bean5302

Buxton will never, ever have a full season. 100 games was a serious milestone for him and he and his family celebrated it. He's got a ton of chronic issues which will never go away. Back, migraine, knees. He's going to miss time, and I think it's unfair to even expect more than 80 games. It's why the Twins signed Bader. Buxton simply will not play a full season. Correa has been one of the more durable players in MLB over the past several years. He's qualified for a championship award (504 PA+) in 2021, 2022, and again in 2023. Being healthy is obviously important, but he's taking a bit too much criticism for health due to recency bias. The jury is totally out on Lewis, but it doesn't look good for his durability. Hopefully, the lower body has fully healed and strengthened itself up. Doctors warned of the high risk for Lewis to have the quad injury and the hip injury as the injuries chain together in a waterfall throughout the healing/strengthening process as each segment of the chain takes added stress. We'll probably know if Lewis will ever be the player he once was in terms of athleticism by the end of April. If we see those sprint speeds north of 28 ft/sec.

Hahaha, really? As of right now, I'd give Gasper a 1% chance. I mean, sure, Boston put him at 2B... but he only started 18 games in his entire MiLB career there. It was pretty wild to put him at the keystone, IMHO. Gasper had 108 GS at catcher, 179 GS at 1B. The 18 games he started at 2B were almost all from the Yankees' system in 2023. 1B - France (R), Miranda (R), Julien (L), Gasper (S) 2B - Castro (S), Julien (L), Lee (S), Lewis (R), Gasper (S) C - Jeffers (R), Vazquez (R), Cartaya (R), Camargo (R), Gasper (S) DH - By committee Gasper is going to have to prove a lot this spring. I'm not even sure how the organization actually views him right now.

Falvey is known for waiting until the last minute (too late in most cases) to make moves, and there is nothing preventing the Twins from making trades over the next 5 weeks before opening day. At the moment, Paddack's $7.5MM has him basically neutral in trade value, but there will be injuries not only on the Twins, but other teams as well. It wouldn't surprise me to see Paddack to moved out before the season starts if he has a healthy spring and the velocity looks good. Of course, it also wouldn't surprise me to see Matthews or SWR shipped out. Logjam today, maybe less pressure tomorrow.

Simeon Woods Richardson's stuff didn't look great last year, and the scouting reports appeared to be catching up to him. He also apparently wore down despite not throwing that many innings. Starting on 8/27, his velocity dropped off quite a bit. That was after 13.1 innings (AAA) + 112.1 (MLB) innings. A 23 year old guy who has been a professional for 7 years and had thrown over 100 innings the previous two years wouldn't normally be expected to run into fatigue like that. Still, SWR added about 4mph to his fastball last year so his body might just have needed some time to adapt so mulligan on the conditioning, I guess. SWR first 9 starts, avg. velo = 93.0 mph, ERA 3.05, xFIP, 4.47 <-- meh SWR next 13 starts, avg. velo = 93.5 mph, ERA 4.10, xFIP, 4.24 <-- okay, #4/5ish? SWR last 6 starts, avg. velo = 92.1 mph, ERA 6.75, xFIP, 5.72 <-- offfffda While the common perception around these parts seems to be starters don't go 6.0+ innings very much anymore, that's not been true when I've looked at most teams/starters. SWR doesn't pitch deep because he struggles to throw strikes. He went 6.0+ only 7 times in his first 20 starts with the Twins. First 22 games (doesn't include hypothesized fatigue starts) - 85.8 pitches per start, 5.11 innings per start 6.0+ Innings 35% 5.0+ Innings 55% <5.0 Innings 45% Looking at MLB averages for starter with 140+ innings last year Carlos Rodon - 96.9 pitches per start, 5.46 innings per start (bottom 25%) 6.0+ Innings 47% 5.0+ Innings 75% <5.0 Innings 25% Bailey Ober - 87.0 pitches per start (bottom 12%), 5.76 innings per start 6.0+ Innings 65% 5.0+ Innings 84% <5.0 Innings 16% SWR just wasn't efficient throwing strikes, but he had plus location as he put his pitches where they needed to be. He just didn't have any plus "stuff." Here are his Stuff+ grades Fastball 77 (35 grade) Slider 95 (45 grade) Curve 90 (45 grade) Change 107 (55 grade) Location 106 (60 grade, less spread for location) Basically, what I'm saying is SWR didn't earn his results early in the season. He was lucky and the scouting reports weren't out yet. He's not going to be an efficient pitcher because he has to be careful where he places his pitches or they'll get walloped because they don't move particularly well so he's not the kind of guy who can be expected to pitch deeper into games. It's great SWR was able to "save the season" as people will put it, but he didn't save it by being great, he saved it with a little luck and just not being horrible until he tired out. I don't think he's done enough to deserve a spot in the opening day rotation. He does deserve a shot at competing for it, though.

Paddack

Paddack

I think injuries could easily dictate the rotation. Also, have to look at flexibility in terms of rostering. Both Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa have options. Chris Paddack and Eiberson Castellano do not have options the Twins can use. The bullpen appears to be bursting at the seams as well. There are 21 pitchers on the 40 man, LOL. SP - Pablo Lopez (no options) SP - Joe Ryan (3 options) SP - Bailey Ober (1 option) SP - Chris Paddack (no options) SP - Eiberson Castalleno - (no options, potential bullpen candidate) ------------------------------------------- SP - Simeon Woods Richardson (1 option) SP - David Festa (3 options) SP - Zebby Matthews (3 options) SP - Marco Raya (3 options) SP - Travis Adams (3 options) RP - Jhoan Duran (1 option) RP - Griffin Jax (2 options) RP - Danny Coulombe (no options) RP - Brock Stewart (no options) RP - Michael Tonkin (no options) RP - Cole Sands (1 option) RP - Jorge Alcala (2 options) RP - Matt Canterino (1 option) ------------------------------------------ RP - Justin Topa (2 options) RP - Louie Varland (1 option) RP - Kody Funderburk (2 options) There will be injuries. Brock Stewart is questionable to be ready opening day based on comments already. It's tough to say how things work out.

Regarding Gasper, I think it's a long shot he makes the roster out of ST, especially with the recent pick ups of Cartaya and France. Gasper's got 3 options so there's no rush on him at all. The one thing I want answered about him is can he catch? If he can catch during ST, there's a chance the Twins call his number this year. Judging him based on the outcome of 23 PA makes zero sense to me, but his blunt refusal to swing the bat during those 23 PAs is more concerning. If Gasper doesn't impress in ST or doesn't look like he can catch, I'd be surprised if he's not DFA'd. Cartaya has a single option, and I'd expect he'll be the primary catcher in AAA even though it's not ideal. He'd probably have a chance at making the MLB roster if he were left handed or if Vazquez gets moved before the season starts which I think is still a real possibility. Injuries around the league coupled with a good ST from Cartaya could make moving Vazquez much more palatable for both the Twins and a partner. Julien and Miranda both have only 1 option left, and both have had some substantial success at the MLB level. Having them start the year in AAA seems far-fetched to me. Brooks Lee looked terrible last year (yes, he was worse at the plate than Julien) and Lee has 3 options remaining. I think Brooks Lee likely starts off at AAA barring a trade, especially given Baldelli's comments that he expects Castro to be playing a lot of 2B at this point. I think Camargo is likely to be DFA'd if Gasper looks like he can catch, and again, barring any trade action. Carrying 5 catchers on the 40 man is too heavy. I can't see any of the NRI guys making the roster. There's so much fringe depth on the team already.

The SEC in NCAA is probably equivalent to Rookie Ball or so. There have been an incalculable number prospects who look great in the low minors in small sample sizes only to fall apart at higher levels, even in the Twins' system. Jordan Balazovic was a sure-thing ace in A+ ball at age 20 for example. The potential ceiling started to show at AA, and it collapsed at AAA/MLB. Pitchers need to not only have great stuff, but they need to be able to throw it for strikes with some command. Balazovic did not have great stuff despite being unhittable and rocking a 12 K/9 with an outstanding 4.5 K/BB ratio at A+ ball while being 3 years younger than Prielipp.

Adding pitches is fine as a concept, but it doesn't work out all that often. Morris is a 5 pitch guy already. If none of those pitches is good enough to get righties out in AAA as a RHP, they're certainly not going to play at the MLB level. Nobody needs a 6th pitch, just a better 2nd pitch. Hopefully, Morris can refine his approach and pitches to get the K rate or grounder rate up in AAA. Living in the zone giving up 25% line drives isn't going to work in MLB.

I think he'd come up as a starter, not a bullpen arm if Prielipp is dominating. I'm not convinced the Twins won't have depth issues this year. The TD Hype Machine is burning hot blue flames for Prielipp right now, but I think it would be prudent to cool it down a bit. The consensus I've seen is there is no consensus because nobody is talking about him other than TD. This is a big year for Prielipp to prove his stuff against real competition. Prielipp is a 3 pitch guy which can be limiting out of the rotation, and a 23 year old college pick blowing the doors off low minors guys in short outings isn't going to turn too many heads. https://www.prospects1500.com/top-50-lists/minnesota-twins-top-50-prospects-2025/ Prielipp ended 2024 outside the top 20 for MLB, and ended 2024 as #17 for Fangraphs. He started 2025 as #13 for Prospects1500. There is no doubt a guy like Prielipp still has an enormous ceiling, but until he's pitching against high minors talent and going through the order more than once, it's impossible to truly grade his stuff. If Prielipp has a good spring and starts the year off hot in AA, I expect he'll garner a lot of attention, but expecting the kind of performance which would make him one of the best 13 arms for the MLB roster is too much of a leap for me.

France has quite a bit more raw power than Miranda, and it's not like there's no reason to believe France could rebound when you dig into the batted ball stuff compared to his history. He traded some line drives for grounders last year and his bat speed was down a tick which correlates to the reduced pull rate. That said, I don't bet on the rebound for a guy who is now in his 30s and clearly should be viewed as a DH, and I don't want him taking experience at 1B away from Miranda.

Since he ended last year at 3.0 inning outings, I'd think he'd pick back up there for maybe April. April 3.0 inning, 50 pitches max May 4.0 inning, 60 pitches max June 4.0 inning. 70 pitches max July 5.0 inning. 75 pitches max August 5.0 inning. 80 pitches max September 6.0 inning. 85 pitches max 100 innings-ish total Something like that is what I'd expect to see, though obviously not that steady on a start to start basis. I think a lot of it depends on whether or not Prielipp can remain healthy. It's a tall call since Prielipp has mostly been out of action for so long. Will his conditioning hold up or will he start having fatigue during the long season? That 98mph in mid-Feb isn't necessarily a great thing if he's pushing like it's a tryout and risking his arm. I also don't think there's almost any chance of seeing Prielipp out of the 'pen at the MLB level. He's not on the 40 man and he doesn't need to be added until this offseason. The Twins shouldn't need to manage his innings late in the year, and while he'll probably start off in AA, that's still a lot of ground to cover where he'll have to A) be outstanding B) remain healthy where the Twins C) have a real need for a reliever and D) will trust an unproven MiLB player to provide those reliever innings.

Like 5 days ago Miranda was "going to get a lot of work over there" shifting to now where it feels like Baldelli has practically endorsed France as the every day guy.

Still BURNS me the Twins gave more opportunities to Kyle Garlick than they did Brent Rooker.

This is a huge year for Varland. I think the Twins have seen all they're willing to see of Varland in the rotation. He hasn't been lights out in the bullpen, either, though. .261/.301/.426 OPS .727 against. 6.44 ERA, 3.54 FIP as a reliever. He's had the same issue as a reliever as he had as a starter. His pitches don't have plus movement enough against MLB hitters so those hitters have been able to square the ball up too frequently. The good news is as a reliever, Varland can adjust his repertoire to eliminate less effective offerings altogether to further refine his best stuff. That may elevate his game. Varland certainly is better out of the 'pen, but it remains to be seen if he's a mop up guy or a steady middle innings option. Taking a step forward as a true bullpen weapon seems a bit of a reach to me right now.

Christian Vazquez, your new right fielder when a lefty gets up in the opposing bullpen, LOL

Think so? Shipping Castellano back to the Phillies before even seeing an MLB game? I don't actually have the stats on how many Rule 5 guys never see opening day, but I'd imagine it's fairly rare to offer guys back before they get any MLB time.

Austin Martin MLB #22 prospect 2021 (with Twins) MLB #52 prospect 2022 In my opinion, you're both overvaluing Lee, and undervaluing Martin, historically in terms of how they were viewed from a scouting profile. Yes, Martin dropped a whopping 30 spots to #52 in all of MLB. a22 AA Lee 399 PA .292/.365/.476 OPS .841, ISO .183, wRC+ 120 a22 AA Martin 418 PA .270/.414/.382 OPS .796, ISO .112, wRC+ 128 Both were considered to have elite hit tools, but Martin was also considered a potential plus runner. Lee was graded a little higher in power, and a much more sure fielder. At the EoY 2021, Fangraphs, MLB, Prospects1500 all had Martin #1. By the end of 2022, people had cooled on him, and 2023 was just as bad for Martin. Martin's exit velocities suggested he had some 45/50 grade power potential (probably where Lee really is), but his flat swing produces too many ground balls. Many people feel like the Twins were unfairly trying to turn Martin into a slugger in 2021, but it seems more like the Twins were just trying to get that 45/50 grade power to play into doubles and occasional home runs at this point. For Martin to hit more like Miranda in terms of power. Lee was pretty miserable in 168 PA in AAA during 2023, but in 114 PA he was great in 2024, but Lee's .298 ISO driven by 8 HR in that tiny stretch suggested severe regression was on its way unless you believe he's a 30-40 HR slugger. The book isn't closed on Lee, but there are plenty of rippling red flags at the beach at this point. Stuff which would be better off noted rather than risking being swept out to sea.

Austin Martin was acknowledged as one of MLB's most ready prospects a few years ago, and Martin is quite a bit more athletic than Lee.

Only ones leaving the organization, heh.

Brooks Lee looks like an old-timey baseball player and I like it. Anyway, his back may have impacted his game last year, but honestly, it seemed like he was more limited by his swing speed and ability to catch up to MLB fastballs. The biggest thing which may be holding Lee back is his conditioning. He could benefit greatly by adding some speed and strength to get that swing speed up. Have to wait and see on him. Adding some physical ability is much easier than adding the ability to recognize pitches and the skills needed for smooth fielding.

Brooks Lee was very rough at the MLB level. He showed the limits of his athleticism matched criticism in scouting reports. If he puts up another 200+ plate appearances which look like last year, his MLB career will be limited to utility/spotty playing time and the clock will start on his opportunities going forward.

Eiberson Castellano is my pick. If he can learn to get that first pitch strike rate up, he could be very good.

I feel like I've talked about what constitutes an "ace" to me a few times. There are a set of criteria which need to be met or expected. It basically boils down to fan confidence. Fans should expect their team will win the game when their ace is on the mound. Stat-wise, something like this: 1) Season ERA under 3.30. 2) 75%+ of starts ending with at least 5.0 innings and an ERA under 4.00. 3) 75%+ of starts ending with at least 6.0 innings and 3 or fewer ER. 4) Streaks of at least 4-5 games in a row meeting #2/3 Joe Ryan is pitching in his age 29 season, folks. He's long since left the world of prospects and he's nearing the age where his velocity is likely to start declining. He's never had an ace season in his career or even close to it. The question could be could Joe Ryan become a #2 or establish himself as a reliable #3. Ace shouldn't even be in the discussion.