bean5302
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Everything posted by bean5302
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They even got cheap with limiting the magnet schedules given away opening weekend, LOL.
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These two images above are why Bader was signed. If Austin Martin made use of his tools, he'd be a 2 WAR full season center fielder, but Martin's reaction time is poor and his acceleration is below average. Martins instincts and situational awareness when fielding the ball are also poor. Bader uses his tools to their fullest, and historically (this is a bit concerning) he was quite a bit faster than Martin. Martin is not new to CF or outfield in general. DaShawn Keirsey's (.991/2.53) career fielding numbers in MiLB are arguably worse than Martin's (.995 FP, 2.62 RF/9), though it's very hard to compare the two fairly. What I can say with confidence is Keirsey's numbers in center field do not project him as a plus center fielder, IMHO. He doesn't grade out impressively vs. other center fielders in the same league with the metrics I have available. The fact the Twins have cast off Michael Helman and signed Harrison Bader make it clear how they feel about Keirsey and Martin based on the scouting and coaching teams. The front office has determined neither is a viable starting CF option and the Twins absolutely need that because they know Buxton is very likely to be able to play only 60-80 games in CF.
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Sure, if there's value, the Twins might move Bader at the deadline... and if they're also out of playoff contention.
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Who is he blocking? DaShawn Keirsey, Jr.?
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For the people losing their minds over payroll, this must be really stressful as the narrative of cheap ownership is being eroded. The Twins were projected near $140MM as the offseason commenced, and now they're into the mid $140s. This is Falvey-esque in terms of how things are coming about. Collect a whole bunch of 1 WAR types for depth and versatility rather than spend the budget on a couple highly valuable players. It's the front office holding the team back, not the ownership IMHO.
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Not really. wRC+ Bader vs. Margot from first significant playing time season for both players (2018) 2018 = 107 vs. 90 2019 = 82 vs. 84 2020 = 114 vs. 94 2021 = 108 vs. 94 2022 = 84 vs. 104 2023 = 68 vs. 92 2024 = 85 vs. 79 Margot couldn't hit, he was rapidly declining defensively partially due to losing his speed. Bader was at least still good defensively last year. I'd expect a wRC+ 85ish year from Bader and very good defense in center field, where he should still be able to play.
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Bader is a serviceable full time CF. Very good defense, poor hitter. At $6MM, makes sense for a Byron Buxton backup. I have no idea what the payroll target for this team actually is. Not sure if this has a significant impact on Castro. I agree with comments comparing Bader to Michael A. Taylor. Fairly similar in terms of value at the plate and value in the field expectations prior to each joining the Twins.
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Hits a heck of a lot better than Manny Margot did last year, and he can play defense.
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Please, sign me up for an aging 1.0 WAR player. We need it!!!!
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Can we shut the door on the Byron Buxton might be healthy or might be the best CF in MLB stuff? He's a good center fielder. One of the better ones, overall. He'll play a maximum of 60-80 games in center field, and his WAR is going to be based on whether or not he finishes the year on a hot streak or cold streak. Last year, he finished on a big hot streak. He was a below average MLB hitter for most of his season. 2B is obviously a dark horse. Depending on trades and personnel swapping, I think Willi Castro could even find himself as a static 2B this year. SP is deep for Minnesota, but lacks ceiling. The Twins might are at the edge of a top 10 rotation in the projections at 13.6 fWAR, ranking 8th in MLB. There's a pretty tight grouping of MLB rotations around that 13.6 value. Plus or minus 1 WAR would rank the Twins anywhere from 5th to 13th.
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- byron buxton
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I'll pass on the Twins promos. First 10,000 fans, lol, yeah right. If it's a good giveaway and for 10k fans, gotta be at the game 1hr before gates open to collect the 8k which will actually be available after people buy the first 2k before game.
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I didn't intend to imply Stewart does have any successes. I should have clarified "As far as where he fits in, Brock Stewart is pretty likely to open the year on at least the 15 day IL," When I write "he" I was still talking about Coulombe, not Stewart. It was poorly written on my part.
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A hard salary cap is not necessary, and it will never be accepted by players. The impact on long term contracts would be more than a little chilling. Dead cap in terms of performance could render a team non-competitive for years and years with the kind of contracts baseball teams hand out right now. The biggest contract in NFL history is 2020's extension of Pat Mahomes which was a 10 year $450MM deal. Of that, ONLY 3 years and $63MM was guaranteed at signing. Other than Deshaun Watson's catastrophe, Joe Burrow's $147MM guarantee is the largest in NFL history with only 11 contracts in NFL history ever hitting the $100MM guarantee mark. While the participants in this evaluation have undoubtedly gained a new perspective from the exercise, the us (fans + players for some reason) vs. them (owners) still lingers on.
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So... when evaluating Derek Falvey's motivation, I think it's important to consider a couple things. 1) How much does Falvey's performance impact whether or not the new owner is going to keep him? 2) How much does Falvey want to stay with the Twins? 3) What are Falvey's other options around the league? 1) If the new owner has already formed an opinion on Derek Falvey (and they very likely have), that opinion is probably going to stick. An unexpectedly poor or great performance by the Twins in 2025 might move the needle, but it's awfully hard to change people's opinions. 2) I don't know about this one. This probably will depend hugely on new ownership. The Twins are an underperforming mid-market team, but the work thus far has come with minimal scrutiny and pressure for an MLB franchise. Expectations in most markets would be much higher pressure, but with a lot more reward, too. Falvey might prefer keeping a lower profile or he might prefer working in a milder climate or he might crave the spotlight. Who knows? 3) Regardless of what fans here think about Falvey's acumen, I think it's likely safe to say another team would hire him in some capacity. That said, Levine clearly hasn't had much luck in that regard. His LinkedIn profile role remains Twins GM. If Levine wanted a role in baseball and Falvey was highly regarded, I expect Levine would have been more coveted.
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2023 - .263/.367/.490 OPS .856 wRC+ 130 xwOBA .370, 13.9% BB, 25.1% K 1.7 fWAR 2023 - .263/.381/.459 OPS .839 wRC+ 135 xwOBA .345, 15.7% , BB, 31.4% K 2.8 fWAR 2023 Casas and Julien were very similar. Casas had more power, Julien had more OBP (likely help from BABIP). Both players had disappointing 2024s. Casas saw his K rate spike up from 25% to 31%, and while he hit fastballs well, he was neutral on everything else. Julien obviously outright struggled against most everything other than the fastball. In terms of defense, Casas grades out poorly. In UZR/150 grades him as average, DRS and OAA both say he's consistently been a total butcher due to range issues. Probably not an aberration, either. Casas is incredibly slow. Literally bottom 1% of all MLB players last year and he was only 24.
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Obviously, adding a lefty reliever fits the platoon heavy profile of the Twins' strategy, and I'm fine with Coulombe. As far as where he fits in, Brock Stewart is pretty likely to open the year on at least the 15 day IL, Topa's been constantly injured across his slow moving and lengthy career. It's unlikely the Twins come out of ST with no players on the IL. I don't think the Twins are attached to Topa as much as people around here seem to think. He's 34, and he has 1 successful year in his 5 year MLB career. He's never pitched more than 7.2 innings in an MLB season except 2023.
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Triston Casas is just a guy as far as I'm concerned. Take him out of Fenway, and poof. Career line: .250/.357/.473 OPS .830 as a lefty playing half his time at Fenway, which strongly favors lefties. Career 840 PA and 2.7 fWAR. It's just not that impressive. It's probably a toss up between Miranda at 1B and Casas at 1B if they're both healthy. The writer(s) at TD have talked about Casas many time this offseason, and I still can't figure out why there's such an interest in him? On a related note, that's exactly why Boston is making him available. Right now at BTV: Ryan +54.6 Ober +54.7 Lopez +47.6 Casas +28.3 Festa +23.6 Larnach +22.6 SWR +19.9
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The 86 wins isn't the outlier. The fact no AL Central team projects with more than 86 wins is the outlier. The model's credibility is weak.
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I think what @Vanimal46 is getting at is PECOTA is consistently wildly inaccurate. Their model is projecting 86 wins as enough to win a division when 86 wins hasn't worked in 16 years, and it's even very rare less than 90 wins gets it done. Their model is forecasting extreme outliers to start with. FGDC + 45 wins baseline at least projects the Twins as a 90 win team for the lead in the division. That provides a some modeling credibility where PECOTA has little to none.
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Larnach getting moved pushes Castro into LF. Castro gets moved pushes Brooks Lee into the IF vs. utility. Probably how it goes. The question is how much do the Twins lose by making those swaps. Larnach has never posted a 2 WAR season. Castro is a 2-3 WAR player, depending on where he plays. The drop off from losing them isn't probably critical.
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86 wins hasn't been enough to win a division since the 2008 Dodgers won the NL West with 84 wins. 86 wins has a 0.00% chance of being enough to win an MLB division over the past 16 years. I think the projection systems are light on things right now. Plus, there's a lot out there on the market right now.
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Wins vs. Losses are tough for me because there's a team component. We all saw how the Twins' lineup was totally inept for large portions of the season. The starter would leave the game after the 5th inning with the score 2-2 or 3-2 and the bullpen would then be tasked with pitching 4.0 scoreless innings because you know the Twins weren't scoring another run. That type of scenario is going to result in a ton of losses, but rarely a "win." The Twins were 12th in MLB in WPA through the All Star break, but 26th after that point. A lot of that had to do with the Twins' hitters not showing up.
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I don't really care too much about having a mediocre lefty in the bullpen. I'll take Duran or Jax vs. a LHB before I'd take a mediocre lefty vs. a LHB. Having lefties in the bullpen for LOOGY type matchups just isn't as valuable as it used to be. Sands, Alcala and others are perfectly serviceable vs. LHBs, but there are a couple guys out there who've struggled (Tonkin).
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I'd be happy shipping out SWR, Paddack and Larnach. Gotta have some payroll relief coming back (Paddack). It's a bit risky, though as it means a hit to the depth for the outfield, which is already thin.
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I think it's important to consider how good you need to be to win RoY, and let's be honest, if you're factoring into the league MVP/Cy Young, you're going to be winning RoY. WAR - AL, NL 2024 - 3.1, 5.9 2023 - 6.2, 5.4 2022 - 6.2, 5.2 2021 - 3.9, 4.1 2019 - 3.7, 5.5 Tons and tons of hype around Walker Jenkins. I'm just not sold until I see the power or get the scouting reports back on excellent CF play. I do think Jenkins has the potential to win in a down year, but he's going to have to play to his ceiling to do it. That said, I'd be surprised for him to get more than a cup of coffee at the MLB level this year. He's got a lot of missed time an opportunity to make up for in the minors this year. I'll be watching him closely in Spring Training this year. Emma also missed a ton of time and has been constantly hurt. I think he's got the highest likelihood to make the team opening day due to the fact this is his 2nd option year. If he's able to duplicate the Edouard Julien effort in 2023, Emma could be a RoY candidate. He's going to do a lot better than his 50% K rate last year in ST. I'd be surprised at Keaschall playing much at the MLB level this year. Not sure what the Twins' philosophy will be on his development, but I think they'll likely keep him in the outfield or 2nd base for the start of the season to protect his UCL.
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- emmanuel rodriguez
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