bean5302

He's been DFA'd. If he clears waivers (I'd be fairly surprised if he did), the Twins will offer him back to the Phillies.

If the focus on the 12 innings he pitched in relief in 2023, and everything else gets ignored, I can see why people would have high ceiling optimism. That said, if you're going to create a narrative like the "one inning, let it fly" and "attention span" ideas, at least check his game logs. Only 3 of his 7 relief appearances in 2023 were limited to 1.0 innings or less, and Varland had similar success in the 1.2+ inning appearances. In 2024 only 3 of his 9 relief appearances were 1.0 inning without some sort of boost in performance from what I see. Varland's results out of the 'pen were bad in 2024, but his metrics and pitch qualities suggest he could be a 3.50-4.00 ERA reliever to me.

Hendriks is a very different pitcher than Varland, and Hendiks' transition to reliever resulted in a much more dramatic change. Hendriks picked up 4mph going from averaging 91.5mph to 95.5mph in his first year as a reliever. His velocity peaked at over 97.5mph meaning a total of 6mph improvement. Varland only goes up 1-2mph since he was already throwing hard. In terms of stuff, Hendriks has developed 2 plus pitches, he's more like Griffin Jax. Varland probably has no plus pitches. The curve might work out for him as a good plus pitch, but he rarely threw it last year. Varland's other offerings are pretty average. I expect Varland to be a mediocre reliever with stuff that doesn't move well so it gets barreled up, and velo which isn't overpowering relative to the average reliever. Varland's results as a reliever thus far have not been inspiring.

Overstretching is one of the biggest contributors to injury.

That's essentially what I call QS2. 5.0+ innings, ERA of 3.99 or less. The reason is the likelihood of winning a game. For each run your pitchers allow, the chances of winning a game drop dramatically. Here are the winning percentages if the Twins pitchers allowed <x> number of runs, assuming ties are 50/50 win/loss. Notice after allowing more than 1 run, it's a pretty linear decline in winning percentage for every run allowed. 0 = .969 (157-5) 1 = .895 (145-17) -.074 2 = .772 (125-37) -.123 3 = .623 (102-60) -.142 4 = .500 (81-81) -.129 5 = .377 (61-101) -.123 6 = .265 (43-119) -.111 This is why 6.0 Innings and allowing 3 Runs is not really a quality start IMHO. You leave your bullpen in a situation where they need to throw 3 scoreless innings (very difficult) because if they allow another run, you're not likely to win the game. A pitcher who goes 6.0 innings and allows 3 ER (4.50 ERA) didn't give their team a good chance at a playoff record. 6.0 IP and 3 ER has a much lower chance of victory than 5.0 IP and 2 ER because the bullpen can cough up a run in the latter case and still have a great chance at winning.

I'd imagine SS depth with Lee/Lewis/Eeles out is probably: Correa -> Castro -> Holland I suppose it's possible we could see Martin at SS.

Almost as thorough as my example :)

It's funny to me to watch the shift in opinion on TD for Gasper. The lamentation Gasper might somehow see a plate appearance from a couple months ago to the thoughts Gasper is a good addition to the 26 man and that he will become some sort of fan favorite. What I will say is Gasper is doing exactly what he needs to show his bat might play at the MLB level, and that's swing at more pitches. His overall swing rate is at 41.4% this spring. Still very low, but essentially the highest of his career. Gasper will not be able to be as passive as he's historically been at the MLB level because MLB pitchers know how to throw strikes which aren't mistakes. Players will not be successful waiting exclusively for meatballs like they can feast on through the low minors, and have some success even through AAA. Gasper's first pitch strike rate is only 40.5% right now, but it's not going to stay that way. Since Gasper is starting 60% of his plate appearances ahead it in count 1-0, it's no surprise his BB rate and K rate are so impressive this spring. His batted ball profile this spring is mediocre line drive rate, lots and lots of grounders, and some fly balls with moderate pop. He'll need to reduce the grounders in exchange for his historically higher line drives to have continued success. If he's able to adapt to MLB pitching and reach his potential at the plate, Gasper's batted ball profile probably falls somewhere between Jose Miranda and Edouard Julien, but I'd be surprised if Gasper was ever a true plus value bat. Whether or not Gasper could be a regular depends on his defense and position.

Check out hockeywilderness.com sometime, LOL. It's endless contradictions. On Monday morning the Wild are hopeless, doomed for all eternity, the team's strategy is flawed, the GM needs to be fired, and the owner should sell the team. On Monday night bit player a had a good game so the Wild are now serious threats for the Stanley Cup thanks to the super stud GM acquiring bit player A. At least I don't have to read how a historically dirty Twins player tried to kill another player on the ice so they've got an unfair 8 game suspension! Oh the humanity!

Isn't it a tough job following me around the forums like a lost puppy downvoting and taunting me on everything I post like a sociopathic 6yr old? At least I can rest easy knowing some things never change, haha. I hope you know you've been ignored for months so the only time I see your posts is when I forget to log in, lol. Taunt away!

I agree with the universal sentiment here. #17 overall vs. #3 is a meaningless distinction. Walker Jenkins is universally considered an elite prospect with the ceiling of a superstar player by scouts. In my analysis of similar prospects, Jenkins falls into the 2nd tier of players. (High school draft picks ranked in the top 10 for MLB, in A+ or above by age 19). The top tier were all star players. The second tier had guys like Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, and Carlos Correa, but also 50% of guys who washed out at the MLB level (everybody made MLB). I'm lower on Jenkins than probably anybody on TD, and certainly lower than scouts as I think he'll wind up being more Max Kepler than a superstar, but Max Kepler is one of the top 30 Twins position players in career WAR to ever wear the jersey. Huge score for any draft pick.

I suppose it depends on what a "core" player is considered. My definition for core wouldn't probably include guys who had a ceiling under 2.5 WAR so a guy like Larnach doesn't need to be in the conversation. Even with his bat being highly shielded from lefties, Larnach managed only 1.5 fWAR in 400 plate appearances. The "above average" bat is even a little in doubt as he'd never posted a wRC+ above 101 prior to last year. If that's "core" the team is weak. Removing Lewis from core, but keeping Buxton as part of the core makes no sense to me, either. Buxton was horrible in 2023, generating only 0.6 fWAR with a wRC+ 97 season almost exclusively at DH. Buxton's just as injury prone as Lewis. If core just means a player who is meeting expectations, and you expect more from Lewis... I guess.

Yeah, the 2024 Guardians make no sense on paper. Projections like the Guardians to win 84ish games this year. I wasn't impressed with the Guardians rotation prior to last year and I'm less impressed with it this year. I do think Bieber is on track for a June/July return to the mound, but I'm not convinced he'll be the weapon he once was. Now entering his age 30 season, Bieber saw a decline in velo from 94.3mph in his age 25 season of 2020 down 3mph to 91.5mph from 2022-2023 finishing at age 28. A brief velo spike back to 92.5 at age 29 in 2024 was followed by a torn UCL. The Guardians need Bieber to return to elite form. If he does and he's back in June, the team might be a lot more of a danger. They've got what looks to be an elite 1-2 punch in the bullpen with Smith and Clase, and then a bunch of projected mediocre to riff-raff arms, though a few of those guys got excellent results despite having FIPs which suggested they were just going to be adequate. Forecasting so much regression is questionable. Projection models don't like the exceptionally low BABIP generated by many of the Guardians relievers to be sustainable. Have to see on that. When it comes to the bats, their RISP results are not going to return this year. It's not to say the Guardians are going to have a "bad" lineup, just that I don't expect them to be good, either. Then there is the Pythagorean results which helped the Guardians win a ton of games they really shouldn't have overall, beyond things like BABIP and RISP luck.

@Cody Pirkl swinging strike rates not whiff rate. 18.1-21.4% is ultra elite. Last year, only 7 of 254 relievers with 30+ innings managed a swinging strike rate of 18.0% or higher. None was over Josh Hader's 20.5%.

Brock Stewart underwent shoulder surgery last year and he has precious little track record as the pitcher he is now, throwing 97 instead of 93. One thing which has been consistent is he's always hurt. I think he's supposed to start throwing again in the next couple days. Tier 1 - Duran, Jax. Tier 2 - Stewart, Alcala Tier 3 - Sands, Coulombe, Topa Tier 4 - Varland, Tonkin, everybody else It should be a very good bullpen. Tonkin won't be pitching for the Twins for the first couple weeks at least. Topa and Stewart are both constantly injured. I don't really care too much about who is 7th or 8th in the bullpen. They shouldn't be seeing much action where the game is actually in doubt.

I agree with @chpettit19. Duran's velocity is elite at 100mph or 102mph. Last year looked like it was luck fueled as his FIP was better than his mega velo 2023. 2022 = 100.9, 2.52 FIP 2023 = 101.8, 3.21 FIP 2024 = 100.4, 2.85 FIP <-- Duran can't throw hard anymore, he's cooked, what's wrong???? Duran has pitched 6.1 innings this year in spring training. He's publicly stated he's not trying to throw max velo right now. 3/12 vs. Boston. 21.4% swinging strike rate. 1.0 IP, 2Ks. 3/15 vs. Atlanta. 18.2% swinging strike rate. 1.0 IP, 0Ks. 3/18 vs. Detroit. 0.0% swinging strike rate. 0.1 IP, 0Ks, 3R 2ER. <--- His swinging strike rate in ST is bad! The last batter fouled off 6 pitches and saw 11 of the 24 pitches Duran threw. Fastball velo ranged from 98.1mph to 99.7mph.

This is fair. I've already 80% closed the book on what he can be based on what I've seen, and you're more optimistic there's more in the tank. There are fair reasons to suspect there's more to Brooks Lee than what he's shown. The shoulder and back could have physically hampered him more than we know. Maybe Lee's arm strength was sapped from the shoulder and that impacted not only his throwing but his swing speed/max exit velo? That would essentially make a huge impact on Lee's projectability.

Your points: You: Low leverage Relievers don't exist because players might be used in ways which are not ideal. Me: Christian Vazquez was used in a way which was not ideal. He's still a catcher. All MLB players will be used in roles/situations where a team would rather not use them. It doesn't change the role the player is expected to play. You: Games are going to be won or lost because a sub-par reliever who is not suited to pitching high leverage scenarios is on the mound. Me: I literally just made the Jay Jackson example in a different post. This is how Jay Jackson started his year last year. 3/31 vs. KCR - Entered game bottom of the 8th, Score 11-0, chance of the Twins win 100.0% 4/2 vs. MIL - Entered game bottom of the 7th, score 3-2, chance of the Twins win 79.1% 4/6 vs. CLE - Entered game top of the 9th, score 1-3, chance of the Guardians win 92.9% 4/8 vs. LAD - Entered game top of the 7th, score 2-2, chance of the Twins win 50.0%* 4/12 vs. DET - Entered game bottom of the 8th, score 7-0, chance of Twins win 99.9% 4/13 vs. DET - Entered game bottom of the 12th, score 4-11, chance of Tigers win 99.7% 4/16 vs. BAL - Entered game bottom of the 7th, score 9-2, chance of Twins win 99.7% 4/21 vs. DET - Entered game top of the 7th, score 0-4, chance of Tigers win 94.6% 4/23 vs. CHW - Entered game runners on top of the 8th, score 2-3, chance of White Sox win 81.6%** 4/27 vs. CAL - Entered game bottom of the 8th, score 5-14, chance of Angels winning 99.9% 4/30 vs. CHW - Entered game bottom of the 7th, score 4-3, chance of Twins winning 79.2% 5/5 vs. BOS - Entered game runners on top of 8th, score 1-7, chance of Red Sox winning 99.3% *Jay Jackson took the loss. **Jay Jackson earned the win. Everything else, Jay Jackson had no impact, and honestly had little to no chance of making an impact. Jackson was used in 1 high leverage scenario for his first month and a half on the team which was an appearance vs. the meat of the Dodgers lineup in a tie game in the 6th inning. What are the chances any reliever gets out of that safely? His next 4 appearances over 2 weeks and 3 series' didn't have a single game which wasn't already totally decided before he entered. You're factually proven wrong here. This is a specific example from the Twins last year. Over his first month and a half on the team, Jackson entered only 3 additional appearances where the game wasn't already over, but there still wasn't even a 25% chance of a game outcome change statistically. Jackson got the "win" in one of them. Jay Jackson being on the mound vs. an elite reliever likely made no difference for over a month.

You don't even have a leg to stand on. Christian Vazquez clearly is not a catcher by your definition of having no low leverage relievers. Vazquez DH'd in 3 games.

What you just described was a backup utility player. Adequate to good defender, below average bat. Doesn't take walks. Doesn't get on base. Doesn't hit for power (couldn't). Is one of the slowest players in MLB, has a weak arm. Your position is all hype/hope and no current reality. Lee was not a good fielder last year. I watched him. Balls dropped in short outfield spots because Lee was simply too slow to chase them down. He didn't make throws he needed to make at the MLB level. He graded out below average at SS in all 3 advanced metrics. DRS -1, UZR/150 -3.4, OAA -2 in just 208 innings. UZR/150 at 2B was -13.3. The sample sizes are just too small to be credible on paper, and the metrics were generous compared to what I saw in person. Lee is not an acceptable starter at SS and he never will be. He might be able to eek out a subpar performance at 2B... maybe, but I doubt it with his speed. He might be able to handle 3rd as he has exactly the same physical tools as Jose Miranda but better instincts. Now time for the reality bomb with real numbers, not hype. Sprint speed fastest to slowest: Willi Castro 27.9, Mickey Gasper 27.0, Carlos Correa 26.8, Eduard Julien 26.7, Royce Lewis 26.6, Jose Miranda 25.9, Carlos Santana 25.9, Brooks Lee 25.6. Yep. Brooks Lee was a slower runner than Carlos Santana. Fact, Brooks Lee was among the slowest 12% of players in all of MLB and speed is important for 2B/SS/OF. He's a statute. How about when he throws the ball? Max throwing speed last year. Carlos Correa 94.1, Royce Lewis 85.5, Jose Miranda 83.2, Brooks Lee 83.1, Eddie Julien 83.0. Now do you get it? Julien is faster than Lee, and Julien has the same (or better) arm. You see, Brooks Lee's fastest throws were coming from the far side of the infield which favors higher velocities from being able to setup while 2B needs to make quicker throws because velo doesn't matter as much due to the distance. The 0.1mph advantage Lee has is likely attributable to the fact Lee had more incentive to set before throwing. Brooks Lee = Matt Tolbert = Levi Michael. That's my opinion based on his stats and watching him play. Maybe if Lee committed to improving his athleticism, sprint speed, range, arm, or built strength to hit the ball harder he could compensate for his bottom tier MLB athleticism, but I that'd be highly unusual.

I do think Julien could be solid. I wasn't a huge proponent of him being a stud after 2023 when a lot of hype was still supporting him. I think Julien is probably going to be a 2 WAR player. That's solid enough while he's cheap. Brooks Lee is just going to be fine as a utility infielder, but I don't think he's going to be a guy I'd want starting. I don't think Lee will get on base well enough or show enough pop to make up for his low OBP. His physical abilities will limit his value defensively. Basically, I expect Brooks Lee to be Matt Tolbert 2.0. I'm the extreme outlier here on TD it seems. I just don't buy the hype at all. Same with Walker Jenkins and Emma. I'm way lower on those guys than almost anybody else. We'll see. I could look like a total moron at the end of this year, but it'll be great for the Twins if I do.

I'm saying I believe @USAFChief is wrong, and so are you. The argument there is no such role as a low leverage reliever because a low leverage reliever will sometimes (rarely) find themselves in a high leverage situation. I've addressed this previously with the actual rate of high leverage usage for a pitcher as defined by when a pitcher enters a game under a high leverage situation comparing Jay Jackson to Jhoan Duran. It's the same argument as saying Christian Vazquez is not a catcher because he will be used as a DH or the real reason we had to get rid of Kyle Farmer is because he makes a lousy pitcher and had a 6.75 ERA last year with as many or more innings pitched than Daniel Duarte, Cole Irvin, Brent Headrick or Justin Topa. The other argument which is used is the idea low leverage doesn't exist period because low leverage can become high leverage if the reliever gives up runs. It's a strawman seeking to manipulate the definition of a low leverage reliever. A relief pitcher who is considered low leverage is defined by when a team wants to use a reliever in regard to when the reliever enters the game, not when a reliever is pitching or exits a game. Jay Jackson pitched in 20 games last year. The Twins were 6-14 in those games. He took the loss in 1 game in his first 13 appearances and 18.0 innings pitched. His average leverage index entering the game was 0.49. He had two games where the Twins called his number in a higher leverage situation. That's a low leverage reliever. Of course, Jackson took the loss in both high leverage situations, but in only one situation was Jackson responsible for the runs on 4/6 where Jackson's number was called to face the meat of the LA Dodgers lineup in the 7th inning with the score 2-2 (Betts, Ohtani, Freeman). I don't care who walks to the mound in that situation, there's a high probability it doesn't end without a run scored. On 5/10, Jackson entered the game tied 8-8 in the 7th against the Blue Jays. Jackson managed an out and had a runner on 1st/3rd before Caleb Thielbar had one of his early season meltdowns and the game BB/1B/SF/BB. There will be a whole bunch of innings pitched this year by relievers who are only on an MLB roster because of injuries, reputation or cost. There will be a bunch of relievers who pitch poorly. In fact, 25% of the more than 250 relievers with 30+ innings last year had an ERA of 4.50+. Their record? 162-169. Basically average. Is a "low leverage" reliever or basically a guy you'd rather not have pitching in high leverage situations going to significantly change outcomes compared to Michael Tonkin or this years version of Steven Okert or Ronny Henriquez? No. It's all the same.

I think what's being manipulated when it comes to weight lifting is strength training vs. body building. Right now, there is a clearly stupid trend in MLB to add mass and muscle like a body builder rather than strength training. Lifting weights as part of strength training helps stabilize joints with lean muscle helping taking up loads from tendons and ligaments, and proper techniques focus on long range of motion strength to improve range of motion which helps eliminate muscle pulls and strains. The focus is on increasing strength to spread loads without adding weight and size. Body building adds a lot of weight which increases the load on joints, tendons and ligaments while limiting the range of motion due to bulk and techniques used. It increases risk of injury. An NFL wide receiver might be 6'2" and 200lbs and run 32 ft/sec. An NFL running back might be 5'10 and 200lbs and run 30 ft/sec. An NFL linebacker might be 6'3" and 250lbs and run 27 ft/sec. <-- this is what baseball infielders are trying to be now. Bulk/Weight = slow, injury prone.

It could be, but I don't think the Dodgers will win more than 105. The Padres and Diamondbacks should be strong in that division, and the Giants are a bit of a dark horse with Justin Verlander and Robbie Ray both looking like they're potential front end rotation arms again. The hapless and embarrassing Rockies are projected even worse than the White Sox, but other than Colorado padding the win column, the Dodgers have their work cut out for them.

I don't see it. I see the TD hype machine on overdrive for a guy since day 1 of the draft without the physical tools necessary to truly be considered versatile. Scouts get excited about players, too. From day one, scouts have said Brooks Lee probably lacks the speed and athleticism to cover SS, but scouting reports were clearly higher on his arm than what the true metrics show. The power was lower than expected as well with Lee's max exit velocity suggesting he's a 40 grade power tool, and Brooks Lee hasn't shown he'll take walks which severely limits his OBP (big part of what I consider the hit tool) so his hit tool hasn't shown the plus grade, either. Lee is the far smoother fielder of the two, but Julien honestly has shown the better physical tools. I don't see either as a plus fielder anywhere on the baseball field.