bean5302

+1 runs = 0.1 WAR. Let's put that into perspective. Catcher blocking = +1 or 0.07 per game (ranks 19th BaseballSavant) Blocks above average Easy +1, Medium +1, Tough -1 He's basically average-ish at blocking pitches/preventing wild pitches. Caught stealing? 20%. MLB Average = 22%, and teams aren't holding back in trying. When it comes to catching runners at 2B, he's been good (not great) at 33% (Ranks 10th +2 BaseballSavant). The problem is he's missed catching a runner at 2B while runners at 3B were just waiting to steal home... and it's happened multiple times this year resulting directly in runs against the Twins. He's basically average-ish at controlling the run game. His techniques are good (pop/transition), his arm is not. Catcher framing he's again, average-ish. He's at +1 (ranks 18th BaseballSavant) or +1.8 (ranks 9th at Fangraphs), having a mix of better/worse than average zones. That's to be expected as Vazquez is short. Unexpectedly, he's not getting the low calls this year. Generally, tall catchers get the high calls, short catchers get the low calls (see Freddy Ferman). Catcher framing isn't particularly repeatable from year to year, either. A big component of catcher framing seems to be related to a catcher's physical size (height). He's basically been better than average (not close to the top) at catcher framing if you consider it a skill or repeatable. Game calling. I tend to not care for rCERA. It's not repeatable. Last year, Vazquez was -3 (one of the worst in MLB), this year +1 as of right now 12:01pm at 5/10/24 on Fangraphs.com, though Vazquez does appear to have a trend of being slightly above average. Of the 49 catchers who've caught at least 100 innings this year, Vazquez ranks 9th at +1. Except +1 is from 9th-19th. Meaning the difference between the 9th best catcher and the 19th best catcher is less than 1, which is less than 0.1 WAR. It's just not a relevant stat when it comes to evaluating player value because it doesn't move the needle at all. Vazquez's minimal defensive value over an dead average catcher doesn't remotely offset his black hole production at the plate.

Cron didn't disappear, he's been playing as a regular until this season. He's just consistently been a free agent veteran high floor kinda guy.

Last 15 games for Carlos Santana. .245/.322/.509 OPS .830 wRC+ 133 Last 15 games for Kyle Farmer .269/.345/.423 OPS .768 wRC+ 122 Last 15 games for Manuel Margot .161/.182/.226 OPS .408 wRC+ 13 Last 15 games for Willi Castro .383/.403/.683 OPS 1.087 wRC+ 206 <--- has options Last 15 games for Trevor Larnach .367/.418/.592 OPS 1.010 wRC+ 186 <--- has options Last 15 games for Jose Miranda .300/.340/.480 OPS .820 wRC+ 134 <--- has options Last 15 games for Austin Martin .227/.292/.364 OPS .656 wRC+ 90 <--- has options Last 15 games for Alex Kirilloff .140/.208/.233 OPS .441 wRC+ 28 <--- has options When I look at players who could potentially be cut, I look for guys who are being used as situational players who are used as defensive replacements, pinch runners, platoon guys. Santana isn't part of that mix. Margot is clearly the most likely to get DFA/released, but I think Austin Martin and Alex Kirilloff are both more likely to be optioned. While Wallner's numbers are looking better over the past handful of games, he's still not taking walks. After how unimpressive he was through Spring Training, and how absolutely lost he was at the plate for the first month of the regular season, he's probably going to need to rake and show plate discipline for a solid 100 PA before he might earn a recall if there aren't other developments. Larnach came into the season as injury depth for the Twins, but as a potential role player for some teams. He's surprisingly raking right now on his last option which could really boost his value if he keeps it up so Wallner has an extra logjam in front of him at this point.

Vazquez has provided value in the same way a AA or AAA catcher promoted to MLB would technically provide value. He's a black hole at the plate, but average-ish defensively.

I agree with Chief here. Martin was way late on making the call, and Julien can't watch Martin for a signal while he's he's back tracking the ball. Julien was in a far better position to make that play, Martin lacked situational awareness there.

Miranda will likely move to DH in my opinion since Santana has been hitting well over the past couple weeks. Not sure how the Twins will handle the roster crunch, but Austin Martin is the most likely to be demoted IMHO.

I don't know what "ramping it up" means? Lewis started hitting off the tee and doing fielding work 2 weeks ago along with his running progressions including sprinting. I doubt he's too far from a rehab assignment right now.

Playoff caliber teams. But apart from that, WAA/WAR is a pretty poor choice because it doesn't give you expected performance in game starts. It gives you performance over time/games pitched so by your method a 4.50 ERA pitcher with 600 innings has more value than a 3.00 ERA pitcher with 100 innings. I'd rather have the previously injured ace starting in the playoffs.

Texas Rangers rotation last year for the World Series. Nathan Eovaldi $17MM Jordan Montgomery $25MM Max Scherzer $43MM Andrew Heaney/Dane Dunning. Those top 3 guys are not back end starters.

Lots of praise for Lopez, but he didn't look sharp to me. He got outs he needed, and the Mariners couldn't string anything together, but a lot of that appeared to be luck based. Also not a fan of bringing Funderburk back out for the second inning again as he just doesn't seem to be cut out for going back to the mound after a break in the action. I don't have a great angle on home plate pitches, but it seems like Jeffers could have caught more than half the pitches after the 6th inning with his glove rather than letting them all bounce off the backstop to get it done, but it's hard to be terribly critical with the way he's been hitting. Jeffers just continues to crush baseballs, and while his xwOBA swears he's getting extremely lucky, it's his K rate which is most impressive to me. It's nothing like it used to be. Jeffers is only striking out in 17.5% of plate appearances this year. For a guy who has a career K rate near 30%, it's certainly eye opening. This team just always seems to have a spark waiting to happen. That catch by Correa off Miranda's glove was really fun to watch. Talk about awareness and concentration!

He's an absolute lock for Twins HoF. Any player who sticks with the team and is a regular player for 5 years is enshrined. Virtually a guarantee since the Twins have so very rarely actually held on to players more than 5 years throughout history. Once a player nears free agency, they've always been traded. That's how guys like Cuddyer get added.

So you're saying no discussions, speculation, analysis? Personally, digging into this kind of stuff is interesting, and Kirilloff's overall track record is getting pretty long now. 818 PA .254/.313/.416 OPS .729 wRC+ 102.

Kirilloff's tough to gauge. If he's at the .750 end of the spectrum, he'd probably be like short timer Nomar Mazara, but if he can hit at a .780 level, he'd be more like low cost journeyman for bad teams, CJ Cron. A lot may depend on whether or not teams reconsider Kirilloff as a viable corner OF as his defense at 1B has been rough and his bat honestly doesn't play at DH, IMHO. Brandon Belt is way better than Kirilloff so they're not comparable, but do keep in mind he's now a36, and I think the expectation around the league was Belt was going to be looking for a contract in the $10-12MM AAV range. A lot of fans want 2023 Kirilloff to return, I just don't buy his .374 BABIP against RHP last year. Kirilloff has a much better likelihood of being a consistent starter if he's playing outfield where a .750 OPS, and average defense can push his WAR to 1.5-2.0.

Cannot fathom the number of blackmail pics Margot must have on the front office and Baldelli. I'll be at the game today in the sun so it should be warm enough.

He has not been a #2-3. Ryan has been a #4. Career ERA / FIP / xFIP coming into this year? 4.05 / 4.01 / 4.01 For playoff caliber teams Ace = 0.00-3.40 #2 = 3.41-3.69 #3 = 3.70-3.94 #4 = 3.95-4.19 <--- Joe Ryan #5 = 4.20-4.49 Something like that.

I think Kirilloff will be just fine. Over a full year, I'd expect him to be in that .750-780 OPS range. About 10-15% better than league average vs. RHP like his career has shown. Kirilloff doesn't walk a ton and he hits a lot of line drives instead of fly balls. That'll mean his OBP will be good, not great, and his SLG will be good, not great.

The Twins did not "develop" Joe Ryan. He's been largely the same pitcher as he was when they got him. He was a MLB-ready pitcher with an excellent fastball and questionable breaking/offspeed stuff. He's the same as he was. The Twins have tinkered here and there with Ryan, changing his pitch mix, and it usually takes scouting reports a couple months to catch up to whatever the Twins added. Then batters tee off on Ryan. That's been the historical M.O. Maybe this year's tinkering will work out? The Twins may have stumbled into a recipe for success with SWR, but it took them years to get it done on a pitcher who was acquired and was thought to be near MLB ready at the time. If Woods-Richarson is able to fully develop into a mid-rotation pitcher, the Twins will get some credit there. Cleveland was known for great pitching, and while that pitching didn't necessarily come from a draft/development pipeline model, young, effective, cost controlled starting pitching was the hallmark of the franchise, and it doesn't take a genius to connect the dots. The Twins' front office had been relatively successful at developing position players. Kepler, Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Polanco, and Hicks were all previous regime draft/signings who had developed into MLB players. The Twins had not been successful at developing pitchers post 2006's Francisco Liriano. SPs Gibson and Berrios came from Smith/Ryan as well, but Berrios wasn't ready yet and Gibson never developed into the ace the organization and fans hoped to see. Pretty thin pickings. Pitching had been the reason the Twins had been struggling. There are ways to be competitive without a draft/development pitching pipeline, but for a small or mid market team, controllable, relatively inexpensive starters is required. You can trade for MLB ready guys (Joe Ryan) or you can trade for prospects and finish them (Woods Richardson) or develop them (Duran). The problem with the approach is the risk tolerance. High ceiling starting pitching prospects are extremely expensive so if your organization isn't successful at developing them, you burn all your prospect/player capital quickly, and in order to maintain your team, your payroll skyrockets to levels which cannot be sustained (see 2024 Twins). As of right now, there is ONE SINGLE MLB caliber starting pitcher Falvey's regime has developed in 7 years on the job. Bailey Ober. Unsustainable.

I read that only I didn't take the reckless leap you did because: A) I wasn't there. B) I didn't hear the exchange, tone, inflection. C) It was a corroboration of a statement by a woman. D) I don't know about DSP's relationship with Meka. E) Reckless statements like the one you made are self-centered serving the purpose of signaling your virtue at the cost of possibly unfairly damaging the reputation and life of another human being.

Where you predicted part of the reason she left the Twins was because DSP was awkward and inappropriate about women even though you hadn't read that? That's certainly how I read your comment.

What an absolutely reckless statement.

Non issue. Pitcher who leaves the game with the lead after coming into the game tied or losing gets the win. If you want to fix it, remove the win stat altogether. Problem solved. Nobody gets a win or a loss. Guess the starter can get "holds" then.

That's all great... is there a blackout at the stadium, too? Pretty sure the Twins can still how ads on the scoreboard, but it's probably more effective if fans actually attended the games.

It is to an extent. The Twins jersey numbers and text having only one "clean" color with the color matching thread on the uniforms is a disaster. The numbers and text look flat, and like cheap as hell iron-on stickers because there is no depth without outlining the letters with contrast. Joe Pohlad's design team creating a uniform like a mobile app is the problem here. Have you seen the powder blues? They'd be passable without the ugly giant Cooperstown emblem.

So far, so good! I was a big proponent of SWR years ago before his inability to replicate his mechanics sank his ship. The biggest problem I have from his struggles with mechanical issues for 7 years. It's smacks of arrogance and laziness to me. Like a player who refuses to keep themselves in shape until their game suffers. Woods-Richardson has had bouts of dominant pitching in the past so it'll take a couple months before I buy in. In the meantime, I'll continue to root for him, and hope he's turned the corner.

I'd imagine his leash is very long at this point. How could it not be without the Twins having any legitimate starters pushing Woods-Richardson? Woods-Richardson sticking in the rotation also wipes a lot of egg off Falvey's face from the Berrios transaction in a year where Falvey is on the hot seat in the final year of his contract.