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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    For whom? Miranda, who clearly held his own for a full season in 2022 when his shoulder didn't need surgery and raked in a full year of AAA the year before that. There's plenty of reason to believe he can be an MLB starter and he's on his last option. Martin has hit around league average for over 1,000 plate appearances in the high minors... and did about the same at the MLB level nearly dead on matching his projected wRC+ from ZiPS, Steamer, FGDC, THE BAT, THE BAT X, and ATC DC. A little pop, above average speed, doesn't K a ton, doesn't walk a ton, good hit tool but lacks the power to turn fly balls into home runs, average arm. Austin Martin is a good backup/utility guy. Which is what everybody has been expecting out of him for two years now.
  2. bean5302
    Austin Martin looks like the very definition of a utility player to me. Miranda undoubtedly stayed up because he looks like a solid starter.
  3. bean5302
    Attendance has been pretty rough for the games I've been to this year. Seeing thousands of fans lined up outside Oracle Park 90min before game time in SF was a real eye-opener. Hopefully attendance picks up!
  4. bean5302
    I suppose the Twins might rely on Castro in CF considering the fact his bat has finally started to show up. If he'd remained in the cellar of performance, Castro actually still had an option left.
  5. bean5302
    Jackson has already been outrighted, too. I'd suspect he would decline being outrighted off the roster.
  6. bean5302
    I was at the Pirates at Giants game Saturday night in San Francisco. Bad defense was the name of the game. SF fielders had multiple errors scored as "hits" and literally dropped balls on easy double plays. It was rough to watch.
  7. bean5302
    Royce Lewis started up baseball activities about 10 days ago and was expected to begin his running progression last week. Probably more news by the end of this week, I'd suspect. I wouldn't expect a rehab assignment to start before next week, though. Maybe mid May at the earliest?
  8. bean5302
    As much as I hate it, I think you're probably right about the Twins deciding to lean on Martin in CF. The Twins have avoided using Margot in CF which is pretty infuriating to me considering the Twins already had plenty of corner OF depth... but Derek Falvey and shiny things... Miranda is hitting well now .292/.320/.500 OPS .820 wRC+ 135 production and low K rate is awfully hard to send to AAA, but the roster construction makes it a real mess.
  9. bean5302
    Here's hoping the Twins let Soto succeed and don't try to rebuild his delivery and mechanics to get 0.1mph more out of him if his stuff is working and he's healthy.
  10. bean5302
    Largest 6 starting pitcher contracts in baseball. Yamamoto = $325MM Cole = $324MM Strasburg = $245MM deGrom = $185MM Nola = $172MM Rodon = $162MM Lets look at the top 4 relievers... Diaz = $102MM Chapman = $86MM Jansen = $80MM Melancon = $62MM Reliever contracts (low innings, more appearances) are generally 3-4x less than starters of the same ranking, and 1/2 the AAV. Anybody who believes starting pitchers are going to be on board with the strategy of tanking their value certainly isn't considering the impact of fewer innings/WAR. There's a reason why Sonny Gray was PO'd with Baldelli in 2022. Gray was trying to get paid for his next contract, and that was going to require him eating innings.
  11. bean5302
    The number of injuries the Twins have experienced, all at the same time out of the gate, has been a more than I'd reasonably expect. I do think having Lewis, Correa, Kepler, and Duran all out at the same time for significant time to start the season off has impacted the team in the W/L category, but I don't think it's hurt the team any more than the roster construction in the first place.
  12. bean5302
    2023 5ft splits. Wallner = 0.00, 0.53, 0.83, 1.09, 1.32, 1.54, 1.74, I think you know what happens from here on... Larnach = 0.00, 0.52, 0.82, 1.08, 1.32, 1.54, 1.75, The players have the same acceleration curve for the first 20 feet or so. Larnach's route running is better as Wallner's reaction and first step are rough.
  13. bean5302
    Front office for not addressing a single need they had coming into the offseason. The Twins have a higher payroll this year than 5 of 12 playoff teams last year and one of the teams in the World Series (Arizona). They have the 2nd highest payroll in the AL Central this year, behind the White Sox by like $2MM. The ownership has green lighted 5 major contracts in the last 4 years. Donaldson, Buxton, Correa, Lopez, Correa. Need top rotation arm to replace Gray: Nope Need every day outfielder who can cover center field: Nope Need good power RH bat: Nope
  14. bean5302
    Can't steal unless they're on base and Baldelli actually makes the call to try.
  15. bean5302
    LOL, no he is not. Wallner (28.2->28.0 ft/sec) is literally as fast as Royce Lewis (28.4->28.2 ft/sec) and Austin Martin (27.9 ft/sec) who are all on the edge of center fielder speed. Larnach is like 26.5 ft/sec (below average). Larnach's defensive instincts are great, though. Wallner looks awkward out there, but Wallner has a higher defensive ceiling than Kepler. No chance Wallner gets called up until he rakes for a few weeks, though. He's looked ugly at the plate for a few weeks now.
  16. bean5302
    7th professional year in baseball, a27 season, looked like a bust from 2019-2022, didn't hit well in AAA last year.
  17. bean5302
    My opinion has been Festa = Strotman for a long while now. Can't or won't throw strikes. I liked seeing only 1 BB in 3.1 innings last night, but not the 4 hits which came along with the lack of walks. WHIP is one of the most important stats for me. Festa's WHIP is 1.33, 2.25, 2.62, 1.00, 1.50 in his starts so far with 64, 57, 69, 50, 49 pitch counts. Great for 3 innings! Not so great if you need a guy to be a starter who will go 5.0+ and 90+ pitches. How will the Twins even know if he can hold velocity after 70 or 80 pitches to be a legit starter? I do not care for the handling of these guys. Festa's outings last year: bold where there was a change of more than 20% from previous 51, 72, 83, 79, 81, 71, 70, 68, 62, 75, 78, 78, 69, 35, 25, 50, 64, 63, 45, 66, 73, 92, 91, 61 Like WTF? Maybe you'll pitch the equivalent of 2.0 innings, maybe you'll pitch 6.0?
  18. bean5302
    For sure. It's primarily the K rate here. No qualified hitter over .282 had a K rate of 24.0% or higher. Incredibly difficult to hit .300 with a K rate north of 20%.
  19. bean5302
    Probably are way more injuries these days. We know pitchers now throw 100% effort and harder than ever. Velocity = arm injuries. Hitters are 20-50lbs heavier than they used to be. Players are faster, stronger, bigger, heavier. Stronger muscles and heavier weights + max effort = injury.
  20. bean5302
    Falvey chose hitters with the boom or bust profile. Lots of raw power, who cares after that. Rooker, Sabato, Kirilloff, Larnach, etc. Even hitters without the HRs in college were tested to see if they could make their raw power into HR power like Martin was. Falvey wants home runs as the number one priority. If we're seeing an increase in GB rates, it's certainly not from the intended approach, it's just noise or personnel due to injuries.
  21. bean5302
    Larnach has always been a line drive hitter (like Joe Mauer or Alex Kirilloff) so the potential for a .300 batting average is there, but the K's are going to have to come way down to do it. Hopefully, less noise in his swing and a shorter stroke will help him hold off on decisions a few microseconds and that'll help him identify pitches better so he can sustain the success. Time will tell.
  22. bean5302
    Nah. Larnach has to absolutely rake beyond any of his historical precedents to keep it if Wallner starts hitting. Larnach is making a good case at the moment, though!
  23. bean5302
    Honestly? Probably SSS. Larnach got a few big hits against breaking stuff last year early on before it all went sideways again. His biggest weakness is the changeup. I, too, am happy to watch Larnach succeed, but the track record on him is pretty long at this point. Maybe he altered his swing which is helping him. Too early to tell.
  24. bean5302
    That cooler weather after the rain took away Lopez's velocity and his stuff from the article? Yeah... except the opponent's pitcher, who had no issues. Lopez was down 1.5-2.0mph from his average start. That's a huge red flag. Hopefully, we don't hear about forearm/elbow issues in the next couple days.
  25. bean5302
    I expect Santana has months. Literally, months of leash time with this front office. Gallo was arguably the worst player in baseball after May last year. The Twins kept calling his number right up until they left him off the playoff roster.
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