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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Correa does not need $300MM to win. Or $200MM for that matter. He doesn't need $35MM AAV. All he needs to do is beat 2 years and $70MM with an AAV in the $25MM+ range and he wins. Correa takes 5-6 years $150-175MM long, long, LONG before he he'd take another $35MM 1 year contract with a 1 year player option. He'll get that. Story and Baez got 6yrs $140MM and they were a much lower ranked target than Correa. Again, in the absolute worst case scenario, Correa signs another contract to the exact terms the Twins accepted and Correa gets another year guaranteed. There is just no world in which Correa doesn't do as well or better than his contract with the Twins today. The narrative Correa has only 2 options: opt in or opt out and desperately seek an unlikely long term deal at $35MM AAV+ is ludicrous.
  2. bean5302
    Bundy's ERA is 8.53 TTO? Well, since he's only pitched 12.2 innings during TTO it's a pretty small sample. More interestingly, his FIP is 2.49 and xFIP is 2.96 on TTO this year. Tough to say what would have happened, all I know is Rocco pulled him early again and the bullpen, again, immediately gave up runs.
  3. bean5302
    You don't need inside information to recognize the extreme risk for no reward Correa gets for exercising his player option.
  4. bean5302
    He's TWENTY SEVEN right now. 27. A year older? Sure, why not use his player options for the next couple years and hit the market at age 30? Yeah, makes total sense.
  5. bean5302
    Triple slash numbers mean nothing these days. MLB has played around with the pitchers (seems like sticky stuff is back) and balls to the point where HR/FB rates and general hitting statistics aren't static enough to pull much from them. wRC+ and OPS+ peg Correa as a 25-30% better than average hitter playing the second most valuable defensive position in baseball. Correa's bWAR is 3.3 already, and I suspect he'll crest 4 this year. Fangraphs' 2.4 fWAR doesn't make any sense to me at all. Seems broken. Correa owns 2.4 fWAR with almost no defensive value despite his UZR being positive and him playing SS so Fangraphs' formula is seemingly broken for Correa. In any case, WAR isn't particularly stable as it's not a counting stat. WAR works in an exponential way with a single change being multiplied by every inning and every plate appearance over the entire year. I suspect Correa will end the year over 4.0 bWAR and somewhere close to that in fWAR. All that said, even if Correa was viewed as a 3 WAR player worth only $24MM per year by conventional logic, he'd still be able to secure a contract for 4-5yrs and $100MM. Minimum. He's only 27 years old right now... Of course, after that, he'd have another contract waiting for him after that should he remain healthy. The risk to Correa opting in is enormous.
  6. bean5302
    Correa could decline the option and worst case scenario get a 1 year contract for $35MM with a player option for $35MM from a dozen teams in baseball. Correa does not have to sign a long term contract to win by opting out... He just has to sign a contract equal to or better than what he has now. It's inconceivable a team wouldn't give Correa a 1yr + Player option contract (including the Twins). Basically, there's absolutely nothing for Correa to lose by not exercising his option...
  7. bean5302
    Correa's player options were always BAD for the Twins. If Correa opts in to his contract with the Twins, it's a BAD thing because it meant he's severely injured or terrible. The options were always to protect Correa from the potential risk of an injury and a down season. Barring severe injury or a massive slump, Correa would be an absolute fool to exercise his player option for 2023. Worst case scenario, you don't think he could re-arrange a 1 yr $35MM contract with a player option for $35MM in the second year? Of course he could. There is utterly no possible way to believe what's on the table at this point is in any way shape or form beneficial to Correa.
  8. bean5302
    If all their best players are at home on the sofa, there's a pretty good chance of that, isn't there? Feel free to read my post any time you want before creating a strawman.
  9. bean5302

    Where's Wallner?

    bean5302 commented on Doc Munson's blog entry in Fantasy GM

    Oh gotcha, the professional scouts from the sites I linked you to are no good. We need the other professional scouts. The ones who are employed exclusively on team staffs who don't share scouting data with the public. THOSE scouts.
  10. bean5302
    aaaaaaaannnnddd the part many people here are ignoring is they just shut Buxton down for 8 days after 7/17. He either strained his hip or significantly aggravated what was a sore hip and made his way to the 10 day IL, but I'll tell you this much... a true hip strain will likely keep Buxton out until mid September at least. So the people hoping and praying for the Twins to have their best player collecting dust on a shelf during the most important stretch of the season are getting their wish.
  11. bean5302
    If it's time to shut Buxton down, then the Twins will take one of their most valuable players out of the lineup while they're in desperate need to win games. I'm so tired of these threads every time Buxton doesn't go 5/5 with 5 home runs and 5 stolen bases (yes, I know that's almost theoretically impossible) because everybody knows a healthy Buxton has never hit a ball with an exit velocity below 300mph and it's impossible he could ever strike out if his <insert body part> wasn't hurting him. Since the All Star Game .247/.337/.461 OPS .798 wRC+ 131 August .245/.362/.388 OPS .750 wRC+ 124 This absolute obsession with the idea Buxton cannot possibly slump drives me insane. He's a high strikeout, low walk (moderate walk this year) hitter with a lot of power which is going to always make him prone to feast and famine at the plate. Many of Buxton's injuries are chronic, meaning they will likely never disappear. Chronic wrist, chronic back, chronic hip, chronic knees, chronic migraines. This is why Buxton is such a tough case at him playing a full season. Shutting him down will not likely make these go away. Ever. If they shut him down for 5 years and just brought him back for the final year of his contract, he'd STILL HAVE THESE ISSUES. If the Twins feel Buxton's condition could deteriorate and cause permanent issues, they'll shut him down. If it's just a matter of playing through pain and treatment for chronic ailments they were already aware of, they'll keep sending him out as much as they can.
  12. bean5302
    Tie Astros and Yankees since the Twins can't seem to beat either team.
  13. bean5302
    Guess I have egg on my face over that one LOL.
  14. bean5302
    I was responding to the post above mine. Thanks, but I think I'll continue to have an opinion.
  15. bean5302
    A couple months of Eduardo Escobar vs. Jose Berrios for more than a full year, plus the expected value of a qualifying offer is an enormous difference in value. If the Twins don't get anything of value out of Woods-Richardson or Martin until 2025, it'll be pretty horrible. Duran was part of 2 mid level and 1 unranked prospect throw all playing in the low minors. Martin and Woods-Richardson were both top tier prospects playing in the high majors. Totally different expectations.
  16. bean5302
    It's been an consistent issue since the Twins got him from the latest reads. Also, it might explain a lot about Woods-Richardson being assigned to the Development List instead of AA when he arrived from Tokyo.
  17. bean5302
    Kopech is a perfect example. He was exclusively a starter through the minors, had to have UCL surgery and returned as a reliever due to the innings and pitch limits. He then shifted back into a starter role this year. Kopech has not been as dominant as a starter, but he's certainly shown promise and periods of dominance. 2021 - 0.8 bWAR, 1.7 fWAR 2022 - 1.8 bWAR, 1.2 fWAR with probably 5 starts left Even if Kopech pitches the same down the stretch as he has overall this year, he'll match his fWAR from last year and greatly exceed his bWAR.
  18. bean5302
    No, it really can't if Duran is committed to wanting a shot to start. Starters get contracts 2-3x as long as relievers and the annual value is 2-3x greater. Forcing Duran to pitch out the pen when he hasn't had a chance to start and wants to will not only cripple Duran's potential career earnings, it will severely damage the Twins' relationship with the pitcher while utterly gutting the potential on field value to the franchise. It's a totally different story if Duran comes to the conclusion he pitches best out of the pen and grows comfortable there like Trevor May did. Largest reliever contract in history? 5yrs $86MM to Aroldis Chapman. Largest starter contract in MLB history? 9yrs $324MM to Gerrit Cole. Highest Reliever AAV? $18MM to Liam Hendricks Highest Starter AAV? $43MM to Max Scherzer Recent HoF inductees. Highest Starter bWAR? Greg Maddux 107 bWAR mean avg 4.7 bWAR Highest Reliever bWAR? Mariano Rivera 56 bWAR mean avg 3.0 bWAR
  19. bean5302
    This is the same kind of article I would have expected to see back in like 2013. Mauer isn't a leader because he's not vocal enough! Buxton isn't a leader? The guy is learning Spanish to better communicate and be more inclusive with his teammates. Hard to get a better example of leadership. https://www.inforum.com/sports/pro/twins-center-fielder-byron-buxton-dives-into-new-challenge-learning-spanish Correa isn't a leader? The guy makes his opinions known on team roster decisions and how much he values players. Several players have talked about playing with Correa and how he inspires and helps them. The Twins just aren't a great team. They're a good team dealing with a lot of injuries to guys who were expected to be core players this year like Buxton, Sano, Larnach, Kepler, Ober and Paddack and several players they were really hoping would step up and deliver on their potential like Lewis, and Winder. The Twins are 8th in MLB and 4th in the AL in batting WAR. It's clear why they're not winning games, and that's pitching. Now, when it comes to pitching, Minnesota's bullpen has been a huge issue, compounded by the short appearances of their starters which is certainly part front office and manager game philosophy.
  20. bean5302
    That's not good. The word was the Twins had been working with him to regain velocity, but if he's struggling at under 90mph at this point, after having a very well rested arm, that's pretty damning. From MLB.com At his best, Woods Richardson is an intriguing combination of size, stuff and feel for pitching. The Twins are working with him to regain the velocity on his fastball, which still features good movement but averaged only around 91 mph in 2021. He touched 96 mph, so the organization thinks more consistent velocity is in there if he can access it. His curve, an upper-70s downer, is a tick better than his low-80s slider, but it’s his changeup that is his only plus pitch right now, thrown with good fade and deception. https://www.mlb.com/prospects/twins/simeon-woods-richardson-680573 If Woods-Richardson can't at least get his fastball into the low 90s, I'd be surprised if he would be effective at the MLB level. Veteran pitchers who've mastered their craft and have years of experience against MLB competition to know what works can often pitch effectively enough without the velocity, but for a rookie? That's a very tall call and one reason I'm not high at all on Cole Sands starting.
  21. bean5302
    Duran wants to start. His manager? Condescendingly and dismissively jokes about it. I love the supportive attitude, especially after management took a pie to the face from their best starting pitcher just a couple days ago and then immediately after, yanked another starter who had a shutout going at 71 pitches just to have the reliever cough up a run in a game the Twins lost. I think Duran should be given the opportunity to start next year as his innings have ramped up nicely this year and he's been able to handle the workload. He was always a starter in the minors and he can dial it back from 103 to 99 and be effective. You're talking about the potential of having an ace under long term team control for cheap. The first truly legitimate ace developed in the minors by this organization since... ummm Viola? Duran is worth about 3x more to the team as a starter. Duran has been everything and more than I expected. I didn't have high hopes for him based on last years walk rate and getting so used to prospects being highly praised for "stuff" that just didn't translate with results in the minors only to discover it got even worse at the majors. Duran's had poise, shown command and control and wipeout pitches which have totally owned opponents and this is his rookie season. He could continue to get better.
  22. bean5302
    The bullpen gave up 2 earned runs in 5 innings. 3.60 ERA. Can't expect them to allow fewer runs than that. I don't think it's anybody's "fault." The Twins scored 3, allowed 4. That's a tightly contested, well fought ball game where neither team did a lot more or less than expected.
  23. bean5302
    Throws as hard as Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, but starts to look like batting practice, eh? Seems like a strong strike against Falvey for signing the guy if he's an opener and not a starter.
  24. bean5302
    It's not concerning to me if the Twins make a playoff run this year.
  25. bean5302
    Bundy should be going 6-8 innings a game. His pitch counts are almost always very efficient. In the process of debating and researching the TTO theories, the stats on how frequently average pitchers are asked to go out to the mound for the 6th inning, and the answer is very frequently. Nearly 80% of MLB starters, on average, are on the mound in the 6th inning. My concern is the extreme shifting in Bundy's pitch counts at this point. I knew Baldelli was pulling him early and with few pitches, but I had no idea how drastically different Bundy's pitch counts have been. Bundy's workload has varied by over to 60% in back to back games. He's seen games where he's thrown 107 pitches and games where he's been pulled at 58 for seemingly no reason. On average, Bundy can only guess how many pitches he's going to throw as the average difference in his pitch count is almost 25% from game to game. This cannot be good for his health. Arguments the Twins are limiting innings or pitch counts etc to protect their pitchers seem unreasonable to me at this point. It seems the only reason behind the moves is the commitment to winning each and every game with the philosophy the front office and manager have agreed to follow. Maybe they're right. Maybe they're wrong.
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