bean5302

I'd take Clemens over Bride at DH/1B, but Bride has better utility, not that any team should be having both of them on the 26 man. There's at least some underlying value in Clemens' bat. With Bride, any production looks like its been all fluff. Last year, Bride had really great production in a fairly large sample size, but it was all smoke and mirrors. .276/.357/.461 OPS .818. 11% BB, 20% K. It all looks pretty good. Sample size? 272 PA. Small-ish, but starting to approach what should be a pretty steady number. BABIP even looks reasonable at .306. Until you see the wOBA .351 vs xwOBA .297 because of his poor line drive rate, sky high ground ball rate and also sky high pop up rate. Mean and max exit velocities were below average as well so there's a fairly low ceiling on Bride's bat. I think Bride is kind of interchangeable with Mickey Gasper.

What is this sorcery????? Is it a conspiracy or is it Royce Lewis playing 2B mid-year? Baseball Reference must have made this data up because here it says he played 2B. What do you make of it? Here's a link where you can voice your outrage at the folks at Sports Reference for making this data up. We both know Royce Lewis refused to play 2B last year. But clearly, Baseball Reference has engaged in a conspiracy to cover that up and make Royce look better. https://www.sports-reference.com/feedback/

Lewis is not opposed to playing 2B. He wasn't comfortable swapping out of the blue, and on a Rocco whim, to a premium defensive position he'd never played in his life during the end of a playoff race. A defensive position which requires more range than 3B while he was battling lower body injuries during the middle of his first major slump at the plate. The reasoning? Maybe Lewis would be better there? Why not just see what happens? It was absolutely asinine of Rocco to ask Lewis to make the change and reflects poorly on Baldelli's knowledge of his players and the game of baseball in general. Royce Lewis on aversion to 2B Last year - This Lewis won't play 2B is similar to the made up stuff about Kepler refusing to play CF. Kepler preferred not playing CF because he felt he wore down which became legend around here that where Kepler refused to play the position. There are tons and tons of examples across baseball of guys being pushed off their positions or being asked to play different positions where the players pushed back for various reasons. Few of the "pushbacks" had the kind of credibility in reasoning Lewis had last year. Mookie Betts is making $365MM guaranteed, was drafted as a 2B and played 2B, SS, CF and RF in the minors. Betts generally swapped positions during the offseason when there was time to get him practice in Spring Training, though he did suddenly make a 7 game shift to 2B (a position he'd played 100s of games) in 2021 for the Dodgers during an emergency, not because the manager thought it might make him better or just on some manager's whim. It's totally apples-oranges.

Am I the only one you follow around and harass like an angry Karen around here? I will never take you back. You and I are through. Get it through your head. Whatever obsession you have with me... it's time to let it go. (I'm assuming you're a crazy ex at this point so I'm just guessing)

How often do guys get hurt playing in the infield? Rarely. How often does moving a guy off a position to DH make them healthier? Pretty much never, except for catchers. How often do fans speculate such a change will make a guy healthier? Always. There is no significant increase in injury rate for infielders when it comes to leg issues like Royce has suffered from. If he's getting sore, sure, put him at DH in the short term if he needs to build up (but he really should be in AAA for that). That said, a full-time 3B gets about 3 chances a game to make a play so taking a setup position every time a pitcher throws a pitch is the extent of the load. Royce Lewis should either be playing in the field or traded to a different team. There is literally a 20 run difference in value between DH and 3B, positionally, over the course of a year. It's night and day.

Kody Clemens is the kind of journeyman cast off not expected to do much or provide anything more than cheap, temporary utility to a team like the Twins. As a 3rd round pick way back in 2018, Clemens' potential faded quickly once he reached the high minors, and that's reflected in Detroit holding off on calling his number until Clemens hit age 26 in 2022 where the response from Clemens was a poor 14% line drive rate, and 6% BB vs 26% K rate coinciding, naturally, with a pretty miserable .252 xwOBA. The Tigers case Clemens off in a fairly minimal value swap involving a bunch of guys looking for a change of scenery. Clemens hasn't walked much and he's been easy to strikeout throughout his high minors/MLB career. It's a bad combo unless you have elite power or line drive rates, neither of which Clemens can claim. That's not to say Clemens has no pop as his max exit velocities probably put him into a 55 grade raw power. He's been prone to ground ball-itis, and no matter how hard you hit those balls, lots of grounders generally equal low AVG and low SLG (Correa). When it comes to defense, Clemens also has about a 55 grade run tool with his sprint speeds typically in the mid/upper 27 ft/sec range which is a bit above MLB average, but his arm is 40 grade, at best as he struggles to get throws above 80mph. Clemens has also seen 415 PA in his MLB career so it's not like he's been given no chances at all. Still a small sample size considering this is his 4th season seeing action in MLB. There should be no expectations for Clemens, but there are at least some things about him which are fun to think about. First, his exit velocities are very good, his barrel rates and hard hit rates are also decent suggesting there's enough raw tools to provide some value. Clemens' plate discipline has improved a bit as well as his O-contact rates have increased a bit. In addition, there aren't any pitches which stand out as obvious weaknesses for Clemens. It's not like there's a pitch where he's a guaranteed out. (i.e. slider down and away = strike 3 for Miguel Sano). Unfortunately, Clemens still refuses to take walks, and despite historically being pretty aggressive, he's caught looking far too frequently. Clemens hasn't covered the strike zone particularly well, either, struggling with balls in the upper portion of the zone where a guy who hits a lot of ground balls should be able to do better damage. I don't think there's any reason to suspect Clemens will be serviceable as a significant player at the MLB level without a swing change, but there's at least enough of something there to suggest an adjustment could provide some value as a cheap utility guy. He's kind of the opposite of Mickey Gasper in a lot of ways while getting to the same value spot?

I know you're secretly losing sleep at night, looking up at your Jose Miranda poster on the ceiling and silently crying soooo... Hand strains generally take a long time. I'd guess no rehab assignment until at least a couple weeks, but it could be longer.

When it comes to Julien, he's got to produce, and he needs to understand that production can't come from standing at the plate like a statue watching strikes fly by. Even if Julien winds up working a walk doesn't make up for staring down a meatball he should have put in the seats. If it's stress/mental, he needs to suck it up and do his job. As harsh as that is, nobody is going to wait for him. It's sink or swim when your production is out in the open for everybody to see.

Royce Lewis is hitting .174/.167/.217 in AAA in 24 PA while sitting in the hotel watching every game get rained out. Not sure how that benefits his conditioning or shows he's ready.

Great pitching vs. great results. Right now, the Twins starters are absolutely getting great results, but there is a substantial luck factor in play. Twins starting pitchers over the past 2 weeks? ERA = 2.34 = #1 in MLB xFIP = 3.89 = #12 in MLB It's critical to win games when the starting pitchers are getting results like this because regression says there's a 2 week stint in the future where the same quality 3.89 xFIP sees an ERA of 5.44. That aside... I don't see any similarities in roster construction between the Guardians and the Twins. The Guardians are younger and way cheaper. Their entire roster is built on the back of pre-arb guys they developed, and were even taught baseballs are for catching and throwing to other players, not kicking around the field like soccer or throwing past people like water polo. The Guardians' bigger contracts are way smaller than the Twins. The Guardians don't hoard their arb-eligible talent because they're too scared to let their young guys play. The Guardians play sound defense because it's easy to incorporate fundamentals and principles. It might not be as valuable as a good bat, but again, it's low-hanging fruit. The Guardians build their rotation on young guys because they can tolerate one struggling starter getting experience as Cleveland knows they can trade those players while they're still young and maximize value. The Guardians don't wait until their prospects burn their options in the minors as "depth" behind low-ceiling pickups before getting them experience to find out how good they are, and there's no room for Pablo Lopez's contract in Cleveland. The Guardians' only significant veteran contract in the rotation is for their 26 year old ace they developed in house from the 2021 draft and pitched near 2 full seasons with ERA's of 2.98 and 3.47 (back to back, both better than any Twins SP has produced in a TC cap). Cleveland locked Bibee up almost immediately when he was still pre-arb. How are those 2021 Twins draft picks doing? Well, the first 5 picks are no longer in our organization as we ditched all of them and got one useful player back in all the trades, but Christian MacLeod is looking fairly decent in AA... Speaking of developing pitching. Since Falvey's start with the Twins, the Guardians have drafted 15 pitchers in the top 3 rounds including 6 - 1st rounders. Falvey? 7 pitchers in the top 3 rounds, and only 2 - 1st rounders. That's because Falvey is smarter than everybody else in baseball and he knows all you have to do is grab an 11th rounder, teach him to throw 8mph faster and they'll become studs for sure! Teams like the Rays and Guardians understand young, team controlled, high quality starters are the most valuable pieces in baseball so the Rays and Guardians load up early in the draft, knowing they can acquire what they need or rebuild from the surplus value leftover after trading their young pitching talent (before they hit age 30, unlike Falvey's Twins). The Guardians and Rays are willing to accept a terrible season or two if it means they get to the World Series every decade. The Guardians also don't trade away their comp picks to shuttle off a couple million for a veteran starter who can't get it done anymore like Falvey did with Phil Hughes because draft picks are the life-blood of small/medium sized organizations. Of course, it's worth noting the Guardian aces who've won Cy Youngs and that kinda stuff can't compete against a generational talent like Bailey Ober if I am to believe some posters around here. C - a25 (p-arb) vs. a28 (arb1/$5MM) 1B - a39 (1y/$12MM) vs. a30 (1y/$1MM) 2B - a25 (p-arb) vs. a28 (arb3/$6MM) SS - a24 (p-arb) vs. a30 (6-10y/$200-285MM) 3B - a32 (7y/$141MM) vs. a26 (arb1/$2MM) LF - a27 (arb1/$4MM) vs. a31 (1y/$6MM) CF - a23 (p-arb) vs. a31 (7y/$105MM) RF - a23 (p-arb) vs. a27 (p-arb) DH - a24 (p-arb) vs. a28 (arb1/$2MM) SP1 - a26 (5y/$48MM) vs. a29 (4yr/$73.5MM) SP2 - a33 (arb1/$2MM) vs. a29 (arb1/$3MM) SP3 - a25 (p-arb) vs. a29 (arb1/$4MM) SP4 - a26 (p-arb) vs. a29 (3y/$13MM) SP5 - a26 (p-arb) vs. a24 (p-arb) RP1 - a27 (arb2/$4MM) vs. a27 (arb1/$4MM) RP2 - a26 (p-arb) vs. a30 (arb1/$2MM) RP3 - a32 (1y/$4.5MM) vs. a35 (1y/$3MM) The Guardians went to the World Series the year Falvey was hired and have followed it up with 5 more playoff appearances and 9 playoff wins while advancing 2x. Maybe they win playoff games because they're a good team who makes the playoffs, not a mediocre team playing in the worst division baseball has ever seen like how the Twins make it? After all, the Guardians have won 90 games FIVE TIMES since Falvey joined the Twins and the Twins have accomplished that just ONCE, in 2019 when almost the entire roster was composed of players from the previous regime. These types of articles do a disservice to the quality systems in place in successful organizations like Cleveland. If it's not clear to people the Twins front office, coaching staff and management does not have the solution for bringing a World Series competitive team to Minnesota yet, it never will be.

Yeah, well, I think not adjusting WAR for innings pitched is intentionally manipulative. Top 100? Is that what makes stud pitchers? Where are the Cy Youngs for Jordan Balazovic and Josh Winder? OHHHHH THERE AREN'T ANY. Lets give all our guys participation trophies. That's what's important in the Also Ran league. Also, there's no chance in hell I'm using bWAR for a pitcher in the modern era. Their current methodology is total junk. I'm not really a fan of fWAR's "what should have happened" stuff, but at least I can back into it to make sense.

Jenkins is out until at least the end of May. Continuing ankle soreness. He got a cortisone shot a couple days ago.

Gen Alpha apparently hates Ohio. Ohio skibidi toilet, etc. Whatever. I agree with them after this insane rainout series. Guess it gives Royce Lewis a couple extra days to rest without him trying to overdo it. Scary about Dasan Hill. Calling his start to the season impressive is a major understatement. The quick glance coverage of the MiLB action is awesome!

The more I think about it, the more it would have been fun for the Twins to start Dobnak for this game. Dobber vs. Dobber on the mound.

It was a bit cathartic. You compared Falvey's Twins system to the success they had in Cleveland. They're not comparable. #4-5 pitchers grow on trees in the offseason.

Twins career, starts 5.0+ innings, ERA 3.99 or less. Bundy, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Lopez, SWR, Festa, Matthews 61% 57% 54% 52% 45% <-- Dylan Bundy 44% 38% 33%

I don't think anybody has worked harder or been more successful in changing their repertoire than Joe Ryan. He pushes out major changes to his arsenal every year, and the changes are usually a little better than what he had before, but every year, it seems like the scouting reports catch up to the changes by mid season. 1st Half vs. 2nd Half ERA 2022 - 2.99 vs. 4.14 2023 - 3.70 vs. 6.09 2024 - 3.21 vs. 4.88

Twins have some of the lowest ticket prices in MLB. It's not the cost. It's the product (game day experience).

Pardon me if I'm not on the one back end starter developed in the past 8 years is a real accomplishment train. Bailey Ober, a #4 starter looking out over the precipice of sustainability. End of the story. That's all the established rotation success the front office has in draft/development across Falvey's entire tenure. SWR? We traded the best pitcher drafted/developed by the Twins since Brad Radke to get him, but SWR was already in AA 4 years ago. Joe Ryan? We got him MLB-ready. The only ace caliber pitcher we've had is Sonny Gray, who we acquired for our #1 draft pick, and then we let walk after winning our first playoff game in 20 years. Want to compare to Cleveland and what they put into the rotation? Trevor Bauer (Cy Young). Shane Bieber (Cy Young), Corey Kluber (2x Cy Young), Tanner Bibee (future Cy?). Now, Cleveland didn't draft/develop all these guys, but they all got established in Cleveland. Okay, Joe Ryan dark horse Cy Young can be compared here, then. Yeah, that Joe Ryan with his 3.1 fWAR career high. About 1/2 what a Cy Young winner actually produces. Festa? Yeah, he looks like he might pan out as a back end guy. Matthews? He got clobbered in his only MLB experience and he's getting smoked again in AAA. Matthews has okay stuff, and the velo helps his stuff play up. Sounds an awful lot like Louis Varland, eh? It's great to look at starting pitching prospects and exclaim how amazing they're going to be in a year or two. It's tradition here at TD. All the Twins mediocre ceiling starters are a guaranteed Cy Young waiting to happen. Jhoan Duran <-- bullpen Brusdar Graterol <-- bullpen, traded Cade Povich <-- traded Chase Petty <-- traded Tyler Wells <-- lost in rule 5, probably bullpen Kohl Stewart <-- washed out Landon Leach <-- washed out Josh Winder <-- washed out Jordan Balazovic <-- washed out Stephen Gonsalves <-- washed out Lewis Thorpe <-- washed out Fernando Romero <-- washed out Tyler Jay <-- washed out Chris Vallimont <-- washed out Blayne Enlow <-- washed out Matt Canterino <--- This guy is a perfect example. He's got 30 innings at AA like 4 years ago where he walked 6 batters per 9 innings, and the fans are still hung up on him. Cue the next group of guaranteed studs (chance of being an MLB starter) depth like Morris (5%), Lewis (1%), Culpepper (5%), Raya (1%), Adams (0%). Then, harder to quantify/further away we have Dasan Hill, Charlee Soto, and Connor Prielipp. Living the dream down there of future Cy Youngs in the making. Just like every other MLB team fan base, except those fan bases have probably all been more successful than the Twins, who were better at drafting/developing pitching under Terry Ryan than Derek Falvey.

Clemens, Keirsey, Funderburk, Adams, Camargo, Bride... it's not hard to find some low hanging fruit on the team.

Sure. Might be as many as 13 games. You're right.

A rebuild? As it stands, this team has under a 10% chance for winning the division right now and we're setting records for poor attendance. The farm has a bunch of talent which is either scouted as mediocre or injured absolutely just all. the. time. Like all the time. Does it matter if the Twins lose 90 games or 95? They're already bad, and if this continues to the deadline, just how much worse is the team if they "rebuild?" What positions are we confident will deliver 3+ WAR this season? Maybe Buxton depending on how much time he spends on the IL? In the rotation, probably Lopez? Ryan and Ober combined have done it once in their careers. The term "rebuild" gets tossed around here like somebody yelling "shark!!! shark!!!!" at a popular children's beach in Florida trying to scare the crap out of people whenever some fan favorite (read: any player with more than 1 successful year on the team) has their name mentioned as a potential trade chip to fix this broken franchise. This Twins team looks very much like a team that needs a rebuild, and the only surplus value the Twins look to have is in the pitching staff.

Alcala had a 3.24 ERA last year, dude. In his only other full season, he was also solid. He's got 12 appearances this year. While he's not getting results, it's pretty clear his "stuff" isn't the issue. Obviously struggling with location, but unlike a guy like Varland, Alcala doesn't give up a ton of hard contact and exit velocities.

Fair vs. not fair is the problem. Society has changed a lot in terms of what is and is not acceptable. A lot. Look no further than Tommy Lasorda and how his attitude and style was accepted by the players and the league in his final years. In the 80s and 90s, managers could still get away with getting physical with players during angry disputes.

Tom Kelly's management style from the 80s and 90s would never work today so he'd really have to change his approach and communication style with the players who he famously pretty much hazed if he didn't like somebody. It seems like he regrets being so harsh when you read his retrospectives. Attitudes and communication styles have changed a lot since the 1990s in general People change along with them. https://www.twincities.com/2012/09/05/former-twins-manager-tom-kelly-i-took-the-game-of-baseball-very-personal/ Kelly would also have to change his approach to the game and coaching in general or the Front Office would can him. https://shamasportsheadliners.com/kelly-iffy-on-managing-in-2018-baseball/