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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Happy to see the Twins get a win against the Guardians with Varland starting. 4.2 IP with 8 hits allowed isn't going to be too successful in most cases, but Varland was able to limit the damage on the scoreboard and the 3 ER was lifted by an outstanding bullpen effort and huge bats. I really hope Matthews looks good in his start.
  2. bean5302
    Wallner is one of the top hitters in all of baseball over his past 2 seasons and it showed in that at bat. Cobb wasn't trying to throw a meatball to Wallner there, but Wallner jumped on the mistake by laying off 3 pitches in a row. 2 outs, runners on first and third. Cobb clearly missed his intended down and away spot. Wallner's OPS is 1.059. No idea why you think Lewis has anything to do with it? Wallner hasn't been hitting at the bottom of the lineup for a while, and the bottom of the lineup is where you more frequently see the type of "challenge" pitch you're alluding to.
  3. bean5302
    "With the stuff that he has and the ability to turn the ball over, sink the ball but also command his pitches very well, he's shown great feel for his offspeed stuff, his slider is ever-improving, and we consider it a weapon," Baldelli said. "And in a day where there's a lot of pitchers that pitch in a very similar fashion and the velos are through the roof and guys that have tremendous carry are all over the place everywhere you look, Randy does something different." https://www.mlb.com/news/randy-dobnak-twins-extension Aside from the direct quotes from Baldelli talking about how the Twins valued what Dobnak was already doing, arguing the Twins had the ability to force Dobnak into doing something after they signed him to a fully guaranteed contract is generally seen as the exact opposite of the balance of power. Dobnak threw fewer sliders in 2021 (33%) than he did in 2020 (35%). You seem to have a pretty strong opinion on the subject, but just doesn't seem to be backed up very well by quotes or stats.
  4. bean5302
    I probably like garlic ice cream better than onion ice cream. I don't want to eat either one.
  5. bean5302
    Should Brooks Lee remain on at the MLB level is the only question which really needs to be asked. The answer is no. Julien was demoted after 190 PA with a .205/.305/.367 .672 OPS, wRC+ 94 line. Lee currently has 110 PA with a .253/.309/.333 .642 OPS, wRC+ 81 line 1-50% vs. 51-100% of PA prior to Julien's demotion Julien = .222/.323/.531 OPS .854 wRC+ 138 vs. .193/.297/.216 OPS .513 wRC+ 56 Lee = .265/.302/.408 OPS .710 wRC+ 99 vs. .240/.316/.260 OPS .576 wRC+ 65 There are a lot of ways to analyze and compare Brooks Lee to other players, but the bottom line is he's not playing very well at all and hasn't been for a while. After his first 6 games, Lee has been .187/.262/.240 OPS .503 wRC+ 43. Exit Velo has been 84.7mph. Barrel rate 3.2%. Hard hit 19.4%. He's struggling vs almost every type of pitch with negative values against every single pitch type except splitters since then.
  6. bean5302
    You said utility players don't get paid. Mookie Betts is a utility player. He's getting paid. He's not a comp for Castro, and my prediction of 5-6yrs at $100MM+ make it pretty clear he's not in even remotely the same league. I expect a team will sign Castro with the plan to make him their every day SS.
  7. bean5302
    Arbitration generally looks at the previous 2 years from my understanding. I really have absolutely no idea how to quantify Lewis' value. Counting stats are known to be the most valuable, but traditional counting stats often reflect themselves in WAR pretty directly. Lewis doesn't play a super premium defensive position, and not a lot of his value comes from his defense so it feels like this is probably fairly good for predictions, though the data starts from almost 10 years ago, and there has been some slight (not as much as you'd think) inflation. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-super-two-compensation-update/ Say Lewis ends up with 3 WAR this year. I'd expect a $4MM super 2 value in Arb 1. I'm not sure how things will pan out, but the Twins are likely to take an aggressive stance with Lewis given their tight payroll and the impact a starting arbitration salary has on the future of a player. If they can drop his Arb1 salary by $1MM, it will impact his future salaries much more.
  8. bean5302
    Dobnak had a tendon in his finger rupture with permanent damage. That's the problem. Unless the Twins held his hand down and smashed it with a hammer like some scene out of a mafia movie, I don't see the injury as the Twins' fault. Minnesota extended Dobnak quickly and early using their leverage against his limited finances to lock him up to what looked like an incredibly team friendly deal. They clearly valued the pitcher he was.
  9. bean5302
    Just because you want to label him as a utility player does not mean a signing team would view him or use him as a "utility player." The same way players are signed and moved around depending on a team's need. Mookie Betts probably qualifies as a "utility player" as you describe the term. He's played a mix of CF/2B/SS over the past few years for the Dodgers. He's making pretty good money at 12 years and $365MM.
  10. bean5302
    Castro's on pace for about 4 WAR this year, and he's solidified himself as an above average switch hitter a team can play anywhere other than catcher. Most teams, I think, would be comfortable plugging him in as a starter at 2B/3B/SS/LF/RF. He'll be age 28 next year. Castro is looking at a 5-6 year deal at $100MM+ easy in free agency if he puts up another 4 WAR full season value in 2025. The Twins have a shrinking payroll and long term contracts for Buxton, Correa, and Lopez eating up $70MM starting next year. Plus Vazquez, Paddack who eat up $17.5MM more. Then they have Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Royce Lewis, Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran all hitting arb1 next year. Say $17.5MM for those guys, that puts the Twins at $105MM. Dobnak eats up $3MM, Alcala costs $1.5MM. If the Twins keep all those players, then average about $1MM for everybody else on the roster, that puts the Twins awfully close to their probable max of $125MM-ish. I'm not sure where the Twins are going to find an extra $6-7MM for Castro's arb 3 status, let alone for a long term extension for him. Some of the numbers I'm seeing being floated for him are... very wishful thinking IMHO.
  11. bean5302
    Royce is my favorite Twins player. Giving him a long term contract is an absolute no-go from me. He has to prove he can remain healthy. As a Super 2, Royce will get 4 years of arbitration. How his year 1 arbitration value looks is something where I have absolutely no idea what to expect. Arb values generally rely on traditional metrics. AVG/SLG/HR that kind of stuff. Lewis' numbers are great, but he barely plays. Somebody above posted $6MM. That seems excessive to me given how little playing time Lewis has. $6MM in Arb 1 is a huge number.
  12. bean5302
    Not really. Baltimore's area overlaps other metro areas like Washington D.C. which is only 30min away which adds the Nationals, Capitals, and Wizards. So if you wanted to do a factor analysis like that, the Twins have a lot less competition, and a larger metro area population, and larger MLB home territory from which to draw.
  13. bean5302
    I suppose back on topic, if Ryan misses significant time, you'd have to assume it's either Varland or Matthews who has to take his rotation spot. I'm skeptical either one of them is MLB rotation worthy right now. We're already in a dicey spot with SWR's innings and Festa in the rotation.
  14. bean5302
    Or maybe they traded Polanco because he was in decline and they had better players on the roster already, as a side effect they expected to save some cash. Falvey made a bad deal after picking up a team option. That's not the Pohlad's fault. Falvey had a number of options on how to spend his financial assets. There were 4 potential contracts on the books he could have chosen to delete. None of these players have added major value this year. Vazquez $10MM Kepler $10.0MM (Team Option) -Polanco $10.5MM (Team Option) Farmer $6.25MM (Arb3) Subtracted from Polanco savings, all of nearly zero value this year. +Desclafani $4.0MM +Topa $1.25MM +Okert $1.06MM Other acquisitions +Santana +$5.25MM +Margot $4.0MM Neither Santana nor Margot are better than the players they blocked (Miranda & Martin). That's nearly $50MM in expenditures which could have been spent differently if Falvey felt the Pohlad's salary limits required adjustments to the roster. I blame the Pohlads for the trade deadline, not the $130MM opening day payroll.
  15. bean5302
    Not aware of Hill having pitched anywhere this year. Blake Snell made it pretty apparent a pitcher needs to ramp up. I doubt hill would be ready before mid September. Zack Greinke was wishy washy on pitching, but same type of thing. Honestly, I just don't see many options to replace a starter outside of our existing roster since the deadline has passed, and it'll take weeks to ramp up anybody who hasn't already been pitching competitively. The only name(s) that come to mind have been blacklisted by MLB. The Mexican League's regular season just ended, but there are a couple guys who have pitched in MLB who had nice seasons there. Zac Grotz, Joe Wieland. I really don't see that happening, but I don't think it'd necessarily be a horrible move to grab one of those guys on a MiLB deal if they'd want it.
  16. bean5302
    I'd prefer Zebby Matthews to Varland, even with the rough AAA results. We'll almost certainly know who it will be by Friday, though. Both Matthews tomorrow and Varland (Friday) are coming up on their spot in the Saints rotation.
  17. bean5302
    Winder isn't an option, I don't think. He hasn't thrown 3 innings or more in almost a year. Even last year, he was stretched out to long relief of 3.0-4.0 innings in just a couple games out of necessity as Winder was almost exclusively a 2.0 or less inning guy over the past 2 years.
  18. bean5302
    Lots of clubs who are in the playoff chase have lost either their ace or their #2 for significant lengths of the season, if not the whole season. Yankees, Orioles, Guardians, Diamondbacks, Astros, Braves, Dodgers, etc. It's pretty common, but those teams stacked some high upside depth into their rotations at the beginning of the season or at the deadline so the losses of a top arm weren't necessarily as catastrophic. Falvey prioritized depth players at the start of the season rather than front line starting pitching they needed. He gambled they'd be able to acquire what they needed during the season, but they they went cheap at the deadline, too. That said, losing Ryan for a short while may not even be a huge deal. Second half Joe Ryan results have been showing up for a while now. Last 8 starts: 4.60/3.10/3.27 First Half Joe Ryan ERA/FIP/xFIP 2022 - 2.99/3.99/4.75 2023 - 3.70/3.47/3.64 2024 - 3.53/3.45/3.47 Second Half Joe Ryan 2022 - 4.14/3.99/3.92 2023 - 6.09/5.43/3.99 2024 - 3.99/3.41/3.20 Still, losing him for more than a minimum stay would be potentially hard on the rotation. The available depth isn't fantastic. Varland, Dobnak, Matthews.
  19. bean5302
    I feel like this is one of those... 'I don't like what you have to say, so I'm going to continue to request more and more and more data, and every piece of data you present will be tossed by me because I don't like it.' Pitchers with 100+ innings and an ERA 3.30 or lower over the past 10 years, you'll find right around 30, which is about how many "aces" you'd expect to see in MLB at any given time. Sometimes there's a cluster of pitchers in that 3.31-3.39 range, like 2015 has 7 of those guys. 2021 = 31 2022 = 44 2023 = 20 2024 = 24 2020 = N/A 2019 = 16 2018 = 28 2017 = 19 2016 = 26 2015 = 26 The rest would take a huge amount of my time, but I didn't come to my position from the analysis of this article, I came to my position from previous analysis and just used the random data points I compiled from this article to support it. That said, just how many bad performances do you think a pitcher with a sub-3.31 ERA could really have? To get to that kind of ERA, you almost have to come up with consistent great starts.
  20. bean5302
    The Twins haven't played any of those teams recently, except the Phillies, who were the best team in baseball before the Twins took the series and pushed them to the brink of a sweep. Meanwhile, the Twins have beaten the teams who've been the best in MLB since June 1st on a regular basis, and in fact, the TWINS are the 5th best team in the MLB since 6/1 (31-23). Min (2-1) vs. Ari #1 (35-20) .636 Min (1-2) vs. NYM #2 (35-20) .636 Min (3-2) vs. Hou #3 (32-22) .593 Min (2-1) vs. Bos* #4 (31-22) .585 Minnesota Twins #5 (31-23) .574 The Twins haven't played Boston since June 1 so I included their earlier series result.
  21. bean5302
    I don't think the Twins wanted to transform Dobnak as much as Dobnak wanted to transform himself into a legitimate MLB rotation arm. He has permanent ligament damage to his middle finger, and it will never heal back to where it was prior to the rupture so he needed to make changes. Based on his results, and his lack of command, it seems like he's not quite there yet. He probably looks a lot better if Buxton was playing CF last night, but even under advanced metrics, he's been borderline serviceable. The slider and changeup are almost identical, and that kind of reduces Dobnak to a 2 pitch pitcher. To compound that, the sinker has the same movement profile as the changeup so hitters know what direction all his pitches are going to move, just not exactly how much they'll move.
  22. bean5302
    It's a pity Martin can tell where the ball will be when he's running the base paths, just not so much when he's playing CF, haha.
  23. bean5302
    FIP is a predictive stat, but as we approach a full season, ERA is more important to me. What actually happened vs. what a spreadsheet thinks should have happened. Looking at FIP vs. ERA, you can get a feel for how you might expect things to play out going forward. At a team level, having the two be way out of sync is unusual so you might expect a correction going forward. I prefer bWAR over fWAR for pitchers when looking at multiple years, but I generally prefer fWAR over bWAR during the season.
  24. bean5302
    I find Buxton's contract and production to be pretty difficult to quantify. In terms of raw production, I think Buxton's contract is worth it on a year to year basis comparing it to "free agency" value. But, Buxton wasn't a free agent, and teams pay more like $2.5MM/WAR on average because of cost controlled players. Furthermore, the $8MM per WAR value is what teams actually get, not what they try to pay. It seems to me teams try to buy WAR at $6MM, but players often underperform expectations due to injury or decline. The resulting net cost winds up being $8MM. I don't believe for a single second any team in baseball would have given Buxton north of 3 years had he hit free agency after the 2021 season, and the inability of the Twins to find a trade partner when they were trying to move him in 2021 should have made it more clear how the rest of the league valued him. In that regard, I think the Twins overpaid market value by a country mile. After 2022's 3.5 fWAR season, again hampered by a half season on the IL, I doubt Buxton could have gotten more than 2 years at $40MM. Buxton should always be backed up by an MLB caliber starting center fielder because expecting more than about 80 games a year out of him is unreasonable. In a full year, which will 100% never happen, Buxton is a 5-6 WAR player. Perennial All Star Caliber. He's never going to win an MVP or come close to it because he can't get on base, but his fielding and power more than make up for that, in the half season where he's healthy. I thought the Buxton extension reeked of panic by the front office, and I still think it was a panic button decision. It was a bad decision overall, but the impact wasn't felt until the Pohlad's decided to reverse course on their commitment to the team and process.
  25. bean5302
    Pablo Lopez through 8/6 2023 - 4.01 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 3.42 xFIP 2024 - 4.74 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 3.30 xFIP I feel pretty strongly people are misremembering Lopez's 2023 performance based on his outstanding playoff results. Similar to Jack Morris getting credit for "Game 7" despite him hardly being close to elite across his career. Lopez is a case of "he should be better" but he's generally not. He did have an insane little run with 3 starts in a row not allowing a run 8/7-8/18 last year, but outside that and a couple games right at the start of the season, he was pretty much a 4.00 ERA guy all year.
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