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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    McCusker's results are starting to push the issue of a potential promotion, but he really does need to take more walks to demonstrate the plate discipline necessary to succeed at the MLB level. I'd like to see him stay in AAA for May before making a decision. Get close to 200 PA, where the sample size and regression starts getting closer to accurate. When it comes to Royce Lewis, I feel like he might stay in AAA a bit longer than I initially expected. He's really not hitting well so I think keeping him in St. Paul for another week to get a chance to tune up his timing might be needed.
  2. bean5302
    Who cursed Andrew Morris? WHIP, regression, pitches without elite movement, etc. 4.57 ERA vs. 3.33 FIP vs. 4.11 xFIP Game Logs. ERA vs. FIP vs. TD Hype Machine 0.00 vs. 2.47 vs. OMG, guaranteed Cy Young 2026! 0.00 vs. 3.47 vs. OMG, OMG, guaranteed Cy Young 2025!! 17.18 vs. 4.56 vs. Cut him some slack, it's all the defense's fault! Still #1 pitching prospect in MLB. 0.00 vs. 4.72 vs. See! He's back to elite ace! Guaranteed Cy Young 2026, trade Pablo Lopez! Morris 1337!!!! 9.00 vs. 1.72 vs. Who cursed Andrew Morris??????? Morris doesn't miss a ton of bats. Morris walks an average number of guys. Morris isn't an elite ground ball pitcher. Those factors combined hold Morris' stock back a bit. He's still a potential back end rotation arm, and that's great, but setting the sky high expectations is asking for an Icarus ending IMHO.
  3. bean5302
    Relative accuracy +0.7%, meaning the umpire was better than average. Only 3 pitches in the entire game were miscalled within human error limits. I generally give a pass to balls which were literally on the line.
  4. bean5302
    He's old, drafted out of college after his Junior season in 2021, and he fell to the 5th round after he got destroyed down the stretch for Mississippi State. His last 5 starts in the SEC amounted to only 16.2 innings allowing 25 earned runs. Now it's 4 years later, he's age 25 and in AA so he won't present a large radar cross section. Most good prospect college pitchers generally reach MLB in 2-3 years. MacLeod was delayed by a torn UCL and surgery that followed in 2022, but he doesn't have much draft or scouting pedigree, and his success has been limited. MacLeod's FIPs have been unimpressive in the minors. 2023 - a23 (A+) 4.45 2024 - a24 (A+) 4.33 2024 - a24 (AA) 4.11 2025 a25 (AA) 2.35 in 10.0 innings He came into this season with no real prospect status as he wasn't even on the top 30 for MLB. Fangraphs had him at #31 in the org. It's nice to see him getting some great results out of the gate, but it's a SSSS and the Twins chose to keep him in AA rather than AAA. It shows how he ranks organizationally.
  5. bean5302
    Luke Keaschall Looks totally legit at the MLB level from a production and tools standpoint.Walker Jenkins Injury prone, excellent hit tool, average power w/o room to fill out, corner OFConnor Prielipp Elite stuff, injury risk, control/command issues. Bullpen risk, but #1 starter potential.Charlee Soto Looks dominant in A+ already, multiple potential plus pitches, seems durable.Dasan Hill 4 pitch lefty, dominant out of the gate A-ball a19. Sky's the limit. Building a floor.Kyle DeBarge Hit/Power tools look good at A+, defensive results at SS dramatically improved.Kaelen Culpepper Hit tool great at the plate, limited power. Better at SS than expected. Could advance fast.Emmanuel Rodriguez Power tool not playing against polished pitchers. Injury prone. High risk.Marco Raya Good stuff, weak command, likely bullpen arm due to durability concerns.Andrew Morris High velo, but can't miss bats. Back end rotation ceiling, probable BP.Carson McCusker Huge power, but questionable contact/hit tool. Defensive liability in corner OF.Brandon Winokur All the athleticism, but bat may not play.Payton Eeles Great story and good hit tool. Below average power. Questions defensively. Bottom line, he was clearly overlooked due to size. Scouting reports continue to be questionably biased.Cory Lewis Middle relief ceiling.Gabriel Gonzalez Bat keeps improving, but limited overall ceiling/athleticism. Feels a bit like later career Eddie Rosario.Ricardo Olivar Twins desperate for catching, hampering progress with OF. No power, all hit tool in AA Rayne Doncon Good, not great tools across the board.CJ Culpepper No plus pitches so far, but looks like potentially a back end rotation piece.Eduardo Beltre Huge ceiling, but DSL numbers are sketchy to project.Daiber De Los Santos Billed as premium SS defense with great tools. Super young, but could pan out.
  6. bean5302
    He wanted to follow the trend of former Twins pitcher debuts after seeing Gibson's performance at Yankee Stadium.
  7. bean5302
    As I recall, there were a couple arguments somebody made about Julien leading off. Julien does see a lot of pitches so he can provide a lot of insight and data for other guys, but he's not swinging at the ones he should swing at and he is swinging at the ones he shouldn't. Personally, I think it's mental stress from the pressure to produce or be demoted fast, like he was last year. There's almost a desperation in his approach. Julien hasn't been great over the past 10-15 games, but he has been adequate despite his shortcomings. Gasper is worse as a lead off guy by any reasonable strategy one can imagine, I think.
  8. bean5302
    New owners: Make decisions based on fan experience and data rather than what your 30 year entrenched management or nephew thinks.
  9. bean5302
    Left him off my top 20 prospects partially due to how he was performing this year.
  10. bean5302
    Every pitcher gives up hard contact. Just not on every single ball they throw. I get the impression you're angry at the metric or phrases related to them "hard contact" or "exit velocity." Let me put it an old fashioned way. Pretty much every ball Paddack threw came rocketing back past him like a hypersonic missile. He just got really lucky the balls flew directly at players in the field.
  11. bean5302
    I've never been a fan of the "young for the level" stuff. Virtually every good prospect plays at a level where they're significantly younger than the competition. It's why prospects cease to be "prospects" at age 25. If the player had the talent and the drive to be successful at MLB, they'd almost certainly already have been called up by age 25. Experience can improve results a lot through polish, but it doesn't improve talent.
  12. bean5302
    Honestly, I think Julien could do with a change of scenery, but he could also do with a mental shift. It feels like he's pressing hard with the memory of last year's sudden demotion after being considered a core piece of the Twins 2 weeks earlier. He obviously knows Royce is just a few days away, and we're seeing a lot of the same stuff we saw last year when Julien got ice cold.
  13. bean5302
    THIS. Paddack got the results, but the problem is he looked like Greg Maddux pranking Kris Bryant out there. Every hit, Greg doesn't even look back "Warning track?" Paddack only managed 2 strike outs in 5 innings and he had an average 95.0mph exit velocity. Paddack wasn't fooling anybody at all. There was literally a 90% contact rate on balls outside the zone. It was like a home run derby out there when the batter gets out of the groove. Sending him back out to the mound would have been playing with fire in a very close, important game.
  14. bean5302
    Nice start by Paddack. Lots of balls in play, but managed to get excellent results. The Twins were up against good pitching tonight and the lineup struggled apart from France having a night he really needed. Julien looked pretty rough tonight. He's been more or less holding his own in production recently, but way, way too many at bats serving as a shoulder bat rack. 5 pitch strikeout not swinging at a single pitch in his 2nd at bat. The he swings at back to back pitches in/near the dirt after seeing the same pitch in the same target zone on the first pitch? It's the same pitch... it's not moving 12" more. I think Julien's feeling the pressure big time.
  15. bean5302
    Former top pick Chase Petty is getting his call up for the Reds. He'd been working on his pitches to increase his K rate starting last year. So far in 2025, it's started paying off. He's been averaging 96mph on his sinker this year. He's had some loud contact against him, and he's walked a few more guys to get to his 10.57 K/9 so far in AAA this year. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/04/reds-to-promote-chase-petty.html
  16. bean5302
    Gave up 5 home runs in 2.0 innings. He might have needed a little more tuning, LOL
  17. bean5302
    Keaschall had plenty of time to get out of the way, it was a pretty slow pitch, and it was a very unlucky hit on his back arm. Keaschall does not really crowd the plate relative to a lot of other players. For qualified batters 10% - 24.3" 25% - 26.5" Luke Keaschall - 26.7" 50% - 27.9" 75% - 29.8" 90% - 31.1" Keaschall may need to get a better action to get out of the way of the errant inside pitch. I also wouldn't be opposed to making HBP = 2 bases, but if we do that, batters who don't try to get out of the way should be automatically out as well.
  18. bean5302
    Not opposed to signing Canterino to a 2 year MiLB deal at all. If nothing else, it's a good place for Canterino to get top notch care and rehab while he recovers. I don't expect him to pitch competitively before the end of next year, but if he looks good, in September, I could see Canterino getting a shot in the 'pen in 2027.
  19. bean5302
    We're dealing with some really small sample sizes right now, but Lee's right handed swing is showing much faster than last year. Lee was 2024 RHB - 65 swings, 70.1mph 2025 RHB - 16 swings, 73.0mph 2024 LHB - 214 swings, 69.1mph 2025 LHB - 54 swings, 69.6mph Now, when you look at the chart, there's a pretty fair potential it's just a data point issue. Most of Lee's swings fall well under the dashed line suggesting there probably hasn't been a change in swing speed. Lee's been on fire lately in terms of hard hit and barrel rates with elite results despite below average bat speed. I don't think the power is sustainable, but Lee may be demonstrating more of his potential hit tool by laying off bad pitches this year. Last year, Lee's O-swing was a poor 36.9% while this year it's way down at only 24.4% (league average about 28%). He's swinging at pitches in the zone more as well up from 67.5% to 72.0%. This matters for a couple reasons. He's taking a strike looking much less, and he's been able to get ahead in the count a lot more so he's seeing better pitches to hit. If we look at the zones, Lee is doing a lot of damage in weird locations (outside the zone), and I just don't think it's sustainable without an improvement in results in the zone. That said, confidence can be a huge boost to a player. Royce Lewis was getting a lot of high end results he didn't really earn in his rookie season, but as the season went on a bit, his underlying performance kept improving a lot to the point where he was earning every bit of what he was producing. Here's hoping Brooks Lee will be able to build confidence off his results and improve his approach at the plate to drive results as the season progresses.
  20. bean5302
    Putting aside the coulda, woulda, shoulda stats to focus on real results, and looking at starters with 70+ innings (156 in 2024). 2024 ERA, Career ERA+ Pablo Lopez = 87th, 109 Joe Ryan = 55th, 107 Bailey Ober = 81st, 110 When it comes to comparing them to their peers in terms of how often they go out and give the Twins a quality start or even better yet, a start of 5.0+ innings with an ERA of 3.99 or better, Lopez is the best of the 3, though he falls into that #2 range historically. He wasn't good last year, and he's approaching 30 where things typically start a decline. We'll have to watch this year to see if he can bounce back from what was a rough season.
  21. bean5302
    Literally could have gotten Club Level seats at $23 including fees on SeatGeek on a beautiful day when I looked on the 22nd. It was sunny and like 65*. $60-75/ea for the poor season ticket holder who owned them.
  22. bean5302
    Are you advocating for the trade because you think he could bring a real haul back based on his league minimum salary, and more than 5 years of team control remaining? For sure, that's an enormous value, but it's also an enormous loss with limited control remaining over almost the entire current rotation. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober aren't better than #3's and Lopez is probably slipping from his #2 status. Festa's ceiling is probably as good as any of them.
  23. bean5302
    The weather was way better this year. Fans are apathetic like they haven't been since pre-contraction. We're sick of the Pohlads. We're sick of empty stadiums. We're sick of poor play. We're sick of watching a manager fumble the games away. We're sick of a front office obsessed with every cheap re-tread shiny object they see. We're sick of terrible marketing. We're sick of a team that caters to 4 year olds. We're sick of a team that distances the fans from the product. We're sick of paying for season tickets that are available at 1/2 to 1/3 face. We're sick of Delaware North. We're sick of $25 parking. We're sick of it all.
  24. bean5302
    Really great start by Joe Ryan! Those are the kinds of starts which give credibility to the overzealous "dark-horse Cy Young" folks. Though I don't believe Ryan will have a lot of those, the Twins need a couple guys to step up and deliver outstanding performances now. It's great seeing a 3 hit performance, and even an extra base for Correa, and a couple more hits for Larnach. With Buxton on a tear lately, Correa's bat coming around is still critical for the team this year. The Twins managing to win some games with small ball, and without accidentally kicking balls around the field is nice.
  25. bean5302
    Radke remains one of the most overlooked Twins. People do not realize how elite he was, and I believe Radke's efforts to get Carl Pohlad to spend money and buy into the team was a major reason the Twins weren't contracted. They overlook him being #2 in Twins pitching bWAR all time just behind Blyleven, far above guys like Santana and Kaat.
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