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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    The bullpen ERA is 16th in the league. You exclude names that have failed, including failed in leverage situations (e.g., Hildenberger) and include names that have barely pitched, and/or seen zero leverage. Thanks to a strong start to the season by the starters, the bullpen is basically the least used (or most rested, if you prefer). And thanks to the offense, the bullpen has seen less leverage than any in baseball. The Twins bullpen is among the lowest in in baseball for win-probability added, and among the best in least win-probability subtracted. Again, they've seen astonishingly low leverage situations. I'd go with an assessment of 'incomplete' rather than 'strong and sturdy'.
  2. jkcarew
    For about a month now, Gonzalez showing why I thought he might be a good signing at the time. Of course, the argument to 'simply' keep/extend Escobar is as strong as ever (he's having a great year)...but, once they didn't, seems Gonzalez was a good choice given how this roster has shaped up.
  3. jkcarew
    The baseball gods are clearly pissed at us for indulging in all that major-league glee.
  4. jkcarew
    Thanks for posting, Spy. The radio broadcast today had hinted at some injuries, but I hadn't got the details. Between the injuries and the performance, it's almost as if the baseball gods are punishing us for all the major-league glee. Ouch.
  5. jkcarew
    Pretty quickly the major league club has moved off the bottom of the league in terms of K%...but only to the top of the bottom half (still ranked only 18th or so). Meanwhile, I don't see anything on the farm that's going to move that needle anytime soon. I don't consider that corner having been turned yet. And that might be what Jaffe means by 'promising' rather than 'outstanding' or even 'good'.
  6. jkcarew
    I wish someone had whispered in Adam's ear BEFORE the Angels outing "you're going to get DFA'd no matter how you pitch". It would have been a true statement (probably)...and he probably would have retired the side in order. Most importantly, I would have gotten 45 minutes more sleep that night. Honestly...how stressful is life for a AAAA pitcher under current rules and the way major-leauge bullpens are managed in today's game. I feel for Adams...and everyone (of which there are dozens) in his same situation.
  7. jkcarew
    Baldelli going with the time-honored "I'm not playing my recovering starting DH until the club scores less than 11 runs in a game" strategy.
  8. jkcarew
    Hey...we needed a catcher.
  9. jkcarew
    Finally! Now I can go from tapping my feet, to holding my breath. (Please, please! stay healthy, Wander!)
  10. jkcarew
    I'm for home runs, but a contrarian on the HR record. I don't care. I'd care if there was a non-zero chance that whatever record might be set this year, would last more than a day and a half. But there's not. MLB home runs have become what passing and receiving yards became in the NFL. The totals are meaningless on a historical basis...but you need to be toward the top of the league in a given season to be a truly dangerous team.
  11. jkcarew
    This seems very plausible. And my first reaction to Seth's comments above that he thinks Lewis still may be promoted to AA after the FSL all-star game...was how can they promote him as he's struggling so significantly at the A+ level? But, to your point, if he's still strong mentally/emotionally...it might be good for the overall development that he 'fails as hard/fast as possible', and begins making the necessary adjustments.
  12. jkcarew
    Refreshing to see how Littell finished the game. Good for him. Berrios is having a strange year, IMO. Giving up hits at a materially higher rate than last year...and striking out fewer hitter. But the extra hits must be mostly singles as the HR rate hasn't increased. And he's making up for the extra hits with a significantly lower BB rate. My take is, that he often hasn't had great control of his curve ball, and is determined to challenge hitters in the strike zone with fastballs rather than give up walks. He might be a small adjustment from being better than we've ever seen him. He strikes me as a bit of a throw-back...where he doesn't care what his numbers are or what he looks like, as long as his team gets the W. I like that.
  13. jkcarew
    I agree, his ability to get on base via the walk is a bit uncanny...especially when you consider he is slugging 299. Usually pitchers will do everything but lob the ball underhanded to avoid walking guys that slug 299. That’s slugging 40 points lower in the International League (a league with the juiced ball) than Ehire Adrianza is slugging in the majors this year.
  14. jkcarew
    At what point is it acceptable to acknowledge Lewis is having a disappointing season? He started slow. And now has hit .175 in his most recent 10 games, while striking out 13 times and walking twice. Has now played in about the same number of games at Fort Myers in 2019 as he did in 2018, and has regressed offensively across the board. Haven’t heard or read much on how the defense at short is coming along.
  15. jkcarew
    “(Graterol’s) been absurdly dominant in Double-A.” It’s a narrative that is getting kinda out of hand. Is he doing really well...great for a 20 year old? Yes. Meanwhile, Smeltzer, Poppen, Alcala all have better FIP and K/9 at Pensacola as starters. And then there’s Stashak. Graterol’s ERA benefiting from unsustainably low BABiP. So, if we’re going to continue with the Graterol is dominant in AA narrative we at least need to acknowledge the other ‘dominant’ performers there.
  16. jkcarew
    On points that his (lack of) offensive production at first base was hurting the Twins for years...it’s a fact. On all other points...I don’t care.
  17. jkcarew
    The White Sox rebuilding plan seems to be progressing nicely (for them). Damn.
  18. jkcarew
    There really is no bite to this question without context of what you're getting in return. For the right return, I'd trade anybody. Generically, the best I can go with is that middle infield and corner outfield seem to be the areas of depth in the system. It would help if Gordon can sustain his health, Javier could get healthy, and Lewis could dig out of whatever it is that's happening with him at Fort Myers this year.
  19. jkcarew
    You're kidding, right? I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and go with yes.
  20. jkcarew
    “On the league-leading average, he’s got just a .372 BABIP which also suggests that nothing is out of whack in that vein.” Maybe not completely out of whack, but 372 is a good margin higher than anything he’s been able to sustain before. Still, if teams continue to shift him, I think maybe he could sustain that.
  21. jkcarew
    Looks like yet another year where we don’t generate many save opportunities
  22. jkcarew
    Let's not confuse cause and affect too much here. Baldelli's basically never managed a team that's spent a day outside of first place. He's never managed in a race, never even managed a game in June. He has a team that's wildly over-achieving and playing .667 baseball. It's been beyond easy to spread playing time, and portray a 'soft'/patient vibe. Fast forward to a hypothetical 2020 scenario. It's mid-July, and the Twins with high expectations, have been under-performing for weeks, and were just beat 3 games to 1 in a series against the upstart White Sox to fall into a tie for first place in the central. Tougher to stick with the ideal rotations at that point. And what demeanor will everyone (including leaders in the clubhouse) be looking for from Baldelli in that scenario? Every good manager has to have the 'coddling' card AND the 'field general' card in their toolbox. There were plenty of 'field managers'...the ones that did it right...that had the respect of their players. That will still be possible, I think. Every reason to be optimistic regarding Baldelli, but too early to pigeon-hole him into a category, IMO.
  23. jkcarew
    Probably worth describing the 'weakness' in context of regular season vs playoffs. For instance, it looks like the starting rotation will probably be a strength overall in the quest to win enough games to take the central division. Yet in the playoffs, where the top 3 start all games (practically), it would be very easy to argue that Berrios would likely be the worse number one among AL participants.
  24. jkcarew
    One of the things that has made the season so fun so far, is also one of the fundamental 'weaknesses' (of sorts). The schedule. The Twins have played 16 games...tied for least in MLB...against teams with winning records. Not the Twins fault, and they're 8-8 so far. But with the way the league is now, you really don't know where you stand at any point in the season until you can play a series or two against one of the few teams that is both trying to compete, and decent at trying. IMO, we'll need to continue to look at the intermittent series against the Yankees, Boston (they'll be there), Tampa, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Cleveland (I guess)...to determine where the Twins are on their path to making noise in the post-season.
  25. jkcarew
    Apparently cement under the natural turf there at the Big A (or whatever name it goes by this month)
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