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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    ...and the Twins ate $5MM for Anthony DeScalafani instead of being able to sign a different free agent rotation arm while the pitching staff was tossing a guy into the rotation who started the year in High-A as a non-prospect. Topa is an always hurt middle reliever at market value.
  2. bean5302
    Kyle Gibson DFA'd by Baltimore https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/05/orioles-place-tyler-oneill-on-10-day-injured-list-2.html Tough to say what's going to happen here. Gibson can obviously refuse the assignment and become a free agent, but the best chance to get back to MLB might be with the Orioles. I think he'll refuse and sign a MiLB contract somewhere with an opt out.
  3. bean5302
    While I share your skepticism about the value of what the Twins have gotten back, 2024 was the end of the road for Polanco. He was a free agent this past year, and no team was going to exercise the option after how he played last year. The trade was a lose-lose as far as I'm concerned. The Twins got nothing in the year they really needed it, and the Mariners got nothing, either.
  4. bean5302
    I suspect Sands doesn't have the ability to choose which batters later score based on whether or not they'll impact his ERA. He's stranding 80.8% of base runners which is top 1/3rd of the league. One of the biggest reasons for regression is the 4.5% HR/FB rate. That's not going to hold up.
  5. bean5302
    Aaron Judge does not cover the strike zone any better than other good hitters. He's very weak against strikes at the top of the zone, and strikes which are down and away. He understands his strengths and weaknesses after years in the league, though, and Judge has adjusted his swing/take approach to allow him to reduce his K rate from 31% for his first 3 seasons all the way down to 22% so far this year. McCusker's not Aaron Judge. Like, not even close. While a 115.0mph max EV is still impressive, certainly 70 grade raw power, Judge has averaged in the 118-121 range. It's next level along with some other super elites. McCusker is also very raw by MLB standards. I think McCusker's ability to adapt is clear, and there's no reason to believe he's hit his ceiling yet. Here's how McCusker's plate discipline adjusted 2023 A FTM 9.3% BB/ 35.2% K 2023 A+ CED 6.1% BB / 39.0% K 2024 AA WCH 9.0% BB / 27.9% K <--- this was a massive leap forward 2024 AAA STP 7.1% BB / 33.7% K <--- still better than A+ ball the year before, now at AAA 2025 AAA STP 8.4% BB / 29.9% K <--- this is another leap forward. Going from 33.7% K to 29.9% might not seem like a huge change, but it's very relevant, and McCusker has been getting better as the AAA season has moved forward. Throw out his last game at AAA, where McCusker got a little hosed on calls based on what I saw, McCusker owned a 25.3% strike out rate in his previous 20 games. Now, what can McCusker be? That's the big question, and we won't know until he gets regular plate appearances at the MLB level. I think Wallner is close to a rehab assignment at this point as he's been running, sprinting and taking turns while participating in batting practice for over a week now. I'm not sure calling McCusker up to get him a week of sporadic playing time is a good use of the 40 man roster so we'll just have to wait and see how the Twins deploy him.
  6. bean5302
    He's scouted as poor defensively, but you have to take scouting reports with a grain of salt. So much of defensive scouting is about how a player "looks" versus the results they actually get. Matt Wallner is an example. Fangraphs scouted him at like 30 speed, but he actually had 60 grade speed in his first season. McCusker's RF/9 in right field, as compared to other fielders in the division, was well above average. He looks awkward because of his size. With huge strides, it makes him look slower than he is.
  7. bean5302
    Having DaShawn Keirsey starting games is just no bueno. The biggest concern about Bader was whether or not he'd be healthy when Buxton was invariably injured. Anyway, the Christian Vazquez of the outfield certainly doesn't help us win games, but with Bader hobbled, Buxton on the IL, Martin and Keaschall down, not sure where the Twins go.
  8. bean5302
    Alcala didn't make a difference in this game. Not sure why people are losing their minds over it. I don't think he's going to be successful in a Twins uniform, and I don't think trying to option him would be successful, and I don't think it would help if Alcala did go to AAA. He needs a new organization who isn't competitive and will continue to give Alcala chances. Not sure he has the control to be successful anywhere, but he won't have it here.
  9. bean5302
    Lots of excuses for Matthews, who couldn't throw strikes. Matthews missed again, and again, and again. Then he'd throw a pitch on the edge hoping to get a call. The ump clearly missed a couple calls. Clearly. But, I don't think the ump was squeezing Matthews as much as Matthews couldn't throw a strike to save his life by the 3rd inning, and the ump picked up on it. Zebby Matthews is 100% responsible for that outing. Inning 1, Matthews didn't throw strikes and the Brewers hacked away. Inning 2, Matthews threw more strikes and the Brewers got hits. Inning 3, Matthews labored hard through 2 hitters, then threw no strikes and the Brewers stopped hacking so they took walks. Matthews went back into the zone and the Brewers got hits. Simple as that. Zebby throws strikes, guys get hits. Zebby throws balls, guys take walks. Matthews' stuff wasn't fooling Milwaukee hitters is what it boils down to. Of course, fastball, fastball, fastball, slider, fastball, fastball, fastball, slider, fastball, fastball, cutter, fastball might not be the best pitch mix. Kudos to the Brewers' hitters taking professional at bats. It was clear Matthews had no control and they were going to make him throw strikes or take their free walks. I've so frequently seen Twins hitters take a first pitch hack at what was a ball way outside after a guy walks 2 Twins batters in a row. Nice to see pro hitting there in the 3rd. When a pitcher can't throw strikes, you stop swinging until they prove they can.
  10. bean5302
    People are awfully excited about Gabriel Gonzalez. I really like what he's doing in A+ ball right now, but it's in A+, and his 3rd season in A+ ball. Gonzalez was all but written off coming into this year after back to back unimpressive seasons in Cedar Rapids. Seattle had been pretty aggressive with his promotions so Gonzalez isn't old for a good prospect at A+, but he's not really young, either. Gonzalez needs to move to AA sooner than later so his skills can be tested to see if he's improved.
  11. bean5302
    Using this kind of logic, any free agent any team signs could be attributable to their last trade. Santana was clearly a valuable signing for Minnesota, but if the Mariners had offered the Twins Ty France as part of the package, would they still have signed Santana?
  12. bean5302
    Went back and looked at Emma's last 5 games in detail pitch by pitch, and I just don't see how he's a legitimate top prospect. Fangraphs shows Emma at a 9.6% O-swing rate, but in the past 5 games, its been 28% by my count, not that it's helped him. His swinging strike rate (whiff rate) has been at 17.2% and he's had a 18.4% called strike rate. Both are terrible, and within tolerances for his season. He generally won't swing at absolute junk, but he almost never makes good contact, either. He does foul off a ton of balls in the zone, but many of those foul balls are going to be swinging strikes at the MLB level. The results he's getting have been good lately, but it appears to be heavily influenced by luck rather than skill to me. Glad to see Miranda and Holland with a couple hits a piece, but it'd really be nice to have additional better bullpen options in St. Paul. Further down the minors, it's great to see Dasan Hill back on the mound and DeBarge clearly not missing a beat after his brief few days off from being HBP.
  13. bean5302
    I do not see this trend of moving away from closers for enhanced flexibility. There were essentially the same number of pitchers with 20+ saves in 2024 as there was in 2014. There are more injuries, and closers are used a bit more flexibly, but Duran still has 4x as many saves as anybody else on the Twins this year. He's on pace for about 30 saves this year. Tough to earn saves when your team loses 12 in a row (no saves) and then wins 12 in a row (can't pitch every day). It feels like the legend of the opener and 6 man rotation strategies. When it comes to Sands, his xERA, xFIP and SIERA are all at 4.00+, and it's not like he generates a crazy number of pop-ups. He's due for regression.
  14. bean5302
    Pretty sure they've both talked about it. Here's Morneau speculating he had concussions while playing hockey. One of the biggest issues with concussions and history is... nobody cared until about 10-15 years ago so nothing was documented. https://www.startribune.com/day-and-night-justin-morneau-was-a-twins-star-10-years-ago-when-a-slide-into-second-base-changed-everything/571729992
  15. bean5302
    Much is going to depend on Buxton, Correa, Lewis and Wallner, I think. The pitching regression is coming, just not sure how rough it's going to be, and how many runs the offense can consistently score to deal with it.
  16. bean5302
    Cherry picking is when you choose a few pieces of data that favor your argument while ignoring the stuff that doesn't. You absolutely cherry picked. Furthermore, it's arrogant to trash talk another franchise when the Twins were in the exact same position as them 2 weeks ago.
  17. bean5302
    The Orioles offered top dollar to Burnes. He wanted to play in Scottsdale. Falvey's success with Jorge Lopez should be commended. His cast off of Yennier Cano looks pretty good, too, right? It's not too hard to cherry pick to support a position. The Twins were 7 games under .500 just a couple weeks ago so to come out here and start bragging about Falvey's ability to develop mid/late round pitching prospects when one single guy in the entire rotation fits that bill seems a little too much for me. I don't think the Twins would be doing so well if 3 of our best starters were on the IL and another had walked.
  18. bean5302
    I think it's long past time Gonzalez was moved to AA. He really doesn't have anything left to prove in A+ ball, he's been a top prospect, and he's rule 5 eligible this December. I don't like the idea of adding a guy in A+ or with limited AA experience to the 40 man roster, and I don't like the idea of exposing him and losing him like Akil Baddoo, either.
  19. bean5302
    Mauer and Morneau were both catchers and played heavy contact sports (Mauer QB and Morneau who was a hockey goalie) prior to the start of their professional baseball careers. Both experienced many concussions prior to the career crushing ones so they're a little different. Concussions can have long term lingering effects, but the increased risks are more prevalent when there have been multiple concussions. Let's hope Correa's lack of known concussion history helps him out here.
  20. bean5302
    When I go back and look at each plate appearance, something sticks out. MLB umpires are very, very good compared to MiLB umpires, LOL. Anyway, as much as I've been impressed with Gonzalez this year, he had 3 meatballs which turned into ground out, ground into DP, ground out. Those walks featured several "strikes" which were called balls. Not his best effort, haha.
  21. bean5302
    2013 - a19, NCAA OPS .731 (Mediocre) 2014 - a20, NCAA OPS .668 (Poor) 2015 - a21, NCAA OPS .794 (Mediocre) 2016 - a22, NCAA OPS .610 (Poor), Undrafted 2017 - a23, Indy Ball OPS .695 (Poor) 2018 - a24, Low A wRC+ 109 (Mediocre) 2019 - a25, A+ wRC+ 109 (Mediocre) 2020 - NA 2021 - a27, AA wRC+ 128 (Good) 2022 - a28, AAA wRC+ 85 (Poor) 2023 - a29, AAA wRC+ 103 (Mediocre) 2024 - a30, AAA wRC+ 95 (Poor) 2025 - a31, AAA wRC+ 153 (Great) -> 148 PA, .398 BABIP, This guy can handle the bat!!! He's a bad hitter, but the Twins will be able to DFA him without anybody claiming him, and he should be able to adequately cover middle infield. The Twins can't feel too comfortable about Fitzgerald's defense if they started Lee at shortstop over him.
  22. bean5302
    I honestly have no idea how good / bad he is. I had previously noted his arm is poor. He was adequate at controlling the run game in the minors, but it's certainly not a strength. The topic was about the danger of being labeled AAAA, and I think your comments are especially on point here. You determined he was not MLB caliber after watching 3 games and pointing to how other teams have deployed him. Gasper has that AAAA reputation. My interest in Gasper as a potential backup catcher is for 3 reasons. 1. Vazquez is one of the worst players in MLB. Even if Gasper is poor, how much worse can he be? 2. Camargo, Cartaya and Winkel all look like busts so if Vazquez or Jeffers gets hurt... 3. Ricardo Olivar is the best catching prospect in the Twins' system. In no way shape or form do I believe Gasper has a future as a starting MLB catcher, but the Twins have virtually no depth at the position, and the backup they do have is terrible.
  23. bean5302
    The Wild looked like a Minnesota team in the playoffs. The good 'ol, we'll give it our best shot and oh by golly if things go right we might just have a shot. The Wolves have a different feel and look to them. A level of confidence an attitude you'll find in championship teams that we don't see in Minnesota.
  24. bean5302
    I think the rose trees I planted in my front yard are still alive, but I'm pretty sure the climbing roses I had in the back yard didn't make it. Rabbits annihilated my 4 of 6 of my stargazers and 3 of 6 of my liatris as well. Surprisingly, virtually everything I got from Menards made it planted into the poor soil in the front, and most stuff I got from Gertens that I planted in raised beds with folded up shop.
  25. bean5302
    A recent drop in velo for Matthews corresponded to him getting knocked around hard, but he bounced back in both velo and results in his last start. It'll be interesting to see how hard Matthews is throwing on Sunday, and get some indications on how his pitches are working against MLB hitters.
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