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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Defensive metrics are worthless in the sample size you're referencing. Larnach's UZR/150 was -6.8 in LF last year across 466 innings. He's +20.7 UZR/150 this year in 247 innings. Larnach is not a plus defender and he almost certainly never will be. Even with his added step this year, he's still just a tick below average for speed in LF and he doesn't have a strong arm. Maybe... Byron Buxton might be +20.7 UZR/150 across a full season in LF, but I'm willing to wager nobody believes Larnach is a better outfielder than a healthy Byron Buxton.
  2. bean5302
    Kepler is a solid starting RF. He's already produced 2.1 bWAR and 2.0 fWAR this year. He's ranked 11th of the top 30 right fielders with 350+ plate appearances this year. I remember all the whining and complaining about Kepler from earlier this year when his detractors were convinced there was no way Kepler was going to reach 2 WAR this season (2.0-3.0 WAR is where a full season Kepler lives year in and out). Well, he's already there. Kepler is an average to above average every day right fielder. He's valuable as a trade asset because he has surplus value over his inexpensive contract, and if the Twins keep him, he's not the problem for the team's struggles.
  3. bean5302
    Supposedly they made it retroactive so he could be back this next weekend. I have zero faith in the Twins trainers or evaluations right now, though.
  4. bean5302
    Broken toe -> Leg contusion -> Wrist sprain This training staff needs to go.
  5. bean5302
    Entrust and rely upon Trevor Larnach to be the primary starter in left field or DFA and release him. There's a pretty big gap between those two things. A little "gray" area in there, if you will.
  6. bean5302
    I watched the play over and over and over and debated taking multiple images to post up or even creating an animated .gif, but as you say, you've already made your decision. The difference is mine is based on watching the play. Your decision was made because you're angry.
  7. bean5302
    Sounds like Polanco won't be coming back in the near future. I'd think he's still at least a week out now. The good news is Buxton and Polanco won't have to push themselves to get back if the Twins lose a couple more to Cleveland. White Sox need the Twins to win a couple against the Guardians or the White Sox's season is probably over as well. A Cleveland & Detroit sweep probably just about locks up the division for the Guardians.
  8. bean5302
    That was a damn tough call on Gordon getting an error there. Running away from first to field the ball, pivoting 120*, throwing off balance while still running and the throw didn't beat the runner anyway. When the ball hits the glove at 1B, the runner's foot was on the bag already as shown in the image. Not a routine play. I would have scored it an infield hit.
  9. bean5302
    Again a shot at Gary Sanchez, who has always been a better hitter than Jeffers across his career. Since 8/1 .237/.306/.392 OPS .698 wRC+ 101 Not sure why people keep thinking Jeffers is good at hitting. 2021 = wRC+ 84 2022 = wRC+ 93
  10. bean5302
    Nothing wrong with a Nick Punto as a utility guy, but Nick Punto could pay defense.
  11. bean5302
    It's MLB options the front office is obviously trying to protect, not service time. The front office had no good reason not to call up Varland and Wallner before September 1st and make them eligible for the playoffs, only to call them up a few days or a couple weeks later once an option wouldn't be used.
  12. bean5302
    Perhaps you're not aware of this, but Rocco Baldelli has a binder of printed spreadsheets created by FedEx Office before every game delivered to the dugout. The paper is harvested from illegally poached, rare California Redwoods because the paper they create is also water resistant from his sweaty palms and fingers. It takes 2 - 50 foot tall redwoods to make one binder because Rocco rejects most of the wood he inspects, and if he suspects his secret harvesting location has been compromised, he lights another "wildfire" to cover it up. Baldelli's printed spreadsheets are the biggest cause of California's de-forestation problems. It's also why most of the pitchers take so long. Rocco literally has to flip through hundreds of pages to see what pitch to throw and where to throw it at what count, then relay it with hand signs to the catcher who relays it to the pitcher.
  13. bean5302
    Martin definitely just going for the added playing time. Julien will be interesting if he's being sent there for defensive play. It's no guarantee he'd be playing positions the Twins would like him to get more experience playing. Having Isola take some steps forward would be huge for the organization so thin at catcher.
  14. bean5302
    You watched all of them and know they were drops rather than throwing errors, right? He also has 2 errors in his last 68 games, both fielding. His only fielding errors this year. Every single other error this year (none in the past 68 games) has been a throwing error. Billy Hamilton, again, is not an MLB caliber player. He's barely good enough to play at AAA.
  15. bean5302
    Not service time. Options and talking about why Wallner wasn't called up earlier rather than now. Varland and Wallner (if he was called up today) wouldn't be eligible for the playoffs no matter how well they play. Considering how badly the Twins needed an outfielder and a bat (they went out and got... Billy Hamilton), Wallner would have been a reasonable choice just like Varland was a reasonable choice considering how badly they needed a starter. Instead, the Twins waited until the month turned over so they wouldn't burn an option.
  16. bean5302
    Where have we heard it before? Every single year nobody stepped up in the AL Central... so pretty much every year in recent times.
  17. bean5302
    I said Polanco could be back "any day now" and Buxton is right behind him. The Guardians series was 5 games and runs through Monday, but I simply counted the games forgetting about the double header. I thought it ran longer. In any case, Buxton won't be back for Cleveland. He won't be traveling with the team.
  18. bean5302
    I was at the game. Billy Hamilton is a AAA player. Hamilton is a total and complete utter black hole at the plate. One of the worst hitters in the history of MLB. I'd rather have Matt Wallner in the lineup playing shortstop than Billy Hamilton in the lineup playing center field.
  19. bean5302
    Right. I'd rather have Gilberto Celestino and Billy Hamilton taking Matt Wallner's at bats.
  20. bean5302
    I didn't say anything about "this weekend" We have 5 games in a row against the Guardians. Buxton will not be back this weekend. Quite frankly, if the Twins lose 3 or 4 games in a row, I think the Twins will shut down a bunch of guys for the year instead of trying to rush them back.
  21. bean5302
    Right, I get that. Just DFA him in 2020, then. It's not enough money to be concerned about. It's only an issue if the front office allowed Dobnak to take up a 40 man roster spot when he shouldn't have. That's it. 2019 = $125k 2020 = $173k 2021 = $700k 2022 = $800k Dobnak was making league minimum until next year and he had options. This is making a mountain out of a molehill.
  22. bean5302
    I don't see the same struggles. I just see some rough luck when Wallner started off in AAA. He was still taking walks and his K rate didn't skyrocket or something. We're talking about Wallners first 10 games just being rough on the balls finding openings. As the plate appearances have piled up, Wallner has shown off his arm, his surprising (and poorly documented) speed and his power. Why haven't the Twins called him up? They wanted to manipulate his options. Same as Varland.
  23. bean5302
    Polanco is expected to return any day now. Buxton is supposedly right behind him. Both could be back against the Guardians from the last news I saw.
  24. bean5302
    This stretch of 5 games against the Guardians may well decide the Twins' season. The Twins are 4.0 games back of Cleveland and 1.0 games back of Chicago. If the Twins were to sweep the Guardians (exceedingly unlikely), they'd almost certainly be in the division lead. If the Twins were to get totally swept, they'd be 10 games back and fried extra crispy. How I like my chicken... not my favorite MLB team. 1-4, Twins are 1% playoff potential. 2-3, Twins are 5-10% playoff potential. 3-2, Twins are 20-30% playoff potential. 4-1, Twins are 30-50% playoff potential. 5-0, Twins are 50%-70% playoff potential. There's a range because of what the White Sox might do in addition to the Guardians. In order to give the team a good shot at winning the division, the Twins really need to take 4 of 5 here.
  25. bean5302
    I should note, the wheels fell off Wells recently and Baddoo and Wade have been largely useless this year.
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