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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Luke Keaschall Looks totally legit at the MLB level from a production and tools standpoint.Walker Jenkins Injury prone, excellent hit tool, average power w/o room to fill out, corner OFConnor Prielipp Elite stuff, injury risk, control/command issues. Bullpen risk, but #1 starter potential.Charlee Soto Looks dominant in A+ already, multiple potential plus pitches, seems durable.Dasan Hill 4 pitch lefty, dominant out of the gate A-ball a19. Sky's the limit. Building a floor.Kyle DeBarge Hit/Power tools look good at A+, defensive results at SS dramatically improved.Kaelen Culpepper Hit tool great at the plate, limited power. Better at SS than expected. Could advance fast.Emmanuel Rodriguez Power tool not playing against polished pitchers. Injury prone. High risk.Marco Raya Good stuff, weak command, likely bullpen arm due to durability concerns.Andrew Morris High velo, but can't miss bats. Back end rotation ceiling, probable BP.Carson McCusker Huge power, but questionable contact/hit tool. Defensive liability in corner OF.Brandon Winokur All the athleticism, but bat may not play.Payton Eeles Great story and good hit tool. Below average power. Questions defensively. Bottom line, he was clearly overlooked due to size. Scouting reports continue to be questionably biased.Cory Lewis Middle relief ceiling.Gabriel Gonzalez Bat keeps improving, but limited overall ceiling/athleticism. Feels a bit like later career Eddie Rosario.Ricardo Olivar Twins desperate for catching, hampering progress with OF. No power, all hit tool in AA Rayne Doncon Good, not great tools across the board.CJ Culpepper No plus pitches so far, but looks like potentially a back end rotation piece.Eduardo Beltre Huge ceiling, but DSL numbers are sketchy to project.Daiber De Los Santos Billed as premium SS defense with great tools. Super young, but could pan out.
  2. bean5302
    He wanted to follow the trend of former Twins pitcher debuts after seeing Gibson's performance at Yankee Stadium.
  3. bean5302
    As I recall, there were a couple arguments somebody made about Julien leading off. Julien does see a lot of pitches so he can provide a lot of insight and data for other guys, but he's not swinging at the ones he should swing at and he is swinging at the ones he shouldn't. Personally, I think it's mental stress from the pressure to produce or be demoted fast, like he was last year. There's almost a desperation in his approach. Julien hasn't been great over the past 10-15 games, but he has been adequate despite his shortcomings. Gasper is worse as a lead off guy by any reasonable strategy one can imagine, I think.
  4. bean5302
    New owners: Make decisions based on fan experience and data rather than what your 30 year entrenched management or nephew thinks.
  5. bean5302
    Left him off my top 20 prospects partially due to how he was performing this year.
  6. bean5302
    Every pitcher gives up hard contact. Just not on every single ball they throw. I get the impression you're angry at the metric or phrases related to them "hard contact" or "exit velocity." Let me put it an old fashioned way. Pretty much every ball Paddack threw came rocketing back past him like a hypersonic missile. He just got really lucky the balls flew directly at players in the field.
  7. bean5302
    I've never been a fan of the "young for the level" stuff. Virtually every good prospect plays at a level where they're significantly younger than the competition. It's why prospects cease to be "prospects" at age 25. If the player had the talent and the drive to be successful at MLB, they'd almost certainly already have been called up by age 25. Experience can improve results a lot through polish, but it doesn't improve talent.
  8. bean5302
    Honestly, I think Julien could do with a change of scenery, but he could also do with a mental shift. It feels like he's pressing hard with the memory of last year's sudden demotion after being considered a core piece of the Twins 2 weeks earlier. He obviously knows Royce is just a few days away, and we're seeing a lot of the same stuff we saw last year when Julien got ice cold.
  9. bean5302
    THIS. Paddack got the results, but the problem is he looked like Greg Maddux pranking Kris Bryant out there. Every hit, Greg doesn't even look back "Warning track?" Paddack only managed 2 strike outs in 5 innings and he had an average 95.0mph exit velocity. Paddack wasn't fooling anybody at all. There was literally a 90% contact rate on balls outside the zone. It was like a home run derby out there when the batter gets out of the groove. Sending him back out to the mound would have been playing with fire in a very close, important game.
  10. bean5302
    Nice start by Paddack. Lots of balls in play, but managed to get excellent results. The Twins were up against good pitching tonight and the lineup struggled apart from France having a night he really needed. Julien looked pretty rough tonight. He's been more or less holding his own in production recently, but way, way too many at bats serving as a shoulder bat rack. 5 pitch strikeout not swinging at a single pitch in his 2nd at bat. The he swings at back to back pitches in/near the dirt after seeing the same pitch in the same target zone on the first pitch? It's the same pitch... it's not moving 12" more. I think Julien's feeling the pressure big time.
  11. bean5302
    Former top pick Chase Petty is getting his call up for the Reds. He'd been working on his pitches to increase his K rate starting last year. So far in 2025, it's started paying off. He's been averaging 96mph on his sinker this year. He's had some loud contact against him, and he's walked a few more guys to get to his 10.57 K/9 so far in AAA this year. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/04/reds-to-promote-chase-petty.html
  12. bean5302
    Gave up 5 home runs in 2.0 innings. He might have needed a little more tuning, LOL
  13. bean5302
    Keaschall had plenty of time to get out of the way, it was a pretty slow pitch, and it was a very unlucky hit on his back arm. Keaschall does not really crowd the plate relative to a lot of other players. For qualified batters 10% - 24.3" 25% - 26.5" Luke Keaschall - 26.7" 50% - 27.9" 75% - 29.8" 90% - 31.1" Keaschall may need to get a better action to get out of the way of the errant inside pitch. I also wouldn't be opposed to making HBP = 2 bases, but if we do that, batters who don't try to get out of the way should be automatically out as well.
  14. bean5302
    Not opposed to signing Canterino to a 2 year MiLB deal at all. If nothing else, it's a good place for Canterino to get top notch care and rehab while he recovers. I don't expect him to pitch competitively before the end of next year, but if he looks good, in September, I could see Canterino getting a shot in the 'pen in 2027.
  15. bean5302
    We're dealing with some really small sample sizes right now, but Lee's right handed swing is showing much faster than last year. Lee was 2024 RHB - 65 swings, 70.1mph 2025 RHB - 16 swings, 73.0mph 2024 LHB - 214 swings, 69.1mph 2025 LHB - 54 swings, 69.6mph Now, when you look at the chart, there's a pretty fair potential it's just a data point issue. Most of Lee's swings fall well under the dashed line suggesting there probably hasn't been a change in swing speed. Lee's been on fire lately in terms of hard hit and barrel rates with elite results despite below average bat speed. I don't think the power is sustainable, but Lee may be demonstrating more of his potential hit tool by laying off bad pitches this year. Last year, Lee's O-swing was a poor 36.9% while this year it's way down at only 24.4% (league average about 28%). He's swinging at pitches in the zone more as well up from 67.5% to 72.0%. This matters for a couple reasons. He's taking a strike looking much less, and he's been able to get ahead in the count a lot more so he's seeing better pitches to hit. If we look at the zones, Lee is doing a lot of damage in weird locations (outside the zone), and I just don't think it's sustainable without an improvement in results in the zone. That said, confidence can be a huge boost to a player. Royce Lewis was getting a lot of high end results he didn't really earn in his rookie season, but as the season went on a bit, his underlying performance kept improving a lot to the point where he was earning every bit of what he was producing. Here's hoping Brooks Lee will be able to build confidence off his results and improve his approach at the plate to drive results as the season progresses.
  16. bean5302
    Putting aside the coulda, woulda, shoulda stats to focus on real results, and looking at starters with 70+ innings (156 in 2024). 2024 ERA, Career ERA+ Pablo Lopez = 87th, 109 Joe Ryan = 55th, 107 Bailey Ober = 81st, 110 When it comes to comparing them to their peers in terms of how often they go out and give the Twins a quality start or even better yet, a start of 5.0+ innings with an ERA of 3.99 or better, Lopez is the best of the 3, though he falls into that #2 range historically. He wasn't good last year, and he's approaching 30 where things typically start a decline. We'll have to watch this year to see if he can bounce back from what was a rough season.
  17. bean5302
    Literally could have gotten Club Level seats at $23 including fees on SeatGeek on a beautiful day when I looked on the 22nd. It was sunny and like 65*. $60-75/ea for the poor season ticket holder who owned them.
  18. bean5302
    Are you advocating for the trade because you think he could bring a real haul back based on his league minimum salary, and more than 5 years of team control remaining? For sure, that's an enormous value, but it's also an enormous loss with limited control remaining over almost the entire current rotation. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober aren't better than #3's and Lopez is probably slipping from his #2 status. Festa's ceiling is probably as good as any of them.
  19. bean5302
    The weather was way better this year. Fans are apathetic like they haven't been since pre-contraction. We're sick of the Pohlads. We're sick of empty stadiums. We're sick of poor play. We're sick of watching a manager fumble the games away. We're sick of a front office obsessed with every cheap re-tread shiny object they see. We're sick of terrible marketing. We're sick of a team that caters to 4 year olds. We're sick of a team that distances the fans from the product. We're sick of paying for season tickets that are available at 1/2 to 1/3 face. We're sick of Delaware North. We're sick of $25 parking. We're sick of it all.
  20. bean5302
    Really great start by Joe Ryan! Those are the kinds of starts which give credibility to the overzealous "dark-horse Cy Young" folks. Though I don't believe Ryan will have a lot of those, the Twins need a couple guys to step up and deliver outstanding performances now. It's great seeing a 3 hit performance, and even an extra base for Correa, and a couple more hits for Larnach. With Buxton on a tear lately, Correa's bat coming around is still critical for the team this year. The Twins managing to win some games with small ball, and without accidentally kicking balls around the field is nice.
  21. bean5302
    Radke remains one of the most overlooked Twins. People do not realize how elite he was, and I believe Radke's efforts to get Carl Pohlad to spend money and buy into the team was a major reason the Twins weren't contracted. They overlook him being #2 in Twins pitching bWAR all time just behind Blyleven, far above guys like Santana and Kaat.
  22. bean5302
    Everybody seems pretty bullish on Canterino. He's never pitched above AA, and he owned a 4.74 xFIP there because he was walking 15% of batters (6 BB/9), and he faced and had a 60% fly ball rate. That was 3 years ago. Since then, he's had UCL surgery and now a labrum surgery. UCL recovery rates are good. Labrum surgery recovery rates are much less successful. There isn't a guarantee Canterino returns to whatever form he had before the shoulder surgery, which may have been diminished from what he was 3 years ago before the TJ. Provided he has no setbacks, Canterino will not be ready to pitch from a mound again until May-ish of 2026. He won't be ready to join competitive pitching until the second half of next year. Canterino will be 28-1/2 years old at that point. In my opinion, releasing him is a logical decision even if it doesn't feel good. I could see the Twins signing Canterino to a MiLB contract mid next season if he's throwing well at that point.
  23. bean5302
    I came into this year not bullish on SWR at all. I didn't expect he'd be able to maintain his spot in the rotation. His Stuff+ ranks pretty poorly, but he's getting results right now. Despite the results, it's clear Baldelli has no trust in Sim as he reaches for the hook quick so I'd say the Twins have the same back end rotation opinion of SWR. The Twins aren't going to demote SWR so long as he keeps getting results. The fact Festa is still working on a pitch contributes to why he was sent back down to AAA, regardless of whether or not he pitched better than SWR.
  24. bean5302
    In parenthesis is the number of starts that pitcher made to demonstrate how the Twins' rank in "average innings" is a poor data point. John McMoneybags moves to Warba, MN. John McMoneybags made $1 billion dollars of income last year. The mean household income in Warba, MN becomes $5.5MM. You're saying people in Warba, MN are extremely well off. In fact, probably the highest income earners in the world! Meanwhile, the median household income is $10,000. Baldelli pulled pitchers early with regularity. That's his M.O. Relievers being asked to pitch more frequently and for more innings than typical leads to fatigue and a reduction in performance. The Twins have collapsed late season several times under Baldelli. The bullpen has been below average 3 consecutive years in the 2nd half.
  25. bean5302
    The "shambling remains of Brad Radke" would be our ace today. His 2006 results were as good or better than Lopez, Ober or Ryan last year. 1 Cy Young, 1 All Star and RoY Candidate who was even better, and a near HoF worthy guy in the rotation. Add in 1 MVP and another MVP candidate who was even better, along with the best closer in all of baseball. Yeah, seems like 2006 is right on par with this year, haha. Per Fangraphs, the Twins sit at 14.5% to win the division (7:1) and 36.6% to make the playoffs (3:1). The chances aren't great, but the team hasn't been eliminated or anything. It helps the Twins are 11-16, not 9-16 at this point, and the AL Central is much more pedestrian this year than expected, and there being just a couple elite teams in the AL vs a whole lot of mediocre ones so far. The Guardians are turning in yet another lucky season which makes you question whether or not it's luck at all or a new strategy metrics don't yet evaluate properly.
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