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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    The Twins would certainly benefit from Paddack's return to pitching. Even if it was out of the bullpen. Minnesota needs to get out from under his $7.5MM contract if they can. The Twins have a ton of money locked up in Correa NTC, Lopez, Buxton NTC, Vazquez and Paddack compared to their expected max payroll around $125MM. $36MM + $21.5MM + $15MM + $10MM + $7.5MM = $90MM. Dobnak is $3MM, Alcala is $1.5MM. Then buyouts for Farmer and Jackson at $0.5MM. That puts the Twins at $95MM. Roughly $30MM to spend on 19 players, including guys in line for big raises. $4.5MM Joe Ryan Arb 1 $4.5MM Bailey Ober Arb 1 $3MM Griffin Jax Arb 1 $2MM Jhoan Duran Arb 1 $1MM Brock Stewart Arb 1 $8MM Willi Castro Arb 3 $5MM Royce Lewis Arb 1 $3MM Ryan Jeffers Arb 1 $2MM Trevor Larnach Arb 1 $1.5MM Alex Kirilloff Arb 2 If the Twins don't shed any of these guys, that puts us at about $130MM, plus another $8MM to round out the 26 man roster near league minimum so $138MM. This is the true payroll situation the Twins find themselves in. Probably needing to find about $10-15MM of payroll shedding someplace assuming no signings.
  2. bean5302
    Vazquez isn't hitting particularly well, he's regressing to expected values. Before 6/1 = .165/.184/.202. 1.7% BB, 25.0% K. BABIP .210. Exit Velo 90.1mph. 3.6% Brl, 35.7% Hard From 6/1 = .288/.325/.523. 5.7% BB, 14.8% K. BABIP .292. Exit Velo 86.8mph. 6.2% Brl, 34.0% Hard His average exit velocity has dropped down to the basement of MLB hitters since 6/1 and his hard hit rate has even declined. On the plus side, he's barreled a few more balls up despite still being a pretty poor value, and he's converted some K's to BBs and contact. His rolling xwOBA has remained under MLB average the entire season, including even now so there shouldn't be any expectation Vazquez has become a good hitter, just that he's getting some good luck to offset his bad luck to start the year.
  3. bean5302
    It's being considered, but I'd be surprised if it was actually pushed through. Regardless of whether or not there is any science of any type behind it, pitch counts exceeding 100 by much are uncommon, and with today's focus on strikeouts, pitchers can hit that limit before 6 innings. Fatigue leads to sloppy mechanics which leads to major injury. There would probably have to be a stipulation for pitch count or something and that would defeat the whole purpose of the considered rule. It's worth noting most pitchers already pitch 6+ innings per start with regularity. Flaherty has the lowest number of innings of any qualified starters. He's gone 6.0+ innings in 13 of 21 starts. I looked at the league a couple years ago. The average starting pitcher goes 6 innings like 70% of the time. Baldelli has typically brandished a quick hook so some proposed rule change to lengthen starts might impact his spreadsheet in the future, but a 6 inning rule seems awfully unlikely to happen to me.
  4. bean5302
    More than top notch prospects, Berrios was moved for what were supposed to be near MLB ready prospects, not guys who needed 3 years more in the minors. The trade has not worked out as intended, but thankfully, Woods Richardson looks like he'll be able to stick in MLB at this point. It's a big deal SWR has turned a corner. Morris, Festa, Matthews = Winder, Balazovic, Canterino, Sands, Duran, etc. I remain hopeful our prospects can work out, but for every pitching prospect the Twins have developed, there have been 3-4 sure fire rotation pieces who haven't been able to make it as starters.
  5. bean5302
    Prospects are about trying to figure out what a player can bring to the table. Varland and Woods Richardson have both eclipsed rookie status. I don't consider either one a prospect at this point. You could just as well toss Bailey Ober in here (even though he's older than Pablo Lopez). Festa's been getting results, but I'm not on board the bandwagon. Festa has a 4.00 ERA/FIP in AAA and a 5.00 ERA/FIP at the MLB level. That HR rate, the lack of control, and the quality of his stuff concerns me. Matthews looked pretty good in his first MLB start. His Stuff+ results are impressive, though the sample size is way too small yet. He'll need a couple more starts before things start to stabilize at all. All 5 of his pitches look to be solid MLB quality. Fastball = 50 grade (95) Changeup = 50 grade (94) Cutter = 55 grade (112) Slider = 55 grade (117) Curve = 55 grade (112) This is my view of how things appear to work out based on the numbers and other pitchers. 60 = 30 Unfit for MLB 70 = 35 80 = 40 Below Average 90 = 45 100 = 50 MLB Average 110 = 55 120 = 60 Plus 130 = 65 140 = Plus Plus 70 150 = 75 160 = 80 Elite
  6. bean5302
    I used a standard deviation formula in Excel to create the brackets. I found a post I had on Keirsey earlier this year where I performed the same exercise based on a 2023 sample, less the standard deviation. RF/9 is hardly perfect, but a couple years in a row where Keirsey puts up numbers which are pretty middle of the pack is at least approaching a significant sample. He's not going to be a plus fielder at the MLB level.
  7. bean5302
    I can't see a way the Twins can pony up for Castro at $7MM+ in Arb 3 with free agency looming for him, and Brooks Lee is one of the slowest runners in all of MLB (25.8 ft/sec) so he can't really replace Margot directly because there's no chance he could cover an outfield position. Lee is significantly slower than Trevor Larnach (26.2 ft/sec), and he's even sitting at a sprint speed slower than Carlos Santana (26.0 ft/sec). I suppose you could move Lee to 3rd base, but Brooks Lee's bat hasn't been MLB worthy, either as Austin Martin has the same OPS as Brooks Lee at a OPS .642. Martin is the better offensive player since he's an asset on the basepaths.
  8. bean5302
    I can't imagine a scenario where it would be a good idea to sign Desclafani on anything other than a MiLB contract. A MiLB contract without an opt out? Sure. If the Twins have liked working with him, that's not an issue. So long as he's not taking up a spot on the 40 man.
  9. bean5302
    DaShawn Keirsey's batting line has been slipping since May when he went on the IL for a bit. 6/22+ = .253/.316/.376 OPS .692 wRC+ 79. With Buxton out, the Twins are in a pretty rough spot for CF coverage, but Keirsey is getting passed over yet again. It's for a reason. He's gotten a lot of accolades about his fielding, but I haven't found his fielding numbers in the minors to be impressive in the least. As I recall, his RF/9 (not great as a stat, but it's what I have to work with) looked well below average last year, but this year he's in the average grouping. That said, it's pretty shocking the lack of prospect depth at CF across the league. I mean... look at those journeyman ages! I include Austin Martin's career all level MiLB CF numbers since he just doesn't have enough sample size at AAA this year to compare. I continue to suspect Keirsey will perform similarly to Austin Martin in CF. This year RF/9, Primary CF's in the International League (AAA) Elite TOR = a26 Eden 2.88 TBR = a26 Misner 2.88 Plus STL = a23 Scott II 2.72 DET = a24 Meadows 2.70 WAS = a29 Call 2.66 MIA = a22 Mesa 2.65 Average Austin Martin all levels 2.61 MIN = a27 Keirsey 2.59 CHC = a22 Crow-Armstong 2.54 NYY = a27 Lockridge 2.53 PHI = a27 Stevenson 2.52 ATL = a28 Martinez 2.47 Below average MIL = a27 Roller 2.41 NYM = a33 Thompson 2.40 CHW = a33 Ortega 2.37 KCR = a25 Waters 2.33 BOS = a29 Contreras 2.32 (yes, that Contreras) CIN = a25 Dunn 2.31 CLE = a29 Straw 2.28 Unplayables PIT = a25 Celestino 2.11 (yes, that Celestino) BAL = a29 Johnson 2.10
  10. bean5302
    Bottom of photo: Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (photo of C.J. Culpepper)
  11. bean5302
    Still a negative WAR player who can't be used to cover the one position he was needed to cover. I struggle to see any real value Margot is providing to this team. He had that little blip of performance, but it was nothing more than that.
  12. bean5302
    I worked in executive compensation, business planning and investments for over 20 years. You don't appear to have even a rudimentary grasp on how businesses are run or why they're run that way. The Pohlads have run the Twins like most owners have run their teams. It's not a matter of net value. In a very crude example, buy a house, but make no house payments for a year. Invest those payments into a kitchen remodel and a new roof. Then try to refinance and tell your mortgage company it's okay because the house went up in value. I'm not going further on this, but I strongly suggest everybody who thinks cash flow or net operating income is not relevant to large businesses take a few weeks to really learn about finances. If you don't understand the basics of your life insurance policy or your retirement account or you don't think you could do your own taxes, take some time and learn all that stuff. Even if you don't think it helps you now or for 10 or 20 years, it likely will save you some enormous stress and sleepless nights down the road.
  13. bean5302
    I'm not sure what you mean? I think almost everybody recognizes Buxton will never have a full season or a particularly healthy one, right? He's got chronic back issues, chronic hip issues, migraines, and after his last couple surgeries, he's expected to have chronic knee inflammation. Those issues are never going away. They're chronic health problems for him while his job is to be a professional athlete. He's also dealt with some wrist issues, and he's like any other player when it comes to other potential acute injuries. If your expectation is higher than 80 games a year for Buxton, well, I think you're going to be disappointed most years. If your expectation is 100+ games a year, you're just setting yourself up for disappointment because that's unreasonable. He's played 90 games this year already, and he'll probably hit 100 games this year while accruing the most plate appearances he's made since 2017, and he's also been productive. That's a huge win for him and the Twins based on reasonable expectations. Buxton is what he is. Accepting what he is and resetting your expectations would probably help eliminate some of the annoyance you feel, I think. It feels like you're still in the belief Buxton could play a 150 game season or put together a run on an MVP or something? That's just not going to happen. He's a valuable player who you can count on for a 3-4 WAR partial season. I'm thankful last year's production wasn't decline and he's still able to help the Twins while he's on the field this year. His contract is a major burden on the payroll limits the Pohlads seem to have set, and the Twins have exactly zero quality replacements for him on the roster. The Twins need Buxton to perform at his best for those 80 games a year.
  14. bean5302
    Pitch framing has not appeared to be repeatable from year to year for most catchers. I don't like it much as a stat since it's not consistent. I suspect it has a lot to do with the pitchers themselves, combined with catcher height.
  15. bean5302
    First off all, putting player on waivers means irrevocable only at this point. There are only two waivers options left. 1) Outright waivers. - Any team can claim the contract, if the player passes through waivers, they can be outrighted off the 40 man. Any player with 5 years of service time can reject the outright. Any player with 3+ years of service time or having been previously outrighted can opt for free agency instead of accepting the outright. 2) Unconditional release waivers. Used when the player is going to reject the outright. At the end of the waiver, the player is released and the waiving team would then be responsible for all remaining money for the existing contract. There are no trades. Period. Thus NTC's do not apply. Any players on the new team's roster prior to 9/1 are eligible for the playoffs.
  16. bean5302
    The Pohlad family has always been focused on the business aspect of baseball. It's not that they do not want to win, it's they won't accept a business losing money. That's just a family thing. Carl Pohlad was immensely successful while cultivating a reputation as a very generous, honorable and charitable person. He did not accept losses from his businesses. That's something which has been instilled into his sons who own the Twins. I will fault the Pohlad's on what I feel is a short-sightedness, and poor business management issues (nepotism, lack of accountability, poor management choices) and a failure to make mistakes up to their customer base this year (TV debacle), but there are precious few major sports owners willing to lose money in terms of net operating income or run a negative cash flow as a practice.
  17. bean5302
    It's a game of cat and mouse. Lefties are pitching him different, and Castro will need to adjust. When Castro adjusts to the new game plan by lefties, they'll look for yet the next game plan trying to find a weakness. That's how scouting and analytics works these days. Castro's sample size has gotten fairly big at this point. In 521 career PA vs. lefties, he owns a .700 OPS and a wRC+ 95. Considering his defensive versatility and value, he's going to continue to play every day.
  18. bean5302
    Falvey's front office has a long history of developing poor fielders. Quality fielding is not something we're going to see coming up from the minors from this front office. Theoretical versatility is their focus name of the game. What's the last good fielder the Twins have developed under Falvey? Go ahead. Take a minute to think about it. Rooker? Larnach? Julien? Polanco? Gordon? Miranda? Martin? Kirilloff? Jeffers? Kepler, Sano and Buxton all reached the majors under Terry Ryan. The Twins ditched their only premier fielding prospect in recent years, Noah Miller, a prospect who looks like a perennial gold glover if his bat can play. Brooks Lee has looked good in ultra small sample sizes, but he's also had a couple costly misplays not to mention Brooks Lee came into the Twins' organization well coached and out of college with great defensive instincts to begin with. Advocating a top tier athlete who plays a premium defensive position be moved to first base seems to border on trolling. If Lewis wants to become an elite 3B, he can. If Lewis wants to become a good SS, he can. He's got the tools. Now he needs decent coaching, effort, and experience.
  19. bean5302
    The Twins got lucky Varland allowed only 3 ER on 8 hits and a walk, including 2HR given his 7.01 FIP. It was a start which didn't bury the Twins, but the lack of offense again is getting old. They're scoring more than 3 runs a game barely 50% of the time back through the Mets series. We need more consistent offensive production. It was a winnable game again today, just like the last two flops against Cleveland.
  20. bean5302
    Steamer projections: Randy Dobnak** - 3.92 ERA, 7.39 K/9, 2.95 BB/9 David Festa - 4.00 ERA, 9.09 K/9, 3.03 BB/9 Zebby Matthews - 4.03 ERA, 7.43 K/9, 1.73 BB/9 Caleb Boushley - 4.26 ERA, 6.47 K/9, 1.81 BB/9 Andrew Morris - 4.47 ERA, 6.59 K/9, 2.53 BB/9 Adam Plutko* - 4.60 ERA, 7.16 K/9, 2.58 BB/9 Rich Hill - 4.64 ERA, 7.31 K/9, 3.17 BB/9 *Plutko is on the 7 day IL with a forearm strain. No word I've seenon how bad it is or expected return. **Other projections are much more pessimistic than Steamer with ERA's from 4.26 just over 5.00 I really don't get why people are so convinced Hill will be even serviceable at the MLB level. Or ready before September for that matter. He'd also have to be better than a number of options in the system already. Projection tools are hardly perfect, but for a seasoned veteran like Rich Hill, they're certainly worth noting, and they're not biased by people's opinions, fond memories or ideology. He's dead last among the pitchers listed above in Steamer projections for ERA. I didn't include Varland since steamer projects him as a reliever.
  21. bean5302
    Did you read that part about performance? Do I need to spell that out for you? It's always always the same with you. Ask for data, *&^(*&^ on the data, ask for more data, *&^*&^& n on the data, create a strawman, over and over and over and over and over. Ignore. Oh, I can't ignore. You're a "Community Leader" What a laugh.
  22. bean5302
    Prospect rank is important. It's important to the teams who have control over the prospect and teams who are looking to acquire talent as well. Prospect rank is a competition in it's own right for teams. Morris is probably knocking at the top 100 door. Soto? I'm not sure about that. Fangraphs had him way down in the Twins' system at 15th or so in their mid year update. Soto wasn't expected to move fast because of how raw he was so him still being in A ball over a year after being drafted isn't terrible. Fangraphs' scouting report indicates the Twins had him working a lot on his changeup rather than looking for best performance so the rough ERA can be overlooked as well. Still, there isn't much room in a top 100 prospect's list, and it'd represent a major leap. Production alone probably doesn't get him there. He's going to need to move up a level and produce IMHO.
  23. bean5302
    Keith Law partnered on an article a couple years ago. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/2662173/2021/06/21/law-are-high-draft-picks-getting-to-the-majors-faster-than-ever/ If you have a college draftee who hasn’t broken through to the majors or at least merited a call up within 36 months of his draft date, the odds of him becoming even a solid regular are probably pretty low. The article talks about the average time to debut (median) increasing for college players from 786 to 1,058 days (up from 2.2 to 2.9 years), and performance correlates with call up time. Of course, these are top draft picks, but most top prospects are also going to be high round draft picks. Matthews is a top prospect at this point. Expectations have changed. His performance outweighs his draft pedigree so his call up to the majors is "normal" in terms of time frame. The bottom line is if you think Matthews is good, he's getting his shot in a pretty normal time frame at 750ish days (2.1 years) recalling the "median average" is still a little under 3 years.
  24. bean5302
    Oh, back to the topic. Larnach puts the ball in play, and though he's a poor base runner due to his speed, maybe the Twins just value that? Larnach is probably more of a traditional #6 guy
  25. bean5302
    I don't think there's much chance Festa is in AAA this year. Both Paddack and Ryan are likely done for the season and Varland is better suited to the bullpen after the losses of Stewart and even Topa being a long shot. Matthews probably controls his destiny. Even if Paddack is able to return, he'll likely be in the bullpen. If Ryan is able to make his return as well, I'm not sure what will happen. Seems like a pretty long shot. If Matthews is pitching extremely well, you really can't pull him from the rotation. Morris will almost certainly go to AAA in September at the latest.
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