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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Players were always evaluated based on metrics. The metrics have changed. Please point me to the DrGast metrics I can use to evaluate Christian Vazquez.
  2. bean5302
    Twins opening day rotation games started 2024 = 118 (Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Varland) 2023 = 118 (Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda) 2022 = 116 (Gray, Ryan, Ober, Bundy, Archer) *Paddack was the 6th man for the rotation. 2021 = 112 (Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Happ, Shoemaker) The Twins have needed at least 44 starts to be made by guys who were not part of the opening day rotation for the last 4 straight years. There are going to be guys who get hurt. There are likely guys who will lose their spots in the rotation or be traded before opening day or during the season.
  3. bean5302
    I am not bullish on SWR remaining in the rotation long term. His conditioning appears to have been an issue last year and once the scouting reports got out, he wasn't all that effective. His stuff didn't grade well, either. Probably a better option out of the bullpen long term, IMHO.
  4. bean5302
    I think they need to evaluate him to determine whether or not his stuff is worth keeping. If his stuff isn't good enough to be a starter right now, moving him to the bullpen for a long relief or low leverage situation is fine. There's no reason to give up more value for him than the team needs to give up.
  5. bean5302
    Do you have a DGastWAR set of metrics you could point me to?
  6. bean5302
    Vazquez caught games because he was making $10MM per year, Baldelli likes to rest his players on a regular basis, catcher is a demanding physical position and Jeffers has missed time due to injuries. Vazquez provided -0.2 to +0.8 WAR last year, depending on your favorite mainstream WAR method and how much value you place in "catcher framing." Vazquez is not a plus defensive catcher by any traditional metric, and last year he produced his highest framing value that he's had since 2019 (he's been mostly neutral-ish recently). His sole premium defensive "skill" is related to catcher framing. A metric which is not repeatable and is not reflected in actual results on the field for Twins pitchers when comparing Jeffers and Vazquez. In regard to Gasper, I've no idea how good he is. I'm glad to know you're an seasoned expert on his skill set despite having likely never seen him catch a single ball.
  7. bean5302
    Yeah, I'm not so sure his stuff will play as well as people think. He's got very little experience above the low minors and his walk rate at AA was rough. He'll have to locate his pitches to have success, but it'd be great to see how his stuff works at the high minors level at least!
  8. bean5302
    Vazquez doesn't really add value. He's a safety net, and I hope the Twins trade him before the season starts because that will mean either Cartaya or Gasper has wowed management. I'm not low on Cartaya at the moment. His poor performance at the plate in 2023 came after a promotion to AA, and in 2024 after a promotion to AAA. Both were accompanied by low BABIP possibly due to a lot of popups or poor contact, but his first half of 2023 and 2024 were both highly productive. Might be slow to adapt, and he might have a ceiling at the plate, but if he's a solid defensive catcher, he doesn't need to rake. Love the fact he threw out a baserunner trying to steal 2nd the other day. Gapser is a total unknown at catcher. Doesn't seem like the Yankees or Red Sox really thought much of his catching skills, but Gasper was a catcher when he was drafted and remained a 1/2 time catcher throughout the minors. Mitch Garver was considered a butcher at the position until he got coached up. Perhaps Gasper can make the same strides defensively with a little help? His bat may or may not play. He'll have to swing the ball at the MLB level to have a chance. When it comes to Camargo, he had a similar line at AAA to Cartaya last year, but it was Camargo's 2nd go 'round in AAA and he doesn't have the defensive reputation. Improving on both sides of the ball will be difficult.
  9. bean5302
    Pitcher is #1. Catcher is #2 :p
  10. bean5302
    Guys are just getting tooled up at this point so it's hard to take much away from results. Spring training for pitchers is about getting a feel for their stuff and working on improving pitch movement and feel. For hitters, it more about getting familiar with any adjustments they've made and some experience in a game day setting. Nice to see Canterino was even throwing. It'll be a huge accomplishment for him if he can remain healthy this Spring. I'm also glad to see Wallner showing power early. He was ice cold last spring and it carried into the start of the regular season.
  11. bean5302
    Canterino. 1.0 IP, 25 pitches (12 strikes), 3 walks, 2 wild pitches. 1 strike out. Got out of a jam when Cartaya threw out a guy trying to steal 2nd base, and ended the inning with a fly out.
  12. bean5302
    Not sure how to give myself a WAR point. I've attended 70+ games over the past 3 years where I was a season ticket holder each year including as a Club Level member last year. I do not listen on the radio or on TV, but I do watch on MLB replay (complete games) most games. I purchase a few pieces of merch every year. My average game day food/beverage purchases are significant. I visit a Twins fan site every day and I comment most days. I cannot stand podcasts. 15 minutes of relevant content, 45 minutes of guys hanging out, sponsor placement, bad music and rambling. It's been a couple years, but I've seen the Twins play in Denver, San Francisco, Oakland, Seattle, Baltimore, Boston and Anaheim. I've probably been like a 4 WAR fan?
  13. bean5302
    Ben Revere is my vote.
  14. bean5302
    Jump = feet covered in CORRECT direction from 0.0 to 3.0 seconds Reaction = feet covered in ANY direction 0.0-1.5 seconds Burst = feet covered in ANY direction 1.6-3.0 seconds Route = feet covered vs. straight line to ball 0.0-3.0 seconds Martin does not have the physical skill toolset you'd expect to excel in CF. He's got the bare minimum sprint speed and arm to play the position, but he doesn't get good reads on the ball off the bat. People were asking if it was just a couple routes Martin ran poorly, and the answer is no. Martin had many catchable balls which landed for hits, though it seems like he was especially weak tracking balls landing between him and right field. Scroll to the bottom of the link for the map images. There's an interactive map of an outfield. Set hang time to 5.5+ seconds. Set the catch rate to 55%+. Set the Catch Rate LT slider up a notch or two. Turn on sprint speed range for reference. You'll see Martin missed 5 high probability catches compared to making 2 of them. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/austin-martin-668885?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlb
  15. bean5302
    Bailey Ober started 2023 in AAA after a far more impressive 2022 than SWR had in 2024.
  16. bean5302
    From MLBTR, Larry Dolan, the 94 year old owner of the Cleveland Guardians has passed away. There were plans in place back in 2022 to transfer controlling interest in the team from Dolan to NJ Devils & Philadelphia 76ers owner David Blitzer over a 6 year period starting. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/guardians-owner-larry-dolan-passes-away-94.html The Guardians have been the thriftiest of the AL Central for a long time now, but new ownership could change that. Cleveland has definitely done the most with the least in the division so the Twins may wind up playing in a more competitive division with the likelihood the Ishbia's become the owners of the White Sox and the changing of the guard in Cleveland. A new stadium will be coming for the Royals in the next few years so they're poised to increase spending and the Tigers play in a larger market than Minneapolis. I'm less and less confident in the Twins' long term position under the Pohlad family.
  17. bean5302
    .284/.322/.441 OPS .763 wRC+ 115. Yep. Jose Miranda had a real terrible year in 2024. Probably should just DFA and release him. After all, almost 33% of MLB hitters were as productive at the plate as he was. The bum. Everybody knows if you're not in the top 10%, you might as well hang up the cleats.
  18. bean5302
    It's not "my" grading system. I just threw some numbers out there that I don't even agree with to illustrate a point.
  19. bean5302
    Any exercise that shows Paddack being DFA'd and released isn't to be taken so literally :)
  20. bean5302
    Tesla lost money for years and years while the valuations of the company continued to soar. Profits are not necessarily related to company valuations.
  21. bean5302
    To the best of my knowledge, it hasn't been reported on why the Ishbia's stopped pursuing the purchase of the Twins. What was reported was: 1) The Ishbia's were no longer pursuing the purchase of the Twins. 2) The Ishbia's were approached by Jerry Reinsdorf about buying out some minority White Sox owner shares which would not give the Ishbia's a majority stake or team control. 3) The Ishbia's intend to accept Reinsdorf's proposal. If the Ishbia's were outbid, they might have decided to stop the pursuit. If that is the case, the high bidder can't just drop their bid because the Ishbia's are out based on price, not interest. A bidder can't play bidding games like that, either. Offers are offers and gaming the offer to scare off other bidders would have consequences.
  22. bean5302
    I was just responding to the comments about how the Twins better be using their best guys and not stashing SWR or Zebby or whomever in AAA. The grading system is totally made up and almost completely arbitrary. Depth is a concern and I was just illustrating how.
  23. bean5302
    Morris is not on the 40 man, and if he were added to the 40 man, he could be optioned. Aside from that, he wasn't necessary to the point. Castellano is on the 40 man and cannot be optioned so by default he's ahead of Morris in a technical way.
  24. bean5302
    Sorry, Paddack is already toast. There's no team in baseball who wanted to trade for him (anything of value anyway), and if he were a free agent this past offseason, I don't think any team would have given him more than a MiLB contract with an invite to spring training, regardless of how many people sing his praises around here. There really isn't much further down Paddack can go this year. He could secure himself a nice 1 year $12MM deal if he pitches at his absolute career peak and remains healthy this year, though.
  25. bean5302
    What if the pitchers were graded? 80 Pablo Lopez 70 Joe Ryan 70 Bailey Ober 65 David Festa 65 Zebby Matthews ------------------------------ 60 Simeon Woods Richardson (AAA) 60 Eiberson Castellano (returned to Phillies) 55 Chris Paddack (DFA, released) 40 Marco Raya 30 Travis Adams In week 2, Ryan has forearm tightness and needs TJ. In week 4, Zebby Matthews strains a hamstring, out 6-8 weeks. Now you have 40 score Marco Raya in the rotation instead of 60 score Castellano. Giving up a little bit of presumed quality for depth isn't a terrible game plan. Guys are almost certain to get injuries thougout the year, and starts in May and June means just as much as having what you think will likely be a 2% better chance to win games in April.
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