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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    The Twins honestly need a legitimate long term every day outfielder with the ability to start at CF. The only outfielder they have in the system who might be able to do that in the relative near future is probably Emmanuel Rodriguez. The closest the Twins might have otherwise is DaShawn Keirsey, but I don't think he's going to be any better than Austin Martin or Andrew Stephenson, but it's a good time to give him a shot, I guess? I keep looking at Larnach's falling stat line wondering if the bubble has burst as I'd already written him off as a 1.0-1.5 WAR outfielder. Good enough as a backup or on a team who just needs a guy who won't kill you if he plays every day. 01-10: .394/.447/.636 OPS 1.096, 10.5% BB, 21.1% K, 93.9mph EV, 11.5% Barrel, 53.8% Hard 11-20: .235/.278/.324 OPS .601, 5.6% BB, 25.0% K, 95.0mph EV, 8.0% Barrel, 56.0% Hard 21-30: .162/.244/.405 OPS .649, 9.8% BB, 17.1% K, 94.5mph EV, 13.3% Barrel, 50.0% Hard I expanded Larnach's sample size to a full season based on the approximate percentage of pitches he'd see of each type (over 5% stuff only) He's just continued doing stuff he's never done before. His K rate is WAY down, and he's hitting breaking stuff better than ever. He's been unreal against the 4 seamer, and I can't see how that is sustainable, but as his sample size grows, he's continuing to rake. He's got to stay up.
  2. bean5302
    He's not good enough to be an MLB regular. That's the issue. Without the injuries this year, he's magically kinda the same hitter he was with all of the speculatory impact from his "injuries" in the past.
  3. bean5302
    Always felt like Deduno had no place on a pitchers mound. The guy was always drilling batters high and inside due to his total lack of control. Practically a miracle he didn't end anybody's career.
  4. bean5302
    Looking back at all the pitches to Yankees hitters it seems like Ober got the benefit on a couple calls. There was only one single significant miss IMHO which helped Judge earn a walk. Royce Lewis... can we clone him?
  5. bean5302
    No he wasn't. He was brought in because Jose Miranda and Alex Kirilloff both had late season/offseason shoulder surgery and because nobody else in MLB wanted Carlos Santana on their roster so the Twins only had to pay him $5MM.
  6. bean5302
    Lewis only hits grand slams when the bases are loaded so I think what you're suggesting is theoretically impossible? LOL. Seriously, nobody will care. The guy was setting records last year with the bases loaded.
  7. bean5302
    That's why playoff caliber teams (like the Twins) make trades. Doesn't have to be for a hitter, there will be some starters available.
  8. bean5302
    I'd say no. Alonso is "good" not great hitter. wRC+ 120 territory for the past two years, which is just a bit better than I'd expect for Jose Miranda. Alonso is best suited to DH duties. So I just don't see Alonso as a significant upgrade over what I expect the Twins to be rolling out the dugout at that point. In regard to the writers idea of throwing a veteran back at the Mets to offset salary... what possible advantage would the Mets see in that type of move? The Mets are going to be happy to eat the $7MM, but they're going to eat it in the hopes of getting a better return, not to dump salary.
  9. bean5302
    The reason for the trade is you think it makes you more likely to win the World Series.
  10. bean5302
    We've missed the excitement, electricity, leadership and inspiration he brings to the game. He makes the game fun to watch, and he inspires fans and teammates to believe. He's a true face of the franchise type of guy and the only player who has the kind of charisma to be the new favorite player in team history next to Kirby Puckett. It's a huge weight/opportunity. I haven't been as excited about a player since the good 'ol days. If Lewis continues to play like he did last year, he's a potential MVP and national celebrity.
  11. bean5302
    The Twins bullpen has been as billed IMHO. Despite significant time losses by Duran and Stewart, The overall value of the bullpen isn't my focus. It's the top 3-4 arms since those are the guys you typically see when the game is on the line and Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Jhoan Duran and Jorge Alcala make for an outstanding unit at this point.
  12. bean5302
    Why do you feel Canterino's stuff is so great? He's got virtually no time above the low minors.
  13. bean5302
    Tom Kelly was a fundamentals guy, and I think there were far, far more fundamentals managers back in the day. Pitchers forgetting to cover 1B or dropping balls was less common in 1990 than 2020. I think that's worth considering.
  14. bean5302
    I think you might be slightly biased, lol. That said, defense at 1B doesn't typically matter much because the range of defensive value isn't usually super wide due to the lack of different physical skills needed to play the position. The assumption for 1B is maybe like -8 to +7 or so, no matter who you put there. Having a guy who can't catch balls at 1B would be a problem so there's something which would matter, but 25-30pts of OPS = 10 runs or so. A lousy 1B with 50 OPS higher would still be a better play than a great first baseman. So sticking Carlos Correa at 1B vs. Carlos Santana would potentially have a marginal improvement in fielding statistics. Defense at SS especially, and 2B and 3B has a tendency to stand out more because those positions require more skills. Arm strength, reaction time and acceleration are all components in the other infield positions and each additional skill means a potentially wider and wider gap between good and bad defense. Put a lousy 1B at SS and you'd literally probably see -40, but the very best SS might be +15. Carlos Santana adds marginal value over Jose Miranda or Alex Kirilloff defensively. Whoever has the better bat is the better play, given no additional holes in the lineup to fill.
  15. bean5302
    Why are you guys feeding the troll?
  16. bean5302
    Yes. They've beaten the Royals in 2 series. They've taken series' from other teams who were over .500 at the time as well, like the Red Sox (now .500). Side note, winning a lot series' against opponents over .500 isn't all that common. Falvey won't be hesitant since the front office will be swept out end of year if the Twins fail to make the playoffs.
  17. bean5302
    It's an interesting article, and a specific thing I've thought about. The Twins have a few errors which have resulted from pitchers not catching or throwing the ball to first base this year. Every set of hands involved in the play is an increased risk of error from my standpoint. 1B more likely to run the ball back to first base rather than risk a toss/catch may have better results.
  18. bean5302
    I doubt Brooks Lee has more trade value than Jose Miranda right now. Lee and Gonzalez is definitely not getting it done. You'd have to toss in Festa at least. The Marlins aren't going to cash out on a pitcher without at least one quality pitching prospect in return.
  19. bean5302
    Interesting timing for this forum after a recent topic about the debate in reinstating Pete Rose and Joe Jackson. To be honest, this one feels a lot more like a formality in the investigation prior to the lifetime ban hammer incoming. Guess Marcano may not have been expected to have a sure fire notable MLB career, but he's probably headed to a foreign baseball league in the near future. Major League Baseball is currently investigating Marcano (knee) for a violation of the sport's gambling policy, which could result in a lifetime ban, Jared Diamond and Lindsey Adler of The Wall Street Journal Report report. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/40271458/sources-padres-tucupita-marcano-faces-mlb-ban-betting
  20. bean5302
    Well, if Falvey hadn't burned $20MM of payroll on platoon/utility guys, he would have been able to bring in a front line starter. In regard to Luzardo, it's tough to say what he's worth. Probably about a surplus value of $50-60MM, which is a step over Berrios because of the extra control. Festa + Gonzalez + either Miranda or Julien probably gets it done. Also consider the Twins can expect to pack on double digits in the millions of salary next year and the year after.
  21. bean5302
    It's just two starts at AA and the hitters are making really poor contact against Morris. Either hitters will miss by a hair more and strike out or make contact hair better and crush some baseballs. Either way, we'll probably know more in 2-3 more games with Morris on the mound in the high minors.
  22. bean5302
    Pretty tough to hold a 5.1 inning performance against a guy (Spencer Bengard) as not being a "start" considering Bengard was pitching in the first inning on normal rest. Zebby Matthews was definitely the right call here. Let's hope he keeps it up at AA, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him in AAA by the end of the year if he keeps dealing like this. He'll certainly pass David Festa on my Twins prospect list if he does. Morris is getting results, but it's tough to believe in his 4.5 K/9 at AA over the past couple games. The batted ball data says tons of grounders and pop ups so the batters might just be getting lucky touching a piece of Morris' pitches, and if that's the case, the K's might tick up a bit to a belief worthy level.
  23. bean5302
    Because Lewis is the likely face of the franchise and best player on the Minnesota Twins who has earned a static position. It's uncommon to shift around super stars for average players. Also, Miranda is not a good third baseman not only due to his limited range, but a weak arm.
  24. bean5302
    Eeles is an interesting prospect for sure. He was pretty successful in Indy league baseball after being overlooked in college. I'd suspect the Twins will be moving him up rapidly given his lack of pedigree and age. I'm a little surprised they started him off so low as Indy leagues like American Association would be at A+/AA level IMHO. Several former fringe-y MLB guys and players who made it to AAA on Eeles' Chicago Dogs team last year. Nice to see Wallner's bat waking up. Last 10 games: .235/.381/.677 OPS 1.058, great, but more importantly, the 16.7% BB vs. 21.4% K rate is the sign I've been looking for. Seems he's out of his own head at this point. I hope it continues and he's learned something through this adversity. If he did, I think he'll be an All Star caliber player going forward. If he hasn't learned the mental toughness he'll need, I expect he'll be a fringe guy.
  25. bean5302
    Yeah, Miranda at the keystone would probably be a disaster. Can't figure the Twins would be nuts like that, haha.
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