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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    The Twins have messed with their point of sale systems the last 3 straight years, and they've had issues rolling each change out because staff doesn't get trained until immediately before opening day and many workers are "volunteers." The self-service market checkouts were miserable last year. They were slow, buggy and required staff to assist people on a regular basis. The bonus is I don't tip if I have to get my stuff and check myself out no matter how many staff are there to "help." So it does make things cheaper, and the staff less likely to sign up. I HATE self checkout. The last thing I want to do at a ball game is spend time figuring out how to navigate several different POS systems with different and often buggy scanning technologies and I really hate the audacity to place a default "tip" on self checkout markets. While it might track the total cost, I'm assuming you'll need it to track the total cost because of additional fees and hidden charges.
  2. bean5302
    It seems like the sticking point is a low leverage reliever who rounds out a bullpen could technically, rarely, be asked to pitch in a tight game or outside of an arbitrary definition of a purely low leverage situation. Therefore, there is no such thing as a low leverage reliever. There are no left handed specialist pitchers in a bullpen because they will be asked to pitch against right handed pitchers. There are no starters because they might be asked to pitch in relief. There are no bench players because they might be asked to start a few games a year. Jhoan Duran isn't a high leverage reliever because he might be asked to pitch in a lower leverage game. He's also not a closer and Jax isn't a set up guy because sometimes they pitch outside those roles. Carlos Correa isn't a shortstop because he was asked to DH in 1 game last year. J.D. Martinez isn't a DH because a team might have him play a game in the outfield. The argument roles don't exist because a person might be asked to do something outside of their primary role during their employment isn't realistic. Not on a baseball field or in any other job role for which I'm familiar.
  3. bean5302
    The throw velocities for Brooks Lee were recorded by Statcast. There are plenty of analytics to evaluate Brooks Lee's athleticism and in measurable physical skills, Lee is far below MLB average.
  4. bean5302
    Yes, it tells you what would probably, usually, have happened. So when 10 soft liners that would be caught 90% of the time drop in for a hit because Manny Margot is playing CF and 10 runs score as a result, FIP says that shouldn't have happened. Maybe only 5 runs should have scored according to FIP, and the pitcher shouldn't be judged on the fact Rocco Baldelli and Derek Falvey don't value defense. I like xFIP much more for relievers, myself, because an unlucky home run can wreck FIP (and ERA), but there are relievers who are just homer prone (Emilio Pagan). Just because fWAR isn't perfect doesn't mean it's not fair. Again, there are low leverage relievers and you can see a massive difference between reliever leverage indexes when they enter games. It's just a fact some relievers get used in high leverage situations on a regular basis where some relievers rarely see that scenario. Just like a screwdriver might be used as a prybar sometimes. Not "intended," but it happens. A low leverage, mop up reliever is still expected to be an MLB caliber pitcher (Michael Tonkin type). They're just not an elite arm. Nobody is advocating for an 8.00 ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA/xERA guy in the bullpen just because, and no team in baseball has a bullpen full of all elite arms. If you're evaluating relief pitchers on wins and losses, there's nothing more for us to debate.
  5. bean5302
    Lots of comments about Matt Canterino's long term, repetitive and combinations of arm issues being related to "Rice University." What really happened is Canterino's violent and off balance delivery, which created major forces on his arm, worked okay while he was in his teens, but he started developing problems as he aged. Canterino did not throw crazy innings at Rice. It's not uncommon to see innings in the 90s at colleges in the US. Rice University didn't force Canterino to pitch in summer league in 2018. Rice didn't force him to pitch an extra 25 innings for the Twins in Rookie/A-Ball in 2019. Canterino's first arm injury showed up two years after he last pitched at Rice after he had a full year off from competitive pitching (2020).
  6. bean5302
    Yes, fWAR, the single best mainstream statistic which can be used today for relievers. Yes, low leverage relievers exist on every single team in MLB. I thought I just addressed that by showing the Guardians had them. The leverage index varies on relievers for teams. They have high/low leverage guys.
  7. bean5302
    I feel like Baldelli and Falvey might be learning about the concept of GIGO (garbage in-garbage out) in analytics. Slowly, though.
  8. bean5302
    Games decided by x number of runs for the Twins in 2024 4+ = 73 games <--- this is where low leverage relievers get their innings 3 = 20 games <--- maybe here, too 2 = 27 games 1 = 42 games There are absolutely going to be mediocre to questionably MLB worthy relievers who take the mound for the Twins (and every single other team in MLB) this year. Here are the names of the relievers who generated 0.0 or less WAR for Minnesota by innings pitched. There will be a plan to use several of their relievers exclusively in low leverage situations. That's standard MLB practice. It's also unavoidable relievers sometimes get used in situations you'd rather not deploy them if possible. Steven Okert - 35 innings Kody Funderburk - 34 innings Jay Jackson - 26 innings Louie Varland - 17 innings Trevor Richards - 13 innings Diego Castillo - 10 innings 7 other nameless relievers under 10 innings. The very best bullpen in all of baseball last year, the Guardians, sent out Scott Barlow and Nick Sandlin to pitch 130 times for a total of 111.2 innings. Barlow produced 0.0 fWAR with a 4.25 ERA and a 4.02 FIP while Sandlin's 0.0 fWAR came with a very lucky 3.81 ERA despite the 5.23 FIP. Everybody understands the concept of not keeping a pitcher who isn't of MLB caliber or potential. Johan Santana wasn't worth a roster spot when the Twins took him in. Worked out okay for the Twins as I recall.
  9. bean5302
    I'd like to hope this is a minor injury. Matthews wasn't likely to make the 26 man out of camp, but he's still likely got a solid future ahead, including some 2025 appearances on the mound! Roto sites seem to be reporting it as ankle related.
  10. bean5302
    I'd expect Correa will play at least 135 games this year. Injuries happen, but Correa's been more durable than he's given credit for around these parts. Depth is probably not a problem. Castro, Lewis and Holland (AAA) have the tools necessary to play SS. The biggest question is whether or not Holland's bat shows up again this year. Can he hit at the MLB level well enough to replace Castro as a super utility/backup shortstop?
  11. bean5302
    The Twins have not valued stolen bases under Baldelli, and I don't expect that to change. 2019 - Dead last (28 for the whole team) 2020 - Dead last (14 for the whole team) 2021 - #25 (54 for the whole team) 2022 - Dead last (38 for the whole team) 2023 - tied #23-25 (86 for the whole team) 2024 - Dead last (65 for the whole team) No manager and front office in baseball history has ever valued stolen bases less.
  12. bean5302
    Brooks Lee does not have the physical skill set to play SS. He's very slow and he's got a weak arm. Only the Twins would even consider Lee as a potential option at SS.
  13. bean5302
    A single strikeout prone player may not be an issue. Having an entire lineup constructed with them makes it very hard to manufacture consistent runs. Twins fans have seen the outcome first hand. These evaluations are based on a single player striking out, but it's also a garbage evaluation because it should be evaluating strike out vs. putting a ball in play. Not strike out vs. other outs. Why? Because putting the ball in play doesn't always result in an out. A strikeout virtually always does.
  14. bean5302
    Yes. Shortstop running to the 1B side (or 2B running towards 3B side), makes the catch, steps on 2nd, no play at the plate, no play at 3B, throws to first base 6-4-3 (or 4-3). Run scores. Happens more than a few times a year. +1 run scores, 2 outs, runner at 3B
  15. bean5302
    Pretty violent delivery, though it's been modified somewhat.
  16. bean5302
    Camargo was also an LAD product, except he's at the same level as Cartaya despite being 2 years older.
  17. bean5302
    I'm concerned about the Twins coaches even understanding the fundamentals of defense. I can't remember a single plus defender who was developed in Falvey's regime. I don't think it's ever happened, has it? We'll see whether or not the coaches can help Lewis with his throwing accuracy, but considering they hadn't been able to address it in prior years (much to the chagrin and criticism levied by Trevor Plouffe), I'm not confident the Twins are hiring competent defensive coaches to begin with. I don't have faith in Lewis being healthy this year. I just can't after the year after year waterfall of injuries, even if they were likely linked to the initial ACL tear and subsequent loss of stability in different muscle groups. Royce Lewis has the talent, personality, and the physical skillset to truly be the face of the franchise and a nationally recognized star. I hope, I don't expect, though.
  18. bean5302
    Probably worth noting that Matt Canterino got back his MRI results confirming a shoulder strain and he's down indefinitely.
  19. bean5302
    Less of a waste than "destroys your hope of winning guy"
  20. bean5302
    I continue to be baffled by the expectations Varland has a good chance to be an elite bullpen arm. There's not much in Varland's history or profile which suggest he might even be an effective setup man. I know there's talk about his knuckle curve, but he had that pitch last year, too. It was his only above average pitch in Stuff+. One of the important things about Stuff+ is how it evaluates a repertoire not only based on characteristics of a pitch, but also how effective you'd expect a pitch to be based on the other offerings a pitcher has. I think Varland could be a solid reliever, but I don't see any major upside right now. Most top relievers like Duran and Jax have at least one elite pitch. Varland's best pitch is maybe a tick above average. The quality of Varland's offerings compare similarly to Josh Staumont and Ronny Henriquez, but nobody is expecting those guys to lead a bullpen any time soon. Even Michael Tonkin has a better pitch (changeup) than Varland's best. Louie Varland Stuff+ Fastball 100 (50 grade) Sinker 98 (45 grade) Cutter, 99 (45 grade) Changeup 93 (45 grade) KnuckleCurve 107 (50 grade)
  21. bean5302
    Agreed about the Tonkin hate. 0.6 fWAR last year which ranks 77th of 203 (top 38%) relievers in MLB with 40+ innings. He ranked lower in 2023 (160th of 198 at bottom 22%), but he still provided positive value which is more than I can say for Louie Varland or 11 other relievers who pitched for Minnesota last year. Tonkin's durable as a middle innings reliever for only $1MM. The 8th spot in the bullpen is not going to be a high leverage closer role. What teams are hoping for out of the 8th spot is for a guy to come in, keep the game from drastically changing and get the team on to the next game. Tonkin bounced around so much because of his limited upside. He wasn't a shiny new toy, and another team was guaranteed to pick him and his small salary up. Varland is not a starting pitcher. He may not even have a ceiling higher than Tonkin in the bullpen. The Twins front office always plays secret squirrel with information as if every player on the roster is a starting quarterback for an NFL team. It's weird.
  22. bean5302
    He should be DFA'd to make room on the 40 man. Shoulder strain based on the MRI. https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/headlines/matt-canterino-injury-out-with-shoulder-strain-951028
  23. bean5302
    Well that and Paddack will be injured at the trade deadline like every year since 2020
  24. bean5302
    Baldelli will deploy Castro all over the place. It doesn't matter if it's good or bad.
  25. bean5302
    K rate, BB rate, K-BB rate, xFIP, Stuff+ for Matthews are all better than Paddack or SWR. Matthews got barreled up a lot last year, but he'll probably wind up being a better pitcher than SWR or Paddack. There's plenty of reason to want Matthews in the rotation again right now, but I think it is best for him to get more polish at AAA.
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