bean5302

I don't think it's accurate to say Larnach "is" better than his results. He was better than his already great results for a short period of time, but it feels like he's pretty much been as expected since then. Over his past 20 games back to July 10th, .254/.362/.407 OPS .769 wRC+ 124 seems reasonable. He's definitely improved his value by being more aggressive at the plate in terms of swinging at borderline stuff, and just trying to make contact rather than waiting for what he thinks is the perfect 4 seam fastball to crush. That said, Larnach is being heavily platooned. Even if he played 162 games in a year with how he's been utilized this year, he would not qualify by having 3.1 PA/G.

That'd probably wind up being really ugly. Take a 44 year old guy with a 5-something ERA last year and throw him into the rotation immediately without having pitched a single competitive game in a year. Talk to an elite pitcher like Blake Snell about how simulated games prepare you 100% for MLB action, let alone an 88mph (hopefully 88) veteran looking for a last shot at a championship.

Kirilloff is eligible to come off the 60 day IL in 6 days I think, but given the fact there's been basically no news it seems highly improbable he'll be off the list any time soon, I'll give you that.

The Twins didn't dump much salary, and they didn't get any value in return for the salary they picked up. That's the issue with the trade. As the teams who were a good fit for Polanco dropped off the list like flies, it became apparent Falvey had overplayed his hand. Polanco $10.5MM Desclafani ($4MM) Topa ($1.25MM) Bowen (A+ MiLB) Gonzalez (A+ MiLB) Net savings $5.25MM Bowen and especially Gonzalez are nice on the prospect list, but they were many years away.

The Escobar trade still doesn't look fantastic when you consider net present value. When you trade assets from a team seeking to be immediately competitive, having your acquisitions not help the team for 3-4 years isn't ideal. I think both the Diamondbacks and Twins won the Escobar trade in the end, though. Same thing with the Blue Jays and Twins in the Berrios deal. Martin was the real headliner and he's a utility player at best. It took years for SWR to provide value for what was one of the most coveted starting pitchers on the market with 1.5yrs of control.

Funderburk DFA? He'd be claimed instantaneously. Pre-arb. 2 more option years, 2027 earliest eligibility for arbitration 1. Dobnak could get DFA'd, but the Twins clearly trusted him more than Boushley or Plutko, and right now, the depth in the rotation is thin ice. Dobnak probably wouldn't get claimed at this point so it's likely he'd pass through. Caleb Thielbar is certainly on the short list as well for veteran players. Kirilloff is a potential DFA as he's going to be non-tendered this offseason. Ronny Henriquez, maybe Matt Canterino given the fact he hasn't pitched competitively in years and he's already 26.

Honestly, people are way too worried. It shows how poorly this organization has developed talent by attaching big kid gloves to everybody. If they're ready, they're ready, but this organization has frequently log jammed talent far behind mediocre depth for whatever reason, be it extra team control or needing to polish some very rough ore. I was ready for Matthews to be called up directly out of AA. You do not perform at that level and not have what it takes to be serviceable. I'm sure some fans are thinking back to Berrios, who pitched in more pitcher friendly leagues. Matthews is age 24. It is totally normal for top prospects drafted out of college to make it to MLB in this timeline. 2-3 years is normal. If they're not in MLB by year 3, they're behind schedule, and if they're not in MLB by year 4, they've probably washed out. ERA/FIP/xFIP 2015 AA - 3.08/3.09/2.88 - 9.13 K/9, 2.38 BB/9 2016 AAA - 2.51/2.91/2.89 - 10.10 K/9, 2.91 BB/9 <-- Year Berrios was called up vs. Matthews 2024 AA - 1.95/2.00/2.56 - 10.25 K/9, 0.98 BB/9 2024 AAA - 5.68/4.14/2.96 - 10.89 K/9, 0.47 BB/9 While Matthews' ERA is rough at 5.68 in AAA, his FIP is right in line with the area of what Festa's was, and Matthews owns a 2.96 xFIP. Excellent K rates and elite walk rates with an above average WHIP in a hitter friendly AAA league. Matthews' results are more impressive than Berrios for what it's worth. Though Matthews is also a couple years older than Berrios. I suppose it might be a toss up of maturity vs. expected improvement. Who knows? I don't agree with Matthews having a lack of command. There is utterly no way a pitcher can have 80 grade control while throwing upper 90s, get elite results, but have poor command. There is room for improvement in placement, but to say he doesn't have at least good "command" doesn't make sense to me. High K rate, low BB rate. That combination is incompatible with being unable to throw the ball where you want it or even not having plus command without absolutely filthy stuff. Matthews doesn't have much experience dealing with hitters as polished as AAA/MLB hitters are, but that's where his catcher is going to be critical. No electronic strike zone, and hopefully he gets a decent umpire so he can get a consistent strike zone he can work with. He doesn't have to go out there and throw a perfect game. It'll be great to see him pitch.

The Twins lineup really has laid a couple eggs the last 2 games. Both games were totally winnable. Wasting that effort by SWR really hurts after this loss.

D.C. is much bigger than Baltimore. Way bigger than the Twin Cities metro, too. The Nationals really ate into Baltimore's potential fan base. Even Philadelphia pulls from not too far from Baltimore, which is just 100mi away. The Pirates nip at the Orioles' fanbase to the NW. From an MLB perspective, Baltimore has been a pretty small market. https://www.vividseats.com/blog/most-popular-mlb-teams-by-state-county/map

Tough to say what the Twins could have gotten for Polanco. Falvey has a reputation for waiting out the market instead of being aggressive early. It looked more to me like Falvey overplayed his hand. He's failed to get out from under multiple contracts the Twins weren't expected to keep over the years. The Twins would have been better off declining their option on Polanco. The fact Falvey wasn't aware of Polanco's value or more aware of his payroll situation before they had to choose whether or not to pick up the option was a failure on his part.

Hopefully, the cleanup will address Stewart's shoulder going forward. If there was/is structural damage found, like 90% career over.

Detroit and Chicago asked for Walker Jenkins, Brooks Lee or Emmanuel Rodriguez for Flaherty or Fedde was what was insinuated by Falvey and reported by media. Media also reported the Twins were countering with Keaschall as the headliner for those types of deals. Would Keaschall's UCL injury have prevented him from being coveted by those teams? Ehh... probably not since neither one of them were going to compete this year and Keaschall is expected to be 100% next year. Keaschall was also playing well at the time. https://www.startribune.com/highly-rated-twins-prospect-luke-keaschall-set-to-undergo-season-ending-surgery/600993828 Keaschall hasn't played at 2B/CF since 7/9, just before the All Star Futures Game where he only had a single PH at bat in the 6th. Seems reasonable to conclude the injury was known about at that point, and based on the fact Keaschall was in the futures game with that restriction, that the rest of the league was probably aware Keaschall was dealing with an issue.

Yep. Both teams lost this trade. The Twins got nothing back they needed from moving Polanco and the Mariners got a bad season. Better scenario for both teams? Twins decline Polanco's option and Seattle acquires a better 2B.

What added "mentorship" can Rich Hill add that Caleb Thielbar couldn't/doesn't already provide?

Festa's improved a lot after he stopped trying to be something he isn't (a control pitcher) in his first couple starts. It's improved how his stuff works Stuff+ Fastball 105 (average). 50 grade Slider 120 (plus pitch) 60 grade Changeup 78 (borderline MLB caliber). 35 grade That profile might allow him to stick in the rotation, but comparing him to potential ace-like results pitchers? Both Cease and Glasnow have multiple plus pitches, and neither of them are throwing a pitch as dicey as Festa's changeup, though I do expect Festa's change will at least grade into the 40 range as his opportunities increase. Cease Fastball 124 (plus pitch) 60 grade Slider 132 (plus pitch) 60 grade K. Curve 109 (average) 50 grade Glasnow Fastball 119 (plus pitch) 60 grade Sinker 102 (average) 50 grade Slider 110 (borderline plus) 55 grade Curve 141 (plus plus) 70 grade Festa's been looking good out there in a number of ways recently, including limiting fly balls which reduces the homers, but he's done it pretty unconventionally. By becoming a "line drive" pitcher, which would normally be the worst possible scenario. Still, he's been limiting hard contact over his last couple starts. Have to see what happens as Festa is definitely putting up some weirdo outlier stats right now, haha.

As I was reading that I was like woooooooooowwww. All aboard the ultra hype train.

Starts with 5.0 innings pitched and an ERA under 4.00 10/20 (50%) Starts with 5.0 innings pitched an an FIP under 4.00 10/20 (50%) Last 3 starts 4.2 IP, 6.91 ERA, 5.06 FIP, 4.03 xFIP Last 5 starts 5.0 IP, 4.74 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 3.43 xFIP Woods Richardson definitely isn't looking dominant, but he is certainly doing his part, and last night's start looked really great in person using the eye test as well as the actual runs on the board. Giving up 2HRs wasn't so good, but since they were solo shots, they didn't really hurt.

I was encouraged seeing the velocity for Winder on the scoreboards. Winder's chronic shoulder had robbed him of a fair amount of velocity. He was sitting 96ish in the high minors as a starter and touching 97-98 when he was absolutely dominant as I recall. I felt like Winder's ceiling could have been as high as a #2ish guy back then. If Winder is able to keep his average velo in that 95-96 range, he could be very good out of the bullpen, but he's never going to return to the rotation without some time being injury free.

It's not going to happen. SWR is a fly ball pitcher and he's been lucky with HR's so far. It's at 0.97 right now, which is already good. xFIP says 4.24 vs. FIP at 3.79. There's more HR regression to come, but if they're all solo shots, it'll be lucky and great for him.

Rich Hill is 44 years old, hasn't pitched in nearly a year and was ineffective last year putting up the worst ERA he's had since 2013 and the worst FIP he's had since 2009. I guess Hill was serviceable early, but his xFIP sat in that 4.50-5.00 range the entire season. I'm not sure why there's interest since we have Dobnak, Boushley and Plutko on the roster already. I don't believe Rich Hill is likely better than any of them, let alone all of them. If the Twins sign Hill, I think the likelihood of Boushley or Plutko getting DFA'd and released is very high. A Matthews promotion likely results in Morris getting promoted as well.

You're right. Sorry I brought stats into the equation. Your personal opinion of players you like or dislike is a far more acceptable basis of evaluating player value.

Thanks! Only the highly dedicated professionals are good enough to be paid employees of MLB and keep their positions despite their calls being reviewed and open to official complaints. Official scorers are required to have in depth knowledge of MLB rules, and every city has to have at least 1 official scorer attend meetings to review controversial calls and discuss plays. It seems like an underpaid and under appreciated profession. I don't think I'm up to that level of commitment, though.

The Twins can expect a 5.00ish ERA, lots of hard contact, hits and home runs. Varland's stuff plays up out of the bullpen, but it's unlikely to get the job done in the rotation. He struggled in AAA for a reason this year. In 7 starts at the MLB level this year, zero are considered "quality starts" by the traditional definition. By mine, 5.0+ innings, ERA under 4.00, he's got 1. In 15 starts in the MiLB system with the Saints, Varland owns a 1.43 WHIP (identical to Randy Dobnak). Simply put, way too many people put on base. A 1.43 WHIP would probably put Varland at the edge of serviceable at the MLB level. Projecting it up from MiLB to MLB isn't promising. Varland could potentially be a strong asset to the Twins out of the bullpen. The likely loss of Joe Ryan for the rest of the year and the definitive loss of Brock Stewart puts the Twins in a bind since they didn't do much at the deadline, but Varland is likely only a solution out of the pen. Hopefully, David Festa can continue to prove me wrong and Zebby Matthews looks good. It's a bad spot to be in for the Twins.

Sure. Of the 376 hitters in MLB with 350+ PA in the past 2 years, Matt Wallner ranks 8th (top 2%). 350 PA, all connected together, including hot streaks and slumps, is not a small sample size. It's not ideally large, but it's getting pretty significant. Where was Wallner in his 33 plate appearances out of the gate this year? He was getting called 3rd strikes on pitches 3" out of the strike zone. He was slumping. Where was Aaron Judge in his 35 plate appearances between 7/3-711? .129/.229/.129 OPS .358 wRC+ 12. Slumps happen. Wallner is 26. Where was Wallner in Sept/Oct last year? Just hitting .284/.411/.514 OPS .925 wRC+ 157. Just 1 position player qualified last year. Carlos Correa. Just 2 position players may qualify this year. Only switch hitters Castro and Santana need apply. If you're a RHB or LHB and you aren't on a contract for $15MM+ per year with the Twins, do not expect to play every day.

Varland allowed 8 hits in 4.2 innings. If the plays were so egregiously bad, they would have been ruled an error. I didn't see any "plays that should have been made." Are you talking about the very difficult play where Ramirez singled off the glove of Castro, just multiplying that one play x4? Castro managed to get a glove on it with a 100% effort dive running the opposite way. He got a lot of glove on the ball, it should have been caught. That said, Ramirez is a pretty fast runner. Even if Castro manages to grab that medium speed grounder, to then get up, spin, and make a 110 foot throw and still nab Ramirez? Most players without Carlos Correa's arm have little chance at that. Castro had already made a heck of a nice play fielding a hopper that bounced over Varland's head which could have been a hit earlier in the game.