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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Putting aside the Kirilloff stuff. Soto is going into his 4th pro season. 1. 2023 - Drafted by Twins, did not pitch in MiLB competitive games. He got a $2.5MM contract. He's a pro. 2. 2024 - Pitched full MiLB season 3. 2025 - Injured almost entire season. 4. 2026 - 4th pro season. I suppose you can make some sort of active service time argument, but he's over 3 years EoY this year no matter how you slice it.
  2. bean5302
    Wrong time of year to be looking up prices if you're talking about the resale market? Best deal in the stadium is left field bleachers. 20 game package is $600 / seat ($30/game) for 20 games all-in. Lower level, GOOD view of the game, close to bathrooms, and some good concession options, sun coverage, weather coverage. I think 15% discount on all concessions/merch. Season ticket holder perks like a couple free caps, special events, etc. As a 74yr old, the bleachers might not be a good option for comfort. They're very cold in cold weather and not too nice on the backside. For lower prices with more comfort, you'd be limited to upper deck, and I'd strongly recommend 300s. I think 200s are the worst deal in the game. Field Box might be your best bet for a better game view starting at $720/seat ($36/game)
  3. bean5302
    Arm strength is fairly irrelevant for 2B becuase the throws are short, on average. Where a SS is expected to regularly make 100+ foot throws, the 2B is often making 30-50 foot throws. Center Field and Right Field require strong arms. Right field to prevent frequent advance attempts to 3B. Center fielders have long throws to make from the deepest part of the outfield. Keaschall is "fast" but not for a center fielder. Keaschall is a little tick below average for a center fielder. Could he cover CF? Sure. He'd likely be a slower version of Ben Revere out there. Range is typically critical for 2B. Think about the number of infield hits fielded by the 2B (virtually 0%) vs. infield hits which were fielded by SS/3B. If the 2B can get to the ball, it's an out. If the SS/3B can get to the ball, there's still a chance a speedy runner can beat the throw. "MVP" I get wanting to be excited about a prospect who looked good in his first work in MLB. Keaschall was not nearly good as Edouard Julien was in his first 204 PA, and as pitchers started getting scouting reports, Keaschall's expected output tanked. So probably temper some expectations. .297/.387/.543 OPS .930 wRC+ 154 in his first 205 PA Julien .302/.382/.445 OPS .827 wRC+ 134 in his first season (204 PA) Keaschall MVPs are almost required to have an elite bat. We're not talking about a "good" bat. We're talking elite bat. That means high OBP and high SLG. Keaschall may develop power in the future, but he's a non-starter when it comes to MVP ceiling. Projection models, even the aggressive ones show Keaschall as a 3.0 WAR caliber player right now. That's still very good. That's a big asset, especially as a cheap, team controlled asset. If we wouldn't consider Jorge Polanco a potential MVP, Luke Keaschall wouldn't be a potential MVP, either. It does a disservice to truly elite players and sets totally unreasonable expectations for Keaschall talking about MVP potential. I see nothing in Keaschall's profile which suggests he's a potential MVP.
  4. bean5302
    Pablo Lopez has an existing contract for $80MM. He's got piece of mind. Your contract proposal is an absolute insult. There is utterly no world where that contract offer isn't looked at as absolutely ridiculous. If Lopez pitches 2027 to the tune of a 3.75 ERA/FIP, he's going to get $25MM+ AAV for 3 years, with maybe a little less for 4 years. My guess is somebody will happily pony up 4yrs and $90MM for Lopez at that point, even with the qualifying offer he'll get from the Twins (if it still exists). Even if Lopez has a mediocre 2027, he'll get more than your offer. Even if he absolutely sucked he'd get more than you're offering. Bieber got 2yrs and $26MM after having missed almost all of the last 2 years and having missed a big chunk of 2023 as well. I'm not nearly as much of a Lopez guy as other people on the site, but give him at least a little credit for not being trash.
  5. bean5302
    0.0% chance. Spring training is about working on pitches and getting into game shape. Lots of players are working on new stuff or just getting a feel for stuff. It's an opportunity to keep throwing a pitch which isn't working for example. It's part of the reason Spring Training stats rarely mean anything.
  6. bean5302
    EXACTLY. The scenario proposed reads to me like a... Twins are competitive this year or look like they have the core to be competitive for 2027 and then 2028. The scenario also assumes it's a lock the CBA is agreed to and is status-quo or beneficial to the players which I think is also risky for the Twins. The scenario assumes it's a virtual guarantee Pablo Lopez is widely expected to come back as the same pitcher after having missed 1-2 years to the point where a team with ownership committed to a below median payroll will be able to avoid bad large contracts consider there to be no added risk to extending Lopez. The reality is Pablo Lopez today is not Pablo Lopez in 2023 where the Twins ALREADY bought out 3 years of his free agency through an extension. Lopez has a guaranteed generational wealth contract at $80MM from the Twins. He's not desperate or starving for a new contract. Lopez has almost zero reason to take a discount, and plenty of reasons not to take a short term contract at age 32...
  7. bean5302
    Lopez's xERA and xFIP have climbed for the last 2 straight years and this was going to be his age 30 season. He's not good enough to lead a playoff rotation based on his seasonal stats. His K rates have declined massively. His exit velocities against are climbing, both average and max. Hitters are swinging at Lopez's stuff outside the zone less so his deception is in decline. Contact rates in and out of the zone are up... This obsession with extending every decent player who suits up for the Twins for more than a year or two is crazy to me. Lopez is not the guy you extend. An extension makes little sense for either side, yet the TD writers will continue to push this issue over and over again, won't they? If Lopez is needed at the price he'll take, the Twins are already non-competitive.
  8. bean5302
    It "used" to be not abusive at all. The Randy Dobnaks of the world operating on $2MM / year contracts weren't going to get another MLB contract, that's why they didn't refuse the assignment. The Dodgers are using it different. They're signing guys, hanging on to them until the market dries up, then outrighting them or DFA'ing them which puts the player into a really tough spot. It forces players who WOULD get an MLB contract someplace else under normal competitive scenarios into the minors because the market has dried up. That's abusive. Jackson is different. He wasn't going to get $1.35MM anywhere so he's honestly in good shape. Falzoll doesn't understand the "budget" concept thing so they don't understand how to employ the strategy.
  9. bean5302
    Soto needs a healthy season pretty badly at this point. The Twins didn't have him throw a single inning in 2023, then he missed pretty much all of 2025 with various issues. Soto has as much upside as anybody in the system, but if he doesn't pitch, it won't matter.
  10. bean5302
    I heard Leeroy Hoard will getcha 3.
  11. bean5302
    All I need is a reminder of how expensive it is to go to a Wild game to change my perspective on Twins games, lol. Wild are +27 which is tied for 3rd best in the West right now. Avs are the clear juggernauts in the West. Crazy how many close games the Lightning must have lost this year. +60 with the same point total as the Wild.
  12. bean5302
    Byron Buxton Matt Wallner Ryan Jeffers Royce Lewis Byron Buxton in a mustache Matt Wallner in a mustache Ryan Jeffers in a mustache Royce Lewis in a mustache Byron Buxton with glasses and a mustache Something like that...
  13. bean5302
    It's probably a pitch count thing. Skubal at 80 pitches can get through 5 no problem. In fact, he averaged 14.5 pitches per inning last year. 84 pitches gets him through 6. 5 innings 41 starts a year in a full season gets him to 205. It's just not viable to have a 4 man because the bullpen is too short.
  14. bean5302
    Baseball Trade Values has Larnach at +2 last I checked. That's enough for a 10-15 prospect somewhere. Larnach is an MLB average or better hitter and that doesn't honestly grow on trees. He's a better player than Josh Bell who we paid $7MM for (another bone-headed contract). I would so much rather trade Bell and $2MM for a PTBNL than Larnach for a 10-15 org prospect. The real problem is finding a suitor. Right now, there aren't any. Larnach isn't a black hole so he'll appeal to a team with a strong need in the outfield and a little (not a lot) of spending power. Maybe the Rays... but the absurdly cheap-skate (heh, pun) Rays won't eat $5MM so the Twins would have to aim a bit higher in a middle prospect and probably toss $2MM in or something.
  15. bean5302
    Jackson wasn't acquired because he was one of the worst hitters in MLB history across his limited 440 plate appearances in 6 seasons at the MLB level. Falzoll decided the SSS approach change for Jackson at the plate was the sustainable cause for a jump from a career wRC+ 29 bat to a wRC+ 111 bat. Of course, further metrics suggest it was mostly luck and Jackson is still a poor hitter at the MLB level, but possibly... playable? At this point in the season, I think Jackson would likely sneak through waivers. While his contract his fully guaranteed, it's only fully guaranteed so long as he does what the team says. Jackson doesn't have 5+ years of service time so a refusal to accept an assignment means he would forefit an enormous amount of money for a guy like him. He would go from $1.35MM guaranteed to likely a non-guaranteed $50k if signed to a MiLB contract. It's a very abusive system to which the Dodgers organization has brought public scrutiny to this year. I don't expect this system to remain in place in 2027+, but we're not there yet. I should also note, I wouldn't care if the Twins lost Jackson to another team claiming him. In fact, I think it would be a good thing because it was a bad trade and contract to begin with IMHO.
  16. bean5302
    I think that's a distinct possibility, actually. The return of the 4 man rotation with 80 pitch counts and 3-4 solid long relievers good enough to go 3 innings might well come out of that TBH.
  17. bean5302
    I think the big money players are totally on board with a burn it down mentality. They really don't have much to lose. If the MLBPA is able to get the younger players to favor some compromise, I think the season will work. If the hard-liner veterans on the generational wealth contracts are able to get the younger players in line, 2027 will be lost.
  18. bean5302
    Not Buxton Not Jeffers Not Ryan Article done.
  19. bean5302
    Can't agree with the sentiment on a 2027 lockout. It'll be catastrophic to baseball if it happens.
  20. bean5302
    I don't mind this list. I don't think the Twins have clear delineation between the ranking of their 10-20 prospects.
  21. bean5302
    There's a lot of truth here. Legit prospects are always younger than their competition. That said, in terms of raw "age" Winokur is younger than the competition because you see a lot of good prospectcollege guys at A+, but in his 3rd pro season, struggling in Cedar Rapids isn't a great projection model. He had a major improvement in his K rate, going from Ft. Myers to Cedar Rapids while dropping his K rate from 28% to 24% and there's probably more power coming. Batted ball data in the minors is tough to trust, but the lower BABIP over nearly 500 PA makes sense given the sky high pop up rate reported at almost 25% of fly balls he hit. Basically, Winokur didn't make enough contact, and when he did hit the ball, the contact quality was lacking. It will be interesting to see where the Twins put Winokur to start this season. Will he repeat the start in Cedar Rapids or now entering his 4th year, will the Twins push him up to Wichita? I think he still has a year left to rebound after a tough 2025.
  22. bean5302
    Kirilloff couldn't field and his offensive ceiling was limited because he didn't have raw power (108mph max exit velocity over his entire career), and he didn't have a ton of game power since he didn't hit fly balls. He had below average plate discipline and wouldn't take walks so his OBP was capped. His K rate was too high for his game power so his AVG/SLG were going to be capped, too. Kirilloff's 2023 probably represented something close to his ceiling where he was on pace for a 1.0 WAR full season, but even that comes with the Larnach caveat because Kirilloff was heavily shielded from lefties. If Kirilloff ever got a true full season, his bat was likely going to pan out to league average or a little better.
  23. bean5302
    Buxton isn't even close to top 10. Rod Carew HoF Bert Blyeven HoF Kirby Puckett HoF Harmon Killebrew HoF Joe Mauer HoF Kent Hrbek Tony Oliva HoF Frank Viola Chuck Knoblauch Brad Radke Johan Santana At least 5 more at least before Buxton's name comes up in terms of contributions to the Twins. Buxton has been with the Twins for a few years, and he's been All Star worthy for those years when healthy. A solid 5-6 WAR player if he plays a full season (which has happened 2x now). He ranks 13th in team history WAR, but few Twins players have seen less accomplished for the team over an 11 year tenure. Buxton has never won an MVP. He's never lead the Twins to an AL Championship game appearance. The only year the Twins won a playoff game during his tenure he was hurt and managed only a single plate appearance. He's a 2x All Star. He's not going to the HoF. Buxton wasn't the face of the franchise while Correa was here. Buxton could etch his name in the top 10, but he's not close right now.
  24. bean5302
    Bell hasn't had proven power since there were masking requirements in public spaces...
  25. bean5302
    Big contract guys like Harper are already talking about expectations of work stoppages. It's easy for the big guys with $300MM of guaranteed money coming their way. Owners bent over backwards in the last CBA. If there's a work stoppage, I expect it to be a lost season while the owners break the union hard. The MLBPA couldn't care less about the fans. They don't care about the fans, the game, the entertainment, the ambiance. The MLBPA believes baseball is all about name of the guy on the field and how much that player makes.
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