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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    No evidence that Rocco considers anyone (that we’ve seen so far) a legitimate major league shortstop option (besides Polanco) other than Adrianza. We might think he should, or hope he does, consider Arraez and/or Gonzalez an option at short...but there’s no evidence to suggest that. Two innings in an 18-4 game (where Arraez was still ultimately replaced by Adrianza) doesn’t qualify.
  2. jkcarew
    This. Castro has been healthy, plus rested, plus seeing almost exclusively right-handed pitching. He’ll regress some, but it’s a good formula for some level of sustainable improvement.
  3. jkcarew
    14th in wRC+...also middle-ish. Then again, only 13 first-basemen better offensively than ours. Pretty significant improvement over recent years.
  4. jkcarew
    I’m in. Promote Smeltzer now, please!
  5. jkcarew
    But, not being a plus defender at SS is much different than not being a plus defender at 2nd. By all accounts, Gordon has much better range and arm than Arraez, and Gordon would have much better major-league defensive potential than Arraez. Offensively, I think I agree with you...although Gordon has some power potential that Arraez doesn't seem to have, and Gordon is much more of a threat on the bases.
  6. jkcarew
    From what I can tell, this is a guy you want to find a spot for where his defense doesn't kill you...and keep him there. Arm, range, hands...nothing seems to be above average, which is what we had heard. Offensively, this is a guy who has a career minor-league SLG barely over 400....380 over his PA's above the A level. Zero power, and doesn't seem like much chance to develop power. And doesn't run well either. He has to hit 300+ to have offensive value. The good news is, he looks the part of a 300 hitter. He looks like a throwback with that crouched stance and swing...kinda fun to see. In certain lineups where you have SLG, but need OBP (like the Twins), his bat would fit nicely. Good depth piece for 2019. Hard to say beyond that.
  7. jkcarew
    Offense is better...I think sustainably better...than I thought it would be. Bullpen is what I thought it would be...starting pitching has been a bit better than I thought it would be. I feel like it's more likely that the Twins win the division (not just because of Cleveland's injuries). I don't think it's much more likely that the Twins would do serious damage in the playoffs...even with a shored up bullpen. The starting pitching, while Odorizzi and Perez are over-performing, the top of the rotation does not match up to the top of rotations for Yankees, Houston...and Boston will be there by the end of the year, as well. But, this team could win a lot of regular season games, which would be a step, and very fun.
  8. jkcarew
    And are we sure Taylor Grzelakowski (#23) is really only 25 years old?
  9. jkcarew
    Get it. He's putting the ball in the air a bit more...and he's making contact toward the barrel more consistently. So, ON AVERAGE, the ball is traveling further. Seems real and material. But the point I was trying to make was...that often when you simplify/shorten the swing (eliminate leg kicks, other triggers etc.) you diminish the ability to hit the ball over the fence...for a period of time, as you adjust. This seems to have been the case with Buxton, particularly for the first several weeks of the season. But he's showing signs of figuring out that part of it, as well.
  10. jkcarew
    I'll play the contrarian on Graterol. He isn't dominating like the ERA might indicate. His FIP is actually 3.12, and his BB/9 and K/9 are no better than league average. In fact his K/9 is a fraction below league average which...when you have a 100 mph fastball...is usually a pretty good indication your secondary pitches are not being particularly effective. His BABiP against is extremely low right now...100 points lower than it was last year at Fort Myers. So, I'd say...he continues to progress nicely as a 20-year old starter in AA ball. But, I doubt he's ready to help at the major league level quite yet, and I want him to start as many games as possible as he continues to develop the other pitches. I do hope he gets to AAA soon.
  11. jkcarew
    The swing seems shorter and simpler. Not sure it's generating "further" hits yet...the HR rate is actually slightly below where it was from 2015-2017. But that can change as Buxton learns how to generate the power with the lower half. Garver (very short right-handed swing) seems to have figured that out. Buxton can as well. He also simply seems to be recognizing pitches better, and guessing less. But again, that's easier when the swing is shorter and you don't have to commit as early. The BABiP is higher than it's been in his career, but not ridiculously so at 343.
  12. jkcarew
    Duffey looked good that inning...bloop single and messed up force play not withstanding
  13. jkcarew
    Have to take Tony O on every road trip now, I’d think.
  14. jkcarew
    Pitchers stopped pitching from the windup...which was often the case with runners on (only) 3rd...and 3rd basemen actually started holding him like 1st basemen
  15. jkcarew
    About 3/4 of the season for Berrios now without an effective curve ball...no ability to throw it for a strike when he needs to.
  16. jkcarew
    Despite the early similarity in some obscure statistics, the 2019 Twins are almost the complete opposite of the 2015 Royals. Maybe similar in that both clubs play good defense, but that’s it. If the Twins were to pull that off...(and it seems less and less obsurd to consider)...it would be by overwhelming teams offensively. Not by winning low-scoring games with a dominant bullpen.
  17. jkcarew
    Apparently things haven’t gotten any better. Now he’s up chucking in the bullpen.
  18. jkcarew
    Kepler’s OBP of 305 is irrelevant for the conversation. Seems many are not grasping that Kepler is only the lead off hitter when facing right-handed starters. His OBP against righties is 331...not great, but better than Buxton’s 316. Meanwhile, Buxton has owned an OPS north of 800 for about one week in his entire career now...that being this past week. Maybe we move him up against lefties to see how that goes?
  19. jkcarew
    Only 30, but got paid...so, it will be interesting to see what he chooses to do. Clearly something happened around May of last year. Maybe he gets claimed. But if not, I think I'd try to take an entire season off and see if I could get a non-roster invite next spring. He has time (in his career) to get healthy. Twins didn't have time to wait, given their situation and the fact that he's not signed beyond this year. Either way, some rest without the pressure to rehab/perform might be the best thing for his career at this point. I hope so.
  20. jkcarew
    Ah....then, never mind Promoted from his 'rehab' in extended spring training, then? Yes, I concur...we're all waiting (and waiting) for that.
  21. jkcarew
    Must have read it too fast and thought we were talking about beer. Hey, the mind does what it will. (especially at my advanced...experience.)
  22. jkcarew
    I think this is a good point. But IMO, it's misleading. The bullpen was protected for a long stretch by brilliant and long starting efforts and a soft schedule. While I'm optimistic the starters can continue to be good, they aren't going to be that good...and we can see what's happened in just one cycle through the rotation when the starters were merely fair (really didn't even have any super short starts).
  23. jkcarew
    But it's not like any of the starters are in any decent place to help either....neither in starting roles nor to help the big club in temporary relief roles. The ones that were near are either hurt, ineffective, hurt and ineffective, or scarily inconsistent (Thorpe), or magically turned into ineffective relievers (Romero). I do think it will get better...but at this particular point in time, it's as if all of the options we thought we'd have have vaporized.
  24. jkcarew
    With Nick Gordon shut down (yet again)...it might give pause to release Torreyes. Even such that he is, he's a SS with some major-league experience. No evidence (yet) that they view Gonzalez as a SS option if something were to happen to Polanco and/or Adrianze. Unfortunately, some of the best candidates for release on the 40-man are pitchers...some not young...that you're already being forced to use, or give multiple failed opportunities to...because there are no good alternatives.
  25. jkcarew
    Cabezas is my favorite prospect. The prospect of Cervezas with the Twins is glorious, especially on a day like today.
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