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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    If there's no fixing him, I'd rather he succeed elsewhere. If he can rebuild some value, I'd like to see it happen. Low leverage only at this point, though. With a quick hook, too.
  2. bean5302
    Yeah, would have ended the inning 1-1. Tough not to find fault with that play by Julien. The long standing conventional technique would be to lean over and field the ball on the run or dive for the stop because it prevents the ball from getting past the fielder, period. Julien's technique, that I've seen him use many times, is to knee slide while fielding. It puts him in a bad position to view the ground ball and at what seems like an awkward angle to field it, but it's kind of a combo move. It provides him with a somewhat better chance of stopping the ball from going into the outfield if he mishandles it (didn't work here) than fielding the ball on the run, and it provides him with a faster throw than a full dive. Devers was out by a mile even if Julien dove. Bad instincts, bad technique, bad situational awareness in this case. Does the fault lie with Julien or the Twins' coaches for having Julien use that technique?
  3. bean5302
    Alcala needs to be off the MLB roster. I don't think he's tradable anymore, and with his stuff, I'm hesitant to DFA him and watch him turn into the next Yennier Cano.
  4. bean5302
    Rankings from 15-30 are pretty much interchangeable. It's not like there's a huge difference between them as they're all long shots to be valuable at the MLB level. Adams' average exit velocity is near 90mph in AAA, and he doesn't miss bats so that's a big problem. It's not going to get better at MLB, and I think Lewis has a higher likelihood of his pitches working out of the bullpen than Adams does as Lewis misses bats at a higher rate so there's less damage from hard hit balls to begin with. Neither one of them is going to be an MLB starter nor are either one of them likely going to be a dominant reliever. Cory Lewis is ranked higher by Fangraphs, MLB, Prospects1500, too so if you're surprised with my rankings because you feel strongly Travis Adams should be higher, you could always vent some rage at the entire collective MLB scouting base :)
  5. bean5302
    Ricardo Olivar, yes. 33% split between LF/C/DH. Not sure why he's not catching more. Jeferson Morales, no. Hasn't caught a single game. I'd swap Olivar (AAA) with Camargo (AA), and release Cartaya soon or send him to Ft. Myers to work on his stuff and maybe rebuild some confidence. Cartaya wasn't good at AAA for the Dodgers, but he was never like this. Not sure why people are so obsessed with tanking Prielipp's value, but it sure seems like a trend here.
  6. bean5302
    Sure do! Lets take a look at them, though. Mickey Gasper has a 1.417 OPS at St. Paul. Let's get that MVP candidate up here!!!! Oh... wait. Austin Martin, .978! Then again... IL and we know what Austin Martin isn't (good.) Well, maybe that Anthony Prato guy! .978 OPS! Oh... but, I think we're all pretty sure he's not going to keep that up and he's probably a MiLB journeyman type, though, honestly, maybe he's not worse (or much better) than one of our waiver wire type guys we picked up recently? When a .750 OPS is pretty much league average, an .800 OPS in the minors isn't all that impressive, though I'd absolutely 100% fast track Patrick Winkel to get a look at him and hope this is a big bounce back year for him so we can DFA/release Vazquez mid season.
  7. bean5302
    Just doing the quick update since not everybody wants to sit through a 1hr podcast. Keaschall is 6-8 weeks. Rodriguez is day to day, not yet on IL. Jenkins' ankle is still sore, got a cortisone shot. Won't be back until at least end of May. Charlee Soto hitting the IL with triceps strain. Not expected to be too long.
  8. bean5302
    Tigers. No question about it. I will root against the Dodgers if they're playing anybody.
  9. bean5302
    I don't think the Twins' system is short on talent, but it seems everybody on the list has big red flags. The top end talent is a bit questionable.
  10. bean5302
    This is how I voted: 1 Luke Keaschall Looks totally legit at the MLB level from a production and tools standpoint. 2 Walker Jenkins Injury prone, excellent hit tool, average power w/o room to fill out, corner OF 3 Connor Prielipp Elite stuff, injury risk, control/command issues. Bullpen risk, but #1 starter potential. 4 Charlie Soto Looks dominant in A+ already, multiple potential plus pitches, seems durable. 5 Dasan Hill 4 pitch lefty, dominant out of the gate A-ball a19. Sky's the limit. Building a floor. 6 Kyle DeBarge Hit/Power tools look good at A+, defensive results at SS dramatically improved. 7 Kaelyn Culpepper Hit tool great at the plate, limited power. Better at SS than expected. Could advance fast. 8 Emmanuel Rodriguez Power tool not playing against polished pitchers. Injury prone. High risk. 9 Marco Raya Good stuff, weak command, likely bullpen arm due to durability concerns. 10 Andrew Morris High velo, but can't miss bats. Back end rotation ceiling, probable BP. 11 Carson McCusker Huge power, but questionable contact/hit tool. Defensive liability in corner OF. 12 Brandon Winokur All the athleticism, but bat may not play. 13 Payton Eeles Great story and good hit tool. Below average power. Questions defensively. 14 Cory Lewis Middle relief ceiling. 15 Gabriel Gonzalez Bat keeps improving, but limited overall ceiling/athleticism. 16 Ricardo Olivar Twins desperate for catching, hampering progress with OF. No power, all hit tool in AA 17 Rayne Doncon Good, not great tools across the board. 18 CJ Culpepper No plus pitches so far, but looks like potentially a back end rotation piece. 19 Eduardo Beltre Huge ceiling, but DSL numbers are sketchy to project. 20 Daiber De Los Santos Billed as premium SS defense with great tools. Super young, but could pan out.
  11. bean5302
    As if Detroit wasn't dangerous enough in the AL Central as it is, Spencer Torkelson has found his swing. He's destroying opposing pitchers with elite exit velocity, hard hit and barrel rates along with dramatic improvements in plate discipline and contact. This was not something expected to develop, and it's bad news for the Twins. On top of that, Javvy Baez is hitting, though at least all the metrics suggest there's no good reason for his high productivity. That said, if the productivity sparks positive changes for him mentally, he could start building on the success (like Royce Lewis did his rookie year). If those bats keep producing, it's not hard to imagine the Tigers winning 100 games this year...
  12. bean5302
    Going to San Diego? 100% do one of the eat/walk tours.
  13. bean5302
    Ober's absolutely elite in terms of locating his pitches this year. Combined with a huge extension to help his limited fastball play up and a bunch of pitches to keep batters guessing, it's just enough. Contact rates, hard hit rates and exit velocities are right at the edge of sustainable. I'd be pushing to trade him to a contender at the deadline because he doesn't look like a guy who is going to age well at all.
  14. bean5302
    Louis Varland's stuff: 120-125+ would be 60 grade. Varland's definitely far short of plus-plus stuff. You can see the Location+ score is very high (very few pitchers are in that 105+ area). While the author postulates Varland has a meatball problem, Louis has to live in the zone because hitters won't chase his offerings outside of the zone because his pitches don't move well. If Varland could hit his spots perfectly, he might be more effective, but pitchers with elite command who never miss their spots don't exist. If Varland misses, his pitch winds up middle middle and gets clobbered or outside the zone for a ball because hitters rarely swing at his stuff out of the zone. This means Varland's primary weapon is the speed delta between his pitches. He lives and dies based on whether or not the hitter guesses the correct pitch since the fastball, sinker and changeup all move very similarly. In my opinion, Varland is getting pretty much the absolute best out of the stuff he's got.
  15. bean5302
    Walked off again.
  16. bean5302
    Trying to pick off Ramirez??? Like, why? Why risk the Twins pitchers throwing it into the dugout for the 874th time this year?
  17. bean5302
    LOL, the irony.
  18. bean5302
    Must be frustrating to the writers trying to push the diminished velo Duran story. Duran was over 100.0mph on 10 of 11 of his 4 seamers.
  19. bean5302
    Re: Will Holland. He's supposedly great defensively at SS which probably makes him the best shortstop the Twins franchise has, but I think he's going to have a long stint between missing almost all of the past 2 months including virtually all Spring Training. If Holland had looked good in ST, he absolutely would have gotten his number called already. Huge bummer for him on the timing of that hamstring injury.
  20. bean5302
    There are 7 Twins position players combining for $80MM in salary. Those players went a combined 2 for 12 .167/.167/.167 OPS .333 0% BB, 58% K The players making bank who didn't play? Vazquez $10MM (Bench) Bader $8MM (Bench) Castro $6MM (IL)
  21. bean5302
    Buxton pushing on the basepaths is really outstanding to see. It says that he's healthy, and he's now confident rather than playing apprehensively this year. If Buxton can continue to produce on the base paths, it can help the now 31 year old veteran prop up offensive production to offset physical decline through the end of his contract. Unlike seemingly 95% of baseball players who start packing on the poundage after they get that guaranteed contract, Buxton has clearly remained committed to outstanding physical conditioning, and he's maintained elite speed as a result. Brian Dozier very nearly made the list too with 167 HR and 98 SB in a Twins uniform. Seems like the Twins get just one of these players per decade or so.
  22. bean5302
    McCusker's results are starting to push the issue of a potential promotion, but he really does need to take more walks to demonstrate the plate discipline necessary to succeed at the MLB level. I'd like to see him stay in AAA for May before making a decision. Get close to 200 PA, where the sample size and regression starts getting closer to accurate. When it comes to Royce Lewis, I feel like he might stay in AAA a bit longer than I initially expected. He's really not hitting well so I think keeping him in St. Paul for another week to get a chance to tune up his timing might be needed.
  23. bean5302
    Who cursed Andrew Morris? WHIP, regression, pitches without elite movement, etc. 4.57 ERA vs. 3.33 FIP vs. 4.11 xFIP Game Logs. ERA vs. FIP vs. TD Hype Machine 0.00 vs. 2.47 vs. OMG, guaranteed Cy Young 2026! 0.00 vs. 3.47 vs. OMG, OMG, guaranteed Cy Young 2025!! 17.18 vs. 4.56 vs. Cut him some slack, it's all the defense's fault! Still #1 pitching prospect in MLB. 0.00 vs. 4.72 vs. See! He's back to elite ace! Guaranteed Cy Young 2026, trade Pablo Lopez! Morris 1337!!!! 9.00 vs. 1.72 vs. Who cursed Andrew Morris??????? Morris doesn't miss a ton of bats. Morris walks an average number of guys. Morris isn't an elite ground ball pitcher. Those factors combined hold Morris' stock back a bit. He's still a potential back end rotation arm, and that's great, but setting the sky high expectations is asking for an Icarus ending IMHO.
  24. bean5302
    Relative accuracy +0.7%, meaning the umpire was better than average. Only 3 pitches in the entire game were miscalled within human error limits. I generally give a pass to balls which were literally on the line.
  25. bean5302
    He's old, drafted out of college after his Junior season in 2021, and he fell to the 5th round after he got destroyed down the stretch for Mississippi State. His last 5 starts in the SEC amounted to only 16.2 innings allowing 25 earned runs. Now it's 4 years later, he's age 25 and in AA so he won't present a large radar cross section. Most good prospect college pitchers generally reach MLB in 2-3 years. MacLeod was delayed by a torn UCL and surgery that followed in 2022, but he doesn't have much draft or scouting pedigree, and his success has been limited. MacLeod's FIPs have been unimpressive in the minors. 2023 - a23 (A+) 4.45 2024 - a24 (A+) 4.33 2024 - a24 (AA) 4.11 2025 a25 (AA) 2.35 in 10.0 innings He came into this season with no real prospect status as he wasn't even on the top 30 for MLB. Fangraphs had him at #31 in the org. It's nice to see him getting some great results out of the gate, but it's a SSSS and the Twins chose to keep him in AA rather than AAA. It shows how he ranks organizationally.
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