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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    If Buxton isn't hurt, there's no reason to sit him. Get the games out of him you can when you can. The idea you can rest a guy constantly is just Baldelli trying to re-write his own injury ended career through giving his current players more rest. Not unexpectedly, it hasn't worked out.
  2. bean5302
    Side note, I don't think anybody hates Carlos Santana. Fans hate the fact Falvey decided to bring him in when there were two internal options for 1B who were expected to be as good or better for essentially the league minimum when the Twins were in a payroll crunch.
  3. bean5302
    I'm always amazed by people who start tooting their own horn after a two week hot streak by a guy who's barely been worth a roster spot 3 of the past 4 years and is now 38 years old, especially when the guy still isn't even league average at the plate on the year. For the record, he came in hitting .203/.282/.383 OPS .665 wRC+ 89 at 1B. He's just now cracked positive WAR. Let me know when Santana's numbers get better than Miranda's...
  4. bean5302
    Kyle Farmer last 15 games coming into today: .269/.345/.423 OPS .768 wRC+ 122. 10.3% BB, 20.7% K rate. Horrible start, but he's been solid the past couple weeks.
  5. bean5302
    I thought it was a common opinion Margot was in significant decline, and that it was dubious he'd provide value? It doesn't take some sort of human savant to know Margot had lost a lot of speed or that he was showing a major decline in his defensive value. A quick visit to Fangraphs and BaseballSavant.com reveals those patterns, along with his evaporation of plate discipline, too. He didn't hit lefties for beans last year, either. I think the dead horse has been revisited for a thorough beating at least 2x a week for the past couple of months in regard to the trade, but pretending the acquisition of Margot was a popular move or that it was hard to predict Margot was likely cooked is a new argument I was unaware of.
  6. bean5302
    Baldelli being unable to manage a pitching staff is still his problem. Also, I don't know what game(s) you're referencing? Funderburk's been asked to pitch multiple innings roughly half the time this year. He certainly isn't the last guy standing every game, and I'm not aware of any games where there weren't other options.
  7. bean5302
    Dominant start by Ober, and the best game he's pitched in his career. 0.00 ERA, 0.00 FIP, 0.89 xFIP. 50% K, 0% BB I can't imagine Kirilloff is injured and Baldelli is somehow forcing him out there when there are so few injuries for position players at the moment. I expect Kirilloff is just not the elite bat people wanted him to be, and he's slumping right now. With his limited defensive versatility, Kirilloff is definitely putting himself on the short list to St. Paul when Lewis and Buxton come back.
  8. bean5302
    I'm not too excited about Keirsey right now. He's 27 and his bat has slowly moved forward through the years as his experience has piled on. Last year, he was below average at AAA (Martin was above average) and while this year Keirsey's numbers look better, they're being fueled by an ISO that's pretty wildly out of line with expectations. Honestly, he looks like an Andrew Stevenson type to me. I don't think his floor or ceiling is any higher than Martin's. Stevenson might be a good pinch runner or defensive replacement, but I have my doubts his bat will play.
  9. bean5302
    Willi Castro will move to CF since they'll want him playing regularly. Not that Buxton won't probably beat Lewis back anwyay.
  10. bean5302
    I can only assume the Twins have determined Raya's shoulder can't handle a starter's workload. He lost all of 2021 to a shoulder strain, and then he was slowed down in 2023 by shoulder tightness. I think Raya is probably in that Josh Winder category for durability, and the Twins have recognized it's probably going to be an issue going forward so they're looking to find out where the durability runs out and the shoulder starts bothering him.
  11. bean5302
    SWR was held responsible for 5 runs, though he was only pitching for 4 of them. Looked to me like Simeon was having a hard time throwing strikes, but the velocity was there anyway. Just seemed like regression to the mean as his ERA was 1.74, but his xFIP was 3.69 coming into the game. If Jackson looks like he's 42 on the mound, I'd rather have him at 2B. Word is #42 was a pretty good infielder.
  12. bean5302
    Funderburk... if Baldelli will quit sending him out for another inning. Baldelli's usage of bullpen arms has really irked me. Alcala's been good, though he got rocked in his second inning of pitching on May 7th.
  13. bean5302
    Raya is going to be a long reliever/opener and Twins fans should probably get used to that concept. The Twins don't allow him to get to 60 pitches anymore. 56 pitches max this year, 54 pitches max last year.
  14. bean5302
    Pitch to contact. Somewhere Rick Anderson is kicking his dogs around the house... hahaha
  15. bean5302
    There's also just a totally different viewpoint in the game. Why have a pitcher throw a complete game when they're tired when you can bring in a stud reliever who's fresh and gives you a better chance to win? 60 years ago it was 47 complete games. It's also interesting that over those decade markers no pitcher ever appeared in two lists. I suspect most people in Twins Daily would consider Jim Kaat to be an ace, but he was actually a swingman, and never the best starter on the team for that matter. Nostalgia and reputation makes fan favorites into superstar producers and classic musclecars into the pinnacle of 1/4 mile performances.
  16. bean5302
    Woods Richardson is not a prospect, IMHO. He's got 3-4 starts before he drops off the prospect lists as beyond rookie status for next year. If he can keep his mechanics in order, he should be good. If his mechanics fall out of order (which has happened repeatedly over the past 3 years the Twins have been coaching him), he'll fail.
  17. bean5302
    I think you have a personally adjusted viewpoint of what an "Ace" was. All pitchers threw tons of innings in the very old days, but it's been exceptionally uncommon to see complete games over the past 20 years. 10 years ago the Twins had 2 complete games. Hughes (1), Nolasco (1). 20 years ago the Twins had 4 complete games. Santana (1), Radke (1), Silva (1), Lohse (1). 30 years ago the Twins had 6 complete games. Tapani (4), Erickson (2). 40 years ago the Twins had 32 complete games. Viola (10), Smithson (10), Butcher (8), Schrom (3), Williams (1). 50 years ago the Twins had 43 complete games. Blyleven (19), Decker (11), Goltz (5), Albury (4), Corbin (1), Butler (2), Hughes (1) I recognize 2 of the 7 names that threw complete games for the Twins in 1974. An ace, IMHO, is a guy who comes in and gives your team an excellent chance to win the game almost every time they take the ball. Like 80% of the time, they give a team 6+ innings and leave the game with an ERA under 4.00. When a pitcher steps onto the mound and you can automatically expect your team will win the game. That's an ace. If you're asking whether or not we'll see a return to 85mph fastballs and 300 inning pitchers, the answer is no. Not ever.
  18. bean5302
    No challenge for the Twins this year. Things will come back down to Earth for the other opponents. Batters wRC+ MIN 108 (9th) CLE 103 (13th) KCR 97 (20th) DET 90 (24th) CHW 73 (30th) Starters FIP KCR 3.52 (5th) DET 3.54 (7th) MIN 3.59 (8th) CLE 4.41 (24th) CHW 4.57 (26th) Bullpen FIP CLE 2.65 (1st) MIN 3.56 (10th) DET 3.89 (14th) KCR 4.15 (19th) CHW 4.98 (28th) Honestly, with the loss of Bieber, Cleveland is cooked IMHO. Even if their bullpen has been great so far, their starters are struggling and Twins fans know how that works out over the long haul. Relievers wear down. With their best hitter out of the lineup for the next month, and some expected regression, I just don't think Cleveland has the long term horsepower to get it done. The Tigers should just DFA/release Javier Baez. He's really hurting that team. I think they're the most dangerous of the teams in the AL Central, but unless something changes, I think they'll keep declining over the season.
  19. bean5302
    The thing is, if you start looking at Larnach's weaknesses in terms of pitch selection and how you can attack him, Larnach is seeing fewer fastballs and more offspeed/breaking stuff than ever and he's hitting well right now. Still way too much noise in the numbers, but if you start looking at how he's fared over the years, there is a trend of him getting better. I took the BaseballSavant pitch values, adjusted them for the expected number of pitches Larnach would see in the course of a 150 game season and applied a gradient. Last year, Larnach seemed to start clicking with holding his own against enough pitches to be viable. This year, he's made a lot more contact across the strike zone. I don't think Larnach can get any perceived boost to his value before 200-300 plate appearances this year, and I think the Twins are likely going to find a way to give Larnach the opportunity do just that unless he struggles for a while. I don't think Larnach's leash is that long, but if he keeps hitting, it's in the Twins best interest to keep giving him plate appearances.
  20. bean5302
    Varland's had excellent results at AAA so he's likely earn another shot when one of our pitchers inevitably needs a 15 day IL trip sometime this year, but unless his pitches improve in regard to movement or he's able to locate better, don't think his stuff will play as a starter at the MLB level.
  21. bean5302
    Looking at the Twins' schedule and runs produced over their 37 games. 4, 5, 0, 2, 7, 2, 1, 2, 3, 3, 2, 11, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2, 4, 4, 1, 7, 6, 6, 6, 5, 16, 11, 3, 6, 10, 5, 3, 2, 3, 6, 6, 11 If you assume games with less than 4 runs is a loss, 4 runs is 50/50, and more than 4 runs is a win, the Twins would be 19-18 on the year. First 10 games 29 runs (2.9 runs), 3-7 Next 10 games 38 runs (3.8 runs), 3-7 Next 10 games 71 runs (7.1 runs), 9-1 Next 7 games 36 runs (5.2 runs), 4-3 Mean: 4.43 runs per game Median: 4.00 runs per game Mode: 3.00 runs per game It's not as wild as last year, but the most commonly scored number of runs in a game is still 3. The big breakout games are still responsible for a lot of the actual run production on the team. Luckily, the pitching has been better than I anticipated it would be allowing the Twins to win a couple extras. The offense just looks like it's springing back thanks to Castro, Farmer, Santana, etc bouncing back from horrible slumps. It's good news they're not all looking permanently cooked like Margot.
  22. bean5302
    It was wRC+ 112 a couple weeks ago :p That said, yeah, I think Kirilloff is probably a little below league average if he's not platooned, and a little above league average if he is platooned. That's probably just who he is. Right now, he owns a career fWAR of 0.4 in 818 plate appearances and 225 games, but a lot of fans have been pulling his bandwagon out of the mud for years to keep riding it.
  23. bean5302
    Accuracy vs. consistency. It's been part of the game for the pitcher and hitter to be able to identify the strike zone, and as I pointed out just a minute ago in a Vazquez article, catcher physical dimensions seems to have a pretty major impact on balls/strikes called because umpires can't see through catchers. A consistent strike zone means more to me than an accurate strike zone. In the ump scorecard posted above, the umpire was 96% consistent calling balls/strikes. Robo umps aren't perfect right now as camera angles and locations vary a bit from stadium to stadium, and hitters vary their batting stances a bit.
  24. bean5302
    Just put Jeffers in Center Field. It's called "positional flexibility" and the Twins are all about it!!! Jeez. Get with the times...
  25. bean5302
    www.baseballreference.com www.spotrac.com
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