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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    What is with these extreme positions on Castellano? This false dilemma where the Twins have to decide whether or not to roster him today and if they do roster him, they're going to be required to keep him all year or use him as their closer. It's like Castellano keeps leaving burning bags of excrement on doorsteps around town or something. I don't care if Castellano is walking people right now. We don't even know how the Twins are having him pitch right now. Are they asking Castellano to throw pitches he needs to work on or are they trying to have Castellano locate pitches in certain spots. Spring Training, especially for young pitchers, is not generally about winning games or getting elite results; it's about getting into a mechanical rhythm and getting a feel for pitches. Pablo Lopez is walking 7.27 per 9 (15.3%) in Spring Training which is triple his rate last year. The staff will evaluate his stuff, his control and his command to determine where he might be able to be used.
  2. bean5302
    Funderburk isn't going to get a chance at making an appearance on the 26 man until he starts throwing strikes. Last year was a real catastrophe for him and he's fallen off way down the depth chart at this point. The biggest reasons he's on the 40 man is he has options and throws lefty.
  3. bean5302
    So potentially 300 prospects in MLB with a 60 grade tool from Fangraphs, and the very highest rating the Twins have in the entire franchise is 65 grade.
  4. bean5302
    The Twins are in a good spot for CF in my opinion. I've noticed there's a serious dearth of MiLB talent at the CF position. More and more teams seem to be trying to shoehorn questionable grade defenders into the position favoring bat over defense.
  5. bean5302
    What I took from this is the Twins don't have a lot to brag about. A 60 grade tool for prospects is fairly common.
  6. bean5302
    Personally, I still think Gasper is a long shot to make the roster. He's got 3 options and there's no rush to see him at the MLB level. I also don't think what the coaches are saying about Gasper is that he's good defensively so much as he's reliable and hard working so he's adequate in regard to making the basic plays defensively so I think the "good defense" is old school is a bit out of context. So many of the comments over the past couple months on TD have been about how they don't even need to see Gasper play to know he sucks defensively. I'll take some observations about Gasper being adequate at this point. Gapser has clearly made an effort to be more aggressive at the plate, and that's the single most important thing I've seen from his results.
  7. bean5302
    If the trade costs Zebby Matthews would you just do it? It's all about what the asking price would be (assuming this could happen). I don't see the reason the Phillies wouldn't demand a significant prospect. Castellano is in the Twins' top 20, and he may be valued higher than the #16 rank he holds on MLB. There's a roster crunch for all the teams right now. The Phillies might bank on getting Castellano back for free, just like the banked on nobody really having eyes on him for the Rule 5 draft. Philadelphia is in a more powerful position than the Twins in this scenario since the Phillies aren't losing anything they have.
  8. bean5302
    It's Spring Training. Pitchers are going to force pitches which aren't working for them at this point because the pitcher wants to get a better feel for the pitch. Results for a pitcher like Lopez are far less important than his velocity. Lopez's fastball velocity was 95-96 today. I'd be concerned if Lopez's velocity was 92-93mph, but it's not.
  9. bean5302
    Wasn't sarcasm for this exact quoted reason. Dobnak got a very fast and lucrative offer to lock him up long term. What would have happened had the Twins not been more aggressive with extending him than 99.9% of all players? Let's be honest, Dobnak would be a MiLB free agent right now or playing in Korea/Japan or something like that. I'm glad Randy made generational money. I'm glad he should be 100% financially secure for the rest of his life with no need to ever uber anybody around again. From everything I've read, he's a great guy to know. The feelings on this site are not personal towards Dobnak. Randy suffered a pretty nasty injury to his most important finger on his throwing hand, and from what I've read, it's a permanent damage situation. While I think everybody here wishes him well personally, they also fault the Twins for jumping the gun on Dobnak given the imposed spending limits and other front office contract decisions which have hindered potential roster improvements. We've all seen Randy's stuff at the MLB level. It doesn't play because his pitches don't have enough separation from one another, and his sinker just doesn't have the bite it used to. That's how it is. Dobnak should be incredibly thankful he's been able to work through his injuries and try to reinvent his career all while under a guaranteed contract playing in a city next door to the MLB team with the potential of pitching in the big show any given week. The Twins have given him opportunities, but they haven't worked out.
  10. bean5302
    Eddie Julien is holding his own so far with a 12% BB rate and 16% K rate which I like to see. That K rate drop is encouraging. Julien's swing rate is up slightly, but I'm not sure the K rate can hold as he's only seeing a 28% first pitch strike rate so far. Brooks Lee wouldn't take walks last year and he's not taking them in ST, either. Wallner's numbers look rough again this spring, but a .000 BABIP on like 15-20 balls in play seems insanely unlucky. Still 3 weeks to go and competition levels will get much tougher in the next week or so as fringe players start getting reassigned/released.
  11. bean5302
    I've compared Keirsey against his center fielder peers in the divisions he's played for RF/9 for years. Same divisions. Same lineups/hitters as other center fielders saw. Keirsey has been low range to high range "mediocre." The good 'ol eye test is always based on a handful of catches and opportunities where fielding metrics are based on every single opportunity, hundreds of them. The fielding metrics don't ignore bad plays or amazing plays because they're pulling for a prospect to be better or worse. Baldelli made it clear in his statement that Keirsey wasn't close to MLB caliber 2 years ago... at age 26 (already beyond legit prospect age). Keirsey says he's made major adjustments and Baldelli says he sees them. How much of those adjustments are related to Keirsey lacking the ability but being highly polished, I don't know. What I will say is guys transforming from non-prospects into quality MLB players in their late 20s is almost unheard of. What is common is a luck fueled career year (.370 BABIP) or polish making a player look like they're MLB caliber despite lacking the actual ability, and this is why I haven't had faith in Keirsey's out of the blue performance at the plate last year. Anthony Prato anybody? If Keirsey keeps hitting well in AAA this year, he'll get his shot. Both Buxton and Bader are highly injury prone, Larnach is probably best suited to DH due to his lack of speed, and the Twins are thin at proven quality in the infield which likely sees Castro playing mostly there.
  12. bean5302
    This is really tough. I couldn't find anything in the CBA specifically pertaining to this issue, and the "full rights" trade scenario has appeared on the MLB.com website since 2020 (found snapshots from 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 on the waybackmachine) so this clause existed in error for 5+ years? It also makes sense to me to have the full rights provision. In the full rights trade scenario, the player is never DFA'd, never removed from the 40 man, never waived. I tend to trust what is documented on MLB.com since I've run into plenty of executives, management, etc who have been incorrect in their assumptions across my professional career. In any case, Castellano's much higher profile now after being selected in the Rule 5 by the Twins. There are a ton of teams who'll be looking into him. Even if the Twins could work out a deal with Philadelphia, it'd be expensive, IMHO. Much more expensive than people are expecting here. Castellano was arguably better than every single Twins pitching prospect not named Zebby Matthews in AA last year (including Andrew Morris). He's not going to make it through waivers, and the Twins would have to give up something pretty substantial when there's just no need to do it. If Castellano is as good or better than Ronny Henriquez or Kody Funderburk, that's the bar. The Twins have another 3 weeks to evaluate his stuff. If it looks good in ST, but he's bad in MLB blow out games, fine, DFA and see if they can get him through waivers (won't happen now).
  13. bean5302
    Of course they would. Julien is on the same value tier as Jose Miranda, SWR, Zebby Matthews, and Luke Keaschall.
  14. bean5302
    It comes down to this. If you want to ignore Paddack's struggles over the past 4 years and pretend he's the same prospect pitcher he was 2 TJ's and 6 years ago, there's good reason to be optimistic. If you value Paddack's actual results and performance based on the last several years, there isn't a good reason to lock him into the rotation right now.
  15. bean5302
    Can we stop pretending Joe Ryan was developed by the Twins someday? The Twins were interested in Ryan because the team was desperate for starters as Falvey had failed to draft/develop for years and Ryan had just pitched 11 starts with a 3.63 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 3.40 xFIP for Tampa Bay's AAA club and gone to the Olympics. The front office wasn't interested in Ryan because he was unique. They were interested in Ryan because he was MLB ready and looked serviceable. This front office drafts pitchers who don't project as MLB caliber because of poor velocity, they draft them in later rounds where they're a dime a dozen, then the development staff focuses on adding 5mph to the pitchers fastball velocity hoping the pitcher's arm can handle it. Standard M.O. The team does seem to lean on the philosophy more than other front offices.
  16. bean5302
    I didn't split. I just chose the seasons where he was a starting pitcher for the last 4 years (flip flopped 2022/2023). He's not remotely the same pitcher he was in 2019. The point is the expectation a pitcher who hasn't gotten good results as a starter in years and years is still a guy who is looked at as a rotation lock.
  17. bean5302
    Ty France is almost certain to make the team now, I think. I don't like it much, but I didn't like Carlos Santana making the team last year, either. So maybe it'll work out?
  18. bean5302
    As a starter: 4.73 5.07 5.40 4.99 Those are his last 4 season ERAs. Yeah, I'll pass.
  19. bean5302
    No restrictions on DFA/releasing injured players that I know of. J.T. Chargois was DFA'd by the Twins in 2018 while recovering from TJ as I recall.
  20. bean5302
    Have you checked out at one of those kiosks before? I choose the self-checkout all the time at stores from the moment the lanes were added. At Target Field, though... it's been miserable. 1) You don't just scan items. Every item is a manual look up where you're tapping through multiple screens to find and select the items as if you were a trained employee. Except in the case of the Club Level's cantina where you place your food on a station and it uses lasers to and a scale to determine what you've chosen automatically. 2) When checking out, the POS isn't intuitive, I frequently encountered lag of 2-5 seconds, and the actual system is different for different stands. 3) If you have Sweet Spot, the order of operations isn't intuitive, the lag makes it seem like the system isn't responding and there are at least 3 different versions of bar code scanners in use each needing your phone to be held at different angles and positions. With the lag, sometimes they scan, sometimes they simply won't scan, and even with the staff taking over. I've given up on Sweet Spot discounts more than a couple times because I was sick of it after 30 seconds of trying. So yeah, normal self check out kiosks, great. I'm all for them. I'm the fast person in the lane who starts and finishes while the other 3 lanes are staring at the screen like zombies. 4627 = green kale, 4013 = braeburn apples, 4011 = banana (maybe I make green smoothies sometimes?)
  21. bean5302
    Canterino received a $1.1MM signing bonus back in 2019. He's 27 years old now and unless he's on the IL all year, he'll burn his final MiLB option. I'd expect the Twins to move him to the 60 day IL and DFA and release him before the end of the year. Canterino won't get anything other than a MiLB deal. The time for Canterino to make a decision in regard to his future career might be close at hand now. The $45k annual pay rate for him being on the 40 man in AAA, much less the $35k he'll make on a MiLB deal certainly wouldn't offset the compensation he'd be making professionally in a business setting.
  22. bean5302
    A quality 4th pitch would be huge for Festa's long term projections, but it's hard to develop new pitches out of the blue. Joe Ryan has experimented with his repertoire for years with varying levels of success when it comes to adding pitches. We'll have to wait until the regular season to see the impact.
  23. bean5302
    Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but the rigid structure I'm understanding is: Castellano isn't good enough to be in the bullpen. The Twins have no options but to keep him on the roster the entire year if he makes it out of camp. The Twins must deploy Castellano in scenarios they don't want to use him. Castellano will therefore result in the Twins losing games they should have won. My argument would be: Castellano's peripherals in AA last year were better than any Twins prospect not named Zebby Matthews. Castellano has multiple potential plus pitches which could make him a potent weapon out of the bullpen (or possibly even the rotation) even out of camp. The Twins can evaluate Castellano for his current and future value before offering him a roster spot during Spring Training. The Twins can give Castellano work in reliever work in blowout games to see him in action early in the season before the bullpen gets worn down and they can shuffle #7 bullpen arms back and forth in AAA to keep relievers fresh. The Twins can work out a trade or send Castellano back to the Phillies if they feel he's not worthy of the 8th spot in an MLB bullpen (or better). There are many guys in the rotation or bullpen which are suspect where it would be awfully hard for me to argue they're going to increase the winning percentage of the team in a way that elevates the teams status at the end of the season vs. a small sample of Castellano. Matt Canterino - shoulder strain (serious) Michael Tonkin - shoulder strain (will miss at least a couple weeks) Justin Topa - shoulder tightness (testing) Zebby Matthews - right hip strain (not serious) and we've got a few weeks to go. Who do you trust more? Kody Funderburk or Eiberson Castellano and if that's Funderburk, is that by enough to lose a probable #10 org prospect?
  24. bean5302
    So now the sticking point is the term "low-leverage reliever" you just don't like. Okay. "Reliever who isn't expected to be as good as the best guys in the bullpen so you don't use them in critical situations when you can avoid it." Seems like a long role name, but if it makes you happier... Every single team. All. of. them. Have relievers they prefer entering games in non-critical situations because they're not as reliable or dominant as the best arms in their bullpen. There is no ground for debating this. It is established fact with literally thousands of examples over recent seasons and that is what a "low-leverage reliever" is. Depending on what happens during the reliever being on the mound, leverage indexes change for every single reliever in the game so that information is not valuable. As far as Castellano's versatility the Twins have plenty of versatility with him. It's called letting him go back to the Phillies if he's not good enough. They can ditch Castellano any time they want. They could also arrange a trade for him, but expect the cost to be similar to a guy like Andrew Morris or another top 10 prospect. You're taking an extremely rigid position here.
  25. bean5302
    Stats from players at AA last year. Leader in bold. #5 - a23 - AA - 9.19 K/9 (25.2%), 2.04 BB/9 (5.6%), 41.9% GB, 1.90 ERA, 2.36 FIP, 3.33 xFIP (Morris) #6 - a21 - AA - 9.62 K/9 (24.8%), 4.27 BB/9 (11.0%), 41.8% GB, 4.27 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 4.06 xFIP (Raya) #9 - a23 - AA - 10.91 K/9(28.8%), 4.64 BB/9(12.2%), 36.9% GB, 2.59 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 3.92 xFIP (Lewis) #12 - a22 - AA - 9.00 K/9 (23.3%), 3.00 BB/9 (7.8%), 39.0% GB, 4.71 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 3.75 xFIP (Culpepper) #17 - a23 - AA - 11.16 K/9 (30.9%), 2.01 BB/9 (5.6%), 47.9% GB, 3.79 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 3.08 xFIP (Castellano) >20 - a24 - AA - 9.08 K/9 (24.5%), 2.33 BB/9 (6.3%), 42.5% GB, 3.67 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 3.58 xFIP (Adams)
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