bean5302
    So what if the Twins don't make any more moves? With the current roster, the team constructed as-is looks about like this in my opinion. If the Twins finish 4th in the AL Central at 84 wins, it was a heck of a division, which might wind up being the case. Obviously, opinions can vary, but ask yourself whether or not you'd bet money on being off my more than +/- 0.5 WAR on these estimates for likely (mid-range) WAR at the end of the season, and whether or not your differing expectations offset each other. First Last Mid WAR Ryan Jeffers 1.8 Jose Miranda 1.8 Royce Lewis 3.0 Carlos Correa 4.0 Willi Castro 2.5 Trevor Larnach 1.5 Byron Buxton 3.0 Matt Wallner 2.5 Edouard Julien 1.0 Christian Vazquez 0.5 DaShawn Keirsey 0.0 Austin Martin 0.0 Brooks Lee 1.0 Pablo Lopez 3.2 Joe Ryan 2.3 Bailey Ober 2.3 David Festa 1.8 Simeon WR 1.0 Jhoan Duran 1.5 Griffin Jax 1.5 Jorge Alcala 0.8 Cole Sands 0.8 Brock Stewart 0.8 Kody Funderburk 0.0 Louie Varland 0.5 Ronny Henriquez 0.0 Replacement 45 39.1 84 84 wins is the expected total. The team is "probably" an over .500 ballclub. Spotrac projects $138.6MM for the Twins' payroll at the moment which is good for 17th in MLB, just behind Baltimore and Seattle, and a tick above St. Louis. Twins fan attendance was 23rd in MLB last year.
  13. bean5302
    Alonso is going to struggle to get much over $100MM in my opinion. The rumor was the Mets have chopped their offer from the 6/150 extension offer they made last year to 3/90 with player opt outs after each season most recently. The Giants have also been tied to Alonso, and the perennially bad idea Angels are mulling a run at him as well. Alonso is this year's Boras fail, I think.
  14. bean5302
    I think 2020's flop has highlighted 2019's poor results as well. Thank goodness for Matt Wallner, otherwise the Twins aren't going to see any value from their 2019 selections, either. 2019 was okay as was 2018. An average team needs 3+ hits per draft, and no Falvey drafted player has ever earned an All Star selection for the Twins.
  15. bean5302
    The point is other teams had picks which are already producing MLB value. The fact the Twins might get something from their draft picks to help them out of the doldrums is good, but the fact they now need those picks to work out to avoid looking bad is not.
  16. bean5302
    Larnach? I'll just link my other post on the other 15-20 topic. When it comes to Larnach, his ceiling is higher than it was, but that ceiling is still just a 2 WAR left fielder, and he's already arb eligible. Larnach's effort amounted to just 1.5 fWAR in 112 games last year. Given Larnach's lengthy injury history, and Baldelli's extreme platoon tendencies, it seems unlikely Larnach will see more than 135 games a year so that's going to limit his value as well. His contributions are being over-sold again, just like they were a couple years ago when he and Alex Kirilloff were future perennial All Stars around here. I think the rest of the list is probably justifiable. https://twinsdaily.com/news-rumors/minnesota-twins/top-twins-players-2025-julien-miranda-correa/
  17. bean5302
    Money is not the end all scenario because the Twins have major trade assets. So there would have to be a caveat where prospect assets were also locked down in addition to money. I suspect the Pohlad family has tied Falvey's hands in that regard based on what we saw last year.
  18. bean5302
    If lots of things go right, sure. The Twins could win 90 games next year if, if, if. I think they're about an 84-85 win team right now. Question marks are Jose Miranda, Edouard Julien, Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Simeon Woods Richardson, and David Festa. Unexpected injuries or guys who don't play up to expectations could swing the Twins to below .500 just as easy.
  19. bean5302
    Ramirez is interesting. Despite having plus speed at one point, he's been pretty poor in the outfield in part due to his limited arm. Also, as his frame has expanded (5'11" and 232lbs listed now), his once elite sprint speed has waned. The Nationals deployed him exclusively as a DH when they got him. Not sure what happened to his swing last year, but he transformed into a ground ball machine, and I'm sure the sudden decline of Tim Anderson spooked plenty of teams holding on to similar players. I wouldn't bank on Ramirez rebounding, but he's worth a MiLB signing. If I were the Twins, I'd deploy him to the OF to see if he can handle it.
  20. bean5302
    I think the Twins can just roll with Jeffers as-is, but it'd maybe be fine to buy out a year or two of free agency on the cheap given the Twins utter lack of depth. He's under team control for 2 years a28-a29, and 2.0 WAR catchers haven't exactly made out like bandits. 2023 was an illusion powered by a .359 BABIP, and I can't see it happening again, but Jeffers is still a solid catcher IMHO. An average, 2 WAR kinda guy in 120 games or something. I think 4 years and $30MM would lock Jeffers up. 2025 - $6MM 2026 - $8MM 2027 - Free agent contract = 2yrs at $8-12MM/yr. Total 4yrs $30-38MM If we look at a similar catcher Danny Jensen just got 1yr $8.5MM coming off a down year. James McCann got 4yrs at $10MM at age 30 in free agency coming off two very good seasons. Maybe Jeffers would be more aggressive at betting on himself, but there's a lot to gamble there that he beats $30MM over the next 4 years. I don't want to lock him up beyond that. Catchers don't typically age well, and Jeffers can't afford to take much of a step back and still justify a long term contract.
  21. bean5302
    I agree with you on SWR. Lots of red flags on him. The breakdown from BTV is: 36.3 AFV (about 4 WAR over the next 6 years) 17.1 MM Expected Salary FGDC/Steamer expect a 4.66 ERA next year.
  22. bean5302
    Was just trying to find a way to give your position a little credibility. The Twins can acquire another team's controlled pre-arb/arb players any time they want regardless of whether or not the player likes it or utterly despises the Twins. The Twins' projections, player values, etc all depend on other teams and players. You cannot even get the starting value to measure anything in the Twins' organization without considering market value to other organizations, period. Calling a multi-million dollar organization with a long standing high quality track record of accuracy cited by the largest sources of MLB publishing in the biz a fun little tool is ridiculous.
  23. bean5302
    Yep. Exactly this.
  24. bean5302
    I think your argument would be more clear with an analogy. Like The Twins are not going to trade their 5 starters for 5 left fielders of equal value since the Twins don't need 5 left fielders. I still don't agree because assets can always be acquired or distributed as the Twins could turn around and trade their acquired 5 left fielders for 5 now missing rotation arms.
  25. bean5302
    It's like saying a pineapple isn't a single fruit, it's a cluster of berries (it is, technically, but it's not used that way). The article does not clearly state it's not about trade values. It opines that it's not exclusively about league-wide trade values, but then describes exactly what trade value is based on a league-wide methodology like relief pitchers being in abundance. If this was specifically a Twins-centric evaluation, Julien would be top 10 because he could find himself in 1 of the 2 most deficient positions on the club last year in 2B or DH. Baseballtradevalues accounts for projected production, controllability, upside, contract, and availability. There is no way to separate the Twins from the league in this regard because if the Twins need something, they can just acquire it either locally or from another organization. i.e. if there were 50 free agent 2B on the market, the Twins couldn't care less how good their 2B prospects are as they're easy to replace.
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