bean5302

Christian Vazquez isn't a catcher because he played DH in 3 games last year.

My expectation is Brooks Lee will never pan out. He won't be able to hit well enough to play full time, and his "versatility" is the same as Eddie Julien a player with the same physical skill set.

The payroll cut and the subsequent September collapse, the lack of accountability for the manager and front office. Dave St. Peter wasn't held accountable so much as the Pohlads saw an opportunity to cut costs with the team up for sale, IMHO. The cheap and limited giveaways, the falling service levels, cable TV debacle, crappy new logo, and lousy season ticket holder experiences. I have no faith in the management from top to the bottom. When you feel the team is led by the utterly incompetent, you're not going to have a lot of optimism. If the Pohlad's backtrack and don't sell the team, they're going to have a very, very hard time winning fans back.

There are going to be 8 guys in the bullpen including guys who are back end relievers and fan favorites with options. There is no need to hold Castellano on the roster for the full season, they can waive him whenever. If the Twins are blowing out their bullpen in April in all tight games, they've got a heck of a lot more of a problem than their #8 bullpen arm. This apparent vision of the Twins stashing Griffin Jax in AAA so Castellano can stay on the roster is ridiculous as is the expectation Castellano is going to come in to pitch the last 3 innings of game 163 this year because the Twins will have no other options and Rob Manfred has a group of hired goons insisting the Twins can never waive Castellano. Castellano may not be good enough. The coaches will evaluate his stuff, what works and how well he can place his pitches. That said, Castellano's numbers were more impressive than any Twins pitcher not named Zebby Matthews in AA last year. Somehow, I think fans around here would be losing their minds at the suggestion Andrew Morris or Marco Raya be released.

This is a comparison I’ve been wanting to tackle for a long time. In part due to the legendary status of Johan Santana amongst Twins fans. Santana was the greatest pitcher in MLB for a very short time, and a lot of Twins fans look back with a fascination focused on a Twins starter who was a legitimate ace posting up historically impressive ERAs for years in a row. A pitcher who was nationally recognized as peerless. What about Frank Viola, though? While fans recognize the name and revere the World Series Championship Viola brought the team in 1987, often Viola is considered a far cry from the dominant rotation arm Santana was. How does Viola really stack up vs. the legend of Johan? Peaks It's not open for legitimate debate. Johan Santana was the greatest pitcher in baseball for the years 2004-2006. Santana led the AL all three years in WAR, ERA+, Strikeouts and WHIP. His dominance on the mound was rewarded with a 55-19 record over the span, never winning fewer than 16 games. In Santana’s most dominant season of 2004, Santana put up a colossal 8.7 bWAR across 228 innings with a record of 20-6 with a 2.61 ERA and an ERA+ 182. Surely Viola can’t compare, right? Probably a lot closer than you think. Viola’s 1987 and 1998 were also insane. 8.1 bWAR in 251 innings followed by 7.7 bWAR in 255 innings, a record of 17-10 followed by 24-7 with ERA’s of 2.90 and 2.64 adjusting to still gaudy ERA+ number of 159 and 154, respectively. Viola took home the 1988 Cy Young Award for his efforts, and though he was not the triple crown winner like Santana, Viola’s results were comparable to the best using today’s metrics. Ultimately, Santana and Viola were comparable in terms of value during their peaks. Santana’s peak was higher and more obvious, but the two pitchers mirror each other pretty closely in terms of value as you stretch that peak out. Viola’s best years stretched 10 years starting with 1984’s 4.5 bWAR 3.21 ERA (ERA+ 131) season through his final great season at age 33 with the Red Sox where he pitched to a 3.14 ERA (ERA+ 148) and another 4.3 bWAR. Santana’s stretch into his transition years from 2003’s 4.1 bWAR, 3.07 ERA (ERA+ 148) start until his age 31 season where he put up 4.7 bWAR effort during the 2.98 ERA (ERA+ 131) with the Mets. In terms of value: Best single year? Santana. Best 2 years? Viola. Best 3 years? Santana. You get the picture. Isolating Santana’s 8yr peak gets you to 6.0 annual bWAR and an astonishing ERA+ 150. Isolating Viola’s 7yr that way gets him to 5.6 annual bWAR an ERA of 3.19 and an impressive ERA+ 128 dragged down by 2 mediocre seasons being clumped in there. Career Performance Johan Santana finished his career as a 2x Cy Young, and 4x All Star. He accumulated 51.1 bWAR and 2,025 innings pitched across 12 seasons with a stellar 3.20 ERA and a truly epic ERA+ 136. In fact, Santana’s career ERA+ 136 ties him for 26th in MLB history. The only mark against Santana is how short his career really was. That said, Santana benefitted greatly from starting off as a reliever while learning how to throw his signature changeup protecting him from pre-peak innings dragging his career results down while his shoulder injury put the kibosh on his career after his age 31 season. The truncation protected his career stats from imminent decline which was already being foreshadowed by the beginnings of up and down results and a declining K rate. Still, it’s undeniable that Santana was a rock never having a hiccup year from 2002-2010. Frank Viola’s career ended as a 1x Cy Young, 3x All Star, 1x World Series Championship, 1x World Series MVP. Viola’s 47.1 career bWAR across 2,836 innings and 15 years only slightly trails Santana. His 3.73 ERA and career ERA+ of 112 reflected his rough start, the futile attempted comebacks through age 36 totaling 4 years of negative WAR. Unlike Santana who was shielded and carefully developed, an immature Frank Viola was thrown into the fire by a desperate Twins organization in 1982, and the results reflected Viola’s fiery emotional immaturity and lack of polish. The career WAR makes it clear Viola was a true ace over a long span of years in his own right. Post season performances This one is all Viola. Viola pitched the Twins into the World Series and then took home the World Series MVP as the Twins won it all in 1987. Viola was 3-1 used only as a starter in the only year he saw postseason action. The Twins were 4-1 in games Viola pitched. Viola’s Game 1 vs. the Tigers was good with 7 innings and 3 ER before putting runners on in the 8th and being lifted for Reardon who made a mess. The Twins won anyway thanks to the hitters. Game 2 was a 5 inning 2 ER performance where one ER was once again the gift of the Twins’ bullpen. Viola earned the World Series MVP by pitching 3 of the 7 games, taking the mound for games 1 and game 7 allowing 1 run in 8.0 innings of work in both instances. Johan Santana got 4 separate years of chances to pitch in the post season with a consistently great Twins team and more teams making the playoffs. His record was 1-3, with the Twins often paying the price when Santana stepped onto the mound; directly being credited with losses from bullpen meltdowns. Santana’s lone win came out of the bullpen where he nearly gave up the only 2 runs the A’s scored before the Twins hitters saved the day to reverse fate. Later, in 2004 and again in 2006 as a starter, Santana pitched excellently. Unfortunately, he was out-dueled in 2 of 3 starts, and Santana was lifted from games earlier than Viola giving Gardy’s bullpen instincts too many opportunities. Career Ends When it comes to the end of their careers, the two pitchers are again, similar. Santana’s well documented career ending shoulder capsule tear at age 31 failed to heal properly, even after an additional surgery and attempted comeback with the Blue Jays following his disastrous 6 years with the Mets. Viola’s career was also ended by injury. In mid-September of 1993 while just 33 years old and sporting a sparkly 3.14 ERA, Viola was shut down with elbow issues leading to Tommy John surgery in an era where the surgery was much less successful. Perhaps some of the high failure rates were from what would be considered utter medical malpractice today. Viola was back on the mound to open 1994. Yes. You read that right. 6 months after TJ, Viola was starting games in MLB. I can only imagine the rehab process involved rubbing dirt on the elbow and ignoring the pain. Astonishingly, Viola’s body was unable to heal in 6 months what needs 18 months on average these days with far more advanced practices. The ligament replacement obviously failed, and on top of that, muscles had been torn as well. Viola never returned to form though he continued to attempt comebacks with an arm that had been MacGyver’d back together a couple times. Parting Ways Again, both players are extremely similar being ace pitchers traded from the Twins to the Mets. Viola was traded mid-season after contract negotiations broke down thanks in no part to the front office rescinding the offer they agreed to, but unlike Santana who was beloved and supported by fans railing against the “cheap Pohlads” most fans took the side of the owners in Viola’s case. Twins fans were furious Viola would push for top dollar or test free agency after coming off a WS MVP and Cy Young in back to back years. The difference in fan support is possibly a major factor in how well Viola is remembered as Viola was essentially given the “don’t let the door hit you on the way out” treatment. Undoubtedly the pain of the loss of Viola was buffered by the acquisition of core players for the 1991 Twins World Series Championship team. As part of the Viola trade, the Twins got back 1991 ace Kevin Tapani and elite closer Rick Aguilera. Conversely, Santana brought back Carlos Gomez, who was flipped for JJ Hardy who was flipped for what was AAAA relief pitching. Summary Viola and Santana are highly similar in many ways. Having similar slow starts to their careers, both being acquired from other teams, both turning into elite Cy Young winners for the Twins, both leaving the Twins for the Mets, and both having their careers ended many years early by injury. Johan Santana was better, but not nearly as much as many people seem to think, and Viola brought the Twins the 1987 World Series Championship where Santana often brought playoff hand wringing. Santana is especially appreciated by fans here possibly because of his Twins-heavy career with nearly 80% of his career WAR coming while in a Twins uniform, and Santana had the advantage of playing with the Twins during a period where they were consistently making the playoffs. Frank Viola was truly dominant on the mound for many years putting together Cy Young caliber 6+ WAR campaigns for the Twins, Mets and the Red Sox, but unlike Santana, Viola stacked just over 50% of his career WAR together in a Twins uniform while surprisingly appearing in more All Star games in a Mets uniform than with Minnesota. Both pitchers were true, legitimate aces who gave Twins fans the expectation a game would be won versus the hope a game would be won, and it's quite possible both could be in the Hall of Fame today if it weren't for the career ending injury bug.

White Sox could help the Twins into a wildcard playoff spot this year. That's the only relevance they have.

WAR is the best metric to evaluate player value. There is little room for debate on the subject, and while you could debate a little on the value of comparing pitchers in different eras using annual WAR directly due to how pitchers were utilized, WAR is king. It demonstrates how much value a player added relative to other players. What would have Blyleven's WAR / ERA+ looked like if he only had to pitch 5.0-7.0 innings? We'll never know, but WAR at least tells us how much value he added. In any case, Bert Blyleven was arguably one of the 10 greatest pitchers in MLB history, and arguably the 2nd best pitcher in MLB whereas Johan Santana was not remotely close career wise. Johan Santana was similar to a guy like Bret Saberhagen or Frank Viola. On to Radke. I compared Blyleven to Santana as they were both Cy Young-like pitchers. I said Radke was among the elite. Santana was the best pitcher in MLB, period, but for a very short period. My argument is Radke was not "steady," but he also wasn't the best pitcher in baseball. Certainly a bonefide ace pitcher for many of the years he pitched. Radke constantly gets overlooked and downplayed in terms of his contributions. You're seriously downplaying 5+ WAR seasons as innings eater stuff. This is the kind of absolute crap I've come to expect from people when it comes to Radke. How many Twins pitchers have produced a 5+ WAR season after the last time Radke did that for the 4th time in a Twins jersey? Three pitchers. Johan Santana 2x (2005-2006), Francisco Liriano 1x (2010) and Sonny Gray 1x (2023). How many pitchers in baseball produce 5+ WAR seasons a year? About 10. The top 10 pitchers in all of MLB. Downplaying Radke's level of production as durable innings eater stuff is ludicrously disrespectful. Jim Kaat (HoF) career ERA+ of 108, and less career WAR (45.2) than Radke Jack Morris (HoF) career average ERA+ of 105, less career WAR (43.6) than Radke. Pablo Lopez's career ERA+ is 108. Frank Viola's career ERA+ is 112. Brad Radke's career ERA+ is 113 (45.6 career WAR all in a Twins uniform) Bert Blyleven's career ERA+ is 118. Radke gets the nod from me due to having a Twins WAR of 45.6 (2nd highest in Twins history behind Blyleven's 49.1) vs. Santana's 35.8. Like I pointed out, in Radke's era, he compared well to Hall of Famers. Again, Radke was not "steady;" he was not a mid rotation or back end innings eater guy, and he'd possibly have a Hall of Fame case if he'd have fixed his shoulder and kept pitching for another 5 years. Radke also may have had the most instrumental role in saving the Twins from contraction of any player. Radke forced Pohlad to the negotiating table, and he forced the Twins to open up their wallets to attempt to compete, and then Radke accepted a competitive offer from the Twins whereas Santana forced his way out looking for the biggest contract in baseball regardless of impact to the Twins' roster. Radke's efforts brought the Twins back to competitive play just before contraction. Radke had a bigger impact on the Twins than Santana's short 4 years as a dedicated rotation member.

Taking a look at their positions, many of their starters are only age 25-27 and could be expected to improve significantly at the plate this year, plus the addition of India to cover for OF weakness as the Royals version of Willi Castro. I think this year's Royals offense will be substantially better than last year. Bubic is the dark horse of the rotation. He's been sitting at 92-94mph with his fastball this spring, building off his excellent results as a reliever last year. If he emerges as a mid/upper rotation arm for the Royals this year, they could have a dominant rotation. I pick the Royals to win close to 90 games this year.

If you're talking about Royce Lewis, the doctors have talked about it. The 2 years he spent recovering from consecutive ACL reconstructions weakened the rest of his lower body making him susceptible to additional injuries. The severe quad strain last year didn't heal, and then he pulled his groin. Lewis was never 100%. I'm not sure if he'll ever be able to work his way back to "healthy"

I expect 6-8 weeks. All of April, maybe until 2nd week of May. He'll miss at least 30 games of the regular season.

We know what happened in 2010 so I'm comparing my expectations this year to what actually happened in 2010. That said, Liriano was perhaps the best starter in baseball in 2006. Obviously missed 2007 and a big portion of 2008, but he was very good in the 14 limited innings starts 2008. 2009 was a rough year for him (like Lopez's season last year), but Liriano had shown potential ace upside previously. When it comes to Pavano, Ryan's current track record wasn't as good as Pavano's was coming into 2010, and Ryan's typical full season (especially with the 2nd half flop), would be about on par with what Pavano did in 2010. I expect about a 4.50 ERA from Woods-Richardson this year. Maybe 1.0 WAR? Blackburn had a longer leash to get pummeled back in 2010, but with 12 of the 26 starts (46%) were at least 5.0 innings with less than a 4.00 ERA, and 14 of 26 (54%) being a quality start. Compared to SWR's numbers (43%) and (25%), respectively, Blackburn's 2010 was pretty even with SWR's 2024, IMHO.

Chris Paddack has only been healthy at a full season trade deadline once in his entire career (2019). A great strategy would be to trade him before the regular season opens (depending on any health issues that pop up) rather than having him blocking better pitchers.

Player 1: Max MPH throw: 83.2, Sprint Speed: 25.6 ft/sec - Miranda Player 4: Max MPH throw: 83.0, Sprint Speed: 26.7 ft/sec - Julien Player 3: Max MPH throw: 83.1, Sprint Speed: 25.6 ft/sec - Lee Player 2: Max MPH throw: 85.5, Sprint Speed: 26.6 ft/sec - Lewis Player 5: Max MPH throw: 92.3*, Sprint Speed: 27.9 ft/sec - Castro Player 6: Max MPH throw: 94.1, Sprint Speed: 26.8 ft/sec - Correa *Adjusted max based on average vs. max for Carlos Correa Physical skill sets for Miranda, Julien and Lee overlap with Julien probably being the most athletic of the three.

It's honestly just tough to say how many underlying issues there are. From specialized sports (year round focus on a singular sport/position/action) to the emphasis on velocity resulting in kids concentrating on throwing the ball harder rather than healthier so they can get drafted in the first place. There's a chicken-egg thing going on.

I think the Twins' rotation is deep rather than a monster. It resembles rotations of the past which were unable to advance the Twins in the playoffs due to the lack of a true ace or high end #2. 2010 - Liriano, Pavano, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn. Liriano > Lopez Pavano = Ryan Baker < Ober Slowey > Paddack Blackburn = SWR Can't see a big difference between them and what we have here in 2025. We have a rotation built to make the playoffs, not win in the playoffs. Anything can happen, but when the Twins have advanced, they've had a truly formidable top 2-3 pitchers in the rotation.

Viola vs. Santana would be an interesting debate. Santana probably has the edge, but Viola isn't as far out of the conversation on a career basis.

The results of the average pitcher throwing 95mph instead of 80-85mph. Stress on the body is directly related to the velocity.

...and just like that, Lewis pulls a hammy.

Brooks Lee has pretty much just made the opening day roster. Royce Lewis pulled his hamstring running to 1B. Looked pretty bad.

I think Brooks Lee just made the roster as the opening day 3B. That was a big strain judging on Lewis' reaction. My guess is he's not back before the beginning of June and that's also my answer on whether or not his lower body has healed. Terrible news, but not terribly unexpected.

If selected to be part of the 26 man, nobody has more pressure on them to produce than Eddie Julien IMHO. Royce Lewis - What I want to see is a sprint speed in that 28.0+ range along with results at the plate. Is his lower body healed up? Has he regained the athleticism? I think the biggest question for Lewis is defense. Baldelli will have him on a short leash at 3B (for better or worse). I'm not at all concerned about Matt Wallner or Byron Buxton.

It's interesting how so many people have decided Brooks Lee has a lot defensive value despite his poor range and weak arm. Brooks Lee was not good defensively last year. Like at all. Lee might make the opening day roster, but I think Julien will get the spot with Lee struggling a bit at the plate. I don't want to see Lee on the MLB roster until mid year after the debacle which was last year's plate performance where he was substantially worse than Julien over the season.

Bert Blyleven was the best. In terms of value added lifetime or in a single season or even in a 3 consecutive year stint meant to favor Santana, Blyleven barely eeks out another victory. 1973 - 9.7 bWAR Blyleven 2004 - 8.7 bWAR Santana Radke was not a "steady presence." He was an elite pitcher who retired at age 33, and he had a shot at the HoF if he hadn't decided to pitch a season with, literally, a broken shoulder. Radke had 3 consecutive seasons over 5 bWAR including 2 over 6 bWAR. From Radke's bWAR peak across 1998-2000, there were 3 pitchers who were better in bWAR in all MLB. Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and Kevin Brown. Nobody else. Not even Greg Maddux. Even using Fangraphs, Radke is #9 in MLB for fWAR from 1997-2001. The pitchers above Radke during that era? Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, Kevin Brown, Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettite. That's it. Not a single one of them has less than 60 career bWAR and all of them are HoF worthy in terms of production. Guys below Radke? David Wells, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and all of then pitched years and years after 2001 just in case you're thinking they were in the last couple years of their careers. Radke deserves way more respect than he gets. He was one of the greatest pitchers to ever play. I'd retire Radke's number before Santana.

Taller players will generally have a longer reach. How many times will a 1" greater reach prevent an error or result in an out? Once per year, maybe? UZR/150 for all 28 players with 1,000+ innings at 1B in the past two years. Highest = +3.7 (6'1" Michael Bush) Lowest = -5.3 (6'0" Spencer Torkleson) #2 - 6'4" #3 - 6'0" #4 - 6'0" There is no merit in selecting "tall" players for 1B in terms of defensive value.

SkyLab clearly wouldn't have fallen from orbit if it had been pumping roids.