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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I continue to be baffled by the expectations Varland has a good chance to be an elite bullpen arm. There's not much in Varland's history or profile which suggest he might even be an effective setup man. I know there's talk about his knuckle curve, but he had that pitch last year, too. It was his only above average pitch in Stuff+. One of the important things about Stuff+ is how it evaluates a repertoire not only based on characteristics of a pitch, but also how effective you'd expect a pitch to be based on the other offerings a pitcher has. I think Varland could be a solid reliever, but I don't see any major upside right now. Most top relievers like Duran and Jax have at least one elite pitch. Varland's best pitch is maybe a tick above average. The quality of Varland's offerings compare similarly to Josh Staumont and Ronny Henriquez, but nobody is expecting those guys to lead a bullpen any time soon. Even Michael Tonkin has a better pitch (changeup) than Varland's best. Louie Varland Stuff+ Fastball 100 (50 grade) Sinker 98 (45 grade) Cutter, 99 (45 grade) Changeup 93 (45 grade) KnuckleCurve 107 (50 grade)
  2. bean5302
    Agreed about the Tonkin hate. 0.6 fWAR last year which ranks 77th of 203 (top 38%) relievers in MLB with 40+ innings. He ranked lower in 2023 (160th of 198 at bottom 22%), but he still provided positive value which is more than I can say for Louie Varland or 11 other relievers who pitched for Minnesota last year. Tonkin's durable as a middle innings reliever for only $1MM. The 8th spot in the bullpen is not going to be a high leverage closer role. What teams are hoping for out of the 8th spot is for a guy to come in, keep the game from drastically changing and get the team on to the next game. Tonkin bounced around so much because of his limited upside. He wasn't a shiny new toy, and another team was guaranteed to pick him and his small salary up. Varland is not a starting pitcher. He may not even have a ceiling higher than Tonkin in the bullpen. The Twins front office always plays secret squirrel with information as if every player on the roster is a starting quarterback for an NFL team. It's weird.
  3. bean5302
    He should be DFA'd to make room on the 40 man. Shoulder strain based on the MRI. https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/headlines/matt-canterino-injury-out-with-shoulder-strain-951028
  4. bean5302
    Well that and Paddack will be injured at the trade deadline like every year since 2020
  5. bean5302
    Baldelli will deploy Castro all over the place. It doesn't matter if it's good or bad.
  6. bean5302
    K rate, BB rate, K-BB rate, xFIP, Stuff+ for Matthews are all better than Paddack or SWR. Matthews got barreled up a lot last year, but he'll probably wind up being a better pitcher than SWR or Paddack. There's plenty of reason to want Matthews in the rotation again right now, but I think it is best for him to get more polish at AAA.
  7. bean5302
    Paddack is guaranteed a rotation spot if he's healthy. The Twins' front office is not going to use a $7.5MM starting pitcher with virtually no reliever history out of the bullpen. He will not earn it on merit because Paddack isn't a great starting pitcher. He's probably a #5 if he's healthy at this point. I'll also be a little surprised if the Twins don't trade a starter before the season starts (probably Paddack) if everybody is healthy and Castellanos looks good.
  8. bean5302
    No team has spent more money than Minnesota in the AL Central since Falvey's start. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Total MIN 121 116 125 60 121 150 156 129 978 CHW 85 72 91 54 140 203 163 140 948 DET 188 131 114 43 84 135 119 97 911 KCR 148 130 104 35 92 93 96 125 823 CLE 132 142 107 39 51 66 89 105 731 Minnesota is the only team who hasn't dropped below $93MM in the division in a full season. It's not about about being handicapped. Their payrolls have generally been sufficient, though there are certainly failures on the part of ownership, but the Twins' front office doesn't understand how to budget, either.
  9. bean5302
    The "new" defensive metrics I'm looking at (RF/9) have been around since 2001. RF/9 is not so wild like OAA or DRS. RF/9 is far from perfect, but there is nothing in metrics or scouting I'm aware of which would suggest Keirsey is a potentially elite center fielder. Eeles stole bases at a faster clip and with a better success rate than Keirsey last year. Does that mean Payton Eeles is super fast? Btw, if Austin Martin had 505 PA in AAA last year, he was on pace for 32 SB vs. Keirsey's 36 except Austin Martin had a better ratio of being successful than Keirsey. Keirsey doesn't hit LHP well historically. Just like his out of the blue performance at the plate last year, Keirsey's performance against LHP doesn't match his history. 2023 = .860 OPS vs. RHP and a lowly .638 OPS vs. LHP. The chances of Keirsey being able to hold his own at the MLB level isn't high.
  10. bean5302
    People are excited (including me) about the prospect of a new ownership group who wants to win championships, not play .500 ball in the division and hope something happens.
  11. bean5302
    Going back to 2017, percentage chance of making the MLB playoffs based on wins 2024 - 82 = 0.0% 2023 - 87 = 23.5% (4:1) 2022 - 78 = 0.0% 2021 - 73 = 0.0% 2020 - N/A 2019 - 101 = 100.0% (1:1) 2018 - 78 = 0.0% 2017 - 85 = 8.8% (11:1) This consistency we have has not been a strength.
  12. bean5302
    First off, I believe a lot of people get the shaft when it comes to accusations, and I believe a lot of people simply apologize and hope it blows over because an apology DOES fix the problem 90% of the time whereas if you fight and lose the debate, it's all over. This was pretty much exactly what I remembered from when the story broke last year. The other team told the Ft. Myers coaches about what was going on after the game. It's catastrophic to a denial he was tipping pitches. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/41238109/sources-twins-cut-derek-bender-catcher-told-opposing-hitters-incoming-pitch I don't really think Bender has a leg to stand on here, regardless of whether or not he did or didn't do what he was accused of. Unfortunately, he appears to also be unable to shut his pie hole, and that makes things impossible to sweep under the rug and restart. His agency was correct. Let people forget about it because it's the only way you'll ever earn a chance again.
  13. bean5302
    I think it says a lot about Baldelli when his "strategy" has been to change strategies every year, but it's not his core philosophy which is broken, it's somebody else's fault when things go wrong. There are a few consistent pieces which continue. 1) Platoon almost everybody. 2) Rest players even if they don't need it to prevent injury. 3) Play mediocre veterans over younger players. 4) Use players in positions they're not suited to play. 5) Trust the process is universally correct
  14. bean5302
    SWR making it as a starter in MLB is the same as saying Tyler Duffey made it as a starter in MLB. Lots of fans for a guy with poor conditioning, a 4.55 xFIP/4.51 SIERA, a 20% K rate, fly ball pitcher with below average stuff around here. Not that I didn't know any prediction of SWR washing out as a starter in MLB wouldn't rub a lot of fans the wrong way when they've already penciled SWR in as a mid rotation career starter because he got lucky for a few starts out of the gate last year.
  15. bean5302
    I'm not that concerned about bench bats. I think all these guys are fine as backup/bench players if they only play like backup/bench players (some will play more). I also wasn't concerned about Matt Tolbert being a backup in 2008.
  16. bean5302
    I don't have any crypto to bet, though honestly, I don't see crypto as a whole lot different than stocks or baseball cards for that matter. Stock - Bill Gates buys another 100,000 shares of Microsoft at $100/share. $10,000,000. How much of that goes to Microsoft? $0. Baseball cards - Bill Gates buys all the pre-owned Topps Twins player baseball cards in existence. $1,000,000. How much of that goes to Topps? $0. How much goes to the Twins? $0. How much goes to Byron Buxton? $0.
  17. bean5302
    Correct. No matter the budget the front office has been given, they've typically signed a bunch of depth guys.
  18. bean5302
    What makes you think Keirsey is faster than Martin? Martin's defensive metrics in the minors are BETTER than Keirsey's, and Keirsey is not considered a burner, he's a guy who is considered just fast enough to cover CF from all the scouting I've seen.
  19. bean5302
    I'd bet money he won't make it as an MLB starter.
  20. bean5302
    Headrick, a difference maker? I mean, it's possible, but there wasn't much to project there IMHO.
  21. bean5302
    We have a lot of depth? It might be reasonable to consider most prospects don't work out. Established, quality MLB rotation arms Lopez Ryan Ober --------------- Probable, experienced, quality MLB rotation arms Paddack Festa Matthews -------------- Improbable, but possibly back end, experienced MLB rotation arms Woods Richardson -------------- Limited high level MiLB experience, high ceiling rotation arms Raya Lewis Beyond that, there's low minors guys like Prielipp, and low ceiling depth guys like Morris, Culpepper, Adams, Dobnak.
  22. bean5302
    Just in case anybody is wondering about "cherry picking" https://www.institutedata.com/us/blog/cherry-picking-in-data-analytics/
  23. bean5302
    Kinda under the impression Pokemon Go has dwindled down, hasn't it?
  24. bean5302
    Canterino needs to prove he can throw strikes. He'll be doing that at AAA to start the season, provided he can make it through Spring Training without getting hurt, which seems to be unlikely based on his history. Provided Canterino can get 20 or so appearances in relief and he's able to get his K rate over 25% with a walk rate 3x lower than his K rate, the Twins will find a place in the bullpen for him. Having a 6 BB/9 in AA 3 years ago doesn't fill me with confidence more polished guys will chase his stuff if it's out of the zone.
  25. bean5302
    When I looked at Julien's swing percentages O-Swing, Z-Swing, overall, and contact rates, I didn't see a huge change. Last year he was swinging more, but when he swung away, he was making less contact. Maybe there was something to his approach change, but I'm a little skeptical. Hopefully, Julien can make whatever adjustments he needs to be able to make better contact, especially on pitches he hasn't been able to handle well previously.
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