bean5302

While his AAA ERA of 2.19 looks pretty stellar, and his FIP of 2.88 is very encouraging, the xFIP of 3.63 suggests there's plenty of room for regression. Honestly, we're just looking at some pretty small sample sizes. Nardi's K% is outstanding and it feels like the scouting report on his pitches might be bearish. It's hard to get those kind of K rates in the upper minors on pure control, especially considering the K rates have continued with or without high BB rates. Here's a fangraphs writeup on him from 6/29. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/miami-marlins-top-35-prospects-2022/ 29. Andrew Nardi, MIRP Drafted: 16th Round, 2019 from Arizona (MIA) Age 23.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 201 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+ Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops 50/50 55/55 45/50 45/55 92-94 / 95 He isn’t going to be a dominant late-inning reliever or anything, but Nardi was a relatively innocuous Day Three draft pick who knifed through the low minors and has put himself in a position to claim a 40-man spot after this season. He sits 92-93 mph, will top out in the 95-96 range, and has an average low-80s slider and a playable mid-80s changeup that relies on location more than action. He also has experience working four-to-six outs at a time. He’s in position to work as an optionable long man next year. It’s imperative for Miami to keep guys like this coming as support for the aging/oft-injured group likely to comprise their bullpen for the next several years.

I said if the loss of a 7th round pick was enough to gut the Twins' pitching pipeline, that's enough to fire Falvey If that were the case, his front office had utterly failed to draft/develop good pitchers which is a big part of the reason he was hired. I'm not calling for Falvey's head if he trades Winder as I don't think I can make a judgement on what's behind Winder or declare Winder on his own raises the performance of Falvey's front office.

I seem to recall Winder was throwing 91ish out of college and was hitting 97mph before this season. His FB averaged 95mph so far this year.

It's RBI(s) if you want to get technical. A single "run batted in" vs. multiple "runs batted in" with the word run being pluralized.

Oh yeah, that's exactly what I said. Hey, when you have no argument, the best option is to create a strawman, amirite?

Not sure. It seems possible adding 5-7mph of fastball velocity through mechanical changes (Twins method) just eats up arms for pitchers who are learning to change their approach in their 20s.

I don't know why Blyleven never gets the respect he deserves. Comparing guys like Morris and Kaat to Blyleven is really brutal. Blyleven was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball for a long time and his enshrinement was from the realization he truly was an elite pitcher who'd slipped through the cracks. Blyleven's 7 year run from 1971-1977 (avg ERA+ 135) was better than any single year Kaat ever had and Blyleven's career was shorter, yet more than TWICE as valuable as Kaat. Verlander would have to pitch at a steady Cy Young level for at least 4-5 more years to match Blyleven's 96 career bWAR. I mean... we're talking about the 38th best WAR total in MLB history here...

Honestly, there's really no legitimate argument for Kaat, and Tony Oliva is a very tough case due to the very short career. Kaat is another Jack Morris. Absolutely never great, just a sometimes quite good, but mostly above average steady accumulator over a 25 year career with only 3 All Star appearances. Kaat doesn't even have the historical game 7 World Series shutout to dominate people's mind's when they think of him. The same career bWAR as Brad Radke, only it took, literally, more than twice as many seasons to get there. I can't even fathom why the "Big Hall" guys would support Kaat's enshrinement. There's just nothing truly remarkable about his career other than how long he played. Tony Oliva had an excellent 8 year run, and that 8 years was so excellent it's hard to overlook. He made the All Star Game 8 consecutive years and won the Rookie of the Year award with 3 top 4 finishes in the MVP voting. That said, Oliva wasn't anywhere near the best player in baseball and appeared on the top 10 of bWAR for a season only once in his career. Outside of that excellent 8 year run, Oliva wasn't worth a roster spot. I think he got the nod due to how his knees wiped out his career, but Oliva is dramatically short of the typical HoF career as the 462nd highest career bWAR. Only a handful of position players who didn't play prior to 1900 are lower than Oliva.

Bizarre to point out hypocrisy? If the games are already decided, then the players you have don't matter. 9 years of Buxton is worthless. Literally worthless except the fan interest in his highlight reels because there is nothing Buxton (or any other player) will or could have done to make a difference in any game they play. It just would have been offset by everything else that happened. If the Twins won the game, they won the game because of a different reason. If the Twins lost the game, they would have lost all the same. That's literally your argument. Placing a virtually impossible, and irrelevant, qualifier on a legitimate argument that aces matter in the playoffs and world series is ridiculous. Aces are very rarely traded, but elite pitching performances in the playoffs are almost always the recipe for a World Series winner. I can't prove the Twins would have won or made the World Series with Syndergaard any more than you can prove they wouldn't.

I like Winder's potential a lot. If everything went his way, like literally everything, he could be a top of the rotation guy. I think he profiles better as a mid rotation guy, but he's had shoulder issues in two consecutive years. That's a major red flag to me. If Winder's shoulder can't handle the starter workload consistently, it means he's going to be in the bullpen and the value he brings at that point is heavily diminished.

I think it the Twins draft and development pipeline depends that greatly on a 7th round pick, that's enough for me to call for Falvey's head.

While the Twins may not have won a playoff series with Santana, Johan Santana pitched in 2004 when the Twins won their last playoff game. also, the Twins scored 4 runs in game 1 vs the Yankees in 2019. Maybe Cron doesn't commit that error at 1B with Syndergaard pitching and the Twins win game 1. Not that it matters because everything can change based on in game action, luck, etc. Maybe Berrios pitches lights out in game 2 and the Twins win instead of having Dobnak shelled the way he was. Now the Twins are up 2-0... It's entirely conceivable that series goes different with the Twins anchored by Syndergaard. It's not like Buxton had any impact on the 2019 series since he was *feign surprise* hurt anyway. Based on your response why do you even care about Buxton in the first place? By your logic, he's a colossal waste of money anyway since the Twins are destined to win the same number of games regardless of who is on the field. There's no point in spending a single dollar more than MLB minimum on anybody.

Mudcat Grant was pretty good in his short stint as a Twins pitcher, but hardly great.

Morris was only the 3rd best pitcher on the team in his only season in a Twins uniform (1991). Tapani and Erickson were both better than Morris that year so I don't think I'd give Morris the nod here. I'd definitely take 2010 Jim Thome over Nelson Cruz as well.

Syndergaard had a 3.32 FIP in the second half and a 3.70 FIP in September. His final game was 7.0 innings, 9 Ks, 5 H, 2 BBs against Atlanta who won the NL East with 97 wins that year. Syndergaard's fastball averaged 97.5mph that game. He was not hurt. He injured himself in Spring Training 2020. Game 1 - 10/4 Syndergaard pitches instead of Berrios Game 2 - 10/5 Berrios pitches instead of Dobnak Game 3 - 10/7 Odorizzi pitches Game 4 - 10/8 Dobnak pitches if needed Game 5 - 10/10 Syndergaard pitches if needed, or he's ready for Game 1 vs. the next opponent. 1 pitcher has been the difference many times. If you don't believe a true ace makes a difference in the playoffs... well, we have utterly no common ground and there's nothing to even discuss.

I know who Alcala is, I just didn't know why you'd covet a middle reliever like he was made of gold. I guess my head was stuck on Alcantara at that point.

Okay, I'll imagine the Twins won the World Series in 2019 with Noah Syndergaard, but lost Byron Buxton in the process. I'll take that. every. single. time. Mediocre teams that got hot/lucky at the right time can happen, but the likelihood it happens is low and the commitment to that low-risk philosophy leads to potentially decades of mediocrity like the Twins have experienced. Just good enough to win a weak division and be forgotten as a playoff team. That said, it may be a more viable philosophy with the ever expanding playoffs.

Alcantara... you mean Sandy Alcantara? ERAs at the highest level each season. Where were these 5.85 and 5.87 ERAs you're talking about? a19 Rk - 3.22 a20 A+ - 3.62 a21 MLB - 4.32 -> Traded to Miami from St. Louis a22/26 MLB - 3.44, 3.88, 3.00, 3.19, 1.76 Btw, I'm not saying sell low. I'm saying you cannot sell them for anything of high value right now because other team front offices are not stupid. If the Twins were able to get another front office to see Martin or Balazovich as a major piece in a trade for a front line starter, it would be a huge coup.

Low on innings, but otherwise... yes. Right now, ranked #10 at ERA and FIP for starters with 70+ innings. I'd say Alcantara, Rodon and Burns are probably favorites.

I don't think the problem is trade assets. I think the problem here is the attachment to the prospects who are performing. Essentially, the fans here don't want to give anything up. Larnach, Kirilloff, Kepler, Polanco, Arraez, Miranda, Ober... they're all established or semi-established and team controlled for a few years. The non-established guys like Lewis, Steer, Wallner, and Winder all have value. Some high upside, but further away prospects Miller, Encarnation-Strand, Hajjar, Povich. There's plenty of value, but the Twins have exactly 0 elite prospects who aren't injured at this point so trade packages are going to be tough to hammer out without parting with coveted pieces.

AA - a23 - 3rd professional year - .249/.378/.313 - OPS .691 - wRC+ 93 - 11.7% BB, 13.8% K. No power at all. Worst fielding percentage and range factors at SS in the entire league by a mile. AAA - a23 - 7th professional year - 10.13 ERA, 7.70 FIP, 5.01 xFIP, 8.28 K/9, 4.60 BB/9, 2.32 WHIP Selling that at all would be an achievement.

I suspect Larnach, Steer, Ober would be the ask.

Chase Petty is pitching pretty well in A ball right now as a 2nd year pro out of high school. Gray isn't exactly free with a $10MM salary this year and a $12MM club option next year, though he's definitely more than earning his keep. With Gray being a frequent flyer on the IL, he's about a 2.5 WAR pitcher with declining velocity. Good, but hardly excellent. A nice #3 guy when healthy who should be hauling in $15MM-ish per year. So there is some value with Gray, but it's not like he's a front line starter the Twins stole for a middle rank prospect. The Twins need the front end starter so dropping Martin and Balazovic is fine, but considering how they're playing, I'm not sure those would be the prospects the Reds would be asking about.

Brooks Lee isn't likely to stick at SS. Aside from that, Correa is 95% gone after this year, and that's a good thing. If Correa is here next year, it's because he had a catastrophic injury and won't be ready for the start of (or any of) the 2023 season so he decided to take his player option. Lewis has all of 41 plate appearances at the MLB level and will miss a couple months next season, at least. In addition, the Twins don't think much of Palacios, Cavaco is a bust and Noah Miller is at least 3 more years away. I'd say the cupboard is much more bare at SS than you think.

Sano could go 1.000/1.000/4.000 for the rest of his rehab assignment and I wouldn't have any interest in him long term and I suspect there's little Sano can do to pique the interest of other teams in terms of trade value. No idea what to do with him once the Twins activate him.