bean5302

They save all his salary by trading him as well, plus the Twins get a return. There is no question a team would happily take the $6MM of Castro's Arb3 salary while also shipping a significant prospect (org 5ish) back to the Twins.

I consider the AFL to generally be closer to A+ than AA competition levels, but somewhere in between. Rosario has 4 XBH's in 90 plate appearances in the AFL. 0 Doubles. 1 Triple. 3 HRs. ISO = .170. A good prospect with 300 PA in AA should be cleaning house in AFL. His K rate is better than it was in AA at like 24.4%, but... meh. Austin Martin in 2022, for example. AA = .241/.367/.316 OPS .683, ISO .075, 11.6% BB, 13.3% K then AFL = .374/.454/.482 OPS .936, ISO .108, 8.2% BB, 7.2% K The feel around Twins fan sites was the Twins attempts to push Martin into a more power hitter approach caused his fall off in performance at AA, but the AFL results got most back on the Austin Martin bandwagon hard. AFL results are almost worthless when it comes to results for player already at AA or higher, and of little value for A+ level prospects. It's not a tough league, but it has a lot of value for fringe guys and getting some more practice and experience.

MLBTR estimates Jax to get $2.6MM. Spotrac estimates $2.8MM. Fangraphs' WAR based model suggests Jax should get $4.6MM. I think Jax will force arbitration if the Twins are in the traditional estimate range (2.5-3.0ish). I certainly would since he really has nothing to lose at that miniscule salary. If Jax gets closer to Fangraph's model, it has a huge impact on his potential trade value because his Arb2 and Arb3 salary projections would be dramatically higher and Jax would have a lot less surplus value. Jax's salary also has a big impact on the advantage to the Twins in trading him. At those traditional estimates, moving him makes no difference in the payroll, as the Twins stand to gain $2MM at most in capacity. So what can the Twins expect to get for a relief pitcher? Regardless of whether or not another team might be interested in re-trying Jax as a starter despite him failing to be serviceable in his first opportunity, trade partners are going to treat Jax as a reliever, which is his known value. Ryan Pressly had only 1.5yrs of team control instead of the 3.0yrs of Jax, but Jax projects to make 5x more money in arbitration and deadline deals are a trade premium. Give the edge to Jax handily by 50%-100% of value maybe? The Twins' return in the Pressly trade was Jorge Alcala (MLB org #7) and Gilberto Celestino (MLB org #23). Many folks here don't like BaseballTradeValues, but if we use their projections, Jax is worth 40.9MM in surplus based on production of 2.3 WAR per season and a salary projection of like $2.5 -> $4.0 -> $5.5 ($13MM total) which I think is probably absurdly low. The BTV model literally doubled Jax's value after August, 2024 sooooo... anyway. Personally, I think Jax would probably slot in at like $30MM surplus, and that's an org #2/3-ish, probably a fringe MLB top 50 prospect. If you're looking for a relief pitcher to bring an established, cost controlled MLB talent it will not be a mid/higher starting pitcher or a solid premium position player, at least IMO. The established MLB'er will likely cost more than Jax now or next year as well.

Buxton still has elite speed, and a cannon arm. It's worth noting how defensive metrics are not reliable in a single season, let alone partial seasons when forming an opinion like moving a guy off a position. Last year the component which held him back in terms of defensive value was reaction time which isn't terribly surprising after barely playing in the outfield for a year and a half prior. Buxton will rebound in defensive value, and so long as his speed remains 28.5 ft/sec plus, he's going to be the primary CF. Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez are next in line for potential CF's, but neither one of them have plus speed, and I don't think analysts were bullish on either sticking in CF to the best of my knowledge. They're fringy, maybe they can handle CF guys. They're not going to be plus CF's. DaShawn Keirsey has his advocates, but stats don't paint a bullish picture to me atm, though what I have to work with is very limited. Keirsey could be a once in a blue moon late career surprise. It sure would be great if I were dead wrong about him, haha. Buxton did try to increase his walk rate in 2022 and 2023 with some mixed results. There's so much noise in Buxton's ever changing approach at the plate that it's difficult to figure out which way he'll go the next year. Also, Buxton can hardly be described as an aggressive swinger at the plate. His career O-Swing rate is 30.9%, but between 2021-2023, it was only 28.1%, which would be better than average last year among hitters with 300+ PA, but his 2024 results were decidedly a bit wild at 33.1% (bottom 24% or so). He's a totally different hitter than Hunter, who played in a different era. I think Buxton's ceiling has already come and gone. He's a streaky hitter, and he's unlike Hunter in that Buxton has clear strengths and weaknesses against certain pitch types while Hunter was pretty steady across the board. Hunter also played in a different era of baseball where average FB velo was shifting dramatically. As fastballs sped up and Hunter got older and slower, he changed his approach because he had to. I don't think Buxton is there yet.

None of these guys has any place on the opening day roster. Not even close. With questions around each of them, the Twins should be committed to giving these prospects a better chance to prove they're ready. 200 PA or 10 starts is where I'd put the floor on when you might have a real feel for a player's with any question marks' readiness. Brooks Lee had question marks after his struggles in AAA in 2023, yet the Twins made the call for him after 136 plate appearances this year, and Lee was absolutely not ready. Rodriguez is certainly the leader in likelihood of getting the call to help the Twins first. He had 30 PA in AAA where his K rate was 40%. It's a SSSS, but his K rate has always been a major cause for concern on his ceiling. He needs some time to prove he can keep the K rate down at AAA, though Spring Training will likely give the Twins a nice sneak peek. Last year, Emma K'd in 54% of Spring Training plate appearances while people were calling for Matt Wallner's head as he K'd in 38%. While the Twins are likely to call for Rodriguez first, if he's hitting well, I hope they exercise some patience and let him get some playing time. Luke Keaschall missed everything after July of last year with Tommy John on his throwing arm, and he hasn't had a single plate appearance above AA, where hints of his ceiling were possibly starting to show. The expectation is Keaschall will be ready for a normal MiLB (mid-March) Spring Training timeline. People should keep in mind, a top 50 prospect would be considered a huge success if they turned into a 2 WAR player. I think the Twins will have Keaschall in AAA to start the year, but again, I wouldn't want to see him with the Twins until he's gotten at least 200 PA there. Raya has half a season of pitching more than 3.0 inning / 50 pitch starts in the last few years. He needs to prove he can handle an 80+ pitch workload for 5 or 10 starts. That's if he can get the performance, too. Prielipp is the site writer dark horse favorite to save the universe this year, it seems. The Twins shouldn't call him up until September next year, if at all. He's either a starter or he's not, and using him out of the bullpen pushes back the potential he could start for the Twins by a full year. Considering starters are 3-4x more valuable than relief pitchers, calling for Prielipp is settling way too early.

Span was underappreciated for years and years. He was a 3-4 WAR (borderline All Star) player through his career prime, and he accumulated a very respectable 27 / 28 WAR during his career. A career which would have been increased and expanded (see what I did there?) had he focused on keeping his speed up. Span's career WAR is right in line with some names people would definitely recognize like Josh Hamilton, Terry Steinbach, J.J. Hardy, and Justin Morneau. A very good player who was largely overlooked, though he did receive RoY-6 and an MVP vote in 2014 when he led the league in hits, and the Twins sure could use some prime Span on their roster defensively as Span often flirted with DRS +20, recorded a perfect 1.000 fielding pct season along with leading all of baseball with in RF/G and the league in putouts as a center fielder.

I think there's some serious potential on the 40 right now, but the front office hasn't been praiseworthy for what they've developed so far in my opinion. I love Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner, but at the end of the day, it's put up or shut up. So far, there just hasn't been much for the Falvey front office to hang their hat on from an MLB production standpoint.

A strong wave of talent has come up, eh? Top Falvey front office developed players (starting below AA in the org) by year. Postion Player, Pitcher 2024 - Matt Wallner 2.1, Bailey Ober 2.9 2023 - Eddie Julien 2.8, Bailey Ober 2.4 2022 - Ryan Jeffers 0.8, Jhoan Duran 1.5 2021 - Ryan Jeffers 1.2, Bailey Ober 0.9 2020 - Ryan Jeffers 0.4, Randy Dobnak 2019 - N/A, Randy Dobnak 0.8 2018 - N/A 2017 - N/A The 2.0+ WAR season guy behind the leaders is Lewis, oh, and Brent Rooker, just not with the Twins... No player developed in Falvey's 8 year history has ever produced a 3.0+ WAR season other than Brent Rooker, again, not with the Twins. Compared with his immediate predecessors in their 8 years prior. 2009-2016. 2016 - Brian Dozier 6.6, Kyle Gibson 1.3/Tyler Duffey 1.3 2015 - Brian Dozier 3.1, Kyle Gibson 2.8 2014 - Brian Dozier 4.5, Kyle Gibson 2.7 2013 - Brian Dozier 2.9, Andrew Albers 0.9 2012 - Ben Revere 2.1, Liam Hendricks -0.1 2011 - Ben Revere 1.5, Liam Hendricks 0.2 2010 - N/A 2009 - N/A You don't see guys with 2.0+ WAR seasons behind Dozier like Kepler, Sano, Hicks, and Rosario. Or future guys like Garver, Polanco, Arraez, Buxton, Rogers, Berrios, and Jax. In short, Falvey's front office, and everybody working under him hasn't been worthy of much praise.

...and yet the interested parties have yet to be identified at all. Glen Taylor is the only party I've seen as a likely potential buyer, and it sounds like the Timberwolves case arbitrators are hoping to get their wheels greased by unnecessarily dragging out the decision process or something. No ruling is expected now for a few months. Then again, the Twins operate like an intelligence agency for a reason I can't fathom so cloak and dagger is par for the course, even if there were interested parties already.

Not happening. I wouldn't even begin to dream of how this might work out.

Assuming the Twins package a prospect to unload Paddack's $7.5MM, they can roll with the grid above keeping Castro. I'd estimate the Twins at 87 wins provided whatever injuries happen aren't unexpected for the best players. Finishing 2nd or 3rd in the division. Maybe a 50% shot at the playoffs slotting in at 5th or 6th seed?

Not really. I expected Buxton to play 80 games for 3 WAR for example. I'm not forecasting based on full seasons because it's simply not going to happen under Baldelli. For Buxton at 4 WAR, I'm assuming 100 games.

I can understand why people don't want to trade Lopez, but I just did a middle of the road projection of the Twins standing pat in the winning foundation topic. 85 wins if the Twins stand pat with their current payroll cap $130MM and returning as many guys as they can (linked below). That was actually super close to where Fangraph's team model landed (.520% or like 84 wins). The roster I assembled above I'd project at 94 wins for the same price. The Twins have serious payroll restrictions, and the money to improve the roster has to come from someplace if the team has a serious expectation of making the playoffs. The Tigers (projected 81-81) have at least $50MM in payroll capacity to improve their roster. The Royals (projected at 83-79) have at least $20MM to spend. Both of those teams project to be better than the Twins by the end of FA without Minnesota making moves to improve. The other way to improve is to trade elite prospects like Walker Jenkins or Emmanuel Rodriguez, but the right trade scenario can be very difficult to find when you're talking about dumping that much prospect capital, and I don't think the Twins will make those moves. In regard to the message eating salary sends, it's one of probably 3 things. 1) Maybe the Twins want a better return for their player so they're willing to eat some contract. 2) The trade partner they're trading to doesn't have payroll capacity to add or 3) The Twins missed the mark on evaluating the talent a player had when they put the contracts on the books. Tons of teams are using the RSN collapse as an explanation to drop salary so finding willing trade partners willing to take on significant costs is going to be more difficult this season.

That's what I consider to be their ceiling if everything goes their way. It's unrealistic to expect more than a few guys to hit it, and more unrealistic to expect luck to just happen for only the best players. That's why I included a medium (expected) and low end. This is what we have right now. Are their substantially better options under the team control I can put there? I made an offseason plan which actually meddles with the roster the way I'd try to do things if you want to check it out:

While I think Gallen is the better of the two pitchers in any given year based on steady results, from an league perspective, I don't think the two pitchers are viewed substantially different. Over the past two years, Gallen's at 8.0 fWAR while Lopez is at 7.8 fWAR. In addition, Lopez owns superior velocity, K rates, and walk rates with some blame for the higher ERA owned by Lopez going to poor defense from the Twins. I do think Lopez's ceiling is probably viewed as higher, though again, expectations of middle of the road giving Gallen the edge. The premise behind the Gallen for Lopez trade on AZ's behalf is they stay the same while absorbing a relatively low amount of payroll and for that, they get to massively extend their window. The Twins use the payroll to improve their 2025 team at the risk of their window closing sooner. When it comes to Montgomery, I think their GM would do a happy dance. It wasn't just the results which dropped for Monty, he also lost velocity which impacted the quality of his stuff. Montgomery was also no longer locating his pitches as well, and hitters didn't chase as much. I would expect a location bounce-back, but the stuff, probably not as much. Projections expect Montgomery to be a 2 WAR full season pitcher while Lopez is projected at 4 WAR. Losing 2 WAR from a single rotation spot is a big impact, and the swing from absorbing $10MM of additional salary would mean cutting bait on Castro and Martinez in my model above. Overall, probably a loss of 6 wins in 2025. At that point, the Twins would be better off rebuilding entirely, IMO.

Even if Zoll was the lead negotiator, the issue was Falvey waiting too long to start pushing the trade. Sonny Gray's (+Francis Peguero) trade was Chase Petty. You're thinking of the Tyler Mahle acquisition, I suspect. Mahle cost Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnation-Strand and Steve Hajjar. There is no way Falvey (or Levine) didn't give Zoll guidelines and ranges of values and approve the final deals. Counting on any player to put in 150 games under Rocco "Platoonasaurus" Baldelli is stretching it.

The Twins don't negotiate with beer distributors. The Twins would negotiate with stadium concessions management companies like Delaware North, Aramark and Levy. Delaware North signed a long-term contract with the Twins back in 2017. Not sure what "long-term" means, though. It'd be pretty shocking if anything got shaken up in general operations, though. It's a lot less stressful to run things "business as usual" than to try and reinvent or grow the brand. Stamp "Approved" on the form.

Evaluating the Twins' current roster, excluding Castro who the Twins cannot afford without other moves looks about like this to me. Med WAR is if people just perform to expectations with expected playing time, etc. The danger is with top players missing time or performing poorly because they have a bigger impact on "expected" results. Position First Last Min WAR Med WAR Max WAR C Ryan Jeffers 1.5 2.0 3.0 1B Jose Miranda 1.5 2.0 2.5 2B Brooks Lee 0.0 1.0 2.0 3B Royce Lewis 1.0 3.0 6.0 SS Carlos Correa 2.0 4.0 5.0 LF Trevor Larnach 1.0 1.5 2.5 CF Byron Buxton 2.0 3.0 4.0 RF Matt Wallner 2.5 4.0 5.0 DH Edouard Julien 0.0 1.0 2.0 BC Christian Vazquez 0.0 0.5 1.0 Util Austin Martin 0.0 1.0 1.5 Util Micheal Helman 0.0 0.0 1.0 Util DaShawn Keirsey 0.0 0.5 1.0 Position Players 11.5 23.5 36.5 Position First Last Min WAR Med WAR Max WAR SP1 Pablo Lopez 2.0 3.0 4.0 SP2 Joe Ryan 1.0 2.0 3.0 SP3 Bailey Ober 1.0 2.0 3.0 SP4 Chris Paddack 0.0 0.5 1.0 SP5 Simeon WR 1.0 1.5 2.5 SP6 David Festa 1.0 1.5 3.0 SP7 Zebby Matthews 0.0 1.0 1.5 Rotation 6.0 11.5 18.0 Position First Last Min WAR Med WAR Max WAR RP1 Jhoan Duran 1.0 1.5 2.5 RP2 Griffin Jax 1.0 1.5 2.5 RP3 Brock Stewart 0.0 0.5 1.5 RP4 Cole Sands 0.5 1.0 1.5 RP5 Jorge Alcala 0.0 0.5 1.5 RP6 Kody Funderburk -0.5 0.5 1.0 RP7 Louie Varland -0.5 0.1 0.5 RP8 Michael Tonkin 0.0 0.2 0.5 RP9 Ronny Henriquez -1.0 -0.5 0.0 RP10 Matt Canterino 0.0 0.0 1.0 Bullpen 0.5 5.3 12.5 Total WAR 18.0 40.3 67.0 Replacement Team Wins at MLB 45.0 45.0 45.0 Total Team Wins Proj 63.0 85.3 112.0

Unfortunately, the Twins' marketing genius is Joe Pohlad, EVP Brand Strategy & Growth. It's clear Pohlad got his position through extreme nepotism. While St. Peter had a marketing and communications background from the 90s, where his skillset probably shined, he at least moved up through the ranks normally. Pohlad's constant foot-in-mouth antics along with poor instincts on the rebranding make it clear his skillset needed polishing. I get the feeling there was probably a lot of disagreement between St. Peter, Pohlad and Meka White Morris who became the Chicago Bears' EVP and Chief Revenue Officer. Nepotism and cronyism is a problem for the Pohlads.

This is huge, but cronyism is obviously a major component in these moves. Falvey strikes me as the type of communicator who is more careful with his words than a guy like St. Peter, but I question whether or not Falvey has the communication style and savvy to run the whole show. That said, it's pretty obvious Falvey is an excitable, younger guy who may be better equipped to understand the problems with the fan experience moving forward. I suspect the move is largely cost cutting from an administrative measure by the Pohlads; they've given up on the Twins' potential revenue streams increasing from attendance, and I believe they're in full sell mode. Falvey probably sees this as a huge opportunity to pad his resume. Dave St. Peter's contributions to the Twins have been numerous over the years, but he's not the leader the Twins needed, and his failure to adapt to the changing times led to this outcome. I hope he's able to enjoy the additional flexibility afforded by the changed role.

I don't see how trading Royce Lewis for prospects is a likely success for the Twins. Prospects don't usually turn out. That's the truth. Also, while the article opines the Twins are looking to get younger, Lewis' value is then mentioned specifically as a youth talent every trade partner would be seeking. Lewis is 25 years old, he won't turn 26 until mid next season, and he has 4 years of team control left. The Twins do not get any younger by moving him. I also think trading Lewis now would likely be selling short on him. Coming off a down year, Lewis athleticism has finally had finally been sapped by two blown ACLs and a severe quad strain, and the injuries themselves are cause for concern for anybody. Look at how Luis Robert, Jr's trade value has been impacted. If the Twins moved Lewis, it would have to be for something special, and even if they did get a haul, I would also lose any respect I still had for the Pohlads or Falvey. Lewis is more than his performance.

I think Eeles had an impressive run in AAA. At a glance, there's nothing which stands out as unsustainable, and he didn't have any slumps. July was wRC+ 120, August was wRC+ 140, and Sept was wRC+ 170. He took 12.7% BBs and he didn't K a lot at 14.6%. The batted ball profile (which is a little sketchy in the minors) is odd though. Line drive rate dropped to 19.9% at AAA, where his 50.6% ground ball rate was pretty extreme. The 29.5% fly ball rate also came with a very high 17.3% pop up rate. Then there was the weird avoidance of balls hit up the middle. Everything was either pulled or oppo. 40% pull / 20% center / 40% oppo is pretty wild. He's an odd one for sure, but he grades out pretty well defensively from the metrics I have, and he certainly torched pitchers as a 24 year old legit prospect.

Quotes from the Pohlads & Falvey which basically amount to payroll isn't going to be substantially cut, but it has a cap on it at last seasons number. Pohlad dodged and dodged and dodged the 2025 payroll question in an interview with Gleeman. There wasn't the typical "we have room for the right move" canned response. This is typical of what's being reported. https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/minnesota-twins-news/its-business-as-usual-for-twins-this-offseason-amid-ownership-uncertainty-01jbymp4xq6a

I tend to agree with @gmwannabe. The Rays are not a team which pays salary on outgoing players. Yandy Diaz is not a negative value player as it stands, either. He has substantial value. BaseballTradeValues has him at +15.4. If you're asking the Rays to eat $6MM more, it's going to come at a premium. Maybe $12MM of surplus value. First off, Christian Vazquez will be a target for the Rays. If the Twins eat $6MM of Vazquez and the Rays eat $6MM of Diaz, I think the deal could be made with the Twins tossing in Eddie Julien or Jose Miranda. Huge price to pay for 1 year of Diaz. If the Twins don't want to cover as much for Vazquez, Luke Keaschall is a prospect I could see going. Another big price. Don't forget, the deal would still require the Twins to clear $10MM more off the books to get to the $130MM cap, and without Vazquez's salary to clear, and Paddack's questionable value, Castro's potential to remain is almost certainly gone without another huge move. Also, Jose Miranda has 1,110 innings playing 1B as a professional. He's not a noob, and Julien has 257 innings there as a professional. Guys don't just play full time DH at a batting cage until they get to MLB. Carlos Santana, who was a catcher, only had 4.1 innings in MiLB at 1B before Cleveland decided to make him a regular at 1B.

First off, pitchers are unreliable in general. In general, there are about 150 pitchers per year with 70 innings pitched. If we extrapolate that out to pitchers with 300+ innings over the past 4 years, you get 133 (of course some weren't good enough to stick/retired/etc) There are 12 pitchers in all of MLB who've averaged 175 innings over the past 4 years. 1 in 11. There are 18 pitchers in all of MLB who've averaged 163 innings over the past 4 years. 1 in 7. There are 32 pitchers in all of MLB who've averaged 150 innings over the past 4 years. 1 in 4. In 2023, the Twins had the best rotation they've fielded since 2006. The rotation was expected to be Gray, Lopez, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan with first depth as Ober. 5/6 of the Twins top starters were considered injury prone with only Ryan being reliable. While Texas is certainly going to be looking for depth, desperate is still not a word I'd use. Their top 5 starters all look solid for performance.