bean5302

Without a doubt, this is the best Joe Ryan has ever been in his career. It's rare for a pitcher to take a step forward by adding a good pitch after reaching MLB, let alone to go from fringe starter to a mid rotation arm. The way Ryan has been pitching this year suggests there's still more in the tank. Ryan doesn't have any overpowering pitches, but everything he does have is average or better, and his command has been outstanding. Ryan's Achilles heel has always been the second half, but we're kind of seeing the 2nd half of 2024 right now as I think this is the first season where Ryan hasn't made major tweaks to his arsenal. Up until now, I've dismissed calls to extend him; however, Ryan is beginning to look like a legitimate front end starter. A back-loaded 5 year extension close to the deal the Twins gave Lopez is starting to make sense, but it would mean Ober was on borrowed time.

I haven't. Could be that he's terrible, but I haven't had a lot of opportunity to watch him, either. I'm only evaluating him based on stats, and it's hard to pull a ton of info from that. Of course, you, having 'watched the MiLB games' know all about Gasper behind the dish. I'm not sure when that happened since you'd never seen him play according to your comments back in January, and he's only played a couple games behind the dish with St. Paul.

I don't know Pete Rose, and he certainly never wronged me in any way. His prime was long over before I was born. He's dead. He can take no pleasure in any respite from hate, yet comment after comment drips with hatred and vitriol, eager to demonstrate the virtue of the commentor. Perhaps we should take his rotting corpse and hang it from a tow truck to haul it across the country from state fair to state fair. Sell tickets to commentors for $2 to take a swing and beat it with a baseball bat so as to demonstrate refined moral superiority while proving their virtue? When it comes to Pete Rose and his relationship to baseball, his contributions are unquestionable. He's the all time leader in hits, RoY, MVP, and has accumulated 80 career WAR while being one of the most popular players of all time, representing the game and drawing in fans an insane 17 times as an All Star. His behavior also critically damaged baseball. It was a series of massive sucker punches to fans, and he also risked a potentially catastrophic impact if fans believe play was all showmanship and entertainment rather than a competitive sport. As far as the non-baseball related claims against him, they're paper thin, but no type of claim is more powerful so it's not surprising it's been so intently weaponized. For whatever reason, Americans have both been taught and embraced the concept of persecution or acceptance. If a person isn't willing to actively persecute somebody they don't know, and demonstrate outrage while demanding endless vengeance for behavior which did not personally injure them in any way, it means the person is actively endorsing the harmful behavior, and therefore must also be persecuted. Of course, it's all intensely hypocritical, but it makes an American feel good to judge themselves to have superior value in society while seeking an active minority group to persecute. We're not allowed to persecute based on skin color or sex or gender or body shape or hair color or smoking status anymore. Who can we find? Somebody, certainly, and it's our duty to destroy those people to demonstrate moral superiority. It saddens me a little to see people so bent out of shape over somebody they don't know who did nothing to them, hasn't been relevant in 40 years, and is now dead (or somebody who hasn't played in 100 years for that matter). Rose paid and paid again for his actions. I can't comment as to whether or not he regretted his actions, but I suspect being widely hated after having been so beloved and honored was probably a truly never ending horrible experience. I don't have a vote, and I'm not sure how I would vote. I'm quite positive I won't lose any sleep over it.

I've seen this phrase continue after the Twins missed the playoffs last year, and it's confused me a little. What do people think Sim saved last year? If he hadn't flopped hard in the 2nd half and the Twins had made the playoffs, his contributions would have been meritorious. I don't see what he actually saved last year versus the Twins making Dobnak or Boushley the 5th starter. The Twins don't make the playoffs either way. Dobnak as a starter is probably 0.0 WAR vs. SWR's 1.8 WAR. So the Twins win 2 games more with Sim instead of Dobnak in the rotation. I think people are still in the mindset of the results Sim was getting in his first few starts when all the balls were bouncing his way, and it looked like Woods-Richardson was going to save the rotation by helping the Twins make the playoffs. He didn't.

McCusker is like that perfect doughnut sitting on the counter that I promised I wouldn't eat until I go to the gym. No. I have to go to the gym first. There's a reason I have to go to the gym first... staaaaaare. Gabriel Gonzalez needs to be in AA now. I like to see Will Holland starting off well with the bat. We may need him at shortstop sooner than later...

...and "Clayton Kershaw" is almost back for the Dodgers. Coincidence? I think not.

SWR's pitch splits. vs. RHB = 50% Four seam, 30% Slider, 15% Curve, 5% Change vs. LHB = 50% Four seam, 20% Change, 20% Slider, 10% Curve A couple things to consider. 1. He throws his fastball way too much. 2. His fastball stinks. 3. He's a 3 pitch pitcher against RHB. 4. Adding the changeup to RHB is not an option. They're "slugging" 1.333 on it this year, and .923 on it last year, and the expected slugging is just as bad. The changeup should pretty much never be thrown to a righty. 5. His changeup isn't great against LHB, either. I was a huge fan of SWR's potential when we got him from Toronto. I have to be honest, all the advanced metrics, the stuff evaluation and how hitters have tee'd off against pretty much everything other than his slider makes me think he's a bullpen guy. Dial up another 1-2mph on the heater, ditch the changeup, and start throwing the curve to lefties.

Seems like the Twins are revisiting Gasper at catcher now. I know he hadn't had a single game there at St. Paul through the first few weeks of the season, but I see there giving him 1-2 starts a week now.

Age and team control matter a lot, and so does whether or not a team is competitive or they have time to let a struggling player work through adjustments at the MLB level. It's tough to compare how Viola was viewed to SWR, now 40 years later. I base my expectations on not only SWR's results, but his stuff+ score and the peripherals. Pitchers do reinvent themselves and get better, and Joe Ryan is a good example, but I just don't think it's that common.

I don't have TikTok, either, but I saw the iPhone vs. Android joke clip somewhere. To give you reference, Android devices are (were) detecting when users were taking photos of the moon and substituting the camera for a telescope stock image of the moon. It became a running joke, and I find the clip pretty funny.

1 & 2 are basically saying he needs better pitches. That's probably true. His location+ is already near elite, it's just MLB batters won't chase Sim's stuff.

Have a source for that? Caught 17% of base runners last year (same as Winkel). Agreed, there's too many passed balls, but same rate as Cartaya last year, and better than Camargo. It feels like... we've got some coaches for that as well.

You mean 0.1 sec before he crashes into Correa or did your eyes see something in the zoomed out TV angle I didn't on my 32" 4k monitor? Maybe you were watching on an Android device?

Since the All Star Game last year, SWR has made 19 starts. His ERA is 5.14 and his FIP is 5.00 over that span, and he only had 3 games during that stint last year where his fastball really deviated from normal. Many pitchers benefit from a lack of scouting reports when they debut, then the scouting reports come out and the wheels fall off. Across 3 seasons 2022-2024, there were 154 starters who threw at least 200 innings. Of that list, 13 had an ERA of 5.00 or higher, and their contract status (signed/current) UFA / UFA - Noah Syndergaard MLB / MLB - Brandon Pfaadt - ARI (4.05 FIP), 5yrs, $45MM MiLB / MiLB - Adrian Houser - AAA, MiLB Contract, converted to reliever. MLB / MLB - Trevor Rogers - BAL AAA (4.42 FIP), Arb2 $2.6MM MLB / MLB - Ryan Feltner - COL (4.35 FIP), Arb1 $2.275MM UFA / UFA - Zack Davies MiLB / MiLB - Dakota Hudson - AAA, MiLB contract, spot starter MiLB / MLB - Chris Flexen - CHC, MiLB contract, made the team at 1yr $1.25MM, converted to reliever. MiLB / UFA - Carlos Corrasco - MiLB contract, released by NYY. MLB / MLB - Austin Gomber - COL, Arb3, $6.35MM UFA / UFA - Alex Wood UFA / UFA - Jordan Lyles MiLB / MLB - Patrick Corbin - TEX, MiLB contract, this is hard to even fathom, but he's starting again. The track record isn't great for those guys to stick in an MLB rotation, unless you're pitching for the Colorado Rockies.

Don't we have coaches for that? All he needs to do is beat out Camargo and Winkel to get a year long 26 man spot. I don't even know what Gasper actually does bad behind the plate? LOL. I do know he was pushed down the depth chart by the NYY who had top catching prospects rising through their system past Gasper, but I haven't seen anything to suggest he's terrible or anything. Giving Gasper some time behind the plate in St. Paul might be a good thing. I do know his arm is considered pretty weak so maybe the Twins, who don't care about stopping the run game, are concerned he won't be able to control the run game? https://soxprospects.com/players/gasper-mickey.htm

I don't know as I'm so bullish on his youth. While his physical age isn't too old at 24, this is his 8th professional season, and his 4th season where he's seen action at the MLB level. Sim's slow progress on improving as a pitcher due to his lack of commitment to address long standing mechanical issues saw SWR make only 1 appearance in each of 2022 and 2023. Without his effort to reach out to the coaching staff last spring, and his subsequent new found commitment to stick to the long advocated adjustments, he'd already have watched his ship sale as a rotation piece. If he stays in St. Paul for 20 days, which I think is likely, he'll have burned his last option. That makes Sim a trade candidate or a bullpen candidate. Without options, he's not going to be injury replacement depth. I think a team desperate for pitching on a budget would likely pony up something of value for SWR. That said, I also don't think the Twins are in a position to pull the trigger on a trade right now as the depth in AAA gets awfully thin if Festa is added to the rotation.

I love Prielipp's stuff. His ceiling is far higher than most guys in the Twins' system. The MLB umpire accuracy rate is 95%. In the first inning, that ump was 80% accurate. Trying to pass that off as normal is not reasonable. Prielipp's talent is well established. Whether or not he'll be able to stay healthy or keep fooling hitters as he progresses are different matters.

Seems likely Correa winds up on concussion protocol. Looked like he was nearly knocked out with the shoulder to the back of the head. Scary stuff. Hope it's as minor as it can be.

If it's "Buck's ball" he needs to call it. Correa cannot see him, and only noticed a charging Buxton just before impact. Either player had a play on it. Buxton ran 100 feet for that ball, Correa moved 15 feet.

Personally, I have never had high expectations for Raya, Morris or Lewis. Raya's been coddled since year 2 with the club, and he's often struggled to impress with results as a starter. Morris doesn't have the stuff to miss bats, and Lewis has the knuckleball, but he's best in the bullpen, I'd think. Prielipp isn't struggling IMHO, he wasn't getting calls yesterday and his expected numbers look good. Considering his health is bar far the greatest concern, the fact he's going out and throwing 50+ pitches every start is awesome. Dasan Hill had a tight upper back so he was pulled on 5/3. As of right now, it's pretty much a non-issue. He's not on the IL, and I wouldn't expect him to miss any more starts. It was reported on 5/8 that Hill was probable for making his start on 5/10, but the Twins skipped it as a precaution, I guess. I'd expect to see him start this weekend. I think you're a little overly pessimistic is what I'm saying, haha.

Yeah, it's frustrating. Those "balls" should have been called strikes, but if the umpire is enforcing a tight strike zone, the pitcher is at a huge disadvantage.

No idea, but they'll just slap him back on the IL if he's not ready by then, right?

@jorgenswest Tons if you're actually trying to quantify if a player has increased their high effort average swing speed. There are some errors in the data set which can mess things up, but in Kody Clemens' case, his max effort swing speeds remain about the same, he's just not taking soft swings as frequently. It's best to look at the bat tracking charts on Baseballsavant to compare previous seasons to current in this case. The chart does show a much smaller, but significant boost to his upper range swing speeds. Since Baseballsavant isn't loading properly right now, you might not be able to see it. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/kody-clemens-665019?stats=statcast-r-bat_tracking-mlb

Over the past 16 starts Festa (career) vs. Sim Festa: 16 GS, 77.1 IP, 4.31 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 3.67 xFIP, 10.71 K/9 (27.6%), 3.26 BB/9 (8.4%), 1.32 WHIP. QS = 6.25% (6.0+ IP, 3 ER or less) QS2 = 37.5% (5.0+ IP, 3.99 ERA or less) Sim: 16 GS, 76.0 IP, 4.97 ERA, 5.21 FIP, 4.92 xFIP, 8.05 K/9 (20.4%), 3.67 BB/9 (9.3%), 1.50 WHIP. QS = 6.25% QS2 = 31.25% Festa is better in every single metric, many dramatically better, except old school QS, where they're tied. Even if he wasn't, it'd be worth taking another look at him because SWR's line is not MLB worthy.

I don't think I need to really heap on by detailing out Miguel Sano's long list of poor decisions and potential character issues. If you don't think he was a divisive figure in the clubhouse or that he was trying his best, I think you're abjectly mistaken. Suffice to say, his decision making and immaturity were major contributors to him falling far short of his potential and disappointing Twins fans. Miguel Sano made $36MM as a Twins player. It's not exactly chump change. He did provide some highlight reel home runs, and with 7 years in MLB, you'd expect it. I hope he's been humbled and is now making better decisions, and I hope he has a great life moving forward.